Energinet.dk scenarios towards 2030, 2035 and 2050

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1 Energinet.dk scenarios towards 2030, 2035 and 2050 NSON-DK scenario Webinar Anders Bavnhøj Hansen Chief engineer Research & development Energinet.dk Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

2 DK 1990! Energirelateret CO2 Global contekst IEA WEO and COP 21 DK 2014: 7,8 ton CO2/capita (energi) Global: 2,1 ton CO2/capita Target: Well below 2 degr. IEA 450 PPM 2 degr. scenario Mission Innovation More global R&D INDC s A tough challenge to realise Paris COP21 targets Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

3 Global plans (INDC s) significant grow in wind/solar Kilde: Ecofys, april 2016 INDC s does not lead to needed reduction in CO2 if Well below 2 degr should be realised A need for even more wind, solar, RE-fuels and energy efficiency Analysis of scenarios for the Danish Energy system

4 Uncertainties in international framework conditions (fuel and CO2-prices, focus on green energy etc.) Paris COP21 A need for scenarios to handle uncertainties Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

5 Scenarios to cope with an uncertain future Scenario 3: Green Nations Scenario 4: Green Europe Scenario 1: Moderate Nations 2030 Scenario 2: Moderate Europe Danish scenarios based on ENTSO-E European scenarios Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

6 Energinet scenarios towards 2030 Scenario 3 Green Nations Danmark showcase for transition towards Well below 2 degr. target Low international cooperation but many countries are ambitios IEA 450 PPM price level (low fuel and high CO2 prices) High focus RE Scenario 4 Green Europe EU showcase for Green transition (COP21) Energy Union International cooperation in EU Energy Union with markets for Green gas IEA 450 PPM price level (low fuel and high CO2-prices) National focus Denmark low RE-ambition - only whats internationally imposed Low international cooperation Brexit tendencies in Europe no EU carbon market Few reforms of tax/regulation in DK and EU IEA Current Policies fuel prices - High fuel-prices and low CO2-prices Scenario 1 Moderate Nations Low focus RE Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and 2050 EU Energy Union Moderate ambition RE in EU and DK High international cooperation EU regulation, standards and grid codes IEA New Policies price level Medium Fuel and CO2-prices Scenario 2 Moderate Europe 6

7 RE-electricity ressources DK Socio-economic cost of energy 2030 excl. integration (LCOE) 100 $/MWh Landvind Onshore wind Cost of electricity Offshore wind Bio-CHP Coal-CHP (interval) Power consumption scenarios Onshore wind (high scenario) PV solar Offshore wind (up to 35 m depth) Wave power Offshore wind (more than 35 m depth) Bio CHP Technology data 2014/2015 and 4% discount Solar large scale not illustrated Analysis of scenarios for the Danish Energy system

8 Wind and solar in the scenarios MW Landmøller Hav- og kystmøller Solceller Moderate nationer Moderat Europa Grønne nationer Grønt Europa Offshore wind in Scenario 4 is a case with Green Europa and to be seen as a European investment 30. november Dok 15/

9 Power production TWh Scenarier Wind (offshore/onshore) Decentralized Electricity consumption Solar Central power A high electrification in scenario 3 and 4 Wind/solar increased Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

10 Electricity consumption TWh Increased electricity for heating sector Especially in scenario 3 and 4 From 3% (scenario 1) to 35% electric 30 vehicles (EV/PHEV) in scenarios Moderate nationer Moderat Europa Grønne nationer Grønt Europa Alm. forbrug Opvarmning Procesenergi Elbiler Øvrig transport Elektrolyse 30. november Dok 15/

11 Udlandsforbindelser i AF2016 og scenarier 2030 Forbindelse Navn AF Scenarie 1 Scenarie 2 Scenarie 3 Scenarie 4 Eksport Import Eksport Import Eksport Import Eksport Import Eksport Import Østdanmark - Sverige Øresund Østdanmark - Tyskland Kontek Østdanmark - Tyskland Kriegers Flak Vestdanmark - Norge Skagerrak Vestdanmark - Norge DKW-OSL Vestdanmark - Sverige Konti-Skan Vestdanmark - Tyskland Vestdanmark - Holland COBRAcable Vestdanmark - Østdanmark Storebælt Vestdanmark - England Viking Link Østdanamark - Polen Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

12 Energinet scenarios towards 2030 Scenario 3 Green Nations Scenario 4 Green Europe High focus RE DK1-Norway +500 MW DK2-Poland: +600 MW DK2-Sweden: +800 MW National focus DK1-Norway (-500 MW) No DK1-UK connection DK1-D (-2000) EU Energy Union DK2-Poland +600 MW Scenario 1 Moderate Nations Low focus RE Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and 2050 Scenario 2 Moderate Europe 13

