PRESENTATION OUTLINE Cuntry Prfile and Ecnmic Indicatrs Energy Reserves Current Energy Plicy and Measures Histrical Supply and Demand Energy Supply an

Transcription

1 ENERGY POLICY (A) COUNTRY REPORT PHILIPPINES LILIBETH T. MORALES DEPARTMENTOF ENERGY 1

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE Cuntry Prfile and Ecnmic Indicatrs Energy Reserves Current Energy Plicy and Measures Histrical Supply and Demand Energy Supply and Demand Outlk Investment Opprtunities Challenges in Energy Plicy Frmulatin Plicy Study Pririties 2

3 THE PHILIPPINES Selected Macr Ecnmic Indicatrs Number f Islands : 7,641 Islands Ppulatin : Millin (est. end 2016) GDP : 8,113.2 Billin Pess (2016) GDP Grwth Rate : 6.8% (2016) GDP Shares f Ecnmic Sectrs (2016) Agriculture : 9% Industry : 34% Services : 56% GDP / Capita : Php 78,583 /persn (2016) Energy / Capita : 0.50 TOE/persn (2016) 3

4 Energy Reserves Enegry Reserves As f December 2016 Oil Gas Cndensate Cal (in MMB) (in BCF) (in MMB) (in MMT) Reserves 43 3, * Ptential Resurces ** Undiscvered Mapped Resurces Nte: * Data as f Nvember 2016 ** Ptential Reserves, ,341 8,

5 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS ENSURE ENERGY SECURITY EXPAND ENERGY ACCESS PROMOTE A LOW CARBON FUTURE STRENGTHEN COLLABORATION AMONG ALL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES INVOLVED IN ENERGY IMPLEMENT, MONITOR AND INTEGRATE SECTORAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL ROADMAPS AND ACTION PLANS ADVOCATE THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPARTMENT S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA STRENGTHEN CONSUMER WELFARE AND PROTECTION FOSTER STRONGER INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND PARTNERSHIPS 5

6 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS 1 ENSURE ENERGY SECURITY EO n DOE-declared energy prjects as prjects f natinal significance Plan and build an apprpriate prtfli f installed and dependable pwer capacity mix f 70% baselad, 20% mid-merit and 10% peaking plant categries (cnsistent with the prjected ecnmic grwth up t 2030) that match the peak demand and the required 25% reserve requirements n a per reginal grid bases. Ensure transparency and predictability in the pwer generatin, transmissin and distributin permitting prcess. Build a cmmn carrier LNG receiving and distributin infrastructure anchred at a future Clean Energy City Accelerate ttal privatizatin f PSALM assets t meet its mandated gals prir t its end f crprate life in 2026 Imprve reliability, availability and resiliency f energy infrastructure and facilities Prmte indigenus energy develpment and utilizatin 6

7 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS 2 EXPAND ENERGY ACCESS TO ENSURE AFFORDABLE, RELIABLE, SUSTAINABLE AND MODERN ENERGY FOR ALL Exert best effrt t achieve 100% electrificatin f targeted identified unelectrified husehlds in all three majr islands Cnnect the Mindana grid with the intercnnected Visayas and Luzn grids t increase pwer supply reliability and resilience Frmulate/update Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) and Reginal Energy Plans Update and implement the Pwer Develpment Plan (PDP) and its cmpnent plans 7

8 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS 3 PROMOTE A LOW CARBON FUTURE Review fuel mix plicy Increase RE Capacity by 2030 (based n 2010 level) Prmte technlgy innvatin thrugh research, develpment, demnstratin and deplyment Clean, efficient and smart energy technlgies Insfrastructure fr next generatin vehicles 8

9 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS STRENGTHEN COLLABORATION BUILDING AMONG ALL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES INVOLVED IN 4 ENERGY AND ENERGY-RELATED ISSUES Undertake capacity-building f human resurces within the Energy Family in the rganizatinal, administrative, financial and legal cmpetency areas t better carry ut its balanced develpmental and regulatry functins. Harmnize and integrate prjects with ther relevant agencies. Upgrade ICT capability f Energy Family Develpment and implement a unified cmmunicatins strategy fr DOE fr its internal and external clients. 9

