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1 RES-E POTENTIALS AND POLICIES IN THE LIGHT OF GROWING ENERGY DEMAND Reinhard HAAS, Gustav RESCH Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology Salzburg, September, 16th 28 1

2 SURVEY: 1. Introduction: Textmasterformate Energy durch services Klicken 2. What Zweite can Ebene we learn from the past? Historical scenarios vs reality 3. Can Vierte renewables Ebene solve the problem? 4. Future perspectives for RES in the EU 5. Conclusions 2

3 1. INTRODUCTION Why are we here today? Energy is the fundament of our standard of life today Every second of our life even in deep sleep we consume energy Dramatic increase in energy consumption in recent years! Dramatic increase in energy consumption in Dritte the next Ebene decades expected! There is no interest to consume energy. There is a demand for energy services: clean shirts, warm and bright rooms, cold beer, hot coffee. 3

4 Service = Energy x Technology! But currently the balance is biased tremendously: To much energy, far to less technical efficiency! 4

5 2. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE PAST? HISTORICAL FUTURE SCENARIOS VS REALITY Regarding Dritte Ebene development of energy consumption: Looking Vierte Ebene at the past: Have the scenarios reference/ Fünfte Ebene BAU vs alternative been over/under-fullfilled? Is there a reason to be optimistic? 5

6 14 12 Zweite 1 Ebene Dritte 8 Ebene Vierte 6 Ebene Fünfte 4 Ebene mtoe 16 2 PE in WEO of the IEA: reality is worse than BAU Historical Historical WEO 1997 BAU WEO 1997 ALT World-wide primary energy consumption

7 Textmasterformate 18 durch Klicken PrimaryEnergyEU Dritte 1 Ebene mtoe Fünfte 4 Ebene 2 PE in EU-scenarios: reality is worse than BAU Historical EU-1997 Trends CW EU-1997 Alternativ (BF) PRIMES 25 (BAU) 7

8 Electricity in EU-scenarios: realityismuch worsethanbau TWh 4 1 Historical Electricity EU-15 Historical EU 1997 C.W. EU 1997 ALT 5 Electricity consumption in EU-15 R. Haas, EEG 197 TU Wien

9 Transport energy in EU-scenarios: realityisnotmuchworsethanbau 4 Textmasterformate Transport EU-15 durch Klicken Dritte 2 Ebene Vierte 15 Ebene 1 mtoe Historical EU-1997 Trends CW EU-1997 Alternativ (BF) PRIMES 25 (BAU) 9

10 3. CAN RENEWABLES SOLVE THE PROBLEM? Renewables are growing a success story! Really? 1

11 PJ RENEWABLES IN THE EU PRIMARY ENERGY FROM RES 6 Textmasterformate durch Klicken 5 Zweite 4.9% Ebene % 6.5% White book: 12% by 7.% 21! 6.% 5.% 4.% % 3.% 2.% 1.% EU 15 EU 15 EU Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Percent RES.% 11

12 2 Zweite 15 Ebene 1 5 PJ J RES has been growing for 25 All RES EU-27 every end use in EU-27 Heat Electricity Transport Numbers for 26: Estimated or preliminary 12

13 Biomass 2264 PJ (26): Renewable electricity Photovoltaics % Wind on-shore Geothermal Dritte Ebene 17% electricity 1% Biowaste Vierte Ebene 3% Solid biomass 1% Biogas 4% 476 TWh = 1716 PJ Large-scale hydro 56% Renewable heat (25): Wind off-shore % Small-scale hydro 9% Wood Non- Grid 84% Biofuels (26): Biodiesel 86% grid 11% 5.1 Mtoe = 27 PJ Biogas 1% Solar Thermal 1% Geothermal & ambient heat 3% Bioethanol 14% 13

14 25 RES for heating EU-27 2 Zweite 15 Ebene 1 5 PJ J RES for heating EU Wood Non-Grid Biogas Geothermal&ambient heat Biomass grid Solar Thermal

15 25 2 Heating in EU-27: Total and heat from RES 15 PJ 1 5 Total heating energy and share of RES EU-27 Total heat Percent RES From 9% to 1% All RES Total % RES All RES 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 15

16 Titelmasterformat RES electricity durch Klicken 6 generation EU Zweite Ebene 2 1 TWh/yr Large-scale hydro Small-scale hydro New' RES-E excl. hydro 16

17 Titelmasterformat New RES electricity durch Klicken 14 Textmasterformate durch Klicken 12 TWh/yr Dritte Ebene 4 Vierte Ebene generation EU-27 (excl. Hydro) Biogas Solid biomass Biowaste Geothermal Photovoltaics Wind on-shore Wind off-shore 17

18 TWh Titelmasterformat Electricity in EU-27: durch total Klicken 35 Total Target EU and share of RES Actual Percent RES-E Electricity from RES-E 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 22% by 21! % 18

19 Titelmasterformat RES biofuel production durch Klicken Textmasterformate 5 durch Klicken ktoe Total biofuels (EU-27) 1994 EU :.2% : 1.4%

20 4 Textmasterformate Total durch fuels (road Klicken transport) 35 3 Zweite 25 Ebene Dritte 2Ebene Vierte 15Ebene Fünfte 1 Ebene ktoe Total fuels and biofuels Total fuels& biofuels (EU-27) EU-27 5 Total biofuels (transport)

21 4. WHAT ARE THE FUTURE PERSPECTIVES IN THE EU? Dritte Potentials Ebene of RES and the maximum Vierte shares Ebeneof RES in an efficiency scenario vs BAU 21

22 RES in terms of final energy [Mtoe] Potential of (all) RES in AT BE BG CY CZ DK EU27 up to 23 EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LA LT LU MT Additional long term (23) potential Achieved potential POTENTIAL: FACTOR 4! NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK 22

23 RES in terms of final energy [% of demand] 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% WITHOUT EFFICIENCY 29% 4% 3% 2% 1% EU27: Potential share of RES depending on efficiency RES share 25 RES long term (23) potential - share on 23 demand (baseline case) RES long term (23) potential - share on 23 demand (energy efficiency case) EU27 in 23: FULL RES POTENTIAL EXHAUSTED: WITH EFFICIENCY 38% % AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LA LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES 23 SE UK EU27

24 Shares of RES in different EU-27-scenarios of electricity consumption Textmasterformate 45 durch Klicken 4 35 Zweite 3 Ebene 25 2 Vierte 15 Ebene 1 TWh Historical Demand Historical RES BAU-Demand BAU-EFF RES-BAU RES-MAX 24

25 Titelmasterformat 5. CONCLUSIONS durch (1) Klicken HEADING TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY: * The sustainable use of renewable energy resources is limited! * Crucial role of demand-side efficiency improvements and technological progress in converting RE into services (e.g. TRANSPORT!) * Urgent need for implementation of portfolio of integrated policy strategies! 25

26 Titelmasterformat 5. CONCLUSIONS durch (2) Klicken Increase Textmasterformate (demand-side) durch energy Klicken efficiency) = technological progress = local Zweite economic Ebene value creation by: Introduce Dritte Ebene severe standards for all new electric Vierte Ebene appliances and gadgets (Best: on EU-level, on world-wide level! Forbid sale of bad technologies (Lighting, grid connection devices ) Pricing externalities, energy taxes TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY: 26

27 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Homepage: www. eeg. tuwien. ac. at tuwien. ac. at 27