Status, Issues and Perspectives of the Global Shrimp Farming Industry:

Transcription

1 Status, Issues and Perspectives of the Global Shrimp Farming Industry: Opportunities for U.S. Shrimp Producers Darryl Jory Indiana Indoor Shrimp Production Brainstorming Session Indiana Soybean Alliance, Indianapolis, IN April 23, 2014 COMMERCIAL AQUACULTURE

2 SHRIMP FARMING Research started in Japan in 1930 s. Modern shrimp farming started in the early 1970s. Became significant in early 1990s. Cultured in over 60 countries today. > 50% of global shrimp supplies from aquaculture. Employment for millions of people. Development of poor areas. Generates US$ billion in global commerce. Low-fat; high-protein; highly unsaturated fatty acids can help in formation of high-density lipids, or good cholesterol. We import most of what we consume!

3 Topics: Production Technology Global Production & Trends Products & Markets Issues Perspectives Opportunity for U.S. Producers

4 Shrimp Farming: Production Technology

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6 Hatchery Indian Ocean

7 Farm

8 Processing and Value-Adding Plant

9 FARMED SHRIMP BUSINESS MODEL Broodstock Integrated Production Chain Larviculture Manufactured aquafeeds Technology Management Cost Risk Yields Economic return Nursery? Growout Processing

10 SEEDSTOCK PRODUCTION Broodstock Management Larviculture

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12 Seedstock P. monodon PL 18 INVE

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18 Larval Feeds

19 FARMED SHRIMP BUSINESS MODEL Broodstock Integrated Production Chain Larviculture Manufactured aquafeeds Technology Management Cost Risk Yields Economic return Nursery? Growout Processing

20 Nursery Systems

21 PreCría Intensiva

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23 Precria Brasil

24 Shrimp PL growing in concrete nursery tanks before transfer to earthen, growout ponds (NE Brazil) Precria Brasil

25 STOCK LARGEST ANIMALS POSSIBLE!

26 FARMED SHRIMP BUSINESS MODEL Broodstock Integrated Production Chain Larviculture Manufactured aquafeeds Technology Management Cost Risk Yields Economic return Nursery? Growout Processing

27 Growout Production Technology

28 Shrimp Growout Technology Extensive Semi-Intensive Intensive Super-Intensive Seedstock source Stocking density Water exchange Water fertilization Supplemental feeding Aeration Pond liners Probiotics Technology Management

29 Shrimp Culture Systems: Extensive

30 Shrimp Culture Systems: Semi-Intensive

31 Shrimp Culture Systems: Intensive and Super Intensive

32 CP farm

33 PRODUCTION INTENSITY vs. MANAGEMENT NEEDS

34 Shrimp Farming: Global Production & Trends

35 Million MT World Production of Shrimp Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Aquaculture accounted for 54% of world shrimp supplies in % % 28% Capture Fisheries Source: FAO (2013). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei. Aquaculture

36 Million MT GOAL 2013 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture Production by World Region: Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia Annual growth rate: 4.8% -5.7%: %: Projected annual growth rate: 6.9% EMS/AHPNS initially surfaced in China in 2009 and then spread to Vietnam and Thailand. Global production is expected to be about 15% below the 2011 levels Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

37 Asia Production ~2.8 mmt 82% of total China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia India Bangladesh > 85% P. vannamei BRIGGS

38 Latin America Ecuador Mexico Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala Brazil Venezuela Production: 534,000 MT 16% of total 100% P. vannamei BRIGGS

39 Rest of World Saudi Arabia Madagascar Australia Iran Production: ~50,000 MT 1% of total 15% P. vannamei BRIGGS

40 Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: Million MT Impact of AHPNS: China, Thailand and Mexico report the largest declines in production in Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East / North Africa Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

41 Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: vs Average Annual Growth Rate 36% 30% 24% 18% % 12% 6% 0% -6% -12% 3.2% -0.4% 7.0% -6.3% 6.6% 4.3% 1.4% 10.0% Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East / North Africa 5.0% Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

