Carbon Emissions from Industrial Sectors in China: Driving Factors and the Potential for Emission Reduction

Transcription

1 June, 2013 Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.4 No.2 J. Resour. Ecol (2) DOI: /.ssn x Artcle Carbon Emssons from Industral Sectors n Chna: Drvng Factors and the Potental for Emsson Reducton GUO Juan 1,2 *, LIU Changxn 1,3 and SUN Png 4 1 School of Mathematcs and Quanttatve Economy, Dongbe Unversty of Fnance and Economcs, Dalan , Chna; 2 Center for Econometrc Analyss and Forecastng, Dongbe Unversty of Fnance and Economcs, Dalan , Chna; 3 Shantu Constructon Machnery Co. Ltd, Jnng , Chna 4 School of Management and Engneerng, Dongbe Unversty of Fnance and Economcs, Dalan , Chna Abstract: We use the refned Laspeyres ndex decomposton method to determne the man CO 2 emssons from ndustry and analyze dfferences n these over the perod Then we examned the decouplng state between carbon emssons and economc growth and the effectveness of the mplementaton of emsson reducton polcy. We found that output effect s the domnant postve factor for carbon emssons growth n Chna s ndustral sectors, and the effect of energy ntensty change s the manfactor affectng carbon emsson reductons; the mpact of these two factors s respectvely % and %. The food ndustry, textle ndustry and machnery ndustry show a decreasng trend n emssons, and emssons from the ol ndustry ncreased by %. From 1994 to 2007 and 2000 to 2007, the decouplng ndex of carbon emssons and the ndustral sector was 0.63 and 0.56 respectvely. Ths ndcates carbon emssons and economc growth are n a weak decouplng state, and emsson reducton polces lack effcacy. These fndngs can be used n the desgn of polcy prortes for mprovng decouplng across ndustral sectors. Key words: CO 2 emsson; factors decomposton; decouplng; emsson reducton potental 1 Introducton Global clmate change has resulted n severe challenges to sustanable economc and socal development. As the world s largest developng country, Chna s efforts n energy-savng and emsson reducton are playng an ncreasngly mportant role. Snce 1980, the Chnese Government has promulgated the Energy Conservaton Law and formulated a seres of energy polces for encouragng energy effcency. Snce 1997, carbon emssons have been cut by 17%. In 2009, Chna declared the emsson goal that by 2020, the unt GDP emsson of carbon doxde wll be lower than that of 2005 by 40% 45%. Chna s beng n the mddle stage of ndustralzaton. In terms of scale, a large and growng populaton means that materal producton and consumpton n Chna s ndustralzaton process are larger than for other economes. In 2003, the per capta GDP broke through the 1000 USD mark. Usng ths ndex to measure, Chna has transformed from an agrcultural country nto a rapd ndustralzaton stage (Report 3 of Sustanable Development Strategy of Chna 2004). The proporton of heavy ndustry tototal ndustral output n 2000 was more than 60%, 63% n 2003, and 71% n 2008: Chna s growth has been swft and extreme. Electrc power, ron and steel, machnery equpment, automoble shpbuldng, chemcals, electroncs and buldng materals have become the man drvng forces behnd Chna s economc growth. The basc characterstcs of heavy ndustry are hgh resource consumpton and large polluton emssons. In the reformng and openng-up perod, the average annual rate of gross ndustral output was 11.2%, the rate of ndustral captal stock was 9.2%, and the rate of ndustral consumpton and CO 2 emsson were 6% and 6.3% respectvely. Durng that perod the ndustry GDP accounted Receved: Accepted: Foundaton: Natonal Natural Scence Fund Program ( ), Natonal Socal Scence Fund Program (10zd&010), and the Natonal Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna Youth Program ( ). * Correspondng author: GUO Juan. Emal:guouan2010@163.com.

