ProgressHeat og energiværktøjet "Least Cost Tool" Marie Münster (& Stefan Petrovic & Sara Ben Amer-Allam) Senior forsker Afdelingen for Systemanalyse

Transcription

1 ProgressHeat og energiværktøjet "Least Cost Tool" Marie Münster (& Stefan Petrovic & Sara Ben Amer-Allam) Senior forsker Afdelingen for Systemanalyse

2 Outline ProgRESsHEAT projektet Least Cost Tool Resultater og anbefalinger 2

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4 Time frame / partners Project duration: March 2015 October 2017 Project partners: Scientific partners Communication partners Local partners

5 Core objective Support policy makers and public authorities at local, regional, national and EU level in the development and implementation of integrated strategies and policies to enforce the use of renewable and efficient heating and cooling solutions in their regions.

6 Local cases 3) Biomass CHP Heat savings 6) Waste incineration Solar thermal heat 4) Geothermal energy Reinvesting in grid 5) Excess heat from refinery PV+AC+HP 1) Excess heat utilisation New development area 2) Reinvestment in DH grid Reincreasing connection rate

7 Mål med LCT Finde den billigste løsning for at opnå CO2 besparelser i varmesektoren Hvor bør især besparelser eller konvertering promoveres? I hvilke bygningstyper (alder, anvendelse, beliggenhed)? Sammenholde omkostninger for besparelser med omkostninger til fjernvarme og individuel opvarmning men omkostningerne afhænger af størrelse af forbrug 7

8 Data BBR data Teknologikatalog m. effektiviteter og omkostninger (Energistyrelsen) Brændselspriser (Energinets Analyseforudsætninger , October 2015) Besparelsesomkostninger for forskellige niveauer, afh. af type bygning og alder (Tekniske Universitet Wien eller SBI) 8

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10 Varmeproduktion i dag 10

11 Område opdeling 11

12 Areal per områdetype 12

13 Bygningsopdeling 11 Typer Single Family Houses Single Family Houses detached Multifamily Houses - small Multifamily Houses - large Public offices Private offices Wholesale/Retail Hotels/Restaurants Health Education Other 3 Aldre Very old buildings (constructed before 1950), Old buildings (constructed between 1951 and 1978), Normal buildings (constructed after 1979). 13

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15 Pris per MWh 15

16 Varmeproduktion i

17 Heat reductions The average heating demand in the municipality is reduced around 40% in all scenarios. The reduction of heating demand occurs almost uniformly across different areas around 40% for buildings in DH and Individual areas, 36% for buildings in Next-to-DH areas and 42% for Scattered buildings In all scenarios, the reductions of heating demands are similar for buildings built before 1950 (50%), between 1950 and 1979 (35%) and after 1979 (20%) Perfect market with full info, economic rationality and no building protection restrictions is assumed!! 17

18 Heat reductions - assumptions There is no buffer if annuitized cost of heating is 0.01 DKK/kWh lower, the change happens Protected buildings not accounted for Heating expenses often represent small part of the budgets. Comfort may play a more important role in decision making. Investments in new heat savings/heat supply sometimes have too long pay-back times. Free money is reserved for other purposes, e.g. a modern kitchen, etc. Private comfort is disturbed during renovations; this is a barrier which is not included in the present analysis. Relatively cheap long-term financing of heat savings are assumed, which are usually based on equity. In some cases this financing option won t be available. Rebound effects, which are often seen in reality are not considered in the present analysis. The rebound effect is reflected as a smaller decrease of heating demand than expected due to increase of internal temperature. 18

19 Heat supply District heating share between 32% (HP) up to 40% (Bio) Biomass economically feasible without tax but Not taken into account: Risk of high prices or taxes Existence of chimneys Space for biomass storage Convenience/ comfort Heat pumps are on a par with natural gas boilers 19

20 CO2 emissioner i

21 Recommendations Promote heat savings in buildings - particularly in buildings from before 1950 and in multifamily houses Promote shift from individual fossil heat supply - especially oil boilers Discourage implementation of individual biomass boilers in densely populated areas due to particle emissions Ensure cheap, CO 2 neutral DH from Forsyning Helsingør Advocate shift to fossil free district heating from Norfors - if continued import 21

22 progressheat anbefalinger Local level 1 Strategic planning 2 Awareness raise, skills 3 Regulations 4 Economics incentives European level National level

23 Tak for opmærksomheden! Interesseret i at vide mere? Intro til brug af LCT: (Stefan Petrovic, stpet@dtu.dk) progressheat hjemmeside: Andre spørgsmål eller forslag: maem@dtu.dk 23

24 Input fra BBR 24

25 Areal per områdetype 25

26 LCT User inputs and aggregated results 26

27 Detailed results 27

28 Tekniske scenarier No Scenario. 1 BAU 2030 (Reference scenario) Description All units existing in 2013 are assumed to be decommissioned by 2030 due to their age. The district heating production in Helsingør is assumed to be based exclusively on biomass, Norfors has a renewed capacity of the current type of energy units 2 RES 2030 All units existing in 2013 are assumed to be decommissioned by 2030 due to their age. No changes in the basic setup of district heating production system are implemented. Existing and new individual natural gas and oil boilers are prohibited 3 HP 2030 All units existing in 2013 are assumed to be decommissioned by 2030 due to their age. The district heating production in Helsingør is based exclusively on heat pumps Norfors has a renewed capacity of the same type of energy units as in BAU 2050 (Reference scenario) 5 Combi District heating production in Helsingør is assumed to be based exclusively on biomass Norfors has a renewed capacity of the current type of energy units Helsingør is heated mainly by heat pumps and thermal storage Solar heating is used during summer Biomass boilers produce peak load heat throughout the year Norfors has a renewed capacity of the same type of energy units as in 2013.

29 Politikker No Policy scenario. 1 No policy 2 Prohibition of oil and gas in individual supply 3 Tax on particulate matter (PM) for individual biomass boilers and CHPs 4 Tax reduction for large and individual HPs 5 Higher discount rate for DH 6 Allowed disconnection in DH areas 7 Profit-based DH operation 8 Ind. biomass restricted in DH areas Description Individual heating based on fossil fuels is banned (in the case of Helsingør, fuel oil and natural gas are banned) Individual biomass boilers are charged with a PM tax of 6.66 EUR/GJ Large CHPs are charged with 50% of the suggested tax, i.e EUR/GJ, because they emit less PM than individual boilers. The PSO tax and 50% of the regular electricity tax is removed for large HPs. For individual HP, the PSO tax is removed and a tax reduction is assumed for electricity consumption over the 4000 kwh. Instead of 0.99% discount rate for investments in district heating plants and grid, a discount rate of 2.18% is used. This is the same as in the case of heat savings and heat installations in large buildings (e.g. public offices). Disconnecting buildings from the DH grid in DH areas is allowed (opposed to requiring buildings in DH to be connected to the DH grid). DH companies are allowed to generate a profit (opposed to the current policy requiring DH companies to have a non-profit operation Individual biomass boilers are prohibited. 29