Climate Stabilization & Energy Security in the 21st Century

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1 Bridging the Gap, Portoroz, Slovenia, May 2008 Climate Stabilization & Energy Security in the 21st Century Professor H. J. Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre 1

2 Draft Paper: Are We Approaching a Global Tipping Point? 2

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7 Melting of Ice over Greenland 1992 Melt Extent Maximum melt extent (km 2 ) 7x10 5 6x10 5 5x10 5 4x10 5 3x10 5 Trend: 0.7% / year 2002 Melt Extent 2x Greenland ice sheet melt area increased on average by 16% from 1979 to The smallest melt extent was observed after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1992 Data from Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, University of Colorado 7

8 Rignot et al. 2008, Nature Geoscience 8

9 Projected Amazon Die-Back Drought of

10 Malhi et al (submitted to PNAS) 10

11 The Biggest Dust Source on Earth: Bodélé Depression TOMS AI Annual Average for North Africa Washington et al (submitted to PNAS) 11

12 Ocean Methane Hydrates Archer et al (submitted to PNAS) 12

13 Burning Embers Year 2100 range (IPCC 2007) Potential policy-relevant tipping elements that could be triggered by global warming this century, with shading indicating their uncertain thresholds. For each threshold, the transition from white to yellow indicates a lower bound on its proximity, and the transition from yellow to red, an upper bound. The degree of uncertainty is represented by the spread of the colour transition. T. M. Lenton & H.J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports Climate Change, 2007) 13

14 Modeling the impacts of oceanic acidification Reduced export Rising of atmospheric organic matter pco 2 (POC) levels will cause a drop in oceanic ph values SRES A1FI Increased anoxic conditions in oceans subsurface Hofmann & Schellnhuber, in prep. 14

15 Teleconnections and Feedbacks Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? Atlantic Deep Water Formation Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Instability of Methane Clathrates Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Tibetan Albedo Change? Indian Monsoon Transformation ENSO Triggering Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Tipping it after all? 15

16 The Mitigation Gap 16

17 Mitigation Costs with Induced Technological Change Source: Edenhofer, Lessmann et al

18 Entwicklung des weltweiten PKW-Bestands Quelle: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, S. 35) 18

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20 Bringing Forward the 3 rd Industrial Revolution

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23 Printing of Plastic Electronics inks ---- with electronic functionality! Plastic Substrate The Dream Solar Cells Functional Ink 23 From a presentation by Alan Heeger (Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2000)

24 Electromobility the Efficient Alternative to Biofuels 24

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26 Studies on potentials of renewable energies in EU-MENA Initiated by TREC, performed by DLR, financed by German gov t, Biomass (1) (Typical Yield in GWh el /km²/y) Geothermal Energy (1) Wind Energy (50) 890 Economic Potential TWh el /y. 750 Hydropower (50) Solar - CSP, PV (250) > demand TWh/y EU+MENA TWh/y world-wide 2050 Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC /2 26

27 Hot Spots of Biocapital 27

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29 Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production Natural (GtC/yr) Actual % 90% Haberl et al. (2006) Biofuel Projections for 2100: 400 EJ/yr = 7-9 GtC/yr >50% of current total HANPP Human alteration Human harvest Human fires Total HANPP Backflows % 11% 2% 23% 2% = 270 EJ/yr (caloric) (incl EJ/yr biofuels) 29

30 Energy yield approximately 11% of current global primary energy demand Land Use Change: Carbon losses must be compensated by biomass production within 5 years Food security: Current cropland for food production expands by 120 Mha Biodiversity: Areas with intermediate to high biodiversity value are conserved Wilderness: All valuable intact ecosystems are conserved Additional constraints: Current protected areas and wetlands are not used for biomass production Severly degraded areas are considered unsuitable for bioenergy plantations 30

31 Energy yield approximately 13% of current global primary energy demand Land Use Change: Carbon losses must be compensated by biomass production within 5 years Food security: Current cropland for food production expands by 120 Mha Biodiversity: Areas with intermediate to high biodiversity value are conserved Wilderness: Only the most valuable intact ecosystems are conserved Additional constraints: Current protected areas and wetlands are not used for biomass production Severly degraded areas are considered unsuitable for bioenergy plantations 31

32 Energy yield approximately 23% of current global primary energy demand Land Use Change: Carbon losses must be compensated by biomass production within 5 years Food security: Current cropland for food production does not expand Biodiversity: Areas with intermediate to high biodiversity value are conserved Wilderness: Only the most valuable intact ecosystems are conserved Additional constraints: Current protected areas and wetlands are not used for biomass production Severly degraded areas are considered unsuitable for bioenergy plantations 32

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34 To Copenhagen From Bali Global Deal on Climate Protection Post-2012? 34