Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific

Transcription

1 Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific Heinz Schandl Senior Principal Scientist ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES PROGRAM

2 Why is sustainable use of resources and resource efficiency important for the region? Before 2008, pressure points including climate change, water and food availability, price surges for strategic raw materials, and peaking global oil supply are converging in an unprecedented manner Current global patterns of production and consumption are hitting the real limits of global resources and ecosystems Asia and the Pacific has twin objectives of raising standards of living (alleviate poverty) and environmental integrity When global growth stalled, countries such as China maintained rates of grow above 6% throughout, and have returned to double digit rates of growth Sustainable resource use will be instrumental for the region to ensure socio-economic development in a world in which resources are more constrained and the absorptive capacity of ecosystems is decreasing rapidly Challenge for public policy to achieve a transition to a Green Economy enabled by resource efficiency and systems innovation This will not occur spontaneously but will require well designed policies CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

3 Broadening the compass for decision making 3 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

4 Measuring material flows and resource efficiency The CSIRO and UNEP Asia-Pacific material flow database CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

5 Integrative measures of the society-environment interface Physical material flow accounts (MFA) Physical and monetary system for integrated environmental and economic accounting (SEEA) Satellite accounts to the System of National Accounts (Bartelmus, 2002) CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

6 Specific to Asia Traditional (customary) and modern system (modern State) operate in parallel/contradiction Rural/urban differences and linkages Rural areas provide workers/consumers and their subsistence Urban incomes as driver of rural transition Food security vs. export incomes Dual objectives of environment and development (material standard of living, poverty, exclusion) Very specific socio-cultural characteristics Speed and scale of industrial transformation Almost no impact of current economic crisis 6 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

7 Relationship between natural resource use and HDI Highly non-linear relationship Different costs of education, life expectancy and percapita income 1970: Globally uniform high-human development has been restricted by natural resource availability Today: Enough natural resources but unevenly distributed (Steinberger, 2010) Human Development Index (HDI) Material and Energy Use, Emissions 7 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

8 Growth Domestic material consumption (DMC) 80,000 70,000 60,000 Asia-Pacific Rest of World World 70 billion tonnes (2008) Million tonnes 50,000 40,000 30,000 Asia-Pacific overtakes (2005) 20,000 10, Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 8 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

9 Transition to new materials Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) 40,000 35,000 Metal ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Construction minerals 17% % 30,000 Biomass 54% 23% Million tonnes 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 15% % 25% 5,000 51% Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 9 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

10 Increasing dependence on natural resource imports Physical Trade Balance (PTB) measured as Imports minus Exports 1,200 1, Metal ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Construction minerals Biomass Million tonnes Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 10 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

11 Material efficiency DMC per GDP (exchange values at 2000 prices) Asia-Pacific becomes less efficient kg/us$ Global material efficiency declines Asia-Pacific Rest of World World Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 11 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

12 Per-capita Domestic Material Consumption 60 Domestic Material Consumption Tonnes per capita Australia China India Indonesia Japan Thailand Year Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 12 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

13 Per-capita Material Footprint Material Footprint Tonnes per capita Australia China India Indonesia Japan Thailand Year Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012), Wiedmann et al. (forthcoming) 13 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

14 Comparing Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) and Material Footprint (MF) Australia Japan Tonnes per capita DMC MF Tonnes per capita DMC MF Year China Year 20.0 Tonnes per capita DMC MF Year Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012), Wiedmann et al. (forthcoming) 14 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

15 Resource Efficiency DMC per GDP (exchange values at 2000 prices) 3.00 Australia 1.00 Japan kg per US$ MF/GDP DMC/GDP kg per US$ MF/GDP DMC/GDP Year China Year kg per US$ MF/GDP DMC/GDP Year 15 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

16 Future of material use, example of China Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) Million tonnes 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 DMC ( ) DMC ( ) 18.2 tonnes per-capita 19.5 billion tonnes China 25.6 tonnes per-capita 28.7 tonnes per-capita 40 billion tonnes Assuming decadal GDP growth to decline to 3% per annum by % per annum improvement in material intensity Medium population projection of 1.4 billion by 2050 Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 16 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

17 Thailand Resource use profile 17 Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

18 Thailand Resource use profile Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database million tonnes 580 million CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth tonnes

19 Viet Nam Resource use profile Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

20 Viet Nam Resource use profile 20 Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database 70 million tonnes CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth 800 million tonnes

21 Drivers of growing material use DMC (million tones) log P Population log A Consumption log MI Material intensity ,114 50% 60% -10% ,445 41% 56% 3% ,397 31% 35% 34% ,248 18% 48% 34% Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 21 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

22 Incremental and transformational policies Policies aimed at transforming current systems Production Green investment Cleaner production Eco-efficiency Extended producer responsibility Activity domains Construction/Housing Transport/Mobility Agriculture/Eating Manufacturing/Consumer goods Utilities/Water and electricity Green infrastructure and design Private Consumption Eco-labelling Service instead of purchasing Buy responsibly Government Consumption Green procurement Policies aimed at improving current behaviours within existing systems 22 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth

23 Thank you Ecosystem Sciences Division Social and Economic Sciences Program Heinz Schandl Senior Principal Scientist t e heinz.schandl@csiro.au w ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME