Workforce Development In The Transportation Logistics Field From The Regional Perspective

Transcription

1 2008 Ohio Conference on Freight Workforce Development In The Transportation Logistics Field From The Regional Perspective Wesley Hong Southern California Association of Governments

2 Outline SCAG Area Regional Economic Challenges Freight and Workforce Development Planning the Future 2

3 The Regional Planning Agency for Southern California 50% of CA population 38,000 square miles 188 cities 6 counties 3

4 18.5 million people now 24 million by Counties 193 Cities LAX Harbors 4

5 Most Socially & Culturally Diverse Region in the World 5

6 15 th largest economy in the world Shares the characteristics of many nations 6

7 Nation s Global Gateway for Trade 9,000 lane miles of freeway Three major seaports Four major airports 7

8 Population growth has been slowing due to increased domestic outmigration 8

9 However, the region has added 2 million people since Now 18.5 million. San Bernardino 18% Ventura 10% Los Angeles 9% 9% Orange Riverside 31% Imperial 21% 9

10 Sources of Growth Natural Increase 55% % Foreign Immigration Domestic Migration 1% 10

11 Shift in Ethnic Composition 100% 90% 10% Hispanic 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 82% % 34% 2006 Asian Alone(1) American Indian Alone Other Race Alone(2) Two or More Races(3) African American Alone Non-Hispanic White Notes: (1) "Asian Alone" also includes Pacific Islander. (2) "Other Race Alone" is too small to be shown (at 0.2 percent in 2000). (3) Only the 2000 Census included the "Two or More Races" category to which people may choose to belong. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data in 1960 was estimated by James Allen and Eugene Turner Changing Faces, Changing Places. 11

12 SCAG Region s s Falling Economic Status Exhibit 1.-Per Capita Income & Average Pay Per Job, SCAG Rank of 17 Consolidated Metropolitan Areas th = worst Per Capita Income Average Payroll Per Job

13 Per Capita Income Rank Among Top 17 Metros 7 Seattle 1 San Francisco SCAG Region 16 5 Denver Minneapolis Dallas 12 6 Detroit 10 Chicago St. Louis Atlanta Cleveland 13 Pittsburgh Boston New York Philadelphia Washington DC Was in 4th place in 1970, 7th in 1990 Houston 9 Miami : US Bureau of Economic Analysis 13

14 SCAG Area Sectors Losing Jobs Pay Well & Don t Have to Stay in Region Exhibit 2.-Top 12 Sectors Losing Jobs SCAG Area, Aerospace Mfg. (89,617) Electronic Instrument Mfg (47,283) Other Durable Mfg. Computer & Peripheral Mfg. (30,017) (29,750) Machinery Mfg Textile & Apparel Mfg. Fabricated Metal Mfg Other Federal Government Department of Defense Other Non-Durable Mfg. Printing Accommodation Over $40,000 a year (20,642) (18,925) (17,233) (13,267) (13,208) (11,167) (9,400) (7,642) Source: CA Employment Development Department 14

15 SCAG Area Sectors Gaining Jobs Pay Modestly & Do Have to Stay in Region Exhibit 3.-Top 12 Sectors Adding Jobs SCAG Area, Arts, Entertainment& Recreation Wholesale Trade Other Services Transportation & Warehousing Office Administrative Services Construction Local Goverment Agencies Retail Trade Ambulatory Health Care Services Employment Services Local Government Education Food Services & Drinking Places 26,858 34,608 36,092 36,525 41,358 41,842 45,833 50,383 58,633 Source: CA Employment Development Department Over $40,000 a year 99, , ,825 15

16 SCAG Region s s Losing Sectors Avg. Annual Pay $45,165 Exhibit 4.-Average Annual Pay, 2003 Top 12 Losing Sectors, SCAG Region Department of Defense Aerospace Mfg. Computer & Peripheral Mfg. Other Federal Government Machinery Mfg. Top 12 Losers Other Non-Durable Mfg. Other Durable Mfg. Printing Electrical Equipment Mfg. Fabricated Metal Mfg. Accommodation Textile & Apparel Mfg. $22,653 $22,569 $53,351 $48,161 $45,165 $44,918 $40,703 $39,390 $38,325 $38,079 $69,405 $69,263 $66,906 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment Wages, CA Employment Development Department,

17 SCAG Region s s Gaining Sectors Avg. Annual Pay $33,145 Exhibit 5.-Average Annual Pay, 2003 Top 12 Gaining Sectors, SCAG Region Local Government Agencies Wholesale Trade Ambulatory Health Care Services Arts, entertainment, & recreation Transportation & Warehousing Construction Local Government Education Top 12 Winners Retail Trade Office Administrative Services Other Services Employment Services Food Services & Drinking Places $14,713 $21,521 $20,641 $52,153 $46,892 $43,726 $41,953 $40,784 $40,439 $35,252 $33,145 $27,968 $27,966 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment Wages, CA Employment Development Department,