2 GUO Juan, et al.: Carbon EmssonsfromIndustral Sectors n Chna: Drvng Factors and the Potental for Emsson Reducton 133 only for 40.1% but had consumed 67.9% of the country s energy, and dscharged 83.1% of carbon doxde emssons natonwde (Chen 2009, 2010). Gven hstorcal heavy ndustry growth patterns n Chna and recent motvaton to reduce carbon emssons, research nto decouplng of economc growth and carbon emssons wll underpn mportant polcy development. 2 Lterature revew The factor decomposton method s one of the most effectve and wdely used methods to study the factors that nfluence CO 2 emssons. Torvanger frst appled Index Decomposton Analyss (IDA) to envronmental ssues (Torvanger 1991). The developed decomposton approach reles on the Laspeyres method ntroduced by Howarth et al. (1991) and Park (1992). Shrestha and Tmlsna used IDA methods to research carbon doxde ntensty n the power sector of 12 Asan countres and regons, and found that the man nfluencng factors of CO 2 emsson n Chna s power sectors were the structure and strength of power sector fuels (Shrestha and Tmlsna 1996). By usng factor decomposton method to research CO 2 emsson ntensty n the manufacturng sectors of Chna and Korea, Ang and Pan ponted out product structure, fuel share and sector energy ntensty nfluenced CO 2 emssons (Ang and Pandyan 1997). Ang et al. (1998) used Chna as an example and nvestgated four knds of energy and eght ndustral sectors to study ndustral CO 2 emssons. Exstng methods have snce been modfed by Greenng et al. (1997), Sun (1998) and Hoekstra and van der Bergh(2003). Ln and Chang (1996) completed the Dvsa ndex decomposton for ntrogen oxde, sulfur doxde and carbon doxde emssons n Tawan from and found that economc growth had the bggest nfluence on harmful gas emssons. Usng a two layer decomposton method, Wang et al. (2010) found that growth of per capta GDP s the man drver of CO 2 emsson growth. As low carbon development concepts emerged, ncreasng attenton has been pad to the effect of the consumpton mode (Duarte et al. 2010), trade structure (Su et al. 2010) and factor substtuton (Chen 2009; Zhou and Ang 2008) on emssons. However, research nto the decouplng of economc growth and emssons n lght of energy polcy mplementaton has been lackng. Decouplng drects the measures to remove sgnal mutual nterference effects. In 2000, ths theory was ntroduced to agrcultural polcy research by the Organzaton for Economc Cooperaton and Development (OECD), and later used n evaluaton of envronmental qualty. Decouplng researchas t relates to the envronment orgnated from the Drver-Pressure-State-Influence- Response framework (DPSIR). When the economc growth s faster than growth n envronmental contamnants, t s called relatve decouplng. When the economy s growng but envronmental polluton has zero or negatve growth, t s known as absolute decouplng. We can use decouplng ndcators to measure t specfcally (OECD 2002, 2003a, 2003b) and ths has been done for emsson reducton polcy assessment (OECD 2003a), energy consumpton (Ayres et al. 2002) and transport (OECD 2003b). From a polcy perspectve, the pressure ndex and the decouplng ndcator are easer to change than the State (S) ndex n the short term (OECD 2003a). Therefore, decouplng measures are often used for envronmental ndces, polcy mplementaton and evaluaton n the feld of energy savng and emsson reducton. The above research as t relates to Chna and ts massve ndustral sector s lackng, and so the followng questons are addressed n ths paper: What factors nfluence Chna s ndustral emssons? What s the decouplng state between efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emssons and economc development, and how effectve s energy polcy mplementaton? What s the emsson reducton potental of Chna s ndustral sector? 3 Model method and data descrpton 3.1 Factor decomposton model for CO 2 emssons Current mature decomposton methods are the Laspeyres decomposton method and Dvsa decomposton method. Although the Dvsa ndex s consdered to have a more robust theoretcal foundaton, the man advantage of the Laspeyres ndex s the use of the famlar concept of percentage changes facltatng comprehenson and explotaton of results n comparatve assessments (Ang 2004). Because the maor problem n the Laspeyres method s the large resdual term found n most applcatons and leavng a sgnfcant part of the examned changes unexplaned, Sun (1998) used the refned Laspeyres ndex decomposton method on the bass of the ontly created and equally dstrbuted prncple to allocate resduals on each factors symmetrcally. We use the refned Laspeyres ndex decomposton model as follows: C = E s f = Y I s f t t t t t t = Yt a I s f t t t = Y a I s f t t t t Consequently, the change n CO 2 emssons ΔC t recorded n tme t n comparson wth the level n a base year t =0 can be calculated as follows: C = Y a I s f t t t t t Y a I s f From the above expresson, carbon emssons can be attrbuted to the followng factors: (1) s also economc structure effect: reflectng changes n the total produced Value Added ( Y) from ndustral sector, also reflectng the effect of economc structure change on carbon emssons. (1) (2)

