Shell Energy Scenarios & Hydrogen

Transcription

1 Shell Energy Scenarios & Hydrogen Royal Dutch/Shell Group Alpbacher Technologie Gespräche 2005

2 What Shapes Long Term Energy? The contributors demography incomes urbanisation liberalisation The critical resource constraints technology social and personal priorities

3 Energy Branching Points demographics urbanisation Resource constraints Technologies Social & personal priorities Innovation and competition Dynamics as Usual Energy choices- Citizens Evolutionary system Energy Choices - Consumers Revolutionary developments incomes & demand liberalisation The Spirit of the Coming Age

4 Dynamics as Usual Societal pressures for clean, secure and sustainable energy push a direct path to renewables, supported by gas in the medium term But only after advances in energy storage and a next generation of renewables around Vehicle efficiency advances prolong the oil transition.

5 Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated Mark Twain 80 mpg Direct Injection A New Life for Internal Combustion Engines 60 mpg Hybrid

6 Long Term Renewables wins Thin film Solar Biofuels Diverse Storage Thermal Pumped hydro Compressed air Chemical Source: NREL, 2000

7 Energy Transitions Dynamics as Usual % of Primary Energy 80 Traditional 60 Coal 40 Oil 20 0 Hydro Gas New Renewables Biofuels Nuclear

8 Spirit of the Coming Age Consumer demands for more convenience, flexibility and independence, supported by advanced hydrocarbon technologies, provide an infrastructure bridge to a hydrogen economy. Longer term this creates a large demand pull for sustainable hydrogen and renewables.

9 Infrastructure - The Critical Enabler Percentage of maximum US network size Canals 1835 Railways 1891 Telegraphs 1946 Roads Oil Pipelines Airways Internet Source: IIASA, Grubler & Nakicenovic, 1991

10 Fuel Cell Vehicle Share of Sales % of total Global clean, quiet low maintenance 60 OECD high performance % of global natural gas sales mobile information and entertainment ICE cannot compete

11 Primary Energy Comparison EJ 1250 EJ New Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal CH 4/ H 2 Coal Traditional

12 The Three Global Scenarios to 2025 Efficiency Market incentives Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Security Coercion Regulation Social cohesion The force of community Flags

13 Hydrogen - Facts not fiction Japan Iceland Europe North America

14 Technical issues to be addressed High Negative impact if not solved Inexpensive on-board storage Reduced Platinum load Cold start & freezing Packaging FC system in car Electrode Poisoning Keeping membrane humid Packaging H2 storage volume - conformable tanks Medium temp. Metal hydrides with > 6 wt% H2 Low Low Non precious metal catalyst High Remaining technical hurdles

15 Cost of FCV drive train as function of production volume 1200 System costs [$/kw] ICE competitive level K 30K 500K 5000K Number of vehicles per year

16 800 km Europe at nigh

17 800 km Area covered by 100 km distribution around refinery Only refineries

18 800 km Area covered by 100 km distribution around production site

19 A new approach: Mini Networks

20 The next stretch: Mini Networks Fleets increasing to 100 vehicles and beyond Fuelled from mini-network of 4-6 integrated hydrogen/gasoline stations Public Private Partnerships More than one vehicle manufacturer More than one infrastructure supplier Fleet company Government & regional/local authority Focus on transportation in urbanised markets E.g. Tokyo, Los Angeles, the Rhine region Some stationary power elements High visibility

21 The Way Ahead Lighthouse projects, with Coordination mechanisms & incentives, that build Supply chain confidence, supported by Regulations, codes & standards, and Promotion of public awareness Substantial public-private partnerships

22 Where and when?