18 Why those with a choice either avoid the area, put their growth elsewhere, or leave? Workers Comp. Exhibit 6.-Workers Compensation Costs By State Per $100 of Manufacturing Payroll, 2003 $10.80 $5.81 $5.19 $5.10 $4.70 $4.54 $4.43 $4.34 $4.27 $4.26 $4.23 $4.13 $3.94 $3.91 $3.88 $3.76 $3.71 $3.63 $3.62 $3.61 California Florida Texas Delaware Vermont New York Oklahoma Hawaii Connecticut Alaska New Hampshire Missouri Michigan Maine Alabama Tennessee Rhode Island New Jersey Pennsylvania Colorado Source: Nebraska Department of Economic Development,

19 Why those with a choice either avoid the area, put their growth elsewhere, or leave? Energy Exhibit 7.-Electric Cost per Kilowatt/Hour Top 15 States & All Western States, Hawaii New Hampsh Rhode Island Massachusett California Connecticut Vermont New Jersey Alaska Nevada Pennsylvania Louisiana Florida Arizona Texas New Mexico Oregon Washington Idaho Utah Source: Energy Information Administration, "Electric Power Monthly" 19

20 Why those with a choice either avoid the area, put their growth elsewhere, or leave? Home Prices. Exhibit 8.-Median Home Price (000) Top 20 of 138 Metropolitan Areas,1st Quarter 2004 SF Bay Area, CA Orange Cty, CA San Diego, CA Honolulu, HI Los Angeles, CA Nassau/Suffolk, NY Bergen/Passaic, NJ Boston, MA Newark, NJ Middlesex, NJ Washington, DC Monmouth, NJ Seattle, WA Sacramento, CA W. Palm Beach, FL Inland Empire Worcester, MA Miami/Hialeah, FL Ft. LauderdaleFL Lake County, IL $420 $388 $384 $379 $347 $334 $323 $301 $298 $283 $278 $267 $259 $256 $246 $243 $242 $483 $597 $573 California Source: National Association of Realtors 20

21 Barrier To Prosperity: Marginally Educated 2000 SCAG: 46.8% no college 68.8% no degree Inland: 50.3% no college 73.5% no degree Exhibit 10.-Educational Attainment SCAG Area & Inland Empire, 2000 SCAG: 10,987,457 Inland Empire: 1,919,297 Bachelors & Up 2,460, % Associate 684, % Less Than H.S. 2,724, % Bachelors & Up 312, % Associate 138, % Less Than H.S. 488, % Some College 2,221, % High School 1,995, % Some College 503, % High School 477, % Source: U.S. Census 21

22 LOGISTICS: A Path To Upward Social Mobility Blue Collar Good Entry Pay Defined Skill Ladder On the Job Learning Heavy Use of Information Technology Has to be in Southern California 22

23 Share of Job Growth % 5% Logistics 10 % 0% -5% Manufacturing -8 % -10% 23

24 8.75% 8.50% Historical Trend of Logistics Industry in the SCAG Region 8.43% 8.56% 8.60% 8.67% 8. 66% 8.66% 8.60% 8.59% 8.48% 8.44% 8.49% 8. 41% 8.40% Share of Total Jobs 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 8.10% % 8.29% 8.29% Number of Logistics Jobs (in 1,000) 7.25% Share of Total Jobs Number of Logistic Wage & Salary Jobs % Source: EDD wage & salary data, March 2006 Benchmark. Note : Logistics industry includes "Transportation & W arehousing" and "Wholesale Trade"

25 Logistic Industry Share of Total Wage and Salary Job Growth: ( Period vs Period) 20% 19.3% % 13.5% 13.8% 10% 10.1% 6.6% 10.1% 7.4% 8.0% 8.9% 9.9% 5% 0% -1.0% -5% -4.2% Imperial Los Angeles Orange RIV/SB Ventura SCAG Region 25

26 % SCAG Jobs 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% The Logistics Industry Provides Jobs to 8.5% of Southern Californians of 12 jobs in LOGISTICS % Motion Picture Other Services Constr. Financial Activities Logistics Leisure and Hosp. Educ. & Health Services Manf. Gov t. Prof. & Bus. Services 26

27 Jobs in Logistics Sectors = 548,278 Jobs Exhibit 11.-Wage & Salary Employment, Logistics Group By Sector, SCAG Region, 2003 Wholesale trade 352,373 Truck transportation Support activities for transportation Couriers General warehousing & storage Air transportation Rail Transportation Water transportation 54,504 52,662 30,090 28,442 25,466 2,952 1,789 Logistics Group 548,278 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment Wages, CA Employment Development Department,