3 134 (2) Industral structure effect: reflectng the effect of changes n the relatve shares ( a) of sub-sectors n total ndustral Value Added on carbon emssons. (3) Energy ntensty effect: reflectng the effect of changes n the rato ( I) of ndustral energy consumpton to the produced Value Added on carbon emssons. (4) Energy structure effect: reflectng the effect of the share changes ( S) of three prmary energy n the total energy consumpton on carbon emssons n ndustral sectors. In order to get the mpact of each separate factor on carbon emssons, ths paper examne the change of the consdered factor from ts base year to the level of year t, whle leavng all other factors to the base year level: C t = Y t + a t + I t + S t (3) Moreover, there nclude not only the ndvdual factors change effect (other factors reman unchanged), but combned effect of several factors, so: Y = ( Y Y ) a I s f t t R + R + R P, x P, x, y P, a, I, s a = Y ( a a ) I s f t 0 t R + R + R a, x a, x, y P, a, I, s I = Y a ( I I ) s f t R + R + R I, x I, x, y P, a, I, s S = Y a I ( s s ) f t R + R + R s, x s, x, y P, a, I, s The resdual formula of (4) (7) s from Sun (1998) and varable mplcatons are n Table Decouplng analyss model based on factor decomposton The standard for evaluatng the low carbon economy (4) (5) (6) (7) Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.4 No.2, 2013 refers to economc growth wth a decrease n greenhouse gas emssons. The transton to low carbon economy s a decouplng process between economc growth and greenhouse gas emssons. The specfc measure for decouplng research s D (Decouplng ndex). E D = (8) F where, D s the decouplng ndcator, envronmental ndcator E (such as resource consumpton, some emsson), and power factor F (such as the speed of economc development). Although the percentage change n CO 2 emssons s extensvely used n cross-country comparsons by governments, t gves only a rough and superfcal measure of each country s performance. Emsson reducton effort s a broad term, whch refers to all the acton drectly or ndrectly promotng the reducton of CO 2 emssons. These actons should nclude measures reducng energy ntensty and ndustral actvtes shftng to lower energy ntensve producton, and swtchng towards clean energy form n the manufacturng ndustry or power and heatng ndustry (Dakoulakn and Mandaraka 2007). Therefore, the effort undertaken by a country n a gven perod can be expressed as the ndustry structure effect, energy ntensty effect and energy structure effect, or the dfference between total change and output effect, n ether absolute (ΔF t ) or relatve terms (df t ): F t = C t Y t = a t + I t + S t (9) df t = dc t dy t = da t +di t +ds t (10) The values ΔF t or df t show also a negatve sgn as long as the sum of the three factors results n emsson reducton. Obvously, a negatve ΔF t or df t does not necessarly lead to total carbon emsson reducton, respectvely, snce efforts can be counterbalanced by a hgh postve value of the output effect. If ΔY t s a postve output effect, t means that economc changes have ncreased emssons, thus nhbtng reducton efforts. If the output effect ΔY t s negatve, t means that economc growth promoted emsson reducton, n ths case the reducton of reducton efforts ΔF t after the removal of the output effect should be the effort beng studed. Hence, n order to assess the degree to whch Table 1 The sgn and mplcaton n the decomposton model. Varable Implcaton Varable Implcaton C t Carbon emssons n ndustral sectors n the year t C t Change n CO 2 emssons E t Energy consumpton n ndustral sectors n the year t Y t Y t Produced Value Added n ndustral sectors n the year t a t Industral structure effect s t Share of energy forms total energy consumpton n the year t I t Energy ntensty effect f CO 2 emssons coeffcent of energy forms S t Energy structure effect I t Energy ntensty of ndustral sectors n the year t R Q,x Common effect of two factors on carbon emssons a t Output share of sector to total ndustral output n the year t R Q,x,y Common effect of three factors on carbon emssons I t Energy ntensty of sector n the year t R P,a,I,s Common effect of four factors on carbon emssons Note: R s the resdual, Q t =Y t,, a t,, I t,, s t.

4 GUO Juan, et al.: Carbon EmssonsfromIndustral Sectors n Chna: Drvng Factors and the Potental for Emsson Reducton 135 these efforts are effectve, the decouplng ndex s defned as follows: Ft, Y > 0 t Yt D = t (11) F Y t t, Y < 0 t Yt When D t 1, t denotes a strong decouplng effect. Through varous emsson reducton polces and measures, the mplementaton of the actual emsson reducton efforts are greater than or equal to the ncreasng emssons from economc growth. If D t s larger, the emsson reducton effect s more obvous, ndustry structure and energy consumpton structure are optmzed, and energy ntensty has decreased. Ths also llustrates that the effcency of resource utlzaton s hgher and envronmental pressures of unt output has been effectvely allevated. In other words, exstng emsson reducton polces and measures are effectve and effcent. When 0<D t 1, t denotes weak decouplng effects. Wth the deepenng of ndustralzaton, resource utlzaton effcency mproves, exstng polces and actons reduce CO 2 emssons, emsson speed got proper control, economc growth way wth hgh consumpton was mproved and the envronmental pressure was reled to a certan extent. However, emsson reducton n the absolute amount s less than the ncreasng CO 2 emssons from economc growth, therefore, total emssons are stll rsng, and the effectveness and effcency of emsson reducton polces cannot be guaranteed. When D t 0, t denotes no decouplng effect. Actual emsson reducton polces dd not reach the purpose of reducng emssons. At ths tme resource utlzaton effcency s very low, envronment qualty becomes bad and envronmental pressure caused by economc growth ncreases. 