42 Million MT Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: Major Producers EMS related declines are expected for China (-26%), Thailand (-47%) and Vietnam (-43%). India and Indonesia expect substantial increases in production : +42 and +136%, respectively), assuming no major impact from EMS/AHPNS China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

43 Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: vs Average Annual Growth Rate 35% 30% 25% 20% % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 10.7% 9.2% 7.0% 6.6% 8.1% 2.9% 0.5% -0.7% -6.3% -5.8% -11.7% China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Bangladesh Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

44 Shrimp Aquaculture in Latin America: Major Producers Thousand MT Mexico heavily impacted by AHPNS in 2013: production down by 60%, with partial recovery afterwards. Brazil expects to reach 100,000 tons by Ecuador Mexico Brazil Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

45 Shrimp Aquaculture in Latin America: Thousand MT Most countries in Latin America expect to increase production by 2015 with the exception of Colombia, where the industry is expected to contract Honduras Peru Guatemala Nicaragua Venezuela Colombia Belize Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

46 Shrimp Aquaculture in Other Reporting Countries: Thousand MT Fenneropenaeus indicus; P. japonicus; P. semisulcatus. P. monodon P. monodon and merguiensis P. stylirostris 0 Egypt Madagascar Australia New Caledonia Sources: FAO (2013) for ; GOAL (2013) for M. rosenbergii is not included.

47 World Production of Shrimp by Species Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined Million MT P. vannamei is the most important species in the world, with virtually all production coming from aquaculture. Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei. 4 % 28 % 40 % Others/NS P. merguiensis P. chinensis Trachypenaeus curvirostris Pandalus borealis 3.0 Acetes japonicus 2.0 P. monodon 1.0 P. vannamei Source: FAO (2013). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. Freshwater production of P. vannamei in China is included.

48 Penaeus (Litopenaeus) vannamei

49 Shrimp Farming: Products & Markets

50 Main product presentations are: Head on shell on (HOSO) Shell on (SO or "green headless shrimp") Peeled tail on (PTO) Peeled undeveined (PUD) Peeled and deveined (P&D) Butterfly tail on (BTTY-TO). European and Asian markets prefer the HOSO presentation (a whole shrimp), while the American shrimp market prefers the others.

51 Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture Production by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for Asia 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 15% 6% 8% 3% 11% 12% 8% 12% 13% 9% 25% 22% 20% 19% 18% 15% 23% 28% 18% 28% 35% 30% 10% 18% 22% 19% 22% 19% 33% 24% 17% 11% 6% 9% GOAL 2007 GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011 GOAL 2012 Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled Green / Head-off Green / Head-on

52 Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture Production by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas 100% 80% 60% 6% 7% 7% 8% 41% 53% 46% 45% 4% 12% 31% 3% 6% 34% Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled 40% 20% 45% 40% 44% 46% 50% 57% Green / Head-off Green / Head-on 0% GOAL 2007 GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011 GOAL 2012

53 Trends in Trade: US, EU (France, Spain) 53

54 U.S. Shrimp Imports Down over 15% since 2011 After peaking in 2010 at 203,000 tons, imports from Thailand declined in 2011 and 2012 and are expected to fall even further in 2013 to around 90,000 tons. Ecuador, Indonesia, and India are picking up some of the slack. Imports from Mexico have also fallen. Source: USDC/NMFS (2013) * Estimate

55 Thousand MT Spanish Shrimp Imports Down 22% since * Others India Honduras Morocco Senegal Thailand Nicaragua China Ecuador Argentina Reflecting the difficult economic conditions in the country, the Spanish market contracted substantially in 2012 and is expected to contract even further in 2013 (-20% relative to 2011). Argentina and Ecuador currently supply around 50% of the market. Source: Eurostat (2013) * Estimate

