PHOTOVOLTAICS AS MAJOR ELECTRICITY SOURCE

Transcription

1 PHOTOVOLTAICS AS MAJOR ELECTRICITY SOURCE Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and University of Freiburg, Germany REPOWERING EUROPE PV European Technology & Innovation Platform Brussels, Belgium, May 18, 2016

2 Cornerstones for the Transformation of our Energy System to efficient use of finally 100% renewable energy Energy efficiency: buildings, production, transport Massive increase in renewable energies: photovoltaics, solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass... Fast development of the electric grid: transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional Small and large scale energy storage systems: electricity, hydrogen, methane, methanol, biogas, solar heat, hydro... Sustainable mobility as integral part of the energy system: electric mobility with batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells 2

3 Contribution of RES to Electricity Supply in Germany Historical Development 39 GW PV in 15a 41 GW Wind in 25a Electricity Feed-in Act: Jan March 2000 EEG: April 2000 EEG: August 2004 EEG: January % 1,000 roofs program: ,000 roofs program: % 3 Data: BMWi

4 Long-term utility-scale PV system price scenarios 4 Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende

5 Levelized Cost of Electricity Solar Power will soon be the Cheapest Form of Electricity in Many Regions of the World 5 Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende

6 Source: Solarbuzz

7 Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio c-si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product! material quality diffusion length base conductivity device quality passivation of surfaces low series resistance light confinement material quality cell structures PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell MWT: Metal Wrap Through IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back Contact Back Junction HJT: Hetero Junction Technology Industry Standard 14% PERC 15% BC- HJT IBC-BJ HJT MWT- PERC 16% module efficiency 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% device quality Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC

8 Advanced Cell Technologies Passivated Emitter and Rear PERC 1 Heterojunction on Intrinsic layer HIT 3 Passivating Layer Local Contacts Metal Wrap-Through MWT-PERC 2 Interdigitated Back Contact/Junction IBC-BJ 4 Lightly Doped Front Diffusion Texture+passivation Layer 8 Metal Wrap Through Contact Passivating Layer 1 Blakers et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 55, pp , Dross et al., Proc. 4th WCPEC, 2006, pp Sanyo/Panasonic 4 Sunpower Local Contacts

9 High-efficiency n-type PERL Cells Lab Results Excellent performance at cell level Only very thin ALD layer necessary V oc J sc FF η [mv] [ma/cm 2 ] [%] [%] Best cell * *Confirmed at Fraunhofer ISE CalLab ap = aperture area (= bus bar included in illuminated area) Benick et al., APL 92 (2008) Glunz et al., IEEE-PVSC (2010) 9

10 Advanced Cell Technologies Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) TOPCon enables: Excellent carrier-selectivity High tolerance to high-temperature processes Very high V oc and FF achieved due to Excellent surface passivation 1D carrier flow pattern in base V oc J sc FF η [mv] [ma/cm 2 ] [%] [%] Champion [*] n-base [*] FZ-Si, n-type, 2x2 cm², aperture area, confirmed by Fraunhofer ISE Callab 10 TOPCon: J 0,rear 7 fa/cm²

11 NexWafe: Kerfless Wafer Production for High-Efficiency PV Product: n-type wafer for high-efficiency solar cells ISE high-throughput ProConCVD to grow the epitaxial layer Wafer thickness 150 µm drop-in replacement for Czwafer Proof-of-concept verified on small scale, upscaling under way! Wafers available 2017! Removed epitaxial wafer Seed wafer re-usable 11

12 High-Efficiency III/V Based Triple-Junction Solar Cells 12 Slide: courtesy of F. Dimroth

13 FF [%] V oc [V] InP based 4-Junction Solar Cell Results on Engineered Substrate 13 GaInP 1.9 ev GaAs1.4 ev GaInAsP 1.0 ev GaInAs 0.7 ev Bonding InP engineered substrate h [%] One sun QuadFlash: h = 46.1 % C = 312 Single Flash QuadFlash lot29-02-x23y Concentration [suns]

14 Nanowire Array Solar Cells - may bring t o t he market single- Xt al I I I - V solar cells t o t he cost of Thin Films BUT - how will this be achieved? - Nanowire arrays f rom EPI TAXY - Nanowire arrays f rom AEROTAXY 14 Lars Samuelson, Lund, Sweden: Nanowire Array Solar Cells

