REDD PROJECT FEASIBILITY TEMPLATE

Transcription

1 REDD PROJECT FEASIBILITY TEMPLATE

2 REDD Prject Feasibility Assessment Prject Name: Cuntry/Lcatin: Lead Organizatin: Main cntact name/details: Partner(s): Summary (300 wrds max) Feasibility Assessment Template Page 2 f 12

3 1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1.1. Prject Idea Very brief presentatin f verall prject idea and situatin Aim f feasibility assessment 1.2. Prject Cntext and Backgrund General descriptin f prject site, including lcatin, size; map(s) f lcatin within cuntry, regin Ge-physical and eclgical aspects (tpgraphy, vegetatin types, climate) Brief descriptin f land-use pressures n frest in the area, general summary f defrestatin drivers and agents (mre detail t be prvided belw in baseline analysis) General descriptin f cmmunities and sciecnmic situatin in prject zne Prgress t date in carbn prject develpment (brief summary f data and analyses, institutinal arrangements, etc.), expected start date f carbn prject Main Prject Objectives and Activities State the prject s verall bjectives and expected utcmes Describe in cncrete terms hw the prject s activities are ging t tackle land-use change trends. Clearly distinguish currently nging and planned /envisined activities. Describe main stakehlders: bth fr current land-use pressures (e.g. cmmunities, land-wners, migrants) and prject interventins (e.g. external prject partners) Prject bundaries Preliminary determinatin f prject scale, area and bundaries. (This will be imprtant fr all subsequent steps f the analysis, including baseline analysis and carbn quantificatin. Prject interventins and lcal cmmunity partners will als be influenced by prject delimitatin.) Prvide a map with gegraphical crdinates t indicate bundaries f the prject area. What is the verall area (ha) f frests directly invlved in the prject? What is the apprximate number f cmmunities and/r landwners that will be invlved? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 2 f 12

4 2. LAND TENURE AND REDD POLICY CONTEXT 2.1. Tenure regimes in prject area and relevance fr REDD What is the legal regime f tenure rights fr frest and agricultural land in the prject area (incl. frmal and custmary titles)? D prject participants hld legal r custmary land titles r culd they realistically btain them? This will be imprtant t understand 1) carbn wnership aspects, 2) feasibility f specific prject interventins linked t changed land uses, 3) needs fr an incentive and cmpensatin strategy t rights hlders, and 4) risks t the permanence f carbn benefits Natinal REDD+ plicy cntext What is the status f REDD+ strategy and plicy at the natinal level? What are implicatins fr the prject area r prject type prpsed here (gegraphic lcatin, types f interventins, etc.)? What is the status f plicy arrangements fr sub-natinal activities (nested appraches, prjects), and have accunting regulatins been specified? Are there explicit restrictins r pprtunities fr crediting (r cmmercializing credits) n the prject level? 2.3. Legal cntext f frest carbn rights Have frest carbn wnership rights been legally defined in natinal legislatin? Can certain rights (wnership, use) be inferred frm existing frestry, natural resurce, r land tenure legislatin? 3. FIT WITH CARBON STANDARDS & METHODOLOGIES 3.1. Applicable carbn standards Which carbn standards ptentially apply t the prject cntext (e.g. VCS, Plan Viv)? 3.2. Availability f methdlgies applicable and suited t prject cntext Are (apprved) methdlgies available under the chsen standard fr this prject type? Review applicability criteria and scpe fr existing methdlgies. Are there any challenges t applying standards and existing methdlgies (e.g., baseline prjectins, applicability criteria, leakage requirements)? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 3 f 12