56 Thousand MT French Shrimp Imports Down 3% since Others Vietnam Thailand Venezuela Madagascar Spain Netherlands Belgium India Ecuador * Ecuador s exports to France have increased dramatically since 2001, currently accounting for approximately 30% of the import market. Ecuador is also increasing shipments to Asian markets (China, Vietnam). Source: Eurostat (2013) * Estimate

57 Million MT Shrimp Aquaculture Production & Shrimp Exports from China Shrimp Production (Freshwater) Shrimp Production (Marine) Shrimp Exports (Product Weight) Sources: FAO (2011); GOAL (2001). Export figures for 2009 and 2010 are estimates.

58 Production Conclusion 2013 production is 15% less than % less than the expected for trajectory for 2013 based on the past decade Disease Biggest Risk, undermines market development, Under-investment in disease management 58

59 Shrimp Farming: Issues

60 Industry Faces Many Issues Costs (fuels, ingredients - FM/FO - biofuels) Competition Protectionism & Antidumping Seafood safety Traceability Sustainability Environmental issues Biosecurity Inland expansion Diseases Species introductions Resource limitations (water, land, labor, etc.) Domestication Price volatility / uncertainty Ingredients (GMO, others) Social aspects Commerce regulations (bioterrorism, COOL) Animal welfare Production inefficiencies New technologies Technology packages Novel financing / professional investors Official support Integration, diversification and consolidation of industry

61 Major Challenges to Aquaculture Growth 1. Disease & health management 2. Feed ingredient availability 3. Environmental limits 4. Investment capital 5. Market support

62 Challenge 1: Disease & Health Management 62

63 Shrimp Farming History Characterized by Diseases Year Countries Disease Impact 1982 Ecuador BP Mortality in hatchery 1988 Taiwan YHV 80,000 to 25,000 mt 1992 China WSSV 220,000 to 50,000 mt 1994 Ecuador, Mexico 2002 Thailand, Indonesia Brazil, Indonesia TSV MSGV IMNV TSV resistant stylirostris sent to Brunei (2000) Reduced profitability Reduced profitability 2006 Belize, Mexico, PvNv Reduced profitability LIGHTNER

64 The Wall Street Journal Reports on EMS/APHNS - July 11, 2013

65 ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO VIRAL DISEASES VIRUS SINCE PRODUCTION LOSSES USD MILLION IHHNV- Americas (1) 1981 $ 500-1,000 YHV Asia (1) 1991 $ 500 TSV-Americas (1) 1991/92 $ 1,500 TSV-Asia (1) 1999 $ 1,000 WSSV Asia (1) 1992/93 $ > 6,000 WSSV Americas (1) 1999 $ > 2,000 IMNV Brasil e Indonesia (1) 2002 $ 1,200 EMS Asia (2) 2009 $3,500!!! Sources: (1) Dr. Donald Lightner (2) Dr. Matt Briggs (3) Others CHING

66 The average U.S. consumer ate 14.4 pounds of seafood in 2012, the last year for which figures are available, down from 15 pounds in 2011 and a record high 16.6 pounds consumed in That's far less than the average 82 pounds of chicken, 57 pounds of beef and 46 pounds of pork. Americans consume in a year.

67 Challenge 2: Availability of Feed Ingredients 67

68 FEED SUPPLY - Global compound aquafeed production has been growing at an average compound rate of over 10.7% per year since 1995, - Production increased from 7.61 million tons in 1995 to over 35 million tons in 2010, - Is expected to grow to 50 million tons by 2015, and over 70 million tons by Tacon

69 Direction of global production of major nutrient sources NUTRIENT SOURCES FROM FISHING ACTIVITIES OILSEED MEALS, PULSES & OILS AQUATIC ANIMAL PROTEIN MEALS & LIPIDS 40 essential nutrients LAND ANIMAL PROTEIN MEALS & FATS CEREALS INCLUDING BY-PRODUCT MEALS & OILS MICROBIAL FEED INGREDIENTS NUTRIENT SOURCES FROM AGRICULTURAL FARMING ACTIVITIES Tacon

