Adapting to Climate Change Extreme Water Levels, Invasive Species and Harmful Algal Blooms Oh My!

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1 Adapting to Climate Change Extreme Water Levels, Invasive Species and Harmful Algal Blooms Oh My! Photo Frank Koshere Photo Anvil Lake Association Photo Frank Koshere Tim Asplund, Chief WDNR Water Resources Monitoring Section New Water Employee Training, October 24, 2012

2 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. IPCC, 2007

3 One of many signs of warming in Wisconsin days 5 th shortest All in last 30 yrs

5 Wisconsin State Climatology Office:

6 Wisconsin State Climatology Office:

7 March 2012 Hottest on record Wisconsin State Climatology Office:

8 Minnesota Public Radio Flooding in Duluth-Superior, June 2012

Hottest.Month.Ever Recorded According to the latest statistics from NOAA s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for the contiguous United States during July was 77.6 F, which is 3.

10 Hottest.Month.Ever Recorded According to the latest statistics from NOAA s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for the contiguous United States during July was 77.6 F, which is 3.3 F above the 20th-century average. This marks the warmest July and given that July is the typically the warmest month of the year the warmest month on record for the nation. Source: NOAA Climate Watch. August 8, 2012

11 Near Record Warm Summer 2012 The summer of 2012 ended up among the warmest on record in Wisconsin. Several cities in central and northeast Wisconsin recorded top-ten warmest summers--among them Green Bay and Wausau. Summer for meteorological records is defined as June 1 to August 31. Green Bay Rank Avg Temp Year Wausau Rank Avg Temp Year * Wisconsin leads the pack for the top 10 states that broke the records this summer, according to Climate Central, using NOAA data Here's the lowdown on Wisconsin: Total number of records set: 1,345-4 times the expected number of records New records were hotter by an average of 4.4 F. 41 times more record high temps than record lows. * And other years In addition, both Green Bay and Wausau set records for the most number of 90 degree days in any month. Green Bay recorded 14 and Wausau had 12 during July 2012.

12 Observed Change in Average Temperatures F from 1950 to 2006 Winter temperatures have warmed more than any other season in recent decades, especially in northwestern Wisconsin. (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)

Summary of recent historic climate 1950-2006 (based on NWS

1950 to 2006 Increase in 2 rainfalls (days/decade) 1950 to

13 Summary of recent historic climate (based on NWS records) Change in annual average precipitation (inches) 1950 to 2006 Increase in 2 rainfalls (days/decade) 1950 to to 4 (drought) 3.5 days to 1.5 days (regionally variable)

Extreme events: June 2008 storms Total Precipitation (inches), June 1-15, 2008 Stormwater infrastructure was overwhelmed Massive flooding (810 sq.

14 Extreme events: June 2008 storms Total Precipitation (inches), June 1-15, 2008 Stormwater infrastructure was overwhelmed Massive flooding (810 sq. mi) Map: NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center Water from private wells contaminated (28%) Raw sewage overflows (90 million gallons from 161 wastewater treatment plants) FEMA paid $34 million in flood damage claims Few communities even today can handle these kinds of extreme events! WICCI Stormwater Working Group

15 Should we call it Global Weirding? I prefer the term 'global weirding,' coined by Hunter Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, because the rise in average global temperature is going to lead to all sorts of crazy things from hotter heat spells and droughts in some places, to colder cold spells and more violent storms, more intense flooding, forest fires and species loss in other places. THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN NY Times Published: February 17, 2010

16 WICCI s First Adaptive Assessment Report - released Feb Authors 10 Editorial Team Members 22 Science Council Members 22 Chairs/Co-Chairs of 15 Working Groups 220 Working Group Members

WICCI s Mission Assess and anticipate climate

industry, agriculture, tourism, and other

17 WICCI s Mission Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions A.B. Sheldon WDNR Evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities Develop and recommend adaptation strategies

18 WICCI Working Groups Water Resources Human Health Milwaukee Soil Conservation Coldwater Fish Agriculture Stormwater Climate Adaptation Wildlife Plants and Natural Communities Green Bay Central Sands Hydrology Forestry Coastal Communities

Annual Temperature Change Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature ( F) from 1980 to 2055 Probability Distribution of 14 Global Climate Model Projections 50% probability temperature

19 Annual Temperature Change Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature ( F) from 1980 to 2055 Probability Distribution of 14 Global Climate Model Projections 50% probability temperature (plotted on maps) 90% chance of exceeding this temperature 10% chance of exceeding this temperature Wisconsin will warm by 4 9 F by mid-21 st Century Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison

20 Winter Summer Projected Change in Seasonal Temperatures 1980 to 2055 ( F) Spring Fall More very hot days... fewer very cold nights

Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter (0-40% increase).

21 Projected Change in Precipitation from 1980 to 2055 Change in Annual Average (inches) Probability Distributions of 14 Climate Model Projections by Month Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter (0-40% increase). Models uncertain about amount of summer rainfall Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison

Snow depth and snow cover are projected to decline due to warmer temperatures causing more melting

22 Winter Precipitation Projections for mid-21 st Century Precipitation statewide is projected to increase about 25%. Snow depth and snow cover are projected to decline due to warmer temperatures causing more melting as well as increased proportion of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. Modern Future Source: WICCI Climate Working Group Source: Nataro et al., 2010 Source: Notaro, et al. 2010

23 Number of days with intense precipitation is projected to increase across Wisconsin in 21 st century. Roughly a 25% increase in frequency. Recurrence intervals decrease from once every 10 months to once every 8 months in southern Wisconsin Once every 17 months to once every 14 months in northern Wisconsin.

24 Major Drivers of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Thermal Impacts (Increased air and water temps, longer ice-free period, more ET) Changing rainfall patterns (seasonal and spatial variability, + or water, less precip in the form of snow) Increased storm intensity (more frequent large precipitation events)

25 Key Water Resource Impacts Increased flooding Increased frequency of harmful bluegreen algal blooms Conflicting water use concerns Changes in water levels Increased sediment and nutrient loading Increased spread of aquatic invasive species

26 Buildings, roads and water/sewer systems are not currently designed for challenges from future climate changes. WICCI Stormwater Working Group Photo: Michael Kienitz Photo: Steve Zibell

27 Crystal Lake groundwater flooding

28 Photo: Warmer temperatures and increased runoff from large storm events causes water quality problems, blue-green toxins, eutrophication, etc Photo: R. Lathrop Photos: R. Lathrop, WDNR Photos: R. Lathrop, WDNR Photo: R. Lathrop Photo: Melvin McCartney, Lake Monona, June 2006

29 Anvil Lake (Vilas Co.) Water loss through evapotranspiration associated with warmer temperatures could exacerbate recurring drought effects in the future, especially in lakes and wetland systems high in the landscape. Source: USGS Source: USGS WICCI Water Resources Working Group

30 R. Lathrop Fallison Lake, Vilas County

Spring mixing Stratified Fall mixing Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov

31 Elevation (m) Elevation (m) Elevation (m) Changing Thermal Structure Earlier thermocline onset Warmer surface temp Greater temp gradient across thermocline Longer stratified period Ice covered 25 0 o C ~45 o C Spring mixing Stratified Fall mixing Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan 46 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 0 0 (from Chin Wu, UW Madison) ( o C)

32 +5 C 0 km +5 C 500 km -100% -96% Present Gain Loss Present Gain Loss Source: Mitro and Lyons, WDNR

34 Areas of uncertainty Timing, amount, and form of spring precipitation events relative to spring thaw Balance between increased precipitation and increased evapotranspiration on groundwater recharge, and subsequently lake levels and stream baseflows Short term (years to decades) vs long term (decades to century) processes

35 Modeling on Black Earth Creek Watershed shows potential for reduced streamflow, despite increased precipitation Actual evapotranspiration Change in streamflow (Source: Hunt et. al, unpublished)

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Water Resources Degradation of flood-absorbing capacity of wetlands, increased flooding and erosion Pressure to increase water

36 Exacerbation of Existing Problems Water Resources Degradation of flood-absorbing capacity of wetlands, increased flooding and erosion Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes Mining of deep aquifers increases pressure on shallow groundwater More reliance on irrigation to grow crops Source: Dave Hansen, MN Extension Service

37 Stationarity is dead. Science 2008 Traditionally, hydrologic design rules have been based on the assumption of stationary hydrology, tantamount to the principle that the past is the key to the future This assumption is no longer valid. Kundzewicz et al Contribution of Working Group II to IPCC

Water infrastructure projects Dam safety Permit decision Is it

38 If stationarity is dead Many water-related decisions are affected by our changing climate. Water infrastructure projects Dam safety Permit decision Is it a wetland or not? Is it above the ordinary high water mark? Joe Koshollek, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

39 Challenge: How to anticipate and/or accommodate climate change impacts? permits and approvals (e.g. Ch. 30, 31) plan review (wastewater facilities, dams) grant decisions (lakes and rivers, TRM) administrative rules (e.g. NR115, NR235) fishing regulations and stocking wetland and habitat restoration projects

climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial

40 Adaptation! IPCC adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. WICCI: How humans will respond to climate change in a way that will make our natural and human systems more resilient. So where do we go from here?