15 PV-Production Capacity by Global Regions Will China dominate the 100 GW/a World Market 2020? Source: Navigant Consulting, Grafics: PSE AG

16 Source: Sarasin, Solar Study, Nov 2010 Growth rate World Market Outlook: Experts are Optimistic Example Sarasin Bank, November 2010 market forecast (2010): 30 GW p in 2014, 110 GW p in 2020 annual growth rate: in the range of 20 % and 30 % 2014: ca. 40 GW p, 1/3 above forecast! Total Newly new installed installations (right) (right scale) Annual growth rate (left(left) scale) 16

17 Module Capacity (GW) Excess Capacity (GW) Global PV Production Capacity and Installations Production Capacity Installations Excess Capacity Outlook for the development of supply and demand in the global PV market. Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG 17

18 Module Capacity (GW) Excess Capacity (GW) Global PV Production Capacity and Installations : 1st cycle of PV Production Capacity Installations Excess Capacity Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG 18

19 Module Capacity (GW) Excess Capacity (GW) Global PV Production Capacity and Installations From 2016: Start of 2nd cycle of PV! Production Capacity Installations Excess Capacity Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG 19

20 PV Market Growth: PV heading into the Terawatt Range! Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy In 2050 between and GW p PV will be installed! By 2015, less than 300 GW p have been installed! We are just at the beginning of the global growth curve! Source: IEA

21 How Will the Energy System Look Like in 2050? Electricity Mobility Heat Develop a model to simulate the transformation of the energy system 21

22 Optimization of Germany s future energy system based on hourly modeling Comprehensive analysis of the overall system Electricity generation, st orage and end-use Fuels (including biomass and synthetic fuels from RE) REM od-d Renewable Energy Model Deutschland Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014 Mobility (batteryelectric, hydrogen, conv. fuel mix) Heat (buildings, incl. st orage and heating networks) Processes in indust ry and tertiary sector 22 ISE

23 Sun Solar thermal GW 58 PV GW 85 5 Methanation 20 GW 55 0 Battery stor. 0 0 GWh Total quantity heating 0 Conversion 17 Losses Final energy 280 Mobility Water Wind Environmental heat Deep geothermal Hydro power 21 5 GW Onshore wind GW Offshore wind GW Electrolysis GW 0 H2-storage 0 0 GW 0 Bio-2-H2 0 GW Bio-2-CH4 0 0 GW 19 Battery veh GWh 6 Pumped stor GWh 0 H2-2-Fuel 0 GW % 29% Renewables Fossil 0 Conversion 0 Losses 108 Final energy % 0% Total quantity hydrogen Renewables Fossil Total quantity gas 128 Conversion 0 Losses 502 Final energy Electricity (baseload) Renewable energy sources Renewable raw materials Primary fossil energy carrier 19 Bio-2-Liquid 9 1 GW Consumption sector Hydrogen Heat Gas 23% 77% Raw biomass Liquid fuels Electricity Renewables Fossil 335 Raw biomass Total quantity raw 141 Biodiesel 85 biomass GW Biogas plant 244 Conversion 0 Losses Processing 91 2 GT 1 72 Final energy GW 17 GW Biogas Bio-2-el. 0 CCGT 0 100% Renewables 0% Fossil 52 storage 0 GW 0 GW 0 Total quantity liquid fuels Reforming 0 District heat Natural gas GW 50 GW 0 Conversion 126 CHP HP Losses 237 Final energy 237 Petroleum % Renewables 0 Oil PP 0 61% Fossil 0 GW 215 Electricity 0 Total quantity Import 98 electricity 37 Lignite PP 13 Lignite REMod-D Energy 3 GW 271 Conversion Losses 501 Final energy 0 68 Hard coal PP Hard coal system model 7 GW 106 Electricity 0 87% Renewables 46 Surplus Export 13% Fossil Uranium 0 Nuclear PP 0 0 GW Energy conversion Storage 375 Industry (fuel based process) 445 Heating (space heating and hot water) 384 CO2 emissions 1990 (reference year) 990 Mio t CO 2 CO2 emissions 196 Mio t CO 2 CO2 reduktion related to 1990: 80% 11

