UK Energy Security. Chris Train Director, Market Operation. 29 November 2012

Transcription

1 UK Energy Security Chris Train Director, Market Operation 29 November 2012

2 25% 20% De-rated margin (%) 15% 10% 5% 0% 2012/ / / / /17 Base case Full exports to Continent Low CCGT High CCGT Full imports from Continent 2

3 LCPD opted out coal plant (Jan. 2012) 9 GW Tilbury Cockenzie 1 & 2 Cockenzie 3 & 4 Kingsnorth 3 Didcot A Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Ferrybridge Ironbridge Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 The majority of LCPD opted-out plant expected to close or convert by 2014 given current running patterns. Cockenzie & Kingsnorth closures by end March 2013 announced Tilbury & Ironbridge conversion to biomass Still 20 GW of LCPD opted in coal plant after

4 Energy security Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar /10/12 05/11/12 12/11/12 19/11/12 26/11/12 03/12/12 10/12/12 17/12/12 24/12/12 31/12/12 07/01/13 14/01/13 21/01/13 28/01/13 04/02/13 11/02/13 18/02/13 25/02/13 04/03/13 11/03/13 18/03/13 25/03/13 GW /MWh / $/tonne FUTURES Prices Gas Electricity Baseload Power /MWh NBP Gas Price p/therm ARA Coal Price $/tonne Brent Oil Price 60 Gas vs Coal for Power Generation Demands 01-Oct 01-Dec 01-Feb Ireland Non-power daily metered Total Power Non daily metered Interconnector Storage injection Cold demand Warm demand Supplies & LNG Surpluses 1 in 20 Demand Operating Reserve Assumed generation with 3GW imports Assumed generation with 3GW exports Europe 0 mcm/d Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Weather Adjusted Monthly Peak Demand (GW) Demands Date Weather Corrected Seasonally Adjusted Smoothed 53 Seasonally Adjusted Smoothed Demand (GW)

5 Slow Progression Gone Green Accelerated Growth Overview Government climate targets missed / abandoned Continued economic hardship, low GDP growth Limited energy efficiency / Green Deal impact Domestic gas demand broadly flat, higher in power generation Overview Government climate targets met, balanced approach Modest GDP growth in medium term at historic averages Energy efficiency is driven / Green Deal is effective Gradual decline in gas demand Overview Government climate targets met early Sustained economic growth in medium to long term Significant energy efficiency Significant reduction in gas demand Targets performance Targets performance Targets performance renewable 2020 carbon 2030 carbon 2050 carbon renewable 2020 carbon 2030 carbon 2050 carbon renewable 2020 carbon 2030 carbon 2050 carbon 5

6 Electricity demand Slow Progression Annual demand broadly flat Peak demand flat / falling Annual electricity demand (TWh) Gone Green Economic growth, heat & transport electrification Peak demand grows steadily Accelerated Growth 275 Reflects greater economic growth and electrification of heat & transport

7 Electricity generation Slow Progression Extension of existing plant; new gas generation Slower low CO 2 deployment Gone Green Balanced approach Contributions from different technologies Accelerated Growth Faster low CO 2 deployment Strong micro generation deployment Gone Green: Power generation (TWh) & carbon intensity (gc02/kwh) Nuclear CCS Coal CCS Gas Wind Marine / Solar PV Hydro / Pumped Storage Biomass Imports Gas / CHP Coal Oil / Other Carbon Intensity g CO2/kWh

8 Gas demand Slow Progression Higher domestic & power generation demand Peak demand broadly flat 1,200 1,000 Annual gas demand (TWh) Gone Green Steady decline in domestic & power generation demand Peak demand ~25% lower Accelerated Growth 200 Strong decline in domestic & power generation demand Peak demand ~40% lower

9 Gas supply Slow Progression Higher UKCS & Norwegian supply; higher global LNG New seasonal storage Gone Green Balanced approach Flexible storage driven by market requirements Accelerated Growth Lower UKCS & Norwegian supply; tight global LNG Storage under construction Gone Green: Gas supply (bcm/year) & Import dependency (%) % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% UKCS Norw ay Continent LNG Onshore Import Dependency Demand 9

10 Gas / Electricity Interaction in 2020 Actual daily power profiles for days of highest electricity demand Gas and coal competing for baseload Most CCGTs needed for peak ½hr Within day gas flow mcm/d Flex from NTS linepack Coal at baseload, gas marginal Most CCGTs needed for peak ½hr Within day gas flow 26-97mcm/d Flex from NTS linepack Within day variation in wind from 2.6 to 1.3GW (78%-38%) 10

11 EMR: Fit/CFD 11

12 EMR: Capacity Mechanism 12