Growth Pattern of China Cities since 1950* 1. United Nations Population Division. 2 China People s Public Security University

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1 Growth Pattern of Chna Ctes snce 1950* Danan Gu 1, Nan L 1, Patrck Gerland 1, Krll Andreev 1, Thomas Spoorenberg 1, Junshan Zhou 2, Chandra Sekhar Yamarthy 1, and Gerhard Helg 1 1. Unted Natons Populaton Dvson. 2 Chna People s Publc Securty Unversty Prepared for the 27 th IUSSP Internatonal Conference Aug 28, 2013 Busan, Republc of Korea *The vews expressed n ths presentaton are those of the authors and do not necessarly reflect those of the Unted Natons and Chna People s Publc Securty Unversty 1 Outlnes I. Introducton (1) Motvatons (2) Objectves II. Data and Methods (1) Defntons of Ctes and Urban Populaton n Chna (2) Data sources (3) Pareto law (cty populaton dstrbuton) (4) Methods for calculatng centrods & dstance between centrods III. Fndngs IV. Concludng Remarks 2 1

2 I. Introducton > (1) Motvatons. 80% of GDP s contrbutable to urban areas n many countres (Wess, 2001) ; 75% of all emssons of carbon doxde by ctes (Satterthwate 2008).. % urban populaton n Chna: 20% (210 mllon) n 1982 to 49.7% (666 m) n 2010 (net ncrease of 450m) (Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna, 1988; 2011) ;. Share of world s urban populaton for Chna: 9% n 1950 to 11% n 1980 and to 19% n 2010 (UNPD, 2012). v. # of ctes, Chna: 155 n 1953, 232 n 1982, 667 n 2000, and 654 n 2009 (UNPD, 2012). v. Few studes nvestgated evenness of cty populaton dstrbuton n Chna, 1. many of them not from 1950s to present; 2. wthout addressng the regonal varatons and the assocatons between cty growth and socoeconomc growths; 3. none examned the spatal changes of cty geographcal dstrbuton; 4. crterons for defnng cty populaton used over tme are not consstent. v. None explored the overall spatal trajectores of populaton, economc and socal development of Chna s ctes, 3 Shares of world urban populaton by selected country, % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Chna Inda Unted States of Amerca Brazl Indonesa Russan Federaton Mexco Japan Ngera Pakstan Sources: 2009 WUP database (UNPD) 4 2

3 Dstrbuton of ctes n Chna, No. of ctes Total ctes Mllon-szed ctes % of Mllon-szed ctes % I. Introducton > (2) Objectves To examne 1. General growth pattern of Chnese ctes (e.g., the Pareto (Zpf s) law) ; 2. Dfference between ctes n coastal provnces and those n nland provnces; 3. Analyze the spatal trajectores of the populaton and socoeconomc growth of Chnese ctes. 6 3

4 II. Data and Methods (1). Defntons of Ctes/towns and Urban Areas n Chna Ctes and towns o setup by the Mnstry of Cvl Affars (MOCA) and approved by the State Councl; Urban areas or urban populatons o set by the Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna (NBSC); Chnese cty (sh) (excludng Hong Kong and Macao, SAR) o a poltcal-admnstratve unt, o coverng an area much larger than the urban area, whch typcally ncludes an urbanzed core surrounded by extensve rural areas (Chan, 2007; Chang and Brada, 2006; Fan, L and Zhang, 2009). Household Regstraton System (Hukou) 7 Defntons for Ctes, Towns, & Urban Populaton n Manland Chna Urban Areas Censuses Cty or year ,000 (or mnng/ndustral bases, locaton of govern., trade ctr., forts) Town 2,000 resd plus 50% non-agr pop. Urban Populaton All populaton n urban areas ,000 & <20% nonagrculture pop. (or mnng/ndustral bases, locaton of govern., trade ctr., forts) (1) Non-agr pop n urban areas (household regstraton) (all pop under adjust.) (1) county wth agr pop <40% & GNP 300M, (2) county 0.5M pop & 120K non-agr resd plus GNP 400M (or mnng/ndustral bases, locaton of govern., trade ctr., forts) 3,000 resdents plus 75% non-agr pop. (2) , 80% non-agr pop. All populaton n urban areas (1) all resd cty dstrcts; (2) resd of streets (jedao) n county-level ctes; (3) pop of all resdents' commttees n towns. Note Some dfference between nonagrculture populaton and actual urban populaton, but mnor, especally n The natonal urban % reasonable and usable. Sub-natonal levels not good (Chan 2003). (avalable) 8 4

