The organic market in Germany and chances for Estonian producers and processors DIANA SCHAACK, AMI TALLINN,

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1 The organic market in Germany and chances for Estonian producers and processors DIANA SCHAACK, AMI TALLINN,

2 Agenda Presentation of AMI Insides into the organic market in Germany Market Production Imports European market and organic farming Estonian organic farming and market Market chances for Estonian producers and processors Beef Cereals Protein crops Berries/vegetables Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

3 The AMI an overview 2009 founded 16 shareholders 3 offices 45 persons Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

About the AMI We analyse and judge all factors at the agricultural markets that influence prices supply Production and supply prices relations between products Harvests crop developments weather

4 About the AMI We analyse and judge all factors at the agricultural markets that influence prices supply Production and supply prices relations between products Harvests crop developments weather conditions demand growth of population economic growth consumer prices, structure of consumption income bioenergy other factors equipment prices energy and freight costs currancy exchange rates foreign trade climate change Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

5 Daten, Fakten und Analysen für das Agribusiness Meat and animals Cereals, oilseeds, potatoes Flowers and ornamental plants Market and costumers research Milk and dairy Organic farming and market Energy, NaWaRo fertiliser, feed Foreign trade Obst & Gemüse Eggs and poultry Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

6 AMI Organic department 2 3 persons Weekly/monthly producer price data collection for organic raw products: fruit, vegetables, potatoes, cereals, protein crops, milk, animals for slaughter, eggs Monthly Market analysises on these products Yearbook AMI Marktbilanz Ökolandbau tables and graphs Annual survey among the control bodies about land use and animal husbandry Annual estimation of farm sales value Annual estimation on organic imports of raw products Annual market estimation with the help of the task force organic markt (Arbeitskreis Bio-Markt) 6 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

7 Organic Market and Production in Germany

8 Organic sales in Germany in billion EUR excl. Catering 11.1 % % % 6% 1,15 share -1 % 1,09 Growth 1,10 Growth rate rate 4, % 4, % 4,76 55 % Other sales channels (Bakeries, butchers, fruit & vegetable shops, farmer s markets, small farm shops, Online shops, health food shops, petrol stations) Supermarkets (incl. drug stores) 2, % 2, % 2,71 32 % source: Arbeitskreis Biomarkt based on GfK, Nielsen, BioVista and Klaus Braun Natural Food Stores (incl. big farm shops) 8 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

cheese 5 % oils & fats 3% eggs 5% bread & bakery 8% meat & meat products 9%

9 Fresh products dominate the market Sales of organic food by product groups in Germany 2015 in % DE Dry products 38 % fruit & vegetable 23% milk & dairy 9% cheese 5 % oils & fats 3% eggs 5% bread & bakery 8% meat & meat products 9% AMI 2016/OL-246 AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI-Analysis based on GfK-household panel

Organic shares of the different markets in % of sales volume and sales value, 2015 poultry meat products red meat milk drinks cheese cream products butter yoghurt fruit vegetable potatoes drinking

10 Organic shares of the different markets in % of sales volume and sales value, 2015 poultry meat products red meat milk drinks cheese cream products butter yoghurt fruit vegetable potatoes drinking milk vegetable oil flour eggs 1,2 2,9 1,2 2,2 1,7 2,4 1,7 2,6 2,3 4,1 3,3 4,7 2,8 4,8 5,2 7,3 5,7 7,4 6,3 5,0 6,3 5,4 7,5 9,2 9,6 10,6 11,5 sales volumes sales values 15,3 18,4 19,5 10 Source: AMI-Analysis based on GfK-householdpanel

bananas cucumbers carrots patotoes 1-2,5kg packs fresh whole milk tetra pack butter wheat flour 39 44

11 Consumer price supplements for organic Price supplements for organic products compared to conventional products, 2015, in %, in Germany minced beef mixed minced meat chicken escalope eggs 6-12 pieces apples bananas cucumbers carrots patotoes 1-2,5kg packs fresh whole milk tetra pack butter wheat flour AMI 2016/VB-181 AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI-Consumer Price comparison