10 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS 5 IMPLEMENT, MONITOR AND INTEGRATE SECTORAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL ROADMAPS AND ACTION PLANS Alternative fuels and energy technlgies Energy efficiency and cnservatin Cnduct a natinwide IEC n ways t reduce electricity and fuel cnsumptin Resurce develpment (il, gas and cal) Renewable Energy Dwnstream il, gas and cal Pwer and electrificatin ICT fr energy (greater access t infrmatin by public and ther stakehlders) 10

11 6 ADVOCATE THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPARTMENT S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA AND ISSUANCE OF PERTINENT RULES AND REGULATION Energy Efficiency and Cnservatin (EE&C), Natural Gas, Liquefied Petrleum Gas (LPG), Energy prjects as prjects f natinal significance, Petrleum Upstream Regulatin Review f existing laws such as EPIRA, Dwnstream Oil Industry, Renewable Energy 11

12 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS 7 STRENGTHEN CONSUMER WELFARE AND PROTECTION THROUGH MULTI- SECTORAL MULTIMEDIA IEC PROGRAMS Integratin in curriculum f energy cncepts Increase energy awareness amng public schl students thrugh the cnduct f seminars and field visits Prmtin f alternative fuel vehicles and emerging energy technlgies 12

13 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS FOSTER STRONGER INTERNATIONAL 8 RELATIONS AND PARTNERSHIPS Bilateral and multi-lateral energy cperatin Facilitate free trade agreements n energy trade and services UN s Sustainable Energy fr All (SE4All) 13

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15 OVERALL SECTORAL OBJECTIVES BY 2040 IEEJ:July 2017 IEEJ2017 UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY Increase indigenus petrleum reserves t MMB il, 5.87 TCF gas and 56.81MMB cndensate and prduce MMB il, 4.04 TCF gas and MMB cndensate t cntribute t the cuntry s energy requirements SHORT-TERM TARGETS ( ) COAL Increase indigenus cal reserves t 766 MMMT and 282 MMT prductin t cntribute t the cuntry s energy requirements Ensure quality, reliable, affrdable and secure supply; Expand access t electricity; Ensure a transparent and fair playing field in the pwer industry RENEWABLE ENERGY Increase RE installed capacity t at least 20,000 MW DOWNSTREAM OIL INDUSTRY Imprve plicy gverning the dwnstream il industry t ensure cntinuus supply f high quality and right quantity f petrleum prducts in the market DOWNSTREAM NATURAL GAS Ensure secured and stable supply f energy thrugh technlgy-respnsive SHORT-TERM energy sectr TARGETS ( ) ALTERNATIVE FUELS & TECHNOLOGIES ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION Establish a wrld-class, investment driven and efficient natural gas industry that makes natural gas the preferred fuel by all end-use sectrs Reduce energy intensity and cnsumptin per year 15

16 HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MTOE TPES TFEC 16

17 HISTORICAL DEMAND BY SECTOR IN MTOE INDUSTRY TRANSPORT COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL AGRICULTURE 17

18 PRIMARY ENERGY MIX Gethermal 18.35% Bimass 14.36% Slar/Wind 0.15% Bifuels 0.84% Oil 34.17% Gethermal 18.23% Bimass 14.35% Slar/Wind 0.34% Bifuels 0.91% Oil 35.52% Hydr 4.17% Natural Gas 5.52% Hydr 3.87% Natural Gas 6.26% Cal 22.45% Cal 20.51% 2015 Ttal Energy: 51.7 MTOE Self Sufficiency: 51.9% Renewable Energy (RE) =37.9% Share f Green Energy (RE+Natgas) = 43.4% 2016* Ttal Energy: 52.2 MTOE Self Sufficiency: 56.3% Renewable Energy (RE) = 37.7% Share f Green Energy (RE+Natgas) = 44.0% Nte:* EBT as f May