5 Defntons for Ctes, Towns, & Urban Populaton n Manland Chna Censuses or year Cty Urban Areas (1) pop dens. 400ps/km2 plus () non-agr pop 120K of home town of county gov. or non-agr pop 150K of the county, () GDP over 1 B Yuan (1990 prce) wth tertary sharng over 20%, () nfrastructure; (2) pop dens 100~400 ps/km2 () 100K, 120K, () 800M Yuan, () nfrastructure; (3) pop dens less than 100ps/km2, () 80K and 100K, () 600M Yuan, () nfrastructure; Town Urban Populaton (1) pop dens. 1,500ps/km2; (2) home town of local gov. (3) contgu. to gov locaton Note More accurate than before by ntegratng populaton densty, economc actvtes, & nfrastructure If over 250K pop and GDP 2.5B Yuan wth tertary of 35% and revenues over 200M Yuan, a prefecturelevel cty status can be granted. (or mnng/ndustral bases, locaton of govern., trade ctr., forts) 9 The 2008/2010 defnton for an urban area n Chna: (1) dropped the populaton densty; (2) stressed the contguty and the contguous areas were broken down nto the smallest admnstratve unts (.e., Resdents Commttee or vllagers Commttee). 10 5

6 II. Data and Methods (1) Defntons of Ctes/towns and Urban Areas n Chna Populaton Statstcs System n Manland Chna de jure populaton-- Hukou populaton (household regstraton)-- Department of Publc Securty --- Hukou system (snce 1954): block rural-urban mgraton, food ratonng system, & resources allocaton (Krkby, 1985). de facto populaton-- survey/census-- Natonal Bureau of Statstcs of Chna. 11 Admnstratve Dstrcts of Bejng Muncpalty In 2000 New dstrcts snce 2001 Sources: Montgomery (2008:761) &

7 Admnstratve Boundary of a Typcal Chna s County-level Cty (e.g., Danyang, Jangsu Provnce) Cty proper Locatons of Towns 13 II. Data Sources and Methods (2) Data Sources on urban areas n Chna Sources consdered by UN World Urbanzaton Prospects 2011 Censuses (1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2010), Chna Cty Statstcal Yearbook for each year, , Statstcal Yearbook for each provnce, each year, Statstcal Yearbook for some major ctes, Chna Demographc Yearbook, each year, New Chna Cty 50 Years, local ctes monographes, specfc documents, report, or data of each cty, Other relevant academc publcatons, 1% populaton sample survey (1995 and 2005), etc. 14 7

8 Statstcal Concept used for Chnese ctes: -- Prefecture-level cty: >> 2+ dstrcts (not contnuous) : agglomeraton >> 1 dstrct (or dstrcts contnuous): cty proper -- County-level cty: cty proper Gven the avalablty of data, concept of cty proper only approxmately applcable to a handful of prefecture-level ctes and to some countylevel ctes. -- Prefecture-level cty: offcally released urban populaton data normally also nclude urban populaton lvng n suburbs, and some cty dstrcts are not contnuous geographcally. -- County-level cty: offcally released urban populaton data normally nclude all urban populaton of the cty (normally nclude many from towns other than captal town of local government). 15 UN Defnton of cty populaton n Chna: defned as populaton n (1) prefecture level cty: urban areas of the cty dstrcts. (2) county-level cty: urban areas of the cty. Data consdered (1) all censuses: total populaton of each smallest admnstraton unt avalable : 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2010 (Stat. Chna) (2) de jure & non-agrculture populaton of each cty: (Stat. Chna) (3) de facto urban populaton of each cty: 1990, 2000, 2010 (Stat. Chna) (4) de jure & non-agrculture populaton for 50 major ctes: (Stat. Chna) (5) SYB of 31 provnces: (Stat. Chna) (two provded de facto pop. for each cty) 16 8

9 Cty Populaton Data for Chna o Populaton n urban areas whenever avalable. If not, all populaton for county-level cty n 1953 or 1964; non-agrculture populaton of the cty (prefecture-level) before 1982; ProUrban nherent model estmates (but ensurng populaton n 1950 larger than 2500 the mnmum threshold of a town f the cty was a county then); f the cty dd not exst n the past, populaton n 1950 mght be close to zero; arbtrarly provde an estmate n 1950 (very few cases) (much less than early revsons) o o o Supply at least two data ponts f a large expanson (countes/ctes converted to dstrcts) occurred after 2000; Consderng boundary changes n the past and at present. Chna admnstratve dvson webste ( 17 Cty Populaton Estmates for Chna n UN WUP a. All populaton of the cty (county-level) cty populaton -- before 1965 for most ctes. b. non-agrculture populaton urban populaton -- before before 1991 for remote areas (no R-U Mg.) c. de jure populaton de facto populaton -- before before 1991 remote areas (no across-regon Mg.) 18 9

10 II. Data Sources and Methods (3) Pareto Law G AP, log( G ) log( A ) log( P ) G: # of ctes wth populaton P or more (or the rank of cty sze); P : populaton of the th largest cty; A: constant, and : the Pareto exponent =1, Zpf s law (rank sze rule) A greater the value of ndcates a more even dstrbuton of cty n terms of populaton. Sources: Schaffar and Dmou, forthcomng; Song and Zhang, 2002; Xu and Zhu, II. Data Sources and Methods (4). Centrods: demographc & socoeconomc development w w w cos w cos w s populaton/a socoeconomc ndctor of a cty, and are lattude and longtude of the cty, and are the lattude and longtude of the centrod. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau,

11 III. Fndngs (1) Fast growth of the medum-sze and large ctes <100, , , ,000-1 mllon 1-5 mllon 5 mllon or more 500 Number of Ctes Year Urban Proporton, Populaton of All Ctes and Ther Shares among Chna Total Populaton, % Populaton (mllon) More than half the urban populaton lves n coastal ctes 13.5% 17.6% 20.9% 26.4% 36.1% 49.2% 34.8% 50% 40% 30% 20% % shared among total Chna % 10% 0 Year Non-coast Ctes Coast Ctes All Ctes All Ctes Pop among Chna's Total Pop. % 22 Urban Proporton 0% 11

12 Chna: no. of ctes by sze for coastal ctes and non-coastal ctes, Non-Coastal ctes Coastal ctes <100, , , ,000-1 mllon 1-5 mllon 5 mllon or more Number of Ctes Number of Ctes Year 0 Year Fast growth snce 1980 wth large dfference by perod between coastal and non-coastal ctes n Chna 23 Populaton (thousand) 1,200 1, No. of ctes and cty populaton between coastal and non-coastal ctes, Gap ncreased (larger coastal ctes than n-land) 170,000 people Number of Ctes 0 Non-Coast Cty Pop. Year Coast Cty Pop. Non-Coast Cty No. Coast Cty No ,000 people 24 12

13 III. Fndngs (2) More even dstrbuton n coastal ctes and later perods Coeffcents of the Pareto Dstrbuton for Chna s Ctes for Selected Years All Ctes Coastal Ctes Non-Coastal Ctes Adjusted R 2 Adjusted R 2 Adjusted R Total ctes Dstrbutons of the Pareto exponent Larger ctes more evenly dstrbuted All ctes Non-coastal Coastal Cty populaton 100k+ Cty populaton 200k+ Non-coastal Non-coastal Coastal Coastal All ctes All ctes Cty populaton 500k+ Cty populaton 1m+ Non-coastal Non-coastal Coastal Coastal All ctes All ctes

14 Coeffcents of non-pareto Dstrbuton for Chna s Ctes for Selected Years log( G ) log( A) log( P ) (log( P )) Constant Adjusted R 2 Coastal Ctes Non-Coast Ctes Comparson of Coeffcents of Pareto Dstrbuton between Chna and the rest of the world Chna Developng Countres Developed countres 28 14

15 III. Fndngs (3). Southwestward trajectory of the populaton centrod; Centrods for Populaton, GDP and No. of Hosptal Beds of Chna s Ctes, Geographc centrod: wthn 100km. Demographc centrod: westward n ; southwestward n GDP centrod: southwestward n ; southward n , and then northward n Centrod of No. hosptal beds: southward n IV. Summary and Conclusons about Chnese ctes 1. Hghest share of the current world s total number of agglomeratons (20%); 2. Cty growth was slow before 1980; 3. Large dfferences between coastal and nland ctes; 4. More evenly dstrbuted after 1980; 5. More even dstrbuton n coastal ctes; 6. Larger ctes tend to be more evenly dstrbuted; 7. Non-lnear relatonshp between cty rank and sze; 8. West ( ) and then Southwestward ( ) trajectory of demographc centrod; 9. Southwestward , southward n , and then northward n trajectory of GDP centrod; 10. Southward trajectory of No. of hosptal beds centrod; 11.Lag between demographc centrod and economc development, and between socal welfare and economc development and urbanzaton; 30 15

16 IV. Summary and Conclusons about Chnese ctes >> Future prospects 1. Contnue to grow fast; 2. Regonal dstrbuton wll lkely persst 3. Centrods of cty populaton, GDP, socal welfare : contnue and then slghtly north or westward; 4. Emergence of very large metropoltan areas Great Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou-Zhuha area 32 16

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