Peak Oil. The Impact of Peak Fossil Fuels on Climate Change & IPCC Scenarios Emma Gardner Climate & Society Seminar
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1 Peak Oil The Impact of Peak Fossil Fuels on Climate Change & IPCC Scenarios Emma Gardner Climate & Society Seminar
2 Unanswered Questions Emma Gardner What role does popular culture play in communicating climate change and resource scarcity? Do disaster movies and post-apocalyptic films encourage people to take positive action? Should the IPCC place more emphasis on peak oil, gas and coal in its reports? 2
3 The Impact of Resource Scarcity on Human Security? Source: William Blake, Europe a Prophecy, detail from Plate 6 via 3
4 Emma Gardner (When) (fossil fuel) Will we run out of resources? ^ 4
5 Overview Emma Gardner Theory Production History & Projections Price History & Projections The Export Land Model Relationship to IPCC Scenarios 5
6 Cumulative Production Curve Source: Patzek, T.W. and Croft, G.D. (August 2010). "A global coal production forecast with multi-hubbert cycle analysis" (PDF). Energy 35 (8):
7 The Hubbert Curve Source: M. King Hubbert. "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels". Drilling and Production Practice (1956) American Petroleum Institute & Shell Development Co. Publication No. 95 7
8 Peak of Discovery (Giants) Source: Höök, M. et al, The Evolution of Giant Oil Field Production Behavior. Natural Resources Research. Volume 18, Number 1, March 2009, Pages
9 A Few Trends Source: Energy Export Databrowser on 9
10 Production History of Giant Oil Fields Source: Höök, M. et al, The Evolution of Giant Oil Field Production Behavior. Natural Resources Research. Volume 18, Number 1, March 2009, Pages
11 Oil Production (Billion Barrels/Year) Source: Dr Colin Campbell on 11
12 Various Peak Oil Projections Source: Hirsch, R. et al. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, US Department of Energy, February
13 Finding a Suitable Euphemism Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on via Nicholas Arguimbau on 13
14 One Journalist s Reaction: Source: Chris Martenson on who sourced it from the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency 14
15 The Problem with the Data Source: Chris Martenson on 15
16 A Little Price History Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010 via 16
17 Oil Prices & Recessions Source: Hirsch, R. et al. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, US Department of Energy, February
18 IEA Oil Price Scenarios Source: 18
19 One Hypothesis: The Export Land Model 19
20 An Example of the Export Land Model Source: Energy Export Databrowser on 20
21 Significance of Fossil Fuel Use Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA on 21
22 IPCC Scenarios Source: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 22
23 Wikipedia rocks! The four SRES scenario families of the Fourth Assessment Report vs. projected global average surface warming until 2100 Paradigm More economic focus More environmental focus Globalisation (homogeneous world) A1 rapid economic growth (groups: A1T; A1B; A1Fl) C B1 global environmental sustainability C Regionalisation (heterogeneous world) A2 regionally oriented economic development C B2 local environmental sustainability C Source: alysis 23
24 Peak Coal Source: Patzek, T.W. and Croft, G.D. (August 2010). "A global coal production forecast with multi-hubbert cycle analysis" (PDF). Energy 35 (8):
25 Peak CO 2 Emissions? Source: Patzek, T.W. and Croft, G.D. (August 2010). "A global coal production forecast with multi-hubbert cycle analysis" (PDF). Energy 35 (8):
26 Coal Production Rates in IPCC Scenarios Source: Patzek, T.W. and Croft, G.D. (August 2010). "A global coal production forecast with multi-hubbert cycle analysis" (PDF). Energy 35 (8):
27 Peak Coal & IPCC Emissions Scenarios Source: Patzek, T.W. and Croft, G.D. (August 2010). "A global coal production forecast with multi-hubbert cycle analysis" (PDF). Energy 35 (8):
28 Conclusion Emma Gardner Conventional oil has peaked Conventional & non-conventional oil will peak very soon Gas & coal will also peak fairly soon Our capacity to deal with climate change could be severely limited by these peaks 28
29 Emma Gardner Thank you for your attention! 29
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