3.3 Emsson reducton potental model based on the carbon ntensty of sub-ndustral sectors Although emsson reducton s on behalf of emsson reducton efforts n each sub-ndustral sector, t cannot explan clearly the reducton potental. The carbon ntensty of the ndustral sectors, defned as the amount of carbon emssons per unt of ndustral Value Added, can serve as an ndcator of the emsson reducton potental n each subndustral sector. In the study of reducton potental, we cannot do comparatve analyses only wth carbon emsson ntensty change, but need to take dfferences n carbon ntensty of the examned sector nto consderaton. If the average carbon emsson ntensty of total ndustral sectors n the base perod n the year t=0, A(CI 0 ), carbon emsson ntensty change n the year t, ΔA(CI t ) are used as the reference scores for calculatng an average reducton rate: A( CI ) t r = (12) A( CI ) 0 If the carbon emsson ntensty of each sector change as a whole the average rate of all the ndustral sectors, a reference emsson ntensty reducton ΔIR kt s shown n Eq.(13) : (CIR) kt =r (CI) k0 (13) where, (CI) k0 s carbon emsson ntensty of sector k n base year. So emsson potentalty ndex c k s defned as a rato of the actual carbon emsson ntensty change Δ(CI) kt to reference carbon emsson ntensty change Δ(CIR) kt : c k ( CI ) kt = (14) ( CIR) kt If c k >1, the actual carbon ntensty change s larger than reference carbon emsson ntensty change, denotng that the effcency of reducng carbon emsson ntensty n sector k s hgher than the ndustry average level. 3.4 Data descrpton The varables nclude output value added of the ndustral and sub-ndustral sectors, output share of sub-ndustral sectors, three knds of prmary energy consumpton (coal, ol and natural gas), energy ntensty of sub-ndustral sectors and CO 2 emssons. The ndustry classfcaton standard s the new Natonal Economc Industres Classfcaton Standard 2002 Edton (GB/T ). In 39 types of ndustres, the data of ndvdual ndustry s small or short, so we handle ths problem referrng to the method of Chen (2009) whereby other mnng ndustry, waste materals recyclng ndustry (publshed after 2003) and handcrafts and other manufacturng ndustry are combned together and named other ndustry. In addton, tmber bamboo loggng and transport ndustry s changed to agrculture forestry anmal husbandry and fshery ndustry n the 2002 standard. Therefore, the number of practcal consdered ndustral sectors was CO 2 emsson Accordng to reference method provded by natonal greenhouse gas nventores volume second (energy) sxth chapters whch s guded for Unted Natons Framework Conventon on clmate change and ts Kyoto protocol specfed by IPCC n 2006 (IPCC 2006, 2007). CO 2 emssons can be counted based on a sum of energy-related emssons Other varable data Industry output value added and three prmary energy consumpton data n ndustral sectors are drectly Chna Statstcal Yearbook and Chna economc nformaton network database ( durng the year In order to exclude prce factors, ndustry output value added has been deflated n use of the ndustral product producer prce ndex. The energy ntensty of sector, the share of output value and the share of energy

5 136 consumpton were calculated. Ths paper uses annual data, and the sample nterval s Results 4.1 Factors affectng carbon emssons from Chna s ndustral sectors Overvew Fg.1 shows that ndustral output and energy ntensty produced the largest effects on CO 2 emssons. The effect of ndustral output on carbon emssons was postve, and CO 2 emssons were consstent wth ndustral added value changes. The energy ntensty effect was negatve. Industry structure effect and energy structure effect on CO 2 emssons were small. Specfcally ndustry structure effect before 1998 was postve, and was later (except 2001) negatve. The energy structure effect showed nequalty over the study perod. The contrbuton rate of the output effect on carbon emssons ncreases n Chna s ndustral sectors s maxmal. Snce 2000 the ndustry structure effect has promoted emsson reducton to some degree, and relates to the mplementaton of ndustral structural adustment polcy n Chna. A decrease n energy ntensty has been playng a great role n CO 2 emsson reducton. In 2006, the country mplemented energy-savng emsson reducton polces, and the energy ntensty of ndustral sectors fell sharply. In 2007, the contrbuton of ndustral energy ntensty on CO 2 emsson reducton was 16.18%. The declne nndustral sector energy ntensty can be explaned by techncal progress. Snton and Frdly (2000) also ponted out that prvate enterprses are usually more effcent than state-owned enterprses, and the energy consumpton for per unt of output s less. The effect of energy consumpton structure on carbon emssons s small, but the proporton of coal consumpton persstently ncreasng n energy structure wll rase carbon ntensty. Adustng the structure of energy consumpton and reducng the share of coal consumpton are necessary. Otherwse, the reducton effect from the decrease of energy ntensty wll be offset by rasng the effect from ncreased