12 18,0% 16,0% 16,3% 9,8% 5,3% 4,6% 5,1% 2,2% 4,8% 4,9% 4,3% 4,6% ,0% 12,0% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% ,5% ,8% ,0% ,3% ,9% Organic Area grows again 2015 Organic area (1'000 ha) Growth rate (%) 12 Source: BLE Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

13 Organic Land Use in Germany 2015 in Germany in thousand hectares cropland Cereals 600 Fodder Cereals rye wheat Grassland total 1.09 Mio. ha Crop land Protein crops Vegetables oats triticale 24 spelt barley Permanent cultures 11 maize AMI 2016/OL-116a AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI

14 Organic Animals in Germany 2015 Organic share of the total market Production in Tonnes sheep and goats meat eggs ,20 billion pc. 8,9 12,0 beef 4, milk 2,3 732 poultry pork 1,0 0, AMI 2016/OL-118a AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI, BLE

15 Import share of organic cereals and oilseeds in Germany 2013/14 und 2014/15 in percent sunflower seeds * soy beans * field peas maize wheat protein crops / /15 cereals total oats barley rye * incl. Oil Cakes Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 15 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

16 Import share of organic fruit & vegetables in Germany 2013/14 and 2014/15 in percent bananas sweet pepper tomatoes vegetable for fruit cubumbers courgette onions carrots pumpkins apples early potatoes potatoes total potatoes / /15 Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 16 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

17 Import share of different organic animal products in Germany 2013/14 and 2014/15 in percent cream cheese butter drinking milk milk equivalent cream pork / /15 youghurt beef eggs Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 17 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

18 Organic Market and Production in Europe

19 Organic sales in the European countries in Europe* 2014 Germany France United Kingdom Italy Switzerland Sweden Austria Spain Netherlands Denmark Belgium Norwegen Million EUR in EUR per person *excluding catering AMI 2016/OL-119 AMI-informiert.de Source: FiBL/AMI

Republic Greece Romania Portugal 246 241 581 552 519 496 478 407 1.969 1.493 1.362 1.

20 Organic Area in the EU-28 in ha, 2015 Spain Italy France Germany Poland Austria Sweden United Kingdom Czech Republic Greece Romania Portugal EU-28 in million ha 9,0 9,4 10,0 10,1 10,2 11, AMI 2016/OL-217 AMI-informiert.de Source: Eurostat, FiBL, national statistics

EU-28: Organic land use Agricultural Area,

Permanent crops 5,2 4,8 1,2 In total 11,2

area in the EU-28 darunter: Olives 0,5 feeds

oilseeds 0,2 vegetables 0,1 * Including nuts

21 EU-28: Organic land use Agricultural Area, 2015, in million ha grassland cropland Permanent crops 5,2 4,8 1,2 In total 11,2 million ha these are 6,4% Of the Agricultural area in the EU-28 darunter: Olives 0,5 feeds 1,9 fruit* 0,3 cereals 1,7 wineyards 0,3 oilseeds 0,2 vegetables 0,1 * Including nuts AMI 2016/OL-121 AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI, FiBL, Eurostat

22 Organic Market and Production in Estonia

675 total 155.806 ha cropland 71.315 protein crops oilseeds 3.581 4.321 rye barley 3.

23 Organic land use in Estonia 2015 in Estonia in thousand hectares Cropland Getreide, davon feed oats grassland cereals wheat (incl. Spelt) total ha cropland protein crops oilseeds rye barley Other cereals Permanent crops AMI 2016/OL-244 AMI-informiert.de Source: Eurostat

24 Estonian Organic Market Latest estimates worth 22 million EUR One of the highest shares according to the area in Europe 16.5 % 2014 Develop your internal market! Use these major trends Regional/local food Seasonal food Fair food Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

25 Exports? Decide between Delivering raw or semi-finished products into an anonymous market in large scales Or delivering fine nordic specialities (special rye bread, jams, mushrooms certain dairy products ) Buyers Traders or processors, that desperately need certain raw material in Germany or other countries (cereals, protein crops, berries) Natural food whole salers that offer their sortiment to the natural food stores Traceability and long term cooperations are becoming more and more important to processors and consumers Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