28 0.18 SCAG Region - 2nd Quarter 2006 Job Share & Average Weekly Pay by Major Industry Sector in the SCAG Region Job Share Weekly Pay $1, 400 $1, % 16.2% Average Weekly Pay for all Industries is $ % SCAG Jobs $ % $862 $ % $ % $ % $ $ Weekly Pay 7.3% % $431 $ % % Logistics Cons truction Manufacturing Motion Picture Financial Activities Professional & Business Service Education & Health Service Leisure and Hos pitality Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW ) - 2nd Q uarter, 2006 * Other industries (not shown) account for 8% of SCAG region jobs. They include agriculture, natural resources & mini ng, utility, retail, and telecommunications Other Service Government 0 28

29 Pay In Logistics Sectors: Wgted.. Average = $45,314 Exhibit 12.-Annual Average Wages & Salaries, Logistics Group By Sector, SCAG Region, 2003 Rail Transportation Air transportation Support activities for transportation Wholesale trade Logistics Group Water transportation Warehousing and storage Truck transportation Couriers $55,344 $51,655 $49,829 $46,892 $45,314 $40,988 $37,938 $37,449 $34,049 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment Wages, CA Employment Development Department,

30 Logistics: Highest Blue Collar Avg. Pay Level Exhibit 13.-Average Annual Wage & Salary Blue Collar Sectors, SCAG Region, 2003 $40,439 $43,871 $45,314 Construction Manufacturing Logistics Source: Quarterly Census of Employment Wages, CA Employment Development Department,

31 Why High Pay? Computerized Order Receiving Personal Digital Assistants Robotic Goods Handling Random Product Testing & Measurement Equipment Laser Scanners Geographic Information Systems Truck Routing Global Positioning Tracking of Containers Internet Communications Manufacturing Inside Warehouses 31

32 Long Term Sector Strength: Just In Time Inventory Control Exhibit 15.-U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 32

33 Long Term Sector Strength: Dramatic Increase in International Trade TEUs in thousands ,835 1,776 Seattle 2,557 59,420 4,478 4,396 1,798 Tacoma NY/NJ 5,566 1,809 2,043 3,382 Virginia 6,639 Oakland 1,860 13,101 Charleston 9,420 LA/LB 1,437 6,165 Houston 2,152 1,010 Miami 1,662 Savannah Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression 33

34 In Million TEUs Source: POLA, POLB Total LA/Long Beach Container Growth Projected to Triple in 25 Years 34

35 Long Term Sector Strength: Intermodal Rail:Truck Container Lifts Exhibit 19.-Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway Container Lifts, San Bernardino, California Design Capacity 388, , , ,777 7,755 10,859 23,387 35,314 41,403 55, , ,701178,270 70,090 90, , , , Source: Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway 35

36 New Challenges and Opportunities Slowing Global Economy Changing International Trade Patterns (POLB and POLA) Loaded Inbound Loaded Outbound Total Loaded Empties Total Containers Jan - Jun 2008 YTD % Change -9.2% 22.7% -0.4% -26.0% -7.7% Increasing Energy Cost and Changing Freight Transport Mode Business Reconsidering Outsourcing Practices 36

37 New Challenges and Opportunities (cont.) California Legislature AB 32 and SB 375 Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, 80 percent below 1990 levels by Reduce VMT by linking land use plan to transportation. San Pedro Bay Ports Clean Air Action Plan Require 16,000 drayage trucks to meet 2007 emissions standards by 2012 through replacement or retrofitting. Transportation Workers Identification Credential (TWIC) Program Complete a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and U.S. Coast Guard security assessment. It was estimated that 2,500 to 3,700 IOOs or 15% to 22% of the current port drivers would be barred by the TWIC rules. The trucking cost will increase by 28%. 37

38 New Challenges and Opportunities (cont.) Transportation Infrastructure Issues Highway Rail Air cargo Intermodal yard Land and Space Constraints Nowhere else has land except Inland Empire 38

39 The 2008 SCAG Regional Transportation Plan $531.5 billionb illion (nominal dollars) 39

40 Inside the RTP 40

41 Inside the RTP HOV Gap Closures New Tolled Freeways Freeway Expansion Major Highway Projects 41

42 Inside the RTP Major Transit and High-Speed Regional Transport Projects New High-Speed System Metrolink Extensions Heavy Rail Extensions Light Rail Extensions New Bus Rapid Transit 42

43 Inside the RTP Additional BNSF and Union Pacific Track Capacity Locomotive Engine Upgrades Over 130 Grade Separation Projects Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner 43

44 Inside the RTP Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner Dedicated Lanes for Clean Technology Trucks Constrained RTP I-710 Strategic RTP East-West Corridor and I-15 44

45 Benefits of an Expanded Infrastructure Backbone for Goods Movement 1. Potential strength of Logistics Sectors will be unleashed 2. Path will be created for workers to achieve a higher standard of living 3. Efficiency of Southland s economy will be enhanced 4. Reduced traffic congestion will improve public health and quality of life 45

46 Thank You! 46