Sorghum Forum. 3 November Nico Hawkins General Manager
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1 Sorghum Forum 3 November 2017 Nico Hawkins General Manager
2 Sorghum: Supply & demand (National vs. International Marketing season) SAGIS NAMC (S&DEC) International (IGC) Marketing year: Mar - Feb Sep - Aug Actual 2016/17 Projection: 2017/18 Estimate: 2016/17 Projection: 2017/18 '000t '000t Mil ton Mil ton Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks 35.2 (b) 54.1 (b) (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users (1 853 ton) (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 25 Oct '17, NAMC: S&DEC - 31 Oct '17
3 Sweet & Bitter Sorghum: Supply & demand Marketing year: Mar - Feb SAGIS Actual 2017/18 NAMC (S&DEC) Projection: 2017/18 '000t '000t Sweet Bitter Total Sweet Bitter Total Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 25 Oct '17, NAMC: S&DEC - 31 Oct '17
4 Sorghum Crop estimates vs. Producer deliveries 2017/18** 2016/ /16 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries Difference * CEC Final Estimate ** SAGIS Progressive Mar - Sep '17
5 Sorghum Crop estimates vs. Producer deliveries Summer crops intentions to plant
6 Sorghum: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Ton SORGHUM: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIES CEC Prod deliveries HA Yield S&DEC Yield /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Sep 17/18 Proj. 0.00
7 Sorghum: Imports & Exports per marketing season 2017/18 Progressive summarised info Sorghum 2017/18 * 2016/ /16 Ton Imports Exports *Progr. 2017/18: Mar - Sep '17 Source: SAGIS
8 Sorghum: Imports & Exports per marketing season Ton SORGHUM: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Sep 17/18 Proj.
9 Sorghum: Imports for RSA (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 17) Month Ukraine United States Month Total Progressive Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ TOTAL 2017/ Source: SAGIS Sorghum: RSA Imports 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Sep '17 Ukraine % United States % Progr. Total: t
10 Sorghum: Exports from RSA (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 17) Month Botswana Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Month Total Progressive Total Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep TOTAL 2017/ Source: SAGIS Zambia % Sorghum: RSA Exports 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Sep '17 Tanzania % Botswana % Swaziland % Progr. Total: t
11 Sorghum: Consumption Sorghum 2017/18 * 2016/17 ** Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Indoor malting Floor malting Meal, rice & grits Pet Food Poultry feed Lifestock feed * 2017/18: 1 Mar '17-30 Sep '17 Source: SAGIS ** 2016/17: 1 Mar '16-30 Sep '16
12 Sorghum: Consumption Ton SORGHUM: PROCESSED Malting Meal, rice & grits Animal feed S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Sep 17/18 Proj.
13 Sorghum: Opening & Ending Stocks Ton SORGHUM: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Sep 17/18 Proj.
14 Sorghum: 2017/18 Marketing Year (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 17) Ton SORGHUM: 2017/18 MARKETING YEAR (Progressive: 1 Mar - 30 Sep 2017) Projected S&DEC Projected S&DEC Projected S&DEC Projected S&DEC CEC Prod deliveries Processed Imports Exports
15 Price movements
16 Sorghum: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices Sorghum Sorghum Sorghum 2017/10/24 USA Argentine Australian Golf Up River Brisbane 2017/ / /10 $/t $/t $/t FOB value Freight Insurance (0.3% of FOB) Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) $/t Converted to R/t Exchange R/$ (2017/10/24) R/t R/t R/t Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) Financing Cost, insurance, freight & financing Discharging (Durban) Import tariff FOR at Durban Railage: Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein (2016/10/25) SAFEX price on 2017/10/
17 Sorghum: Price Movements SAFEX Local prices SAFEX: Latest prices vs. previous prices Sorghum Contract 2017/10/24 % Month 2017/09/22 % Year 2016/10/24 Price on Month Price on Year Price R R R December ' March ' Source: SAFEX
18 Sorghum: Price Movements CBOT International prices Sorghum FOB: Latest prices vs. previous 2017/10/26 % Month 2016/09/27 % Year 2016/10/26 Price on Month Price on Year Price $ $ $ US Gulf Argentina, Up River
19 Sorghum: Imports SARS FOB Prices (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) SORGHUM March - February 2017/18 Mar - Aug 2016/ /16 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
20 Sorghum: Imports per country SARS FOB Prices (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Imports Country Tariff Line Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Botswana India Lesotho Malawi Namibia Ukraine United States Total Source: SARS
21 Sorghum: Exports SARS FOB Prices (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) SORGHUM March - February 2017/18 Mar - Aug 2016/ /16 Exports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
22 Sorghum: Exports per country SARS FOB Prices (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Exports Country Tariff Line Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Botswana Congo, Dem Rep Lesotho Mozambique Namibia Papua New Guinea Swaziland Tanzania Unknown Zambia Zimbabwe Total Source: SARS
23 General
24 Sorghum: Co-workers Storers % -2017/18- Traders % Harbour silo owners % Processors % Total firms: 114
25 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase Chairperson Sorghum Industry is represented by: Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson Mr Happy Mohane Director Mr Willem Groothof (Alternate)
26 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil all commitments: Sorghum Trust Sorghum Forum Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff
27 Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS website under SAGIS information, Presentations Thank you
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