The Role of Solar Energy in our Future Energy System

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1 The Role of Solar Energy in our Future Energy System Eicke R. Weber, Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany General Lecture, University of Stellenbosch Stellenbosch, SA, January 24, 2014

Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute Topic:

students) 2 Business Areas: Energy - Efficient Buildings Silicon Photovoltaics (PV) III/V & Concentrator PV Dye-,

Integration, Grid Efficient Power Electronics Emission-free Mobility Storage Systems Energy System Analysis ISE

2 Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute Topic: Technologies for the Energy Transformation More than 1300 members of staff (incl. students) 2 Business Areas: Energy - Efficient Buildings Silicon Photovoltaics (PV) III/V & Concentrator PV Dye-, OPV & other novel PV PV Modules & Power Plants Solar Thermal Technologies Hydrogen, FC Technologies System Integration, Grid Efficient Power Electronics Emission-free Mobility Storage Systems Energy System Analysis ISE Freiburg CSP Halle (with IWM) THM Freiberg (with IISB) LSC Gelsenkirchen CSE Boston (Fh-USA) 15% basic financing 85% contract research 30% industry, 55% public 84 M budget ( 13)

Limited availability of fossil fuels Danger of catastrophic climate change Risk of nuclear disasters Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable

3 A radical transformation of our energy system is needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3 rd Industrial Revolution! The world has to transform to living in a sustainable way! Limited availability of fossil fuels Danger of catastrophic climate change Risk of nuclear disasters Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable regions Economic advantages get noticable Important aspects to take into account: The world is getting warmer The transformation needs time and money Technological development Capacity building Investments in infrastructure Industrialized countries and countries with high consumption per capita must lead! 3

4 Cornerstones for the transformation of our energy system Energy Efficiency: Buildings, Production, Transport Massive increase renewable energies Photovoltaics, Solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass... Fast development of the electric grid Transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional Small and large scale energy storage systems Electricity, Hydrogen, Methane, Biogas, Solar Heat Mobility as integral part of the energy system Electric mobility by means of batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells 4

Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply till 2050 in Germany Key Features: Strong decrease of heat demand from buildings (energy renovations, zero-energy houses Increase of combined-cycle

5 Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply till 2050 in Germany Key Features: Strong decrease of heat demand from buildings (energy renovations, zero-energy houses Increase of combined-cycle heat/power plants Thermal storage for heating and cooling Coupling of electricity grid and gas pipelines through production of regenerative hydrogen and methan Introduction of e-mobility with battery- and fuel cell powered cars Use of liquid biofuels, especially for heavy trucks and air traffic 5

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources Development in Germany 1990 2012 Year 2012 Total* 22.9% 136.

6 Electricity generation from renewable energy sources Development in Germany Year 2012 Total* 22.9% TWh PV 4.7% 28.0 TWh 32.6 GW Bio 6.9% 40.9 TWh Wind 7.7% 46.0 TWh 31.3 GW Hydro 3.6% 21.2 TWh 6 * Brutto electricity demand

7 World Energy Resources (1Twy = 8760 TWhr) 7 Source: R. Perez et al.

8 PV Production Development by Technology Production 2011 (MWp) Thin film 3,204 Ribbon-Si 120 Multi-Si 10,336 Mono-Si 9,114 8 Source: Navigant Consulting Design: PSE AG 2012

9 Module Price [inflation adjusted / Wp] 2011 Price Learning Curve (all c-si PV Technologies) 1980 Learning Rate: With each doubling of cumulative production, price went down by 20%! Cost of PV electricity 2013: ca. 13 ct/kwh in Germany < 6-8 $ct/kwh in sun-rich countries 9 1 0,01 0, Cumulat ed Product ion [GWp] 2013: Ready-installed rooftop system in Germany: down to 1.20 /Watt! Source: Navigant Consulting; EuPD Module price (since 2006) Design: PSE AG 2012

10 Average Price for Rooftop PV Installations in Germany (10kWp - 100kWp) Elecricity Cost of /kwh! 10 Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE AG 2013

11 Key Elements to Drive Down Cost for PV Manufacturing Cost/ Watt (a.u.) Technology Improvement High Throughput Process Tools Process Equipment & Technology Diluted Overhead Costs Scaling Higher Area Utilization Optimized Facilities Recycling and Reuse of Chemicals Vertical Integration Benchmarking Value Engineering Industrial Engineering Integrated PV Fab 0.0 Key Elements to drive costs down Source: M+W group, Dr. Klaus Eberhardt, European PV Technology Platform, September