19 POWER GENERATION MIX Hydr 10.51% Gethermal 13.40% Slar 0.17% Wind 0.91% Bimass 0.45% Oil 7.14% Natural Gas 22.91% Hydr 8.93% Gethermal 12.19% Slar 1.21% Wind 1.07% Bimass 0.80% Oil 6.24% Natural Gas 21.87% Cal 44.51% Cal 47.69% 2015 Ttal Generatin: 82.4 TWh Self Sufficiency: 53.1% Renewable Energy (RE) =25.4% Share f Green Energy (RE+Natgas) = 48.3% 2016* Ttal Generatin: 90.8 TWh Self Sufficiency: 51.0% Renewable Energy (RE) = 24.2% Share f Green Energy (RE+Natgas) = 46.1% Nte:* EBT as f May

20 FUEL INPUT MIX Gethermal 37.61% Other RE 0.88% Oil 5.60% Natural Gas 10.68% Gethermal 37.17% Other RE 1.83% Oil 4.81% Natural Gas 12.04% Cal 36.69% Cal 36.26% Hydr 8.54% Hydr 7.89% 2015 Ttal Input: 25.2 MTOE Renewable Energy (RE) =47.0% Share f Green Energy (RE+Natgas) = 57.7% 2016* Ttal Input: 25.6MTOE Renewable Energy (RE) = 46.9% Share f Green Energy (RE+Natgas) = 58.9% Nte:* EBT as f May

21 TFEC by FUEL TFEC BY FUEL (excludes nn-energy used) Bimass 24.5% Electricity 19.6% Bifuels 1.4% Oil 46.9% Bimass 23.4% Electricity 20.7% TFEC BY FUEL (excludes nn-energy used) Bifuels 1.5% Oil 50.1% Cal 7.4% Natural Gas 0.2% Cal 4.0% Natural Gas 0.2% 2015 Ttal Input: 30.8 MTOE 2016* Ttal Input: 32.1 MTOE Nte:* EBT as f May

22 TFEC by SECTOR Cmmercial 11.3% AFF 1.3% Industry 22.6% Cmmercial 12.6% AFF 1.5% Industry 19.5% Residential 29.3% Residential 29.3% Transprt 35.4% Transprt 37.1% TFEC.: 30.8 ktoe 2015 TFEC: 30.8 MTOE 2016* TFEC: 32.1 MTOE Nte:* EBT as f May

23 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Ttal Final Energy Demand by Sectr, MTOE MTOE ACTUAL PROJECTION Sectr Transprt Industry Residential Cmmercial AFF AAGR ( ) MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares AFF % Industry % Cmmercial % Residential % Transprt % Ttal % 23 Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr.

24 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Ttal Final Energy Demand by Fuel Type: In MTOE MTOE ACTUAL PROJECTION Ethanl Bidiesel Natural Gas 60 Cal Bimass Electricity Petrleum Prducts Sectr AAGR ( ) MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares Cal % Natural Gas % Petrleum Prducts % Bidiesel % Ethanl % Electricity % Bimass % Ttal % 24 Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr.

25 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Ttal Primary Energy Supply Mix: (in MTOE) ACTUAL CLEAN ENERGY SCENARIO Other Tech Cal Renewable Natural Gas Oil Oil-based Cal Natural Gas Renewable Other Tech Fuel AAGR ( ) MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares Cal % Natural Gas % Oil % Renewable* % Other Technlgy Ttal % *gethermal, hydr, bimass, bifuels, wind & slar Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017 ) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr. 25

26 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Fuel Input t Pwer Generatin Mix: in MTOE ACTUAL CLEAN ENERGY SCENARIO Slar Bimass Wind 50 Other Tech Oil-based Gethermal Natural Gas 10 Cal Fuel CES 2040 CES AAGR ( ) MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares Cal % Natural Gas % Oil % Renewable* % Other Technlgy Ttal % *gethermal, hydr, bimass, bifuels, wind & slar 26 Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr.

27 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Fuel Input t Pwer Generatin Mix: in MTOE ACTUAL CLEAN ENERGY SCENARIO 70 Other Tech Oil-based Natural Gas Cal Renewable Fuel CES 2040 CES AAGR ( ) MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares MTOE % Shares Cal % Natural Gas % Oil % Renewable* % Other Technlgy Ttal % *gethermal, hydr, bimass, bifuels, wind & slar 27 Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr.

