Plans for xgw manufacturing in Europe

Transcription

1 Plans for xgw manufacturing in Europe Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert Ludwigs University, Freiburg EU PV Platform, Brussels, June 24, 2014

2 Module Price [inflation adjusted / Wp] 2011 PV learning curve (all c-si PV technologies) Module price 2011 /W p Increase: With each doubling of the globallly installed capacity the module price went down by 20%! : Well below 1 /W p! 2010 Source: Navigant Consulting; 1 0,01 0, EuPD Module price (since 2006); Design: PSE AG Cumulated Product production [GWp] p ]

3 Average price of rooftop installations in Germany (10kWp - 100kWp) modules Electricity production costs /kwh BOS incl. inverter Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE AG

4 World market outlook: Experts are optimistic Example Bank Sarasin, Nov. 2010

5 The interest in Photovoltaics is increasing worldwide Cumulated global capacity, until end 2013 ca. 140 GW installed In five years the globally installed capacity has increased more than tenfold! 5 Quelle: EPIA, Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics , May 2013

6 Dangerous crisis also for PV production equipment manufacturers

7 The Gap between global PV Production Capacity and Sales Produktionskapazitäten is Closing! und Nachfrage nähern sich an [GW] Produktionskapazitäten Production Capacity capacity PV Nachfrage Demand Sales * 2014* 2015* 2016* *vorläufig/geschätzt Estimated China will den Aufbau von Produktionskapazitäten bremsen Non-competitive PV fabrication lines are closing worldwide Demand Nachfrage > 50 >50 GW GW 2015 könnte might result schon in 2015 shortage zu Engpässen of PV modules! führen Slide Quellen: courtesy EPIA, JRC, Tobias Mercom, Kelm, isuppli, ZSW; data BNEF, from IEA, EPIA, Photon, Mercom, SW&W, isupply, Bloomberg, BNEF, Solarbuzz IEA, Photon, und eigene SW&W, Schätzungen Bloomberg, Solarbuzz, and own estimates?

8 Module [GWp/a] Analysis PV Market Capacity / Production 2017 (Forecast: IHS) Overcapacity % Quelle: IHS; Graph: PSE AG

9 Gesamtkosten Modul [ Ct./Wp] 42,4 40,7 39,1 38,3 37,7 37,2 50,1 48,0 46,0 44,9 44,1 43,6 53,1 50,9 48,9 47,7 47,0 46,4 Results X-GW of module production cost analysis for Baden-Württemberg (Fraunhofer ISE + IPA 2013) ,9 % Modulkosten einer X-GW Fabrik -12,6 % Akt. Spotmarktpreis c-si: China: 56 ct/wp Deutschland: 78 ct/wp Quelle: c-si PERC Modul c-si BSK Modul 20 CIGS Modul 10 0 c-si c-si CIGS PERC BSK c-si c-si CIGS PERC BSK c-si c-si CIGS PERC BSK c-si c-si CIGS PERC BSK c-si c-si CIGS PERC BSK c-si c-si CIGS PERC BSK 0.5 GWp/a 1 GWp/a 2 GWp/a 3 GWp/a 4 GWp/a 5 GWp/a Cost reduction due to material and equipment cost effects Additional potentials due to scale effects in the production not included

10 LCOE [ Ct./kWh] Results X-GW production cost analysis for BaWü: LCOE dependence on Fab size LCOE am Standort Freiburg (Horizontale Globalstrahlung 1100 kwh/m²*a) 10,0 9,66 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 9,29 8,65 8,48 9,44 9,08 8,49 8,29 9,24 8,88 8,33 8,11 9,13 9,05 8,99 8,78 8,70 8,65 8,25 8,19 8,15 8,01 7,94 7,89 c-si PERC c-si BSK monofacial CIGS c-si BSK bifacial 7,5 0,5 GWp 1,0 GWp 2,0 GWp 3,0 GWp 4,0 GWp 5,0 GWp

11 Goodrich 2013: Cost comparison USA / China

12 The Challenge BASIC CONDITIONS 1. Cell technology of the next generation 2. Highly automated integrated production 3. High production volume > 1GW p DYNAMICS Be ready when new capacities are needed: 2017/18 Maintain high innovation speed THINK IN SYSTEMS Optimise the use of photovoltaics in energy and building systems Optimise the production system across the value chain and production networks Translate high European system competence in added value

13 u xgwp: Research institutes and industry partners react to the PV crisis Crisis of the solar industry: Missing manufacturing of cells and modules now also threatens research and suppliers in Europe Leading research institutes and industrial partners take the initiative to build a European Gigawatt Fab with new technology CEA-INES: National Solar Research Institute of CEA Fraunhofer ISE: largest solar research institute in Europe CSEM & EPFL: Microtechnology Centre and Federal Technology Institute

14 xgwp European Gigawatt Fab Objectives Establishing a Gigawatt-size PHOTOVOLTAIC cell and module factory with next generation technology in Europe, full capacity 2017/2018 Proving industrial production readiness with a 100MW demonstration line, later to be used as pilot line for further development Long-term close cooperation of leading companis and research institutes 2014: company, 2015: 0,1 GW p demo line, 2018: 1 GW p fab Progress beyond the state-of-the-art Combining advanced Si-based cell with innovative contacting and other technologies in automated, lean production processes in GW-scale Achieving high efficiency cells (22 25%) at low prices Favourable characteristics leading to unprecedented low electricity generation costs Consistent further cost reduction through continuing innovation (roadmap) 14

15 VISION: European PV system industry as column of European energy transformation and competitiveness PV: component of smart systems Innovation in industrial network Close partners downstream & upstream New business models xgwp Innovation Political innovation Business model innovation European cooperation Motor: Germany & France European innovation network leading research institutes directly involved Permanent high level of innovation Cheaper Solar Power Higher efficiency Lower costs Better characteristics Not yet disclosed Entrepreneurial innovation Product innovation Process innovation Technical innovation Less material needed Less process steps Higher automation Higher quality VISION: Disruptive PV with next technology generation Combining experiences: PV silicon technology, microeletronics, nanotech

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17 Thank you for your attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Eicke R. Weber with Ruggero Schleicher-Tappeser