carbon ntensty of energy structure. In order to better research the staged characterstcs of ndustral CO 2 emssons, the sample perod was analyzed Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.4 No.2, 2013 n two stages ( and ) and four small stages ( , , , and ) (Fg. 2). Durng the years , ndustral CO 2 emssons ncreased by 17.63%. and ndustry structure effect played a postve role on CO 2 emssons, and were 47.47% and 12.46%, respectvely. The energy ntensty effect showed obvous negatve effects on CO 2 emsson, was 40.74%. The energy structure effect was small and negatve. The years were the perods of low growth, hgh effcency n Chna s economy, the rate of economc growth became slow. Durng ths perod, the proporton of coal n energy consumpton decreased from 77.8% to 76.4%, so the energy structure played a certan role reducng CO 2 emssons. Some productons of hgh energy consumpton, hgh polluton, low effcency stopped by the government n 1996, the Southeast Asa fnancal crss n 1997 and floods n 1998 mean that Chna s economc growth reached ts lowest level n The ncreasng rate of CO 2 emssons durng ths perod was the slowest. Durng Chna showed a trend of hgh nput and hgh growth. Because of the utlzaton of energy effcency, especally for energy ntensty from tons of standard coal per 100 mllon to tons of standard coal per 100 mllon, the contrbuton of energy ntensty effect on CO 2 emssons was 26.88%. Durng emssons ncreased by 53.6%, of whch the effects of output, ndustry structure, energy ntensty and energy structure on carbon emssons were %, 6.45%, 52.9% and 0.47%, respectvely. The effect of ndustry structural change and the declne n energy ntensty on carbon emssons was obvous and related to the adustment of economc development Sub-ndustral sectors We dvded the whole ndustry nto 38 types of ndustral departments and nne sub-ndustral sectors (Table 2). The food ndustry, textle ndustry, machnery ndustry and other ndustry exhbted good reducton effects. The remanng ndustres have experenced ncreased carbon emssons, partcularly the petroleum and electrc power ndustry wth an ncrease of %. From we % CO 2 emssons changs Industral structure effect Energy ntensty effect Energy structure effect % Industral structure effect Energy ntensty effect Energy structure effect Fg. 1 CO 2 emsson changes n ndustral sectors n Chna from 1994 to Fg. 2 Effect fgure of CO 2 emsson of ndustral sectors for dfferent perods.

6 GUO Juan, et al.: Carbon EmssonsfromIndustral Sectors n Chna: Drvng Factors and the Potental for Emsson Reducton 137 Table 2 Classfcaton of ndustral sectors. Sector Coal ndustry Petroleum and electrc power ndustry Metallurgcal ndustry Food ndustry Textle ndustry Papermakng ndustry Chemcal ndustry Machnery ndustry Other ndustry Industres ncluded Coal mnng ndustry, non-metal ore mnng ndustry Petroleum and natural gas explotaton ndustry, ol processng and cokng ndustry, electrc power, steam and hot water producton and supply ndustry, gas producton and supply ndustry Ferrous metal ore mnng ndustry, Non-ferrous metal ore mnng ndustry, smeltng and pressng of ferrous metals ndustry, non-ferrous metal smeltng and rollng processng ndustry Food processng ndustry, food manufacturng ndustry, beverage manufacturng ndustry, tobacco ndustry Textle ndustry, apparel and textle products manufacturng ndustry, leather fur feather and ts products ndustry Papermakng and paper products ndustry, prntng and record medum reproducton ndustry, educatonal and sportng goods manufacturng ndustry Raw chemcal materals and chemcal products ndustry, pharmaceutcal manufacturng ndustry, chemcal fber manufacturng ndustry, rubber ndustry, plastcs ndustry, non-metallc mneral products ndustry Metal products ndustry, general machnery manufacturng ndustry, equpment manufacturng ndustry, transportaton equpment manufacturng ndustry, electrcal machnery and equpment manufacturng ndustry, electron and communcaton equpment manufacturng ndustry, nstrumentaton and culture ndustry, offce machnery manufacturng ndustry Water producton and supply ndustry, wood processng and Taketo brown grass products ndustry, furnture manufacturng ndustry, other ndustres (three ndustres mentoned above) found for energy consumpton, the ol and electrc power ndustry produced the most emssons and carbon emssons of the remanng eght sectors declned. For example, n 1994 the consumpton of three prmary energes n the coal ndustry was tons of standard coal. Then t reduced tons of standard coal, the proporton of whch reached 27% n The energy ntensty effect of nne sectors was negatve, wheren the energy ntensty effect of the paper ndustry was hghest, up to 79%, but ts emsson reducton was the lowest. Industry structural adustment n ths perod also played a role. Only the energy structure effect of the chemcal ndustry was obvous, because durng the perod ts coal consumpton had reduced by 10.9% and ol consumpton by 9%. From ndustral sectors grew rapdly. Carbon emssons from the coal ndustry and petroleum and electrc power ndustry ncreased most, the proporton of whch reached 140.5% and %, respectvely. The output effect of coal and metallurgy ndustry was the greatest and ths reflected natonal polcy towards heavy ndustry sectors and economc characterstcs of heavy ndustralzaton n Chna. Although the ndustral structure effect as a whole durng ths tme frame was negatve, seven sub-ndustres demonstrated postve emsson effects. Technologcal progress and energy polcy mplementaton contnuously mproved energy effcency and reduced energy ntensty, whch made the energy ntensty effect an mportant pathway to reducton. 