24 Electricity generation erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien PV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft Atom-KW Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW 147 GW 120 GW 32 GW 5 GW 0 GW 7 GW 3 GW 0 GW Elektrolyse 33 GWel H2-Speicher Batterien 4 9 Pump-Sp-KW 7 24 GWh 60 GWh Biomasse Sabatier 0 Methan-Sp. 0.0 GWgas 0 23 Brennstoffe 394 Erdgas Treibstoff Verkehr Photovoltaics GW el 0 6 Gasturbine 1 GW GuD-KW 3 GW 0 3 Onshore Wind KWK-GuD GWel 20 W-Speicher 173 GWh WP zentral GWth 40 Gebäude 59 Solarthermie GWth Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK Strombedarf gesamt (ohne Strom für Wärme und MIV) ungenutzter 120 Strom GW (Abregelung) 3 4 el 26 KWK-BHKW GWel Solarthermie 6 3 W-Speicher 15 W-Speicher 7 GWth 27 GWh Verkehr (ohne 173 GWh 5 Schienenverkehr/Strom) 8 WP zentral Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr 7 GWth Gas-WP Gebäude 82 Traktion Gebäude 15 GWth 41 H2-Bedarf Batterie-basierter Verkehr Solarthermie 13 Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe Traktion GWth Wärmenetze mit Strombedarf 55 BHKW-KWK Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr Traktion 55 Brennstoffe 220 el. WP Sole W-Speicher Traktion gesamt GWth 103 GWh % Wert % Medium and large size CHP Mini-BHKW 23 4 W-Speicher 6 GWel 46 GWh Solarthermie 8 45 Gebäude Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in 4 9 GWth 60 Industrie und Gewerbe gesamt 445 Solarthermie 3 22 Gebäude Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe 60 GW el 420 Solarthermie 25 4 GWth 26 Brennstoffe 420 Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW 4 6 Wärmebedarf gesamt 388 el. WP Luft W-Speicher Solarthermie 12 6 W-Speicher Raumheizung Warmwasser ungenutzt 19 GWth 87 GWh 14 GWth 56 GWh Solarthermie 7 39 Gebäude 73 Gaskessel Gebäude 0.6 Geothermie 6 Gebäude 8 GWth GWth 86 2 GWth 6 (connected to district heating) Offshore Wind 32 GW el 4 Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014 Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie 24

25 Scenario results hourly modeling Cumulative total cost No penalty on CO 2 emissions Stable fossil fuel prices #1-80 % CO 2, low rate building energy retrofit, electric vehicles dominant, coal until 2050 #2-80 % CO 2, low rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2050 #3-80 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2050 #4-80 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 #5-85 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 #6-90 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 Ref today s system; no change 25

26 Scenario results Cumulative total cost No penalty on CO 2 emissions Stable fossil fuel prices Cumulative cost of scenarios # 4 und # 5 approx bn higher than reference for the total time (about 0.8 % of German GDP) #4-80 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 #5-85 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 Ref today s system; no change 26

27 Scenario results Cumulative total cost Rising penalty cost for CO 2 emissions up to 100 per ton in 2030; then stable Price increase for fossil fuels 2 % p.a. #1-80 % CO 2, low rate building energy retrofit, electric vehicles dominant, coal until 2050 With CO 2 pricing, the total cost of business-as-usual till will be even #2-80 % CO 2, low rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2050 #3-80 % CO 2, high rate building higher than for the energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, transformed coal until 2050 system! #4-80 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 #5-85 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 #6-90 % CO 2, high rate building energy retrofit, mix of vehicles, coal until 2040 Ref today s system; no change 27

28 How Will the Energy System Look Like in 2050? Essential messages out of the model: The cost of the new Energy System is not higher than the cost for Electricity the current system! The cost for transformation is in the same order as maintaining the current system! Mobility Heat 28

29 Grid stability with growing amounts of fluctuating RE: Grid in Germany today more stable than in 2006! 29

30 Photovoltaics as Major Electricity Source Technology development combined with rapid growth of production volumes resulted in an unprecedented reduction in PV production cost and prices, by more than an order of magnitude in the last decades! The market is dominated by crystalline-si technologies; a multitude of further technology advances, allowing higher efficiencies at lower production costs, are ready to be implemented in c-si PV cells and modules. The cost of PV systems will decrease further, driven by technology developments, accompanied by supportive financial and regulatory environments. PV will grow soon into the Terawatt range, making it the cheapest form of electricity in many regions of the world 2-4 ct/kwh. The key for a stable energy system based on RE is to link the electricity, heat and transport sectors. The challenge for the EU will be to maintain the current technological leadership position, by keeping a stable market, combined with local PV production along the whole food chain, from research to deployment! 30

31 Thank you For your attention! 31