70 Shrimp Farming: Perspectives

71 MORE EFFICIENT PRODUCTION

72 Many New Technologies Developed To Improve Production Efficiency & Sustainability Health Management: Improved detection of viruses Biosecurity Development of SPF Lines Immunostimulants and Probiotics Selective Breeding: Domestication Specific Pathogen Resistance Breeding for performance Use of genetic markers

73 Many Technologies Developed To Improve Production Efficiency & Sustainability Growout Technology: Reduced water exchange Bacterial floc Nurseries Inland culture Polyculture Nutrition: Improved feed manufacturing Nutritional requirements & new ingredients

74 NEWER TECHNOLOGIES

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76 Selective Breeding & Genetic Improvement

77 BIOFLOC SYSTEMS

78 RECIRCULATION TECHNOLOGY (RAS) 78

79 WHAT ABOUT THE U.S. SHRIMP MARKET?

80 U.S. - Top Seafoods Consumed

81 Seafood lbs

82 U.S. SHRIMP SUPPLY Dependence on Imports URNER BARRY

83 URNER BARRY SHRIMP IMPORT CYCLES BY MAIN SUPPLIERS

84 Main Suppliers Thailand and Vietnam having serious shrimp disease problems Ecuador Increasing production, but. URNER BARRY

85 Main Suppliers URNER BARRY

86 URNER BARRY

87 OPPORTUNITY FOR U.S. PRODUCERS

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91 New Shrimp Production Paradigm

92 New Shrimp Production Paradigm: The Opportunity Established, large global markets that can be expanded further. Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS / APHNS) disease is a game-changer over US$ 3.5 billions in global losses since Supply not meeting demand (EMS) + demand can expand (established and new markets). New, biosecure, indoor = controlled production technologies available several competitive advantages.

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94 New Shrimp Production Paradigm: The Technology Year-Round Production of Fresh/Chilled/Frozen Shrimp Near Major U.S. Markets

95 Shrimp-in-U.S. SWOT Analysis Strengths Large, established market. 25% of seafood consumed. Large technological base. Best aquafeed technology & ingredients. Many competitive advantages. Opportunities Promote wholesome, healthy, nutritious, no water, no ABXs US grown, US product. Increase demand (2x meals/year) = 300 million lbs more needed! Automate many procedures. Weaknesess Very limited PL supply. Limited niche markets. High cost of processing. Regulatory/fiscal environment. Threats Overseas industry recovers quickly. Cannot compete with int l commodity prices. Diseases.

96 STRATEGIES Moving Forward New paradigm needed. Production: Adopt and improve indoor/ras/biofloc technology. Improve selective breeding programs. Improve feeds and nutrition. Market: Promote home-grown shrimp consumption. US can be a shrimp exporter! Industry: Consolidate. Organize: need a voice. Strategic alliances wholesalers, retailers.

97 Aquaculture, not the internet, represents the most promising investment opportunity of the 21st century. Peter Drucker Nobel Laureate and Economist

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99 COMMERCIAL AQUACULTURE THANK YOU!

100 URNER BARRY

101 Conclusions Shrimp industry has developed tremendously. It faces old and new challenges (production, market, financial). The main production trends are emphasis for more efficiency at every level of the production and marketing chain, and industry consolidation. The main market trends are creation of new markets, internal and external, and increased traceability and certification. Need to transition to industrial perspective to improve profitability and sustainability, primarily in areas of: Domestication and selective breeding Nutrition and feeds Disease management Controlled production systems Increasing market demand for safe and healthy products generated in a responsible and sustainable manner will require increased traceability and certification.

102 SECTION BREAK PENTAIR PRESENTATION TITLE

103 PENTAIR BELIZE

104 Selective Breeding & Genetic Improvement PENTAIR