41 Developing a Strategy Taking pro-active approach what can we start doing now? Work within our existing strategic goals and performance measures Focus on actions that can save time, resources, and budget needs (cost effective in long run) Build upon existing efforts and priorities

. - WICCI Stormwater Working Group Assess: Floodplains and surface flooding At-risk

42 Adaptation Vulnerability assessment Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities.. - WICCI Stormwater Working Group Assess: Floodplains and surface flooding At-risk road-crossings Stormwater BMPs Emergency response capacity Wells and septic systems Hazardous materials storage

43 Adaptation Strategy: Restore Wetlands within Floodplains Potentially Restorable Wetlands Hydric soils, not currently mapped as wetland Many PRWs fall within mapped floodplains Current status: drained, usually farmed, marginal crop land, crop losses when flooded, productive during droughts Crop losses in 2008 raised Flood awareness Water quality and wildlife benefits

44 Areas in red show overlap between PRWs and 100 year floodplain Note: floodplain delineations not complete for some counties.

storage facilities to accommodate increased precipitation Restore wetlands to provide storage and

45 Carolyn Betz Herb Garm Impact: Sediment and nutrient loading will increase due to earlier and more intense spring runoff events Adaptation Strategies: Resize infrastructure such as manure storage facilities to accommodate increased precipitation Restore wetlands to provide storage and filtration Promote the use of nutrient management planning Reduce overland flow by improving infiltration

Impact: Demand for water and groundwater will increase with warmer temperatures Adaptation Strategies: Encourage large water users to locate in areas with adequate (sustainable) water sources (e.g. large rivers/great Lakes).

46 Impact: Demand for water and groundwater will increase with warmer temperatures Adaptation Strategies: Encourage large water users to locate in areas with adequate (sustainable) water sources (e.g. large rivers/great Lakes). Encourage water conservation (rural and urban) through incentives and regulation Photo - Mark Rozin/Capital Press Promote Integrated Water Management: Planning water use based on long term projections of supply and demand

Impact: Aquatic invasive species are likely to spread due to flooding and warmer temperatures Adaptation Strategies: Identify potential pathways for invasive species migrations and take preventive

47 Impact: Aquatic invasive species are likely to spread due to flooding and warmer temperatures Adaptation Strategies: Identify potential pathways for invasive species migrations and take preventive action Encourage regulatory activities aimed at preventing future invasions of exotic and invasive species Photo WDNR Continue exotic and invasive species education/awareness programs for boaters, anglers, and others Develop rapid response planning and implementation methods to improve existing aquatic invasive species control programs Photo Don Bush, WDNR

48 Adaptation Goals: From WDNR Water Division s Climate Change Strategy Protect public health by anticipating and managing for extreme events, including floods and drought Stabilize future variations in water quantity and availability by managing water as an integrated resources (by keeping water local) and supporting sustainable & efficient water use Increase resiliency of aquatic ecosystems to buffer the impacts of climate change by restoring or simulating natural processes, ensuring adequate habitat availability, and limiting impacts of human health Maintain, improve or restore water quality by promoting actions to reduce nutrient and sediment loading

49 Working Group Participants Tim Asplund WDNR, co-chair Tom Bernthal WDNR Carolyn Betz UW-Madison, co-chair Esteban Chiriboga - GLIFWC Alison Coulson UW- Madison/WDNR Steve Elmore - WDNR Andy Fayram WDNR Paul Garrison -- WDNR Steve Greb WDNR Tim Grundl UW-Milwaukee Bob Hansis WDNR Jen Hauxwell WDNR Dale Higgins US Forest Service Jim Hurley UW-Madison, cochair Randy Hunt USGS Kevin Kirsch WDNR George Kraft UW-Stevens Point Dick Lathrop WDNR Steve Loheide UW-Madison John Magnuson UW-Madison Mike Miller WDNR Theresa Nelson - WDNR Erin O'Brien Wisconsin Wetlands Association Ken Potter UW-Madison Dale Robertson USGS John Walker - USGS Steve Westenbroek USGS Chin Wu UW-Madison

Climate Change, Precipitation Trends and Water Quality David S. Liebl

Climate Change, Precipitation Trends and Water Quality David S. Liebl Wisconsin Lakes Partnership Convention Stevens Point 4/25/14 Map - Kate Barrett Wisconsin Precipitation Trends: 1950-2006 Annual Summer