4.2 Decouplng analyss between CO 2 emssons and economc growth The decouplng ndex D t n 1995 was negatve, but postve n all other years (Table 4). The largest value was 3.17 n 1998 and the smallest was 0.08 n The output effect was negatve, and the emsson reducton contrbuton was postve n In 1998 and 2001, the decouplng ndex was greater than 1, ndcatng a strong decouplng effect. The decouplng ndex n other years was less than 1, meanng that carbon emssons n Chna s ndustral sector were n aweak decouplng phase. Emsson reducton polces, measures and actons to reduce CO 2 emssons were partally offset by a postve emsson effect whch caused by ncreasng ndustry outputs and energy demands. Because emsson reducton and polcy mplementaton are ongong processes, t s helpful to look at the effect of carbon emsson reducton efforts n stages (Table 5). The decouplng ndex for and was 0.63 and 0.56 these perods were n a weak decouplng phase. Efforts to reduce CO 2 emssons had certan effects, but they were not fully offset by ncreased carbon emssons from growth n ndustral producton and energy demands. From 1997 to 2000, the decouplng ndex was maxmal, up to Reasons for ths nclude energy polces that reduce hgh consumpton, hgh polluton, domestc floodng, the Asan fnancal crss, and slowng ndustral economc growth. Snce 2000, ndustral sector growth s largely dependent on heavy ndustry development. Although the Chnese Government has attempted to mprove hgh emsson and development modes, and made the decouplng ndex between emsson and economc growth around 0.6, mplementaton has not been overly effectve. From each component of the decouplng ndex (Fg. 3), energy ntensty had the greatest effect onthe decouplng between carbon emssons and economc growth. The ndustry structure effect n had a negatve mpact on decouplng; n ts effect was mproved. The effect of energy structure was very small because sngle consumpton based on coal obscured the effect of energy

7 138 Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.4 No.2, 2013 Table 3 Decomposton of CO 2 emssons from ndustral sectors. Effect Coal Petroleum and Metallurgcal electrc power Food Textle Papermakng Chemcal Machnery Other dy t 7.14% % 5.15% 33.04% 11.03% 54.02% 36.54% 41.60% 22.51% da 5.25% 10.24% 8.80% 0.17% 7.62% 8.70% 7.58% 12.22% 8.60% di t 39.89% 56.26% 5.70% 62.92% 49.43% 79.19% 37.32% 74.53% 77.85% ds 0.04% 0.56% 0.55% 0.01% 0.35% 0.05% 2.88% 1.56% 1.11% dc 27.46% 42.44% 8.79% 30.03% 46.37% 16.51% 11.24% 46.71% 65.04% C dy t % % % % % % % % % da 13.15% 16.06% 14.68% 16.65% 2.98% 12.80% 6.87% 6.87% 0.25% di t % 71.07% % % % % % % % ds 0.45% 3.39% 0.89% 0.87% 0.49% 0.10% 0.62% 6.27% 2.00% dc % % % 11.84% 79.99% 93.21% 56.92% 26.65% 34.79% C dc 74.45% % 86.40% 21.74% 3.47% 61.30% 39.29% 32.51% 52.88% Note: dy, da, di, ds and dc t ndcate relatve weght (%) of output effect, ndustry structure effect, energy ntensty effect, energy structure effect, and total emsson effect; C ndcates the absolute quantty of CO 2 changes. unt: ten thousand tons. Table 4, emsson reducton efforts and the decouplng ndex for Chnese ndustry. Year ( Y t )(%) Emsson reducton efforts (df t )(%) Decouplng ndex (D t ) Year ( Y t )(%) Emsson reducton efforts (df t )(%) Decouplng ndex (D t ) Table 5 Result of output effect, decouplng ndex and effort across ndustral sectors. Perod ( Y t )(%) Emsson reducton efforts (df t )(%) Decouplng ndex (D t ) Decouplng Index Energy structure effect Energy ntensty effect Industral structure effect Fg. 3 The decouplng ndex of CO 2 emssons for , and structure adustment. 4.3 Carbon emsson ntensty change and emsson potental n sub-ndustral sectors The potental ndex of the ol and electrc power ndustry n and was less than 1 and explans why emsson reducton effcency n ths ndustry dd not reach the ndustral average. The level n was only half of the average and ndcates that the potental for emsson reducton n ths sector s hgh. Although the energy effcency of the ol and electrc power ndustry mproved, other factors dd not play a sgnfcant role. The man reason was that the man power source leaded to a greater share of coal consumpton. To change the energy consumpton structure, the proporton of wnd power, hydropower and nuclear power should be ncreased. The potental ndex of the textle ndustry and paper ndustry n , was less than 1, but n the whole sample perod the CO 2 emsson reducton potental ndex was greater than 1. The structure of the papermakng ndustry plays a postve effect on carbon emssons. Although the two sector s energy effcency was favorable for reducng

