Almir Guilherme Barbassa CFO and Investor Relations Officer Sepetember, Clean Energy: Meeting the Energy Challenges of the 21st Century

Transcription

1 Almir Guilherme Barbassa CFO and Investor Relations Officer Sepetember, 2007 Clean Energy: Meeting the Energy Challenges of the 21st Century 1

2 PETROBRAS Cautionary Statement The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments. Cautionary Statement for US investors The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. 2 2

3 Latin American Share of Oil World Reserves Latin American oil reserves are becoming increasingly important R/P* = 26,77 R/P* = 41,78 R/P* = 41,84 4,8% 8,0% 8,5% 5,0% 3,8% 3,5% 13,4% 8,8% 5,1% 7,6% 56,5% 6,4% 7,9% 65,1% 9,4% 11,7% 61,8% 12,7% Total 762 billion barrels Total billion barrels Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa North America Pacific Asia Latin America Total billion barrels In 20 years, Latin America proven reserves increased from 36.6 billion barrels (1984) to 101 billion. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy * Reserves/Production Latin America (years) 3

4 Net Oil Availability Latin America Russia Mbpd Asia United States OECD(- Mexico) Projected growth in oil production and demand suggests balance and independence of supply from politically unstable regions Source: Internacional Energy Agency Reference Scenario Includes Bitumen and non-conventionals, including synthetic oils. 4

5 Gas Rich Region with limited infrastructure Proven Reserves as of January 1, 2005 Huge gas reserves will allow for: ::: Regional growth in consumption replacing some demand for oil ::: Higher exports of liquids But: ::: Will require increasing energy integration and ::: Substantial investments in infrastructure covering great distances and environmentally sensitive regions 0.41 T m Tcf Mexico 2005 Gas Proven Reserves World: 179,8 T m 3 South and Central America: 7,02 T m T m Tcf Perú 0.74 T m 3 Bolivia 26.1 Tcf 4.3 T m T m 152 Tcf Tcf Venezuela Trinidad Brazil 0.74 T m Tcf 0.50 T m Tcf Argentina Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 5

6 Petrobras: a Track Record of Growth and perspective In Thousand boed 7.2% p.y. 6.8% p.y. 3,494 4, * 515 2, , , * 637 2, ,812 1,493 1,684 1, Target 2012 Target 2015 Oil + NGL Br azil Oil + NGL International Natur al Gas Br azil Natur al Gas Inter national * Includes non consolidated production 6

7 PETROBRAS World Scenario Mas esta estrutura gera externalidades negativas Projected increases in global energy demand and emissions dominated by power, and industry that represent 49% and 18% of projected CO2 emissions through 2030; Transport sector dominated by oil represents only 21% of projected increase in CO2 emissions through World Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Sector Increase (14,341 million tonnes) 7% 5% World Primary Energy Demand Increase (5,891 million tonnes) 3% 2% 8% 4% 28% 21% 49% 27% 18% Power Generation Transport Other** Industry Residential Services* Coal Gas Hydro Other renewables 28% Oil Nuclear Biomass and waste * Includes agriculture and public sector ** Includes international marine bunkers, other transformation and non-energy use 7 7

8 PETROBRAS BRIC energy consumption patterns are very different and reflect power generation 2003 Growth Rate % 3% 6% 6% 4% 2% 3% 7% 6,9% 6,3% 22% 25% 31% 37% 5,3% 5,0% 54% 1% 6% 3,5% 4,4% 45% 20% 66% 57% 50% 1,4% 3,1% 2,1% 2,6% 22% 18% 6% OCDE Russia China India Brazil OCDE Russia China India Brazil Hydroelectricity other Renewable Energy Nuclear Energy Natural Gas Oil Coal Source: EIA - International Energy Outlook 2006 Carbon Dioxide Emission GDP 8 8

9 Supply Overview - Increase in the supply of Biofuels World Supply of Biomass and Waste reached 1,176 Mtoe in 2004 (10% of total supply); According to the International Energy Agency Reference Scenario, it will reach 1,645 Mtoe in 2030, an increase of 1.3% p.a., still representing 10% of total supply. 35 Non-Renewables % 25 Shares (%) Renewables 87% Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Biomass and Waste Hydro Other Renew ables Source: World Energy Outlook

10 Ethanol Productivity O Etanol contribui para a redução do aquecimento global Biofuels usage can reduce CO 2 emissions at a 5:1 rate; Besides being a cleaner source of energy, sugar cane ethanol produces 8,3 more energy than the fossil energy. 10 Energetic balance - Ethanol 7000 Ethanol Productivity Energetic ratio liters per hectar Sugar cane Wheat Corn 0 sugar-cane - Brazil Beetroot sugarbeet- EU sugar-cane - India corn - USA wheat - EU Source: World Watch Institute 10

