Technical Risk Management during O&M of PV Plants. Manfred Bächler Cologne May 10th, 2016

Transcription

1 Technical Risk Management during O&M of PV Plants Manfred Bächler Cologne May 10th, 2016

2 Agenda The stakeholders and their interests Consolidation of the PV Value Chain Specific Risk Areas Technical Risk Assessment Criteria Trends and Outlook 2

3 The Stakeholders and their (different) interests Investor EPC Contrator PV Plant O&M Operator Bank/ Insurance Company 3

4 The Stakeholders and their (different) interests Investor Long Defect Warranty Period Performance guarantees Reasonable Low CAPEX Reasonable Low OPEX High Longterm Plant Performance (ideally above prediction) Observance of all requirements from grid Operator, legal permits, etc 20years+ operation time 4

5 The Stakeholders and their (different) interests Bank/ Insurance Company Long Defect Warranty Period Reasonable Low CAPEX Reasonable Low OPEX High Longterm Plant Performance (in worst case only slightly below prediction) years financing period very similar to investor 5

6 The Stakeholders and their (different) interests EPC Contrator Short Defect Warranty Period Minimum of additional guarantees and warranties High Sales Price (via low OPEX this affects O&M prices) [1 /kwp lower OPEX means 15 /kwp higher sales price] 1 year construction, max. 5 years warranty different time horizon than investor 6

7 The Stakeholders and their (different) interests O&M Operator Long Defect Warranty Period (incl. commissioning test at end of that period!) Low Sales Price (to allow for higher OPEX costs) Investors representative against EPC, grid operator, Other service providers 20 years + O&M Operator is one of the key players to manage all these contradictonary requirements of different stakeholders for a long time 7

8 Consolidation (Development of O&M prices in Germany) O&M Prices 8

9 Consolidation (Development of O&M prices in Germany) Monitoring Tool (incl. Transfer) Monitoring & Reporting Trouble Shooting Preventive Maintenance Site Keeping MV Inspection 9 All except for Monitoring Tool very labour intensive. Hard to reduce costs further.

10 Consequences of Consolidation/Price Pressure Walk away from all inclusive contracts (no repair flat rate, etc.) Price lists with minimum service level and extra packages Must have vs. Nice to have (BGV, DIN) Shorter duration of O&M contracts (no 20 years contracts with fixed prices, etc ) Price pressure against subcontractors Existing O&M contracts are challenged (in case of transfer to other contract partner) Spare parts management is becoming more complicated (original supplier out of market, product discontinued) Size matters to benefit from economy of scale effects (weekend stand-by, tools, etc ) 10

11 mars JJ avr JJ mai JJ juin JJ juil JJ août JJ sept JJ oct JJ nov JJ déc JJ janv JJ févr JJ mars JJ avr JJ mai JJ juin JJ juil JJ août JJ sept JJ oct JJ nov JJ déc JJ janv JJ févr JJ mars JJ avr JJ mai JJ juin JJ juil JJ août JJ sept JJ oct JJ Specifc Risk Areas Inverter Failures A total of 400 inverters were installed in 2012 in 6 plants Almost 25% failure rate in 3 years but slowing down with time Specific problem of power electronics part in some production lots Long replacement times (>6 weeks in summer) own spare inverters? 11

12 Specifc Risk Areas Site Management Picture: Phoenix Solar AG Soil erosion due to unproper preparation of the PV site (at the slope of a hill) before construction and lack of vegetation Immediate action required (appropriate drainage inside and outside of the park) 12

13 Specifc Risk Areas DC Cabling/Rodents Picture: Phoenix Solar AG Damaged isolation (DC cabling by rodents in mounting structure) Immediate Action required since inverter was shut down due to isolation fault 13

14 Specifc Risk Areas DC Cabling/Rodents Picture: reniva GmbH Open or damaged cable conduits are an invitation for rodents to move in (and water to suck in and stay.) Action required to close the inlets (with fountain foam) 14

15 Specifc Risk Areas High Currents (AC LV) Picture: reniva GmbH Fire in Medium Voltage Station Very high associated costs (new station, energy losses due to long lead item) 15

16 Specifc Risk Areas Isolation fault due to fire fighting Picture: reniva GmbH Isolation faults due to water penetration at MV station and capillary effects Replacement of all affected cables 16

17 Specifc Risk Areas Thefts Picture: eon EGD, reniva GmbH Inverters seems to become thefts best friends: Similar weight as a module but almost 10fold value and less breakage risk during bumpy transport Higher loss due to disconneted arrays: 1 inverter == 100 modules 17

18 Technical Risk Assessment Main Criteria Performance Loss Short Term (Break Down) Level Total Plant or MV Station Shut Down Reaction Time Immediate <3% 24/48h Long Term (Degradation) <1% Next inspection interval PID tbd Soiling tbd 18

19 Technical Risk Assessment Main Criteria Issue Risk Action Personal Safety Electrical Shock Immediate Damaged component (but still operational) Performance Loss, Subsequent Failures tbd Long term integrity of PV plant Collapse of structures, UV Protection, etc tbd Theft Loss of property Immediate, tbd Permissions (legal, grid operator, land lord, etc ) Loss of operating permission, permanent 19

20 Technical Risk Assessment Review Steps PV Park is new in the portfolio (documentation, historical data, fingerprint data, initial risk assessment) Preventive maintenance report (w/o wear and tear issues) Corrective maintenance report Fault diagnostics and ticket system of monitoring system Any relevant information from market about product problems (suppliers, product recalls (!), customers, competitors, blogs, etc ) 20

21 Trends and Challenges for the Future Spare parts management is becoming more complex with ongoing consolidation on supplier side but also legal aspects (replacement of broken/stolen modules (EEG) & inverters (BDEW certification) Size matters to benefit from economy of scale effects (weekend standby, tools, new technical challenges in long-term operation, fulfilment of all legal & grid requirements, etc ) Consolidation in O&M segment (take over of O&M portfolios with unknown quality, migration of historical data, etc..)) will continue with more competition (cost effectiveness) More automization is needed to reduce labour intensive routine work (data trend analysis, robots & drones, etc ) Supervision of O&M (if identical to EPC) 21

22 Site Management Risk Mother Nature...but this should be manageable 22