12 Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio Material quality 12 Diffusion length Base conductivity Device quality Passivation of surfaces Low series resistance Light confinement Cell Structures Materi al quality PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell MWT: Metal Wrap Through IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back Contact Back Junction Industry Standard 14% HJT IBC-BJ MWT- PERC PERC 15% HJT: Hetero Junction Technology Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC % BC- Module efficiency 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% Devic e quality

13 High-efficiency n-type PERL Cells Lab Results Excellent performance at cell level Only very thin ALD layer necessary V oc J sc FF η [mv] [ma/cm 2 ] [%] [%] Best cell * *Confirmed at Fraunhofer ISE CalLab ap = aperture area (= bus bar included in illuminated area) 13 Benick et al., APL 92 (2008) Glunz et al., IEEE-PVSC (2010)

14 Spectral irradiance [W/m The efficiency limit for a single-material PV Cell For Silicon: (AM1.5g, 1000 W/m², 25 C) h max, theo = 28 % Lab cell = 24 % Si 2 µm] Thermalization losses Energy that can be used by a Si solar cell Transmission losses Wavelength [nm] AM1.5 spectrum Si (1.12 ev) 14

15 The benefit of multi-junction solar cells For triple-junction concentrator cells: h max, theo = 61 % (1000xAM1.5d, 1000 W/m²) Lab. cell = 40.8 % 230xAM1.5d, 1000 W/m²) Ge GaInP GaInAs 2 µm] Spectral irradiance [W/m Wavelength [nm] AM1.5 spectrum GaInP (1.70 ev) GaInAs (1.18 ev) Ge (0.67 ev) 15

with SOITEC, Cea-Leti, HZB 90 85 80 75 lot12-01-x17y04 45 40 h max =

16 V OC [V] Eff. [%] FF [%] World Record 44.7 % Efficiency Solar Cell Wafer-Bonded, 4-Junction Technology Fh-ISE with SOITEC, Cea-Leti, HZB lot12-01-x17y h max = 44.7 C= Concentration [x, AM1.5d, ASTM G173-03, 1000 W/m²] 16

17 III/V Multijunction cells are used in Concentrated PV: CPV : SOITEC SOLAR builds a 300 MW CPV installation, using a new 150 MW p /yr factory near San Diego, CA!

18 Growth rate World market outlook: experts are optimistic Example Bank Sarasin, Nov 2010 Market forecast: 30 GW p in 2014, 110 GW p in 2020 Annual growth rate: in the range of 20% and 30% 2013: GW p, far above forecast! 18 Source: Sarasin, Solar Strudy, Nov 2010 Newly installed (right) Annual growth rate (left)

19 IEA Outlook on PV production world-wide Rapidly declining cost of PV generated electricity open up new market opportunities Current 30GW p /a market will increase to a 100+ GW p /a market in 2020; for 2050 more than 3000 GW p of globally installed PV capacity is expected Strong increase necessitates construction of GW-scale, highly automatic PV production plants IMEC

20 00:00:00 00:30:00 01:00:00 01:30:00 02:00:00 02:30:00 03:00:00 03:30:00 04:00:00 04:30:00 05:00:00 05:30:00 06:00:00 06:30:00 07:00:00 07:30:00 08:00:00 08:30:00 09:00:00 09:30:00 10:00:00 10:30:00 11:00:00 11:30:00 12:00:00 12:30:00 13:00:00 13:30:00 14:00:00 14:30:00 15:00:00 15:30:00 16:00:00 16:30:00 17:00:00 17:30:00 18:00:00 18:30:00 19:00:00 19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 23:30:00 in kw Daily Electricity Consumption Juli Fab Dienstag, den Graph Courtesy Ralf Hofmann, KACO Uhrzeit 20 KACO new energy

00:00:00 00:30:00 01:00:00 01:30:00 02:00:00 02:30:00 03:00:00 03:30:00 04:00:00 04:30:00 05:00:00 05:30:00 06:00:00 06:30:00 07:00:00 07:30:00 08:00:00 08:30:00 09:00:00 09:30:00 10:00:00 10:30:00

