Renewable Energy in The Netherlands March 2015

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy in The Netherlands March 215

2 Dr. Martien Visser Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen Partner of the Energy Academy Europe This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided. Mar 15 Page 2

3 March 215 In a Nutshell Electricity production by Solar Energy was 21% higher than in March 214 Electricity production by wind energy was 4% higher than in March 214 A capacity of 62 MW of wind and 3 MW of solar PV was added in March 215 Power imports into the Netherlands were 65% lower than in previous year LNG imports increased by 4% compared to March 214 (sheet 56) Coal fired power generation increased by 2% compared to last year In March 215, CO2 emissions were 8% higher compared to last year The fraction renewable energy was 4.% compared to 4.1% in March 214 A solar eclipse occurred on March 2 (sheet 54) A partial black-out occurred on March 27 (sheet 55) Mar 15 Page 3

4 Content March 215 data Monthly profiles Monthly data Hourly data Miscellaneous Mar 15 Page 4

5 SELECTED ENERGY DATA FROM MARCH 215 Mar 15 Page 5

6 Final Energy Demand March 215 TWh March Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, etc.., own analyses *estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power Energy is used for many different purposes. In March, the most important applications were heating/gas (29.7 TWh) and transport (27.5 TWh). Final energy demand, including sources that do not contribute to national CO2 targets, was about 8 TWh. Renewables are given by comparison. Mar 15 Page 6

7 Final Energy Demand March 215 TWh March 215 versus March Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses *estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power In March 215, gas consumption was higher than last year, due to lower winter temperatures. Energy used for bunkering and feedstock is estimated to be lower than previous year. Mar 15 Page 7

8 CO2 Emissions March 215 Mton CO2 March Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, RIVM, CE-Delft, own analyses *do not contribute to the national CO2 target ** excl. gas & coal to power The national CO2 emission in March 215, excluding power imports, feedstock and international shipping & aviation, has been estimated at 14,8 Mton. This was 8% higher than in March 214, primarily caused by more gas consumption, more coal utilization, and lower power imports. Mar 15 Page 8

9 Power Generation Capacity March 215 MW March Gas Coal Wind Biomass* Solar Nuclear Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, Windstats, own analyses Wind power increased by 62 MW last month, while the estimated increase in solar energy was 3 MW. The first 8 MW part of a new coal fired power station at Eemshaven has come on stream. Mar 15 Page 9

10 Power Supplies March 215 TWh 6. March NatGas Coal Wind solar-pv Biomass Nuclear Net imports Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, own analyses In March 215, power consumption in 214 was 9.9 TWh, 4% higher than in March 214. Imports decreased by 23%, exports increased by 5%. The usage of coal for power generation increased by 2% y-o-y. In March, the average contribution from renewables to the power supplies was 1.7%. Mar 15 Page 1

11 SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES (using daily data) Mar 15 Page 11

12 Gas and Power Demand March 215 GWh March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Power Gas* Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, etc.. own analyses *excluding gas-to-power Daily power demand shows a week-weekend pattern. Daily gas demand (excluding gas demand for power) is mainly used for the heating market and affected by ambient temperature. Mar 15 Page 12

13 Conventional Power Production March 215 GWh March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Coal Gas Nuclear Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Daily conventional power generation peaked on March 2 rd. Depending on power demand, power imports and renewables production, coal usage for power generation showed a weak week/weekend pattern. Mar 15 Page 13

14 Wind and Solar Power Production March 215 GWh March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Wind Solar-PV Sources: TenneT, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Wind generation peaked on March 31 at more than 55 GWh. Solar PV was low in March, but increased by 2% compared to the March GWh is sufficient to provide power for a year to 3 households Mar 15 Page 14

15 Contribution of Renewable Energy March % March 215 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Ren% Power Ren% Prim. Sources: CBS, GTS, TenneT, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analyses Renewable energy peaked to 6% on March 31 st, while the fraction of renewable power peaked to 22% that day. These high values have been caused by high wind speeds in the last couple of days in March 215, resulting in high wind power. Mar 15 Page 15

16 SELECTED MONTHLY ENERGY DATA Mar 15 Page 16

17 Gas Demand 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In March 215 gas demand (excluding gas demand for power production) was substantially higher than in March 214, mainly due to lower temperatures in 215 Mar 15 Page 17

18 Gas Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, own analyses In March 215, Dutch gas production was 27% lower than in March TWh gas is sufficient to supply heat all houses in Amsterdam for two years Mar 15 Page 18

19 Power Demand 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: TenneT, CBS, own analyses For the third consecutive month, power demand was higher than previous years, indicating a continued growth of the Dutch economy Mar 15 Page 19

20 Wind Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses Wind power production is very volatile y-o-y. In February 215, wind power generation was much lower than in previous year. In March 215, the production of wind power was 4% higher than last year. Mar 15 Page 2

21 Solar PV Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: PolderPV.nl, CertiQ, Klimaatmonitor, KNMI, own analyses In March 215, Solar PV was 21% higher than in previous year, mainly due to increased Solar PV capacity. Mar 15 Page 21

22 Coal-to-Power 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses For the third consecutive month, coal utilization for power generation has increased by about 2%. Mar 15 Page 22

23 Gas to Power 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In March, power production by gas-fired power stations and cogeneration has increased significantly compared to previous year. Main reason are the decreased net imports to the Netherlands. Mar 15 Page 23

