Flood hazard under the scenario of climate change: Case Jakarta coastal area

Transcription

1 Flood hazard under the scenario of climate change: Case Jakarta coastal area Muh Aris Marfai, Philip Ward, Christiaan Elings, Rob bonte, Jeroen Aerts, Poerbandono, Fajar Yulianto, Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, Indonesia, as an archipelago country, has more than 17,500 islands and Km of shoreline The country has 2 million Km2 of land and 220 million inhabitants Coastal areas are facing with natural hazards such as erosion-sedimentation, subsidence, flooding, tsunami, etc The impact of hazard is predicted to be even more severe with scenario of climate change and sea level rise

2 Jakarta with about Km 2 has more than 9.3 million inhabitants The city has some low laying area with 40 % ground elevation below high tide sea level. That is one reason why up to the recent time, flooding is still the major problem of this city

3 Date Damage and risk due to flooding 1621, 1654, 1876 No recorded data 9 January 1932 Several houses in Dabang and Thamrin Streets were inundated 1 February 1976 More than people were evacuated 19 January 1977 About people were evacuated 8 January 1984 About 291 neighborhood areas with inhabitants were inundated 13 February families were evacuated 13 January houses and 2640 inhabitants were inundated 26 January 1999 Flash flood occurred in Tangerang, Bekasi and with 6 people died and people were evacuated. 29 January 2002 Big flood occurred in, Tangerang, and Bekasi caused 2 people died and people were evacuated 2-4 February inhabitants have been evacuated. 60% of was inundated February 2008 Flood occurred in and Tangerang houses were inundated and 1550 people were evacuated. Source: Source:

4 Impact on landuse and community Source:

5 Country SLR scenario (cm) Land loss Km 2 % Europe The Netherlands Germany Poland West Africa Senegal Nigeria Benin Asia Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Vietnam Nicholls and Mimura (1998).This book shows the different aspects of climate adaptation and is a joint initiative of the Cities of Rotterdam, New York and Jakarta. In this regard, each city faces different challenges; Aerts J, Bowman M, Dircke P, Major D, and Marfai MA (2009) Connecting delta cities, about global coastal cities and future chalanges. VU University Press, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

6 Objective: Understanding the distribution patterns of coastal flooding in Jakarta under future scenarios of physical and socioeconomic change; Identifying the land use effected by coastal flooding in Jakarta coastal area; Assessing the potential economic losses under the different flood hazard scenarios Identifying the adaptation and mitigation strategy of coastal flood hazard in Jakarta

7 Total area and population districts in North Jakarta (2007) N o District Area (Ha) Population (people) 1 Penjaringan 3, ,666 2 Pademangan ,076 3 Tanjung Priok 2, ,283 4 Koja 1, ,367 5 Kelapa Gading 1, ,389 6 Cilincing 4, ,245 Total 13,705 1,179,026 Source: Scenario of inundation No Scenarios Sea Level Rise (in meter) 1 Regional sea level rise (Indonesia) after Nicholls and Mimura Regional sea level rise under enhanced land subsidence 3 S100 (1 in 100 year) (Diva Data and Nicholls et al 2008) 4 S1000 (1 in 1000 year) (Diva Data and Nicholls et al 2008) 5 Scenario in Year 2070s under enhanced sea level rise (Formula from Nicholls et al. 2008)

8 Expected future DEM with scenario of subsidence

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12 Land use type or category Uniform settlement Un-uniform settlement Open area Industrial Service dept. Bare land cemetery Agriculture Business office Road Fishpond Vulnerability value in flood depth 1.5 meter Per class of surface elevation < 25 cm cm cm cm

13 Vulnerability Risk N u Type of land use Land use affected by inundation per water depth scenario (in Ha) 60 cm 120 cm cm 188 cm cm 1 Uniform settlement Un-uniform settlement Business area Agriculture area Bare land, beach, and yard area Fishpond area Total estimation

14 Damage Nu 1 2 Type of land use Uniform settlement Un-uniform settlement Value in thousand EUR/Ha Cost damage estimation from different inundation model (in Million EUR) 60 cm 120 cm cm 188 cm cm Business area Agriculture area Bare land, beach, and yard area Fishpond area Total estimation Risk

15 Nu Proposed Programs Coastal hazard assessment 1 Flood mapping under enhanced sea level rise and land subsidence 2 vulnerability and risk assessment using prediction of the future asset 3 Monitoring shoreline change and prediction model of the coastal dynamic 4 Coastal environmental impact assessment and monitoring 5 Creating coastal GIS-data for updating hazard information 6 Establishing early warning system on the coastal area 7 Study of the social cultural aspect of the coastal community, and community capacity to coastal hazards. Nu Proposed Programs Policy and regulations 8 Integrate the climate change policy and hazard mitigation policy to the short, medium and long term national and regional development planning 9 Strengthening local participation to coastal flood mitigation including public awareness system 10 Multi-stakeholders (private, local community, international organization, etc) involvement on the coastal flood management 11 Accelerating the setting up of the Provincial and District/City board for disaster management (BPBD). 12 Improving knowledge and experiences for stakeholders related hazard 13 Improving governmental financial and budget allocation for coastal flood management 14 Establishing and implementing the regulation for monitoring groundwater extraction 15 Establishing regulation and permit requirement for residential and building construction 16 Establishing regulation for relief and aids distribution

16 Nu Proposed Programs Planning and construction 17 Coastal land use planning on the district scale, take into account the sea level rise 18 Maintenance and improvement of the structural measures 19 Improvement of the infrastructure including the highway infrastructure 20 Planning and improvement the maintenance of the river and channel system 21 Land use management planning on the upper part of Jakarta, especially on the Ciliwung and other main rivers catchment

17 Adaptation Strategy

18 The research was supported by Dutch Research Programme Knowledge for Climate, the Connecting Delta Cities Network, and a grant from the KNAW (Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences) Mobility Programme (09-MP-10) Thank you very much