26 Chance No.1 beef

27 Organic beef: German Market by delivering countries 2014/2015 Denmark 7% Ireland 2% Austria 1,8% Market volume: t Import volume: t Import share: 11 % Germany 89% Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics Einterprise Estonia, Tallinn

Organic beef production in the EU Average stock in

000 pieces, 2015 Spain 177 France 152 Italy 103

2015 910 Austria Greece Finland 26 24 21 791 829

28 Organic beef production in the EU Average stock in the EU countries, in pieces, 2015 Spain 177 France 152 Italy 103 United Kingdom 93 Denmark 82 Germany Sweden Austria Greece Finland Estonia AMI 2016/OL-206 AMI-informiert.de Source: Eurostat

29 Chance No.2 Cereals

30 Organic grain harvests in Germany in t wheat rye oats triticale barley spelt -5,2-16,4-4,6-9,4-0,7 vs in percent , insgesamt AMI 2016/OL-243 AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI

31 Cereals: Import volumes 2014/2015 business year july 2014 june 2015 Croatia 1% Finland 2% Netherlands 2% Rusia 1% Kazakhstan 1% other 7% Romania 17% Import Volumes: t Import Share: 24 % Austria 4% Poland 7% Italy 7% Ukraine 17% Czech Rep. 8% Slovakia 8% Lithuania 8% Hungary 10% Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 31 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

Organic Cereals in the EU Area of organic cerals in the EU, in 1.

32 Organic Cereals in the EU Area of organic cerals in the EU, in ha Germany Italy Spain France Poland Austria Sweden Lithuania Estonia Other countries EU-28 in ha AMI 2016/OL-248 AMI-informiert.de Quelle: Eurostat

Organic wheat (soft and spelt) in the EU Area of organic wheat in the EU, in 1.

countries 2015 2014 6 8 14 29 42 25 38 38 36 33 34 30 48 57 95 73 83 77 EU-28 in 1.

33 Organic wheat (soft and spelt) in the EU Area of organic wheat in the EU, in ha Italy Germany France Romania Spain Austria Sweden Lithuania Estonia Other countries EU-28 in ha AMI 2016/OL-249 AMI-informiert.de Quelle: Eurostat

34 Wheat: Imports from different countries 2014/2015 incl. Spelt and Durum Kazakhstan 2% Russia 2% Poland 2% Latvia 1% Croatia 1% Spain 1% other 1% Import volumes: t Import share: 34 % Austria 5% Ukraine 20% Lithuania 7% Czech Rep 8% Slowakia 9% Romania 18% Italy 10% Hungary 13% Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 34 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

Organic oats in the EU Area of organic oats in the EU, in 1.

35 Organic oats in the EU Area of organic oats in the EU, in ha Spain Finland Sweden Germany Italy Poland Lithuania Latvia Estonia Other countries EU-28 in ha AMI 2016/OL-250 AMI-informiert.de Source: Eurostat

36 Oats: Import volumes 2014/2015 business year july 2014 june 2015 Czech Rep. 4% other 2% Import volumes: t Import share: 23 % Denmark 7% Latvia 6% Poland 29% Estonia 12% Finland 16% Lithuania 24% Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 36 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

37 Chance No.3 Protein crops

38 Harvests of organic protein crops In Germany, in t Field beans vs in percent -2, Field peas ,5 total Lupines , AMI 2016/OL-245 AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI

000 ha Frankreich Spanien Italien Deutschland Litauen Finnland Österreich Schweden Estonia Weitere Länder 2015

39 KT1309 KT1308 Organic protein crops in the EU Anbaufläche von Bio-Körnerleguminosen in den wichtigsten Lieferländern der EU, in ha Frankreich Spanien Italien Deutschland Litauen Finnland Österreich Schweden Estonia Weitere Länder ,3 3,2 15,0 14,4 13,5 12,3 12,9 10,2 68,7 57,7 39,6 41,2 37,4 29,2 33,4 31,3 EU-28 in ha 32,7 27, ,0 32,8 AMI 2016/OL-251 AMI-informiert.de Quelle: Eurostat

40 Folie 39 KT1308 KT1309 Bitte maximal 8 Posten (7 Länder und 1 Posten weitere Länder ), sollten es mehr sein, bitte eine Tabelle anhängen Kemper, Theresa; Farbabstufungen (RGB-Werte): ( ) Kemper, Theresa;