5 3.3. Data Availability What is current and expected availability f key data needed fr a cnfident assessment f feasibility and/r during frmal carbn prject develpment (i.e. stipulated by carbn methdlgies)? In particular, are there any challenges that may limit the pssibility fr generating reliable data fr estimating baseline emissins (incl. existence f a suitable reference area), leakage dynamics, and carbn stcks? What abut data needed fr mnitring f prject perfrmance and leakage (systems and data items)? 4. PROJECT CARBON BENEFITS 4.1. Frest area and types, carbn stcks Hw can frest area be stratified by frest types (eclgical characteristics, e.g. riverine, mntane, humid, semi-arid) and cnditin (degradatin levels, e.g. lgged ver, degraded by fuelwd extractin)? What is the apprximate frest area per stratum? What is knwn abut carbn stcks fr each f the abve classes (frest types and cnditin)? Include infrmatin frm site-specific studies and/r natinal-level inventries and/r applicable IPCC default values r data frm relevant scientific studies elsewhere Baseline drivers and agents Systematic analysis f apparent and underlying drivers and agents f defrestatin and frest degradatin. This may cnsider a large variety f aspects, including ptential factrs arising frm land management practices, fd and crp markets, fuel demand, infrastructure develpment, ppulatin dynamics, fire; as well as ptential agents such as lcal cmmunities, agr-business, lgging cmpanies, etc. Are recent r histrical dynamics likely t apply t future years (in the absence f prject interventins)? What changes are likely? Is there evidence fr these expectatins? Nte: This assessment step is crucial fr (1) determining the applicability f baseline emissin prjectins, (2) designing prject interventin strategies, (3) assessing leakage and nn-permanence risks, and (4) evaluating the applicability f specific accunting methdlgies apprved under carbn standards Baseline Scenari f frest cver and carbn stck changes What are prjected baseline defrestatin trends? Indicate what evidence exists fr all assumptins used. What are majr uncertainties in prjecting these develpments, and are there majr data gaps? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 4 f 12

6 Can defrestatin trends be derived frm a suitable reference area (i.e. with similar biphysical, sci-ecnmic, cultural and access cnditins and f size at least as large as prject area)? What is the size and lcatin f this ptential reference area? What is the carbn stck f affected areas? What is the carbn stck after land-use change (e.g., in swidden agricultural systems r permanent crplands)? What carbn pls need t be cnsidered fr this calculatin f emissin factrs (carbn stcks in frested and pst-cnversin areas)? What are ttal baseline emissins? 4.4. Prject Scenari & Net Carbn Benefits By hw much can the abve baseline emissins be lwered in thery, and in practice? I.e. what is a realistic assumptin f the level f prject interventin and effectiveness /perfrmance? Link this t assessment f nn-permanence risks belw (many f these may apply t immediate prject perfrmance) Perfrm a quantified mdeling exercise t develp scenaris fr grss carbn benefit generatin, i.e. prject scenari cmpared t baseline emissins. (This will be the basis fr carbn credit generatin and financial revenue prjectins) 4.5. Additinality f Prject Activities Can additinality be demnstrated fllwing requirements f the VCS r CDM additinality tls (small-scale, large-scale as applicable)? Which barriers exist (e.g., cultural, access t capital)? What is the case fr financial additinality (IRRs etc.)? Can these barriers r financial assumptins be dcumented in a credible and transparent way t cnvince external auditrs? What is the likely frmal start date f additinal prject activities? 4.6. Leakage Risks & Prject Emissins What types f leakage are likely? Cnsider in particular ptential risks frm activity shifting and timber market leakage Fr prjects reducing degradatin (frm legal r illegal wd harvest): what are leakage risks frm displaced timber and wdfuel harvest? What are likely reductins in the harvested wd prducts pl? What actrs are likely t be invlved in activity shifting leakage? E.g., lcal agents vs. immigrants (discunts may be required fr leakage caused by immigrants) What culd a leakage belt lk like, and can it be defined fr this prject? What is the verall scale f ptential emissins frm leakage? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 5 f 12

7 What activities are prpsed t mitigate leakage risks? Are these likely t be effective (based n experiences in cmparable prject situatins)? What percentage f leakage may be prevented? Are any significant emissins likely t be created thrugh prject implementatin (e.g., frm fertilizer applicatin, sil disturbance, burning f vegetatin fr tree planting)? Nte that emissins created utside the prject bundary are cnsidered as leakage. What are net emissin reductins after accunting fr leakage and prject emissins. Please build n the abve mdeling exercise (grss carbn benefits minus leakage and prject emissins). (Nte: Nn-permanence assessment is nt carried ut here but rather in the Risks sectin belw.) 5. RISKS TO GENERATING CARBON BENEFITS 5.1. Risk assessment Frank analysis f the ptential risks and uncertainties that may affect the viability f the prpsed prject (ideally based n VCS AFOLU Nn-Permanence Risk Tl). Overall, hw realistic is it t change current land-use trend, e.g., lwer baseline defrestatin in prject area? Hw well d the currently envisined activities match the underlying defrestatin drivers? Internal Risks Prject Management, including need fr nging enfrcement t prtect carbn stcks and capacity f management team. Financial viability Opprtunity csts and assciated pressures f alternative land uses Prject lngevity based n legal agreements r requirements External risks Land tenure, including wnership and resurce access/use rights Cmmunity engagement, cnsultatin f husehlds inside and within 20 kms f prject bundaries Plitical risk, based n Wrld Bank Institute Wrldwide Gvernance Indicatrs, adjusted if cuntry is engaged in internatinal REDD+ readiness initiatives Natural risks Significance and likelihd f fire, pest and disease utbreaks, extreme weather events such as hurricanes, and gelgical risk such as earthquakes and vlcanes Feasibility Assessment Template Page 6 f 12

8 5.2. Risk mitigatin and discunts Are risk mitigatin strategies planned? Are they feasible t implement? What is the likely discunt fr risk buffer (VCS please fllw the AFOLU Nn-Permanence Risk Tl accrding t guidelines) 6. FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY This step shuld cnsider the verall financial feasibility f the prject pprtunity at a specific REDD site. Key is the carbn finance viability, i.e. net discunted carbn credit revenues (taking int accunt transactin csts) must be sufficient t cver implementatin and/r pprtunity csts Carbn revenue ptential What is the verall net carbn credit ptential (carbn benefits after deducting leakage and nnpermanence risks)? What are grss revenues, cnsidering different price scenaris in target market? What transactin csts can be expected (baseline data cllectin, PDD, mnitring, validatin & verificatin, gvernment apprvals and fees, registratin, pssibly brkerage fees)? Nte: It may be valuable t highlight cash flws during first 5-10 years cnsidering likely hrizn f prject participants and discunt rates What are the verall carbn-cycle related upfrnt financing needs? What is prject s ptential tax liability frm carbn and nn-carbn revenues? What are the main risks and surces f uncertainty (sensitivity analysis)? 6.2. Nn-Carbn Revenues Will prject implementatin lead t ther revenues apart frm carbn credit generatin, e.g. frm timber sales r agricultural prductin? On what scale and in which time-frame? What are the main risks and surces f uncertainty (sensitivity analysis)? 6.3. Opprtunity & Implementatin Csts What are the main csts f prject implementatin (taking int accunt mechanisms fr cmpensatin fr pprtunity csts)? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 7 f 12

9 Hw d implementatin csts cmpare t ptential carbn revenues? Hw large is the revenue timing gap? Are there bvius surces t bridge it? Des initial financial analysis indicate that basic csts and revenues, frm carbn market revenues and ther prducts, are ptentially attractive t bth investrs and prject participants? Are net carbn market and ther revenues likely t be sufficient t justify changes in land use fr landwners (e.g., versus pprtunity csts)? 6.4. Attractiveness t Buyers and Markets This step shuld assess the ptential attractiveness f the particular prject (site, activities, stakehlders; standard and methdlgy, carbn credit generatin prfile) t buyers in key markets. Including: Vluntary market buyers, pre-cmpliance value fr REDD (pst-2012 UNFCCC, US r ther reginal markets), interim nn-market finance surces. Als briefly refer t belw scial impacts and bidiversity benefits. 7. SOCIAL AND COMMUNITY IMPACTS Key t prject success, sustainability and marketability are the scial and equity impacts f the prject. What is the ptential fr pverty alleviatin, what are mechanisms fr stakehlder participatin and capacity building, gvernance and ptential effects n resurce access and/r land tenure. Hw will varius prject interventins impact sci-ecnmic dynamics in prject area? Hw can ptential negative impacts be reduced and benefits created? What is the strategy fr benefit r revenue sharing, including financing f underlying activities (e.g. agricultural investments) and direct payments? If feasible, an initial frmal Scial Impact Assessment will be carried ut t determine key pprtunities and risks and t infrm prject design frm the utset. 8. IMPLEMENTATION CAPACITY & POTENTIAL PROJECT PARTICIPANTS 8.1. Descriptin f Participating Organizatins What is the likely lead rganizatin and wh are critical partners in implementing the underlying prject? What are the respective rles and respnsibilities f the varius partners; what are their key strengths, capacity and track recrd? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 8 f 12

10 NB: Make sure t match this t the implementatin needs as defined by prject interventin strategy 8.2. Human Resurces Available t Wrk n the Prject Describe the key types f expertise that will need t be mbilized fr prject develpment, indicating resurces available within the lead rganizatin, frm partners and/r thse which will need t be secured frm third parties. Include cnsideratin fr technical experts, gvernment liaisn, cmmunity engagement, marketing partners, etc. 9. CONCLUSIONS & NEXT STEPS Please utline the next steps necessary t make a decisin n prject cntinuatin and strategy. This may include additinal feasibility analysis steps, preparatin f underlying prject activities, marketing t buyers r c-investrs, and/r frmal prject develpment under a carbn standard. Alternatively, the feasibility assessment may indicate that the prject may nt be viable frm a carbn market perspective. In this case, the belw steps may be adjusted twards evaluating an alternative funding surce, r twards shifting the fcus t different prject pprtunities Summary f Feasibility and Risks What is the verall picture f prject feasibility? What are key risks and uncertainties that are apparent frm this analysis? Please cnsider the fllwing dimensins Implementatin and perfrmance risks Cnfidence (based n experience and analysis) f effectiveness f land-use incentive strategy and prject interventins t reduce defrestatin Capacity t implement prject interventins; ptential time lags Oppsitin f gvernment r lcal stakehlders t certain prject aspects Methdlgical risks Legal Risks Key apparent data challenges r applicability issues with existing methdlgies Key validatin and verificatin risks What are ptential issues with legal aspects f prject implementatin: land tenure and cntrl ver prject area, legislatin relevant t planned prject interventins? What are legal risks t carbn rights and carbn sales (including rights t cmmercialize credits)? Financial and market risks Feasibility Assessment Template Page 9 f 12

11 In additin t general carbn market uncertainties, what factrs are imprtant specifically t this prject (type, lcatin, etc.)? Particular funding gaps, delays in ptential revenues versus upfrnt expenditures Cnfidence in estimating implementatin csts (can prjected revenues finance necessary interventins? Is c-finance available?) T what extent can the abve risks be mitigated? D strategies exist, r can they be develped? Please als cnsider impacts f engaging cmmercial and technical partners early n and their capacity t share in these risks Next Steps fr Better Assessing Feasibility & Taking Decisins The current assessment may reveal data insufficiencies that d nt allw fr a cnfident determinatin f prject viability in the current carbn market cntext. If this is the case, and if there are strng indicatins that ptential carbn benefits justify this, a decisin may be made t invest int an expanded feasibility assessment. E.g., t generate better baseline data, determine verall land area that culd be brught int prject; thrugh screen against requirements f different methdlgies, etc. If methdlgical challenges create disprprtinate risks fr pursuing frmal prject develpment, but if substantial carbn benefits seem t exist, nn-market r ther innvative finance and prject develpment ptins may be utlined Next Steps fr Stakehlder Engagement and Underlying Prject If prject is t be pursued, steps may be utlined fr better determining the interest f main stakehlders; prpsed prcess fr stakehlder engagement Key steps in designing and planning underlying prject activities, including engagement /cntracting f partner rganizatins with specific expertise (e.g. agriculture) Next Steps fr Frmal Prject Develpment If decisin is made t prceed with frmal prject develpment (based n a psitive feasibility assessment), describe data items needed fr ptential PDD develpment (e.g., baseline study, leakage-driver assessment) What wuld be a realistic (cnservative) timeline fr achieving key milestnes in prject develpment? Prvide a graph r table. Will a cmmercial prject develper be engaged? 9.5. Ptential fr replicating r up-scaling the prject activities What is the ptential assuming viability f prject idea fr up-scaling the prject, by expanding the area in the current prject site, r designing similar prjects in ther parts f the cuntry? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 10 f 12

12 Wuld it be feasible t cnsider bundling r Prgramme f Activities appraches t reduce transactin csts? Culd the prject serve as a pilt t infrm natinal strategies? 9.6. Near-term funding utlk / seed-funding Please summarize briefly secured (r expected) cunterpart c-financing fr prject develpment. Are there any initial cntacts with ptential buyers r investrs? Are upfrnt payments fr ptential frward-sales f carbn credits achievable and/r desirable (cnsidering price discunts)? Feasibility Assessment Template Page 11 f 12