13 Post Towards RE-based energy supply in 2050 P2G HP HP Industry- HP EV/PHEV Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

14 Reference with fossil free power and heat system Import power Transit Power-system Export power Solar Wind Bio CHP and boiler Gas CHP/boiler Electrolysis Central Heat pumps Heat systems (DH and block heat) DK2014: 7,8 ton CO2/capita from energy High temp HT-HP. El-proces Light,it,cool Procesheat Bio, waste etc. Natural gas Fossil oil Ethanol Anaerob digestion DK 2035: Gassystems (methan/synthesisgas/h2) 3,14 ton CO2/capita incl. local systems (from Energy) Transit Gas storage Gascathalysis etc. Seatransport Bioplast etc. Thermal gasification HeatP. Boiler EV/PHEV CE/FC Building heating. Roadtransport Railwaytransport Aviation Liquid fuels fossil/re (Gasoline, Diesel, Ethanol, Methanol, DME etc.) 14 mio ton CO2 10 TWh=36 PJ Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

15 Feasibility study with reduced fossil oil demand Import power Transit Power system Export power Solar Wind Bio CHP and boiler Gas CHP and boiler Electrolysis High temp Central heat pumps Heat systems (DH and block) HT-VP. El-proces Light, it,cool. Procesheat Bio, waste etc. Varmep. Kedel EV/PHEV FM/FC Building heating. Roadtransport Natural gas 6 mio ton CO2 Ethanol Anaerob digestion Gas-systems (methan/synthesisgas/h2) incl. local systems Gas storage Seatransport Bioplast etc. Gascathalysis etc. Transit Liquid fuels fossil/re (Gasoline, Diesel, Ethanol, Methanol, DME etc.) Case with straw used for biogas Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and 2050 Thermal gasification Railwaytransport Aviation 10 TWh=36 PJ

16 Feasibility study reduced fossil oil demand Import power Transit Power system Export power Solar Wind Bio CHP and boiler Gas CHP and boiler Electrolysis DK2014: 7,8 ton CO2/capita from energy High temp Central heat pumps Heat systems (DH and block) HT-VP. El-proces Light, it,cool. Procesheat Bio, waste etc. Varmep. Kedel EV/PHEV FM/FC Building heating. Roadtransport Natural gas 6 mio ton CO2 Ethanol Anaerob digestion Gas-systems (methan/synthesisgas/h2) incl. local systems Gas storage Gascathalysis etc. Seatransport Bioplast DK 2035: 1,2 ton CO2/capita (from fossil Energy) etc. Transit Liquid fuels fossil/re (Gasoline, Diesel, Ethanol, Methanol, DME etc.) Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and 2050 Case with straw used for biogas Thermal gasification Railwaytransport Aviation 10 TWh=36 PJ 18

17 Max Residual load in Periods of 1 Hour to 1 Year (2035 scenario) (analysis based on 10 year DTU wind time series) Residual load = Consumption wind/solar Analysis of scenarios for the Danish Energy system

18 Use of flexible load to reduce peak demand Now the max residual load is in a 12 hours period Analysis of scenarios for the Danish Energy system

19 Windpower in North sea region in a week with Worst case i DK From 12/12 kl and 7 days ahead GW 4 3 Sammenhængende periode på 1 uge med højeste residualforbrug Power consumption (DK) Forbrug Landvind Havvind Kystnære Sol 2 1 Wind and solar (DK) kl kl kl kl kl kl kl. 00 Start: Onsdag d. 12. december 2007 kl. 12 Andel af effekt Essential to use the geographical spread of windpower 0-0,14 0,14-0,33 0,33-0,55 0,55-0,81 0, Analysis of scenarios for the Danish Energy system

20 Use of transmission system to balance wind/solar Use of transmission system to balance fluctuating power production 2,3 TWh Gas storage (11 TWh methan-gas) Energy input to power-to-gas Interconnectors (MW) Accumulated (GWh) A 2050 EU scenarie 100% RES electricity District heat+storage Indivi. heat pump El- og plugin hybrid case 2035 Transmission system: Interconnectors yearly accumulated energy in 2035 (2,3 TWh) Analysis of scenarios for the Danish Energy system

21 Summing up The COP21 (Paris) aggreement i very ambitios. A need for very large increase in wind and solar power In Scenario 3 and 4 (Green Nations and Green Europe) the COP21 target is in high focus A need for international power-system integration and integration of power, heat,gas/fuel systems to balance the fluctuating wind Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and

22 Thank you for attention Link: Energinet scenarios - towards 2030,2035 and