Gerrit-Jan Knaap Inforum Outlook Conference December 10, 2015 College Park, MD

Transcription

1 Gerrit-Jan Knaap Inforum Outlook Conference December 10, 2015 College Park, MD

2 PRESTO PRESTO is an integrated modeling project designed to identify policies that lead to a more sustainable Baltimore-Washington region. Funders include: The Town Creek Foundation, The Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, European Union, and Various grants from state and federal agencies.

3 The Baltimore-Washington Modeling Region

4 Scenario Drivers Economic Assumptions The PRESTO Modeling Framework Scenario Models Inforum-National Econometric Model Demographic, Societal, Equity Assumptions Technological Assumptions Political Assumptions Transportation - MSTM Travel Demand Model Mobile Emissions Model Building Emissions and Energy Model Growth SILO Land Use Model Air Quality Model Chesapeake Bay Land Cover Model Environmental Assumptions Public Health Model Water Quality Model

5 Metropolitan Area Council of Governments Baltimore Metropolitan Council Woods and Pool Tommy Hammer/Inforum

6 Growth Certain; Growth Rate Uncertain Total Population by Metro Area: Baltimore-Washington Region Total Population 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - DC W & P MWCOG Hammer Baltimore W & P BMC Hammer Woods and Poole, MWCOG, BMC, Hammer Year

7 Forecasts Disagree on Growth in Core, Particularly Washington DC Total Population: Washington DC 900,000 Total Population 800, , , , , , , ,000 - Historic Woods and Poole MWCOG UVA US Census (2002) Hammer Woods and Poole, UVA, US Census, MWCOG, Hammer Year

8 Forecast Disagree Less on Growth in Baltimore Total Population: Baltimore City 1,000, , , ,000 Total Population 800, , , ,000 Historic Woods and Pool MDP BMC Hammer 600, , , Year Woods and Poole, MDP, BMC, Hammer

9 Based on the Constrained Long-Range Plans developed by the Baltimore and Washington Metropolitan Planning Organizations and other government-sanctioned forecasts.

10 PRESTO Baseline Projects Steady Job, Household, Population Growth 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 Population Projected Pop. Employment Projected Emp. Households Projected HH. 2,000,000 1,000, Year Source: US Census, BLS, CLRP

11 Welcome the Multicultural Suburbs Total Population by Race & Sub-Region: Baltimore-Washington Region 6,000,000 5,000,000 Total Population 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Hispanic or Latino Asian American Black (Non- Hispanic) White (Non- Hispanic) 0 Year Woods and Poole

12 Single Family Homes Remain Dominant Housing Units 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Single Family, Detatched Estimated Single Family, Detatched Single Family, Attached Estimated Single Family, Attached Multifamily, 2-4 Units Estimated Multifamily, 2-4 Units Multifamily, 5+ Units Estimated Multifamily, 5+ Units Mobile Homes Estimated Mobile Homes Year Source: SILO Model

13 Source: CLRP New Households Locate Primarily Within Priority Funding Areas

14 Source: CLRP Employment Grows In and Near Job Centers

15 Source: NCSG Opp. Map Growth Occurs in All Areas of Opportunity

16 Source: MSTM Transit Use Increases Near Red and Purple Lines

17 Source: MSTM Congestion Worsens Almost Everywhere

18 Base Line Indicators 60.0% Baseline Scenario Indicators 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0%

19 Developed with Scientific Advisory Groups

20 The Four Scenarios Fossil Fuel Prices Tech. Impact Gov. Inter. Last Call at the Oasis High Low High Blue Planet High High Medium Ashes and Diamonds Low Low Low Revenge of the Nerds Low High Medium

21 Key Parameter Inputs Fuel Prices Autonomous Vehicles Technology Green Technology Development Capacity Emp. Location Road and Rail Inf. Road Capacity Value of access Zero Emission Vehicle Adoption Building Efficiency Priority Funding Area Transit Stops Small + Mid Sized Towns Green Inf. Blue Planet 1.5 base base base 95% of new vehicles in 2040 Not yet implemented 2x 4x base 0 in tier 1,2 priority areas 2x in small towns 310 Miles New Rail Lines Revenge of the Nerds 1/3 base 1.5 base ½ base 35% of new vehicles in 2040 Not yet implemented base base 2x base Pushed toward transit accessible areas base

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24 Revenge of the Nerds and Blue Planet Indicators Indicator Change from Base Scenario Revenge of the Nerds Blue Planet -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Housholds Jobs Vehicle Miles Traveled Vehicle Hours Traveled Transit Ridership Residential Carbon Emmissions* Commercial Carbon Emmissions* Carbon from Vehicles Forest Land Impacted Farm Land Impacted *Scenario specific policies yet to be modeled

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26 The Four Scenarios Fossil Fuel Prices Tech. Impact Gov. Inter. Last Call at the Oasis High Low High Blue Planet High High Medium Ashes and Diamonds Low Low Low Revenge of the Nerds Low High Medium

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