24 Renewable Energy All Sources 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In March 215, total renewable energy production in The Netherlands increased by about 3% compared to March 214. Lower contributions from biomass were compensated by higher contributions from wind and sun. Mar 15 Page 24

25 Renewable Energy Percentage 215 (and 214) 6% 215 (214) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In March 215, the estimated national percentage of renewable energy as fraction of total energy demand (EU definition) has been estimated at 4.%. Mar 15 Page 25

26 CO2 Emissions 215 (and 214) Mton (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, CE-Delft, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses For the third consecutive month, Dutch CO2 emissions have increased compared to previous year. The increase in March was 8%. The main causes are a higher energy usage due to lower temperatures, economic growth and less power imports. Mar 15 Page 26

27 SELECTED HOURLY ENERGY DATA Mar 15 Page 27

28 Gas Supply March 215 MWh Natural Gas origins March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Sources: GTS, own analyses Storages Gas import LNG Terminals Production In March 215, hourly gas production peaked at 15. MW (15 GW). LNG production in March was limited to 1,2 TWh, although five times higher than in March 214. Mar 15 Page 28

29 Gas Demand Including Gas-to-Power March 215 MWh Sources: GTS, own analyses Gas Demand March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Industry LDC points On March 3 rd, gas demand in The Netherlands peaked to 8. MW (8 GW). The peak in gas demand has been caused by a combination of relatively low temperatures and high demand of gas for power generation. Mar 15 Page 29

30 Gas Imports & Exports March 215 MWh March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Gas export Gas import Sources: GTS, own analyses In March 215, gas exports were 46 TWh, 9% lower than previous year. On the other hand, gas imports were 2% higher than in March 214. Mar 15 Page 3

31 Power Imports & Exports March 215 MWh March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Power import Power export Sources: TenneT, own analyses In March 215, power imports 2.1Wh, 23% less than in March 214. Power exports increased to 1.5 TWh, 51% higher than previous year. Mar 15 Page 31

32 Wind Power March 215 MWh Wind Power March 215 Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, etc., own analyses 1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar March 215 was characterized by high wind availability in the beginning and the end of the month, and low wind availability in between. Mar 15 Page 32

33 Solar PV Power March 215 MWh Solar Power March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Sources: PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses In March Solar-PV peaked to 5 MW, up from 36 MW in February 215. In March 215, solar-pv was 2% higher than previous year, due to higher solar-pv installed capacity. On March, there was a solar eclipse. Mar 15 Page 33

34 The following set of slides presents for each month in 215 the hourly contributions of various energy sources to total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar 15 Page 34

35 Power Generation January 215 MW January Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are added In the week of 2-24 January, power generation peaked, due to the net exports that occurred. The majority of the additional power generation has been generated by gasfired installations. Mar 15 Page 35

36 Power Generation February 215 MW February Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are added Like in January, low wind availability coincided with net exports of power. Mar 15 Page 36

37 Power Generation March 215 MW March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are added Relatively low imports of power occurred in March. On some Saturdays, some net exports were recorded. Mar 15 Page 37

38 The following set of slides presents for each week in 215 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-pv to the total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar 15 Page 38

39 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 1-Jan 11-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ,, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analyses Mar 15 Page 39

40 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analyses Mar 15 Page 4

41 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 2-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar 15 Page 41

42 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar 15 Page 42

43 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, KNMI, PolderPV.nl, etc., own analyses Mar 15 Page 43

44 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 1-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, KNMI, PolderPV.nl, etc., own analyses Mar 15 Page 44

45 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 2-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar 15 Page 45

46 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 1-Mar Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Mar 15 Page 46

47 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar 15 Page 47

48 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Mar 1-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar 15 Page 48

49 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 2-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar 15 Page 49

50 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar 15 Page 5

51 MISCELLANEOUS Mar 15 Page 51

52 Effective Temperature March 215 o C March Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar Sources: KNMI, own analyses The effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) in March 215. Mar 15 Page 52

53 Fuel Specific CO2 Emissions g/kwh Sources: CE-Delft, own analyses Fuels Power Generation Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation. Mar 15 Page 53

54 Solar-PV production affected by the solar eclipse on March 2 th MWh Solar Power March Mar 2-Mar 21-Mar Sources: PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Effects of the solar eclipse on March 2 th have been limited due to cloudiness. In the afternoon of March 2 th, after the solar eclipse, the clouds have disappeared Mar 15 Page 54

55 Power consumption affected by the blackout on March 27 th MWh Power Demand March Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar Sources: TenneT, own analyses On Friday March 27 th, a black-out occurred in large parts of the Netherlands. Consequently, power consumption decreased during a number of hours. The power consumption of a week earlier has been depicted for comparison. Mar 15 Page 55

56 LNG imports 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses Send out of Gate terminal into the gas grid has increased significantly. Mar 15 Page 56

57 Epilogue This presentation is based on numerous sources which present data on energy demand and supply in The Netherlands. These data, however, do not cover the entire energy system. Some approximations and scaling factors were thus needed. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of Applied Science in Groningen and various energy experts in The Netherlands which gave suggestions for improvements of the methods used. Currently, the aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS). It is believed by the author that the detailed results in this presentation give a fair presentation of the complex reality of the Dutch energy system. Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided with the objective to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable. Mar 15 Page 57