21 00:00:00 00:30:00 01:00:00 01:30:00 02:00:00 02:30:00 03:00:00 03:30:00 04:00:00 04:30:00 05:00:00 05:30:00 06:00:00 06:30:00 07:00:00 07:30:00 08:00:00 08:30:00 09:00:00 09:30:00 10:00:00 10:30:00 11:00:00 01:30:00 12:00:00 12:30:00 13:00:00 13:30:00 14:00:00 14:30:00 15:00:00 15:30:00 16:00:00 16:30:00 17:00:00 17:30:00 18:00:00 18:30:00 19:00:00 19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 23:30:00 In kw Daily Electricity Consumption August Fab 5 with 2 MW PV System 140 Dienstag, den Uhrzeiten Graph Courtesy Ralf Hofmann, KACO 21 KACO new energy

22 The Gap between global PV Production Capacity and Sales Produktionskapazitäten is Closing! und Nachfrage nähern sich an [GW] 80 Production Produktionskapazitäten Capacity 70 PV Nachfrage Sales ? * 2014* 2015* 2016* *vorläufig/geschätzt Estimated China will den Aufbau von Produktionskapazitäten bremsen Non-competitive PV fabrication lines are closing worldwide Demand Nachfrage > 50 >50 GW GW 2015 könnte might result schon in 2015 shortage zu Engpässen of PV modules! führen Slide Quellen: courtesy EPIA, JRC, Tobias Mercom, Kelm, isuppli, ZSW; data BNEF, from IEA, EPIA, Photon, Mercom, SW&W, isupply, Bloomberg, BNEF, Solarbuzz IEA, Photon, und eigene SW&W, Schätzungen Bloomberg, Solarbuzz, and own estimates

23 23

Solar Thermal System Typology Driving temperature Low (60-90 C) Medium (80-110 C) High

24 Solar Thermal System Typology Driving temperature Low (60-90 C) Medium ( C) High ( C) 24 Collector type System type Open cycle: direct air treatment Closed cycle: high temperature cooling system (e.g. chilled ceiling) Closed cycle: chilled water for cooling and dehumidification Closed cycle: refrigeration, airconditioning with ice storage Closed cycle: double-effect system with high overall efficiency Closed cycle: system with high temperature lift (e.g. ice production with air-cooled cooling tower)

25 Solar Thermal Power Plants Concentrating Mirror Receiver Heat Transport Tracking Systems 25

26 Concentrated Solar (Thermal) Power CSP Technologies Parabolic Mirrors Fresnel Mirrors Stirling Dish Solar Tower (Fresnel) C ~ commercial C ~ demo C ~ demo C ~ comm. demo h a ~ 12%-14% h a ~10%-12% h a ~ 14%-18% h a ~ 10%-15% LEC 2020 ~ 5ct/kWh LEC 2020 ~ 5ct/kWh LEC 2020 ~? LEC 2020 ~ 5ct/kWh 26

27 27

28 Solar thermal power plants may include storage! Components: Solar collector field Tubing and heat exchanger Storage optional Power plant Cooling - wet- or dry cooling Solarmillenium 28

29 ISE Model of a future German Energy System Combining Electricity, Gas and Heat * Near-100% 24/7/365 reliable renewable energy from wind, sun, hydro & biomass at minimum total cost! PV: 220 GW, 214 TWh photovoltaic battery storage pumped storage pow er plant electrical load excess electricity export Wind: 253 GW, 596 TWh w ind onshore w ind offshore pow erto-gas biomass methane storage combined cycle gas turbine CHP central electrical heat pump solar heat heat stoarge, central heat storage electricity heat load CHP + solar, central heat load, total heat load Hydro 5 GW, 21 TWh hydro pow er fossil solar heat central micro-chp solar heat gas heat pump heat storage el. HP + solar heat load micro CHP + solar heat load gas-hp + solar heat Biomass: 50 TWh import electricity solar heat storage excess heat Energy Efficiency of Buildings: - 50% Maximum Demand: 132 GW Maximum Generation: 321 GW Storage! Total Cost: same as 2012! 29 Source: H. Henning, A. Palzer, Fraunhofer ISE 2012 *Without Transport, Import-Export!