28 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Ttal GHG Emissin, by Sectr & By Fuel Sectr MTC 2 e % Shares MTC 2 e % Shares AAGR Transfrmatin % Industry % Transprt % Cmmercial % Residential % AFF % Ttal % Fuel MTC 2 e % Shares MTC 2 e % Shares AAGR Natural Gas % Oil % Cal % Ttal % 28 Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr.

29 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Energy Intensity (TOE/MPhp): % reductin between 2015 and Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr.

30 SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION Energy Indicatrs: 2000 t 2040 Business as Usual (BAU) vs Clean Energy Scenari (CES) Energy Intensity (TOE/MPhp) BAU CES Oil Intensity (bbl/p100k) BAU CES Electricity Intensity (Wh/Php) Energy Per Capita (TOE/persn) 3.0 Oil Capita (bbl/persn) 2.5 Electricity Per Capita (MWh/persn) BAU CES BAU CES Nte: Same Ttal Pwer Generatin fr bth BAU and CES 30 Nte: Prjectins are preliminary (as f March 2017) subject t new sectral targets and develpments in the energy sectr.

31 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Pwer Sectr TRANSMISSION MASTERPLAN 31

32 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Pwer Sectr Visayas Mindana Intercnnectin Prject Target Cmpletin: April

33 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Oil and Gas Sectr Areas f Opprtunities Philippines: 16 Sedimentary basins representing an area f 709,000 sq km Cmbined ptential f 4,777 MMBFOE 1. Ilcs Shelf 2. Cagayan Basin 3. Central Luzn Basin 4. Bicl Shelf 5. Sutheast Luzn Basin 6. Mindr-Cuy Basin 7. West Masbate-Ilil Basin 8. Visayan Basin 9. Agusan-Dava Basin 10. Ctabat Basin 11. Sulu Sea Basin 12. East Palawan Basin 13. Suthwest Palawan Basin 14. Reed Bank Basin 15. Nrthwest Palawan Basin 16. West Luzn Trugh 33

34 As f June 2016, there are 24 petrleum service cntracts INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Oil and Gas Sectr Petrleum Service Cntracts Explratin and Develpment 34

35 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Cal Sectr 35

36 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Cal Sectr 36

37 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Natural Gas Sectr 37

38 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Renewable Energy Sectr Natinal Renewable Energy Prgram (NREP) 38

39 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Renewable Energy Sectr 39

40 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Renewable Energy Sectr 40

41 CHALLENGES IN POLICY FORMULATION Cnflicting laws and plicies, e.g. renewable energy law prmtes the explratin f gethermal and hydr resurces, while indigenus peple rights law prtects the ancestral lands f these peple. Ptential gethermal and hydr surces are lcated in ancestral areas. Investrs lack f cnfidence t invest in energy business due t excessive regulatry requirements. 41

42 CHALLENGES IN POLICY FORMULATION Lack f plitical will in plicy implementatin. Basically lack f necessary expertise in the field f energy, e.g., very few nuclear engineers and energy engineers. Manpwer shrtage in the field f energy. Mst Filipin engineers were emplyed abrad in pursuit f better financial cnsideratins. Lack f supprt frm ther gvernment agencies 42

43 CHALLENGES IN POLICY FORMULATION Inadequate research and studies Pr educatin in the area f energy cnservatin. Shift in pririty initiatives due t changes in plitical management Cnflicting demands/interests f energy stakehlders 43

44 PRIORITY SUBJECTS OF STUDY Assessment f the Renewable Energy Law implementatin in the Philippines Assessment f the 70, 20, 10 Plicy fr pwer generatin Supprting Study fr the Natinal Psitin n Nuclear Pwer Optin Strategic Framewrk n Disaster Rehabilitatin and Recvery in the Pwer sectr 44

45 PRIORITY SUBJECTS OF STUDY Public Plicy t Institutinalized the Develpment f Mre Reliable Data n Energy Cnsumptin Plicy n Indigenus Cal 45

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