11 Ethanol motivated and boosted greater land productivity Brazillian Productivity + 57% MTper Ha 46,5 57,0 63,2 61,5 66,6 67,6 72,8-14% +11% World Average Productivity + 22% 64,2 65, , , ,8 55,3 58,

12 Quais seriam os motivos do diferencial de produtividade brasileira? Ethanol Performance Ethanol Engine Relative Performance* ,4% ,3% 110,0% Power 110,0% Consumption Gasoline 100% Gasohol 22% Ethanol 100% *Source: Volkswagen (Brazil) - Presentation prepared for review within The Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering at Sydney University 12

13 Petrobras: Renewable Energy and Biofuels Investments Biodiesel Plants 2012 Target Availability of 938 Thousand m3/year US$ 1.5 billion Investments H-Bio (Bio-Refining) Ethanol pipelines Ethanol Project Vessel Vegetable oil Processing 1.6 million m³/year Export of 4.7 billion m³/year of Ethanol 21% 4% 29% Aeolic Energy Solar Energy Other Sources of Renewable Energy Installed Capacity of Generation of Electric Power from 365 MW Renewable Sources Biofuels 46% Total avoided GHG emissions: 3.93 MM tons CO2 equivalent Pipelines and Ethanol Pipelines Others H-Bio 13

14 Brazil Social Fuel Certificate: How it works? If the biodiesel producer wants to have the Social Fuel Certificate, it must: 1) Buy regularly a minimum amount of raw material that comes from the household agriculture (small farmers, according to previously defined criteria); and 2) Provide the appropriate technical assistance: certificated seeds, rural technicians, best practices etc.; and 3) Sign a contract with each small farmers in terms that must be regarded as proper by a rural workers union. 14

15 Petrobras Investments to Export Ethanol New Ethanol Pipeline (1.150 Km) Ethanol collection, storage and distribution centers are spread out through producing and consuming regions Large scale marine terminals improve efficiency New Pipeline (1412 km) New Water Way for Ethanol Replan Ilha Dágua Pipeline (Current flow) Tietê-Paraná Water way Senador Canedo São Sebastião Pipeline Replan Brasília Pipeline (OSBRA) Replan Guararema Pipeline Existing Pipeline New Ethanol Pipeline (919Km) Large storage capacity necessary to regulate supply Pipelines reduce transport costs; improve energy efficiency São Paulo Marine Terminal Rio de Janeiro Marine Terminal Future Pipeline Existing Terminal Future Terminal Exportation Target: Export 4.75 MM cu.m/year in

16 Brazilian New Car Sales by Fuel ETHANOL GASOHOL FLEX - FUEL Number of Vehiclesx Year 16

17 1000 Kg/Ha Diferenças de produtividade na cana de açúcar Latin America offers excellent potential to increase ethanol production Availability of lands, water and low labor cost also benefit production in Central and South America. Latin America has the largest potential arable Sugar-Cane Productivity 72,41 Yield per Hectare 67,77 69,34 71,13 73 land per capita and only uses 13,9% of it. Potential Arable Land (1.000 ha per capita) 2,2 % of Potential Arable Land actually in use 61,4 55,6 1,7 48,6 0,6 13,9 0,2 Asia USA Central America World Average South America Brazil Asia and Pacific Europe North America Latin America Asia and Pacific Europe North America Latin America Source: FAO 17

18 Petrobras Technological Roadmaps on Biofuels Stages Large-scale deployment Petrobras Technology Evolution Technology implementation (1 st industrial unit) Demonstration (Prototype unit) R&D (including pilot plant) BTL (Biomass to liquids) BTL HBIO Biodiesel Lignocel. Ethanol 18

19 Conclusions Biofuels do contribute to: Energy security; Improvement of environment conditions in urban areas; Creation of jobs and income in rural areas; Economic development. However, in order to achieve this reality, it is required: Governmental decision with adequate public policies; Global efforts towards creation of biofuels international market; Governmental policies do exert strong influence on climate for investment because they can produce immediate impacts over costs, risks and barriers to competition. 19

20 ENVIRONMENTAL MOTIVATION!!! BIOFUELS... A SOLUTION WITH SOCIAL INCLUSION!!! 20

21 Almir Guilherme Barbassa CFO and Investor Relations Officer Sepetember, 2007 Clean Energy: Meeting the Energy Challenges of the 21st Century 21