30 Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU 30

The Road Towards the Energy Transformation: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies We should describe progress on this road by an index: ETI Deutschland auf dem Weg in ein neues Energiezeitalter

31 The Road Towards the Energy Transformation: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies We should describe progress on this road by an index: ETI Deutschland auf dem Weg in ein neues Energiezeitalter Energieeffizienz BIP/PEV (Mio.! 2010 / PJ) Zeitalter der Energieeffizienz Energiekonzept DEU 1990 DEU DEU 1973 DEU 1950 Zeitalter der Erneuerbaren Anteil Erneuerbare am Bruttostromverbrauch (Prozent) BMWi, IIIC2 31 Graph: K. Kübler, BMWi, FVEE 2011

32 Efficiency = GDP / PED [US$2011/kWh] Eff = 0,99 US$/kWh Energy Transformation Index ETI - Definition RE = 10% Example Germany Values from 2011 ETI = Normalized length of the vector in the Eff / RE diagram Eff = Efficiency = GDP/PED [US-$ 2011 /kwh] Eff n = Eff / 2 $/kwh GDP = Gross Domestic Product [$ 2011 ] PED = Primary Energy Demand [kwh] RE = Share of Renewable Energy [0.. 1] (1 means 100%) ETI = 100 * (Eff n + RE)/2 [ ] ETI: = average of Eff n and RE! % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Share of Renewable Energy in PED [%]

33 Efficiency = GDP / PED [US$2013/kWh] Energy Transformation Index ETI for different countries JAP ITA GER 30 ARE 11 SAU 8 IRL 39 EU USA 18 MEX 18 CHN 11 CHE 65 CAN 24 DNK 51 AUT 40 SWE 40 IND 19 IDN 25 BRA ISL 47 ETI max 100 ARE United Arab Emirates AUT Austria BRA Brazil CAN Canada CHE Switzerland CHN China DNK Denmark EU-27 European Union GER Germany IDN Indonesia IND India ITA Italy IRL Ireland ISL Iceland JAP Japan MEX Mexico SAU Saudi Arabia SWE Sweden USA United States % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Share of Renewable Energy on Primary Energy Demand [%] Data: World Bank / IEA, German Ministry for Economy

34 Efficiency = GDP / PED [USD2013/kWh] Development of ETI for selected countries KOR GB 30 JAP 30 AUS 27 USA 18 FRA 27 GER ESP EU MEX 18 SA 11 CHN 11 ITA 34 CAN 24 Germany USA China EU-27 Sweden Canada Mexico South Korea Japan Italy Great Britain France Australia South Africa India Spain Diagonale Diagonale Diagonale 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Data: Diagonale World Bank / Share of Renewable Energy on PED [%] German Ministry for Economy IND 19 SWE 40 Optimaler Pfad

35 ETI-Ranking for 47 countries Switzerland +124% Denmark +155% Iceland +18% Nigeria +12% Sweden +74% Austria +67% Ireland +255% Brazil* +30% Colombia +75% Italy +79% Portugal +65% Luxembourg +300% Spain +94% Japan +76% Great Britain +173% Germany +173% Finland +45% Chile +47% Greece +125% France +80% Australia +145% Israel +136% Netherlands +150% 35 Indonesia -4% EU-27* +108% Pakistan -8% Fraunhofer Canada ISE % Slovenia +100% Finland +45% Chile +47% Greece +125% France +80% Australia +145% Israel +136% Netherlands +150% Indonesia -4% EU-27* +108% Pakistan -8% Canada +71% Slovenia +100% Belgium +110% Turkey +33% India -21% USA +100% Mexico +64% Thailand -27% Slovakia +700% Hungary +300% Argentina +60% Venezuela +114% Poland +650% Czech Republic +367% UAE +120% South Africa* +38% China -15% South Korea +43% Saudi Arabia +100% Russia +133% Iran +50% and growth between 1990 and 2011 (percentage) ETI (*2010) 8 7 ETI

36 The Role of Solar Energy in our Future Energy System A near-100% renewable energy system is possible, at similar cost as today s energy supply no more need for imported fuels, almost all is spent domestically PV will be one of two main pillars with drastically reduced prices of /Watt installed LCOE of PV electricity is below 10 ct/kwh, will go down further Small, distributed battery systems combined with large storage systems and grid interconnection will guarantee secure power supply The use of solar thermal energy harvestingen makes especially sense in sun-rich countries; low-t ST for warm water, CS(T)P with storage for electricity CSP without storage is not longer cost-competitive compared with PV In regions with high DNI, CPV is most attractive as it offers the maximum number of hours per day Progress in the energy transformation process will be easily monitored by our new ISE / ISES ETI 36

37 Thank you for your Attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Eicke R. Weber with Ralf Preu, Harry Wirth, Klaus Kiefer 37

38 ärtner' 38

THE ROLE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN OUR FUTURE RENEWABLES-BASED ENERGY SYSTEM

THE ROLE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN OUR FUTURE RENEWABLES-BASED ENERGY SYSTEM Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and University of Freiburg, Germany Fraunhofer ISE/ Foto: Guido Kirsch