Tools for Visualizing Sea Level Rise Impacts and Resiliency Planning

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1 Tools for Visualizing Sea Level Rise Impacts and Resiliency Planning Richard Lathrop Raritan River Workshop December 6, 2013

2 Coastal Community Resiliency Progression Understand the Issues Assess Risk and Vulnerability Plan for the Future Implement and Adapt

3 Photo credit: N. Psuty

4 Rising sea level is a physical reality that is impacting the New Jersey and the entire Mid-Atlantic coastline. Predicted future rates are expected to increase to 12 mm/yr (or 0.5 in/yr). This means that by 2050 sea level rise is expected to rise by approximately 1 foot and by 2100 sea level rise is projected to rise about 3 feet along the Jersey shore. The mean sea level trend over the past century is 3.99 millimeters/year (0.15 in/yr) which is equivalent to a change of 1.31 feet in 100 years. Graphic Credit: NOAA

5 NOAA 2050 Scenarios for NJ Lowest: 0.3 ft Intermediate-Low: 0.7 ft Intermediate-High: 1.3 ft Highest: 2.0 ft Projection of sea level rise from 1990 to 2100, based on temperature projections for different Green House Gas emissions scenarios SOURCE: NRC 2010 Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).

6 Hurricane Sandy hits the JerseyCoast Images from Nj.com

7 Sandy Surge Extends up the Raritan

8 Workshop Survey Results: The audience of coastal decision makers highlighted their perceived need for place-based information and decision support tools to inform land use planning, floodplain management and emergency management in the face of accelerating sea level rise.

9 Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) Mapping elevation in terrestrial zone and bathymetry in nearshore zone Flown in helicopter or fixed wing aircraft. > 15 cm vertical accuracy NJ Coastal LiDAR data acquired in 2008 and 2010 Images from

10 LiDAR - southern Cape May (2m cell) Cape May- Delaware BayShore Spring 2008

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12 Designing decision support tools related to SLR: (NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, 2007) Tools should incorporate information ascertained through scientific research and modeling that can be easily applied by governments and landowners when planning future land use and deciding on policy and regulations that affect coastal resources; Tools should forecast expected habitat changes, especially potential loss of habitats important for ecological services; Tools should be easy to translate to decision makers; Tools should enable easy understanding of potential risks to people and development due to future flooding and related hazards.

13 NJFloodMapper Project: examine how web-based geospatial decision-making tools can be developed and implemented to promote coastal resilience in the face of sea level rise and extreme storm events: Overall Goal: to broaden access to vital geospatial information with the goal of empowering a wide and diverse community of concerned parties interested in coastal management and conservation. Specific Objectives: Develop a focused web-based mapping application with an intuitive interface and gentle learning curve. Expand to fuller decision support tool.

14 Applying a Instructional Systems Design Model Analyze Audience Design Product Develop Product Launch Product Evaluate Product & Process Front-end Evaluation (assess users needs & desires for improved decision making) Formative Evaluation (get feedback on design criteria, storyboards, prototypes, beta products, etc., as often as possible & is needed) Summative Evaluation (assess if products work & are useful)

15 Front-End and Formative Evaluation

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21 FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) 2050 SFHA incorporating sea level rise

22 Maintaining Green Infrastructure: Coastal Salt Marshes J.G. Titus and J. Wang EPA 430R USEPA Washington DC

23 Tidal Marsh Retreat Marsh builds up vertically through accretion Marsh migrates horizontally Hypothetical shoreline profile Graphic from

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25 NJ Inland Flooding Exposure USGS Water Science Center Flood Inundation Mapping Program Goal: Mapping for all of NJ s inland watersheds connected to real-time and forecasted river levels at USGS streamgages

26 USGS Water Science Center Flood Inundation Mapping Program

27 NJ Coastal Flooding Exposure Assessment As part of the New Jersey Recovery Fund effort, we are undertaking a geospatial assessment to identify geographic areas of New Jersey that are most vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise for use in coastal resiliency planning. The specific objectives are: To rank and map exposure to coastal hazards using a consensus-based protocol; Implement the above protocol to map vulnerable geographic areas under present but also under future projected sea level rise (2050 and 2100) conditions.

28 NJ Coastal Flood Exposure Assessment: to identify geographic areas of New Jersey that are most vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise for use in coastal resiliency planning. Indicators Hazard Ranking Protocol Protocol Element Available data *Data is readily available NY Employed Data NY Ranking NJ ranking 1. Flood Hazard areas 1 and 0.2% annual SFHA A & V zones from ABFE /FIRM prelim maps* 1 and 0.2% annual SFHA A & V zones from ABFE /FIRM prelim maps 2. Storm Surge SLOSH Cat 1-4* SLOSH Cat 3 SLR modified SLOSH Extreme: V zone High: A Zones Moderate: 0.2% (500 yr or X ) zone; 1% + 3 SLR Extreme: High: Extreme: V Zone (ABFE/Prelim) High: 1% A & V Zones Moderate: - 0.2% (500 yr or X ) zone; Extreme: High: SLOSH Cat 1 3. Shallow coastal flooding NOAA/NWS Shallow Coastal Flooding (SCF) * NOAA/NWS Shallow Coastal Flooding Moderate: SLOSH Cat 3 Extreme: SCF High: SCF + 3 SLR Moderate: Not ranked by NY Moderate: SLOSH Cat 3 Extreme: SCF High: Moderate:

29 Present-day conditions

30 Consensus sea level rise projections for the New Jersey flood exposure assessment Tide Gage Subsidence mm/year Year Low Intermediate Low Intermediate High High Atlantic City -96Yrs * 1.0* 1.5* 2.5* Cape May - 42Yrs * 1.0* 1.5* 2.5* Sandy Hook - 75Yrs * 1.0* 1.5* 2.5* NOAA Average Miller/Kopp** Mean NOAA and M/K CVA values *** Atlantic City -96Yrs * 2.5* 4.5* 7.5* Cape May - 42Yrs * 2.0* 4.5* 7.5* Sandy Hook - 75Yrs * 2.5* 4.5* 7.5* NOAA Average Miller/Kopp** Mean NOAA and M/K CVA values *** * SLR values are in Ft and are provided by the USACE calculator to the nearest 0.5 FT ** Rounded to nearest 0.1 ***Rounded up to nearest 0.5FT

31 NJ Coastal Flood Exposure Assessment: Next Steps Identify and map hazard zones with the most extreme SLR/flooding exposure to assist coastal communities in making critical decisions in planning for shoreline areas. To identify hazard conflict areas where urban land uses are at risk but also constricting the natural dynamics of coastline and wetland migration in the face of rising sea levels A valuation of the potential ecosystem services of alternative green infrastructure to provide a better understanding of economic tradeoffs

32 Plan for the Future

33 Getting to Resilience is a non-regulatory tool to assist local decision-makers in the collaborative identification of planning, mitigation, and adaptation opportunities to reduce vulnerability to coastal storms and sea level rise. The outcome are positive steps towards rewards from programs like FEMA s Community Rating System, FEMA s Hazard Mitigation Planning processes and Sustainable Jersey s voluntary municipal points system..

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35 Coastal Community Resiliency Progression Understand the Issues Assess Risk and Vulnerability Plan for the Future Implement and Adapt

36 Key Websites: NJFlood Mapper: visualizing SLR NJFloodMapper.org Getting To Resilience: A Community Planning Evaluation Tool Prepareyourcommunitynj.org NJ Climate Adaptation Alliance Climatechange.rutgers.edu