41 Organic Protein crops imports business years July-June, volume in Tonnes 34,9 other 30,2 3,5 18,0 0,9 2,1 16,3 0,5 2,2 17,7 0,7 2,3 14,5 13,2 14,1 20,9 1,2 2,5 16,9 2,8 4,9 22,1 7,0 24,0 Lentils Lupines Field beans Field peas 2009/ / / / / /15 Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

42 German market for organic field peas by countries 2014/2015 in percent Romania 1% Estonia 2% other 12% Market Volume: t Import share: 61 % Germany 39% Lithuania 46% Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

43 Chance No.4 Berries and vegetables

44 Vegetable market volumes 2015 in Germany, in percent Organic Vegetable Total Vegetable carrots 36,6 16,3 tomatoes 11,7 tomatoes 11,5 carrots 7,5 onions onions 10,6 7,4 cucumbers cucumbers 10,3 5,2 sweet pepper 3,0 3,0 courgette pumkins sweet pepper 8,5 iceberg lettuce asparagus 4,1 3,0 2,9 asparagus cauliflower 2,7 1,5 cabbage courgette 2,3 1,2 broccoli leeks 2,2 other 20,0 28,5 other AMI 2016/OL-113 AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI Analysis based on GfK-household panel

45 Organic carrots sales volumes by countries business years July June; in t Spain Denmark Italy Israel Netherlands Germany 2010/ / / / /15 Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 44 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

46 Organic onions: sales volumes by countries business years July June; in t 16,7 16,5 16,3 14,2 14,5 14,5 1,0 1,2 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,8 1,8 2,0 2,0 2,7 0,5 3,0 3,3 3,5 0,3 3,2 3,8 other Egypt Argentina 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 9,0 8,5 Netherlands Germany 2009/ / / / / /15 Source: AMI estimation according to importer s survey and forgein trade statistics 45 Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

47 Fruit market volumes 2015 in Germany, in percent Organic fruit Fruit total bananas 47,2 21,2 apples 14,4 apples 18,6 bananas 10,8 lemons oranges 11,0 9,5 oranges easy peelers 7,2 2,7 easys peelers grapes 6,2 2,6 kiwis melons 5,7 2,4 pears strawberries 4,9 2,2 melons pears 3,8 1,5 grapes nectarines 3,6 1,2 avocados kiwis 1,9 5,5 other Sonstige 15,9 AMI 2016/OL-112 AMI-informiert.de Source: AMI Analysis based on Gfk household panel

Organic berries in the EU Area of organic berries in the EU, in ha Poland Lithuania Germany Estonia Bulgaria Hungary Portugal Romania Austria Other countries 2015 2014 1.865 2.034 1.211 1.

48 Organic berries in the EU Area of organic berries in the EU, in ha Poland Lithuania Germany Estonia Bulgaria Hungary Portugal Romania Austria Other countries EU-28 in ha ,1 30,5 25,7 25, AMI 2016/OL-247 AMI-informiert.de Source: Eurostat

49 Chances and challenges Find reliable partners In Estonia to organise transport and marketing together In the Germany and other countries to build long term relationships Decide between Delivering raw or semi-finished products into an anonymous market, demand is rising installing Nordic speciallities make them known in other countries add value to your products and market them Use your chances and GOOD LUCK! Enterprise Estonia, Tallinn AMI GmbH

50 Diana Schaack Market Analyst Organic Farming Tel. (0228) Fax (0228) AMI Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft mbh Dreizehnmorgenweg Bonn Die Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft erstellt unabhängig und übergreifend aktuelle Fakten und Analysen für das gesamte Agribusiness.

The organic market in Germany - highlights 2017 DIANA SCHAACK AGRICULTURAL MARKET INFORMATION COMPANY (AMI) , BIOFACH, NÜRNBERG

The organic market in Germany - highlights 2017 DIANA SCHAACK AGRICULTURAL MARKET INFORMATION COMPANY (AMI) 14.02.2018, BIOFACH, NÜRNBERG Highlights 2017 Supermarkets very activly widen their sortiments: