World Energy Prospects to 2050

Transcription

1 World Energy Prospects to 2050 Mr. Bo Diczfalusy Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology International Energy Agency Clean Coal Day in Japan 2012 International Symposium Tokyo, 4 September 2012

2 World energy prospects to 2050 Content of presentation: Introduction to ETP2012 Coal technologies Carbon capture and storage

3 ETP 2012 Choice of 3 Futures 2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions The 2 C 2 C Scenario 4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency The 4 C 4 C Scenario 6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results The 6 C 6 C Scenario

4 Sustainable future still in reach Are we on track to reach a clean energy future? Can we get on track? Is a clean energy transition urgent? NO YES YES

5 Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency i the hidden fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

6 A smart, sustainable energy system Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources H vehicle 2 Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system.

7 Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Cleaner coal power Nuclear power CCS in power Renewable power CCS in industry Buildings Industry Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track Fuel economy Electric vehicles Biofuels for transport

8 Low-carbon electricity: a clean core TWh DS Other Wind Solar Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste Oil Gas with CCS Gas Coal with CCS 0 Coal Renewables will generate more than half the world s electricity in the 2DS.

9 Natural gas: a transitional fuel Power Generation n from Nat tural Gas TW Wh DS OECD China India Other non-oecd Around 2030, natural gas becomes high carbon.

10 The CCS infant must grow quickly Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 t CO 2 Mt CO 2 M A projected 123 GtCO 2 captured between een 2015 and 2050, the majority from power generation; in some regions, however, CO 2 captured from industrial applications dominates. Note: Capture rates in MtCO 2 /year

11 Industry must become more efficient 12 6DS 10 Other industries O 2 GtCO 8 Chemicals and petrochemicals 6 Aluminium 4 Pulp and paper Iron and steel Cement Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.

12 Clean energy investment pays off ings Fuel savi Total T savings Additional Additional investment investment Power Power With Industry price effect Transport Industry Without price effect Residential Transport Commercial Undiscounted 3% 10% Fuel savings Residential Biomass Coal Commercial Oil Gas USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

13 World energy prospects to 2050 Content of presentation: Introduction to ETP2012 Coal technologies Carbon capture and storage

14 Fossil fuels dominate energy demand y demand (EJ) ary energy Prima Efficiency improvement reduces specific fuel consumption and also reduces specific pollutant emissions.

15 Non-fossil power generation Electr ricity gen neration ( TWh) Non-hydro renewables Hydro Nuclear Sh hare of el lectricity (%) Despite an increasing contribution tion across two decades, the share of non-fossil generation has failed to keep pace with the growth in generation from fossil fuels

16 The size of the challenge is clear Primary energy dem mand for coal (Mtce e) Medium-term coal market report 6 DS 4 DS 2 DS Near-term projections are not consistent with a low-carbon scenario

17 Reducing emissions from coal is critical (1) Efficiency i (2) Reduce non-ghg (3) Reduce improvement emissions CO 2 emissions Efficiency improvement reduces specific fuel consumption and also reduces specific pollutant emissions.

18 Advanced technology is essential Ma aximum steam tem mperatur re ( C ) Ultra-supercritical Supercritical Subcritical Advanced-USC 700 o C Demonstrations are being planned from Ultra-supercritical plants are currently operated in various countries, particularly China.

19 The challenge of advanced USC Boiler tube/pipe C C 700 C/ 30-35MPa Steam turbine rotor/shaft Boiler Steam turbine ~ Generator Nickel-based super-alloys Ferrite/Austenitic alloys Nickel-based super-alloys will enable plant components to withstand the temperatures to 700ºC and beyond.

20 World energy prospects to 2050 Content of presentation: Introduction to ETP2012 Coal technologies Carbon capture and storage

21 CCS is deployed globally 2DS In the near term, the largest amount of CO 2 is captured in OECD countries; by 2050, CO 2 capture in non-oecd countries dominates.

22 CCS is applied in power and industry Note: Capture rates in MtCO 2 /year The majority of CO 2 is captured from power generation globally, but in some regions CO 2 captured from industrial applications dominates.

23 Where is CO 2 storage needed? Note: Mass captured in GtCO 2 Between 2015 and 2050, 123 gigatonnes of CO 2 are captured that need to be transported to suitable sites and stored safely and effectively. Storage sites will need to be developed all around the world.

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