8 GUO Juan, et al.: Carbon EmssonsfromIndustral Sectors n Chna: Drvng Factors and the Potental for Emsson Reducton 139 carbon emssons, ts energy effcency effect was far below that of other ndustres. Industres wth low carbon emsson ntensty face greater dffculty than those wth hgh carbon emsson ntensty because of margnal costs and techncal factors. Industres wth hgher carbon emsson ntensty n the base year ncluded the coal ndustry, ol and electrc power ndustry, metallurgcal ndustry and chemcal ndustry. Except for the ol and electrc power ndustry, the reducton potental ndex of the other three ndustral sectors was greater than 1. 5 Conclusons and polcy mplcatons From 1994 to 2007, the ndustral output effect on carbon emssons was postve and ncreasng, and CO 2 emssons were consstent wth ndustral added value changes. Energy ntensty had a negatve effect on CO 2 emssons, and had the greatest effect snce The ndustry structure effect before 1998 was postve, and later (except 2001) was negatve. The energy structure effect on carbon emssons was small and unequal. The food ndustry, textle ndustry, machnery ndustry and other ndustry exhbted good reducton effects. Carbon emssons n the remanng ndustres ncreased sgnfcantly, especally the petroleum and electrc power ndustry whch ncreased by %. Carbon emssons from Chna s ndustral sector are n a weak decouplng phase. The effect of emsson reducton polces, measures and actons were partally offset by the postve effects of ncreased ndustral producton and energy demands. Although the actons have certan outcomes on the effcency of resource use, carbon control and other aspects, due to a lack of effcency, Chna stll has a long way to go for the effort of emsson reducton. The emsson reducton effcency of petroleum and the electrc power sector has not reached the ndustry average, therefore, the key to reducng mssons n Chna s to control and reduce emssonsn these sectors. The chemcal ndustry and other heavy ndustres wth hgh emsson ntensty should also be a focus nto the future. Reducng energy ntensty has been the most potent promoter of CO 2 emsson reducton n Chna s ndustral sectors. Compared wth developed countres, energy ntensty of Chna s ndustral sectors s at a hgh level. In 2005, unt average energy consumpton of eght ndustres (electrc power, steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemcal, buldng materals, chemcal, lght and textle ndustry) was 40% hgher than the nternatonal level. The unt comprehensve energy consumpton of steel, cement, paper and paperboard product was respectvely 21%, 45% and 120% hgher than the nternatonal level. Techncal progress s needed to mprove energy effcency, and t s necessary to strengthen gudance and support of the government s publc polcy for energy technology changes, to ncrease energy expendture n research and development and develop natonal, local energy technology. Optmzng ndustral structure s the key to energy savng and emsson reducton. The results of ths study show thatthe effect of ndustral structural adustment on energy-savng emsson reducton s not obvous, and CO 2 emssons reducton capacty has not been effectve. Among developng ndustralzng countres, the proporton of ndustry n the natonal economy wll occupy the leadng poston. Key ndustres such as petroleum, electrcty, black metal smeltng, non-ferrous metal smeltng and chemcals must ncrease techncal reformaton strength, whle encouragng correct energy consumpton. We should also develop hgh technology and low carbon ndustres as soon as possble. Adustng energy consumpton structure s the basc method for energy savng and reducng emssons. The results of ths study show that energy consumpton structural change n Chna s ndustral sectors has a weak negatve effect on carbon emssons. To mantan and expand ths negatve effect we need to encourage energy converson, mprove energy structure qualty, develop hydropower, wnd power, nuclear power, shut down small thermal power unts, and elmnate backward producton capacty. Improvng the effectveness and effcency of emsson reducton polcy s the crtcal pathway to promotng constant decouplng between carbon emssons and economc growth. We should conduct nspectons, supervson and law enforcement of relevant departments, expand the use of economc nstruments and envronmental lablty, consder envronmental carryng capacty, and ncorporate emsson reducton factors nto economc decson-makng. References Ang B W and G Pandyan Decomposton of energy-nduced CO 2 emssons n manufacturng. Energy Economcs, (19): Ang B W and Zhang F Q A survey of ndex decomposton analyss n energy and envronmental studes. Energy, ( 25): Ang B W, Zhang F Q, Cho K H Factorzng changes n energy and envronmental ndcators through decomposton. Energy, (23): Ang B W Decomposton analyss for polcymakng nenergy: Whch s the preferred method? Energy Polcy, (32): Ayres R U, L W Ayres, B Warr Energy, power and work n the US economy, INSEAD, Fontanebleau. Chen S Y Energy consumpton, CO 2 emsson and ndustral sustanable development of Chna. Economy Study, (4): (n Chnese) Chen S Y Energy-save and emsson-abate actvty wth ts mpact on ndustral wn-wn development n Chna: Economy Study, (3): (n Chnese) Chen Y S Does a regonal greenhouse gas polce make sense? A case study of carbon leakage and emsson spllover. Energy Economcs, 31(5): Dakoulak D, M Mandaraka Decomposton analyss for assessng the progress n decouplng ndustral growth from CO 2 emssons n the EU manufacturng sector. Energy Economcs, (29): Duarte R, A Manar, J Sanchez-Cholz The mpact of household consumpton patterns on emsson n Span. Energy Economcs, 32(1): Greenng L A, W B Davs, L Schpper Comparson of sx decomposton methods: Applcaton to aggregate energy ntensty for manufacturng n 10 OECD countres. Energy Economcs, (19): Hoekstra R, J van der Bergh Comparng structural and ndex decomposton analyss. Energy Economcs, (25):39-64.

9 140 Howarth R, L Schpper, P Duerr Manufacturng energy use n eght OECD countres: Decomposng the mpacts of changes n output of ndustry structure and energy ntensty. Energy Economcs, (13): IPCC Gudelnes for Natonal Greenhouse Gas Inventores Volume 2 Energy. IPCC Clmate Change 2007: The Physcal Scence Bass of Clmate Change. Contrbuton of Workng Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change. pcc.ch/ Ln S J and Chang T C Decomposton of SO 2, NO X and CO 2 emssons from energy use of maor economc sectors n Tawan. The Energy Journal, (17):1-17. Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna Chna Statstcal Yearbook. Beng: Statstcal Press of Chna. OECD. 2003a. Envronmental ndcators: Development, measure and use. OECD, Pars. OECD. 2003b. Analyss of the lnks between transport and economc growth. OECD, Pars. OECD Indcators to measure decouplng of envronmental pressure from economc growth. OECD, Pars. Park S H Decomposton of ndustral energy consumpton: An alternatve method. Energy Economcs, (14): Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.4 No.2, 2013 Shrestha R and G R Tmlsna Factors affectng CO 2 ntenstes of power sectors n Asa: A Dvsa decomposton analyss. Energy Economcs, (18): Snton J E and D G Frdly What goes up: Recent trends n Chna s energy consumpton. Energy Polcy, (28): Su B, Huang H C, Ang B W Input-output analyss of CO 2 emssons emboded n trade: The effect of sector aggregaton. Energy Economcs, 32(1): Sun J Changes n energy consumpton and energy ntensty: A complete decomposton model. Energy Economcs, (20): Sustanable Development Strategy Research Group of Chnese Academy of Scences Report 3 of Sustanable Development Strategy of Chna Bengng: Scence Press. (n Chnese) Torvanger A Manufacturng sector carbon doxde emssons n nne OECD countres, : A dvsa ndex decomposton to changes n fuel mx, emsson coeffcents, ndustry structure, energy ntenstes and nternatonal structure. Energy Economcs, (13): Wang F, Wu L H, Yang C Drvng factors for growth of carbon doxde emssons durng economc development n Chna. Economy Study, (2): (n Chnese) Zhou P, Ang B W Decomposton of aggregate CO 2 emsson: A producton-theoretcal approach. Energy Economcs, 30(3): 中国工业部门的碳排放 : 影响因素及减排潜力 国涓 1,2, 刘长信 1,3 4, 孙平 1 东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院, 大连 ; 2 东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心, 大连 ; 3 山推工程机械股份有限公司, 济宁 ; 4 东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院, 大连 摘要 : 本文首先采用修正的 Laspeyres 指数分解方法, 分析了 年中国工业及分工业部门 CO 2 排放的主要影响因素, 解析了差异原因 然后, 基于退耦理论深入研究了工业部门碳排放与经济增长之间的耦合状态和减排政策执行的有效性 我们发现, 工业产出是中国工业部门碳排放增长的主要正向影响因素, 能源强度效应是主要的负向影响因素, 它们对碳排放的影响分别为 % 和 %; 食品工业 纺织工业和机械工业的碳排放呈现出递减的趋势, 而石油工业部门的碳排放量增加 % 年和 年工业部门碳排放的退耦指数分别为 0.63 和 0.56, 说明碳排放与经济增长处于弱退耦状态, 减排政策的执行还缺乏一定的有效性 上述结果会对工业部门耦合改善的政策制定产生一定的理论意义 关键词 :CO 2 排放 ; 因素分解 ; 退耦 ; 减排潜力