GETTING TO ZERO: PATHWAYS TO ZERO CARBON ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS

Transcription

1 GETTING TO ZERO: PATHWAYS TO ZERO CARBON ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS Jesse D. Jenkins PhD Candidate, Institute for Data, Systems and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2 Jesse D. Jenkins PhD Candidate, MIT Institute for Data, Systems and Society Researcher, MIT Energy Initiative, Electric Power Systems Center Previously: S.M. Technology & Policy, MIT ( ) Director of Energy & Climate Policy, Breakthrough Institute ( ) Research & Policy Associate, Renewable Northwest ( ) B.S. Computer & Information Science, University of Oregon (2006) 2

3 GETTING TO ZERO 3

4 The Decarbonization Challenge Near-zero CO 2 Source: Peters et al. (2017), Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement, Nature Climate Change 7:

5 Deep Decarbonization of Electricity ~2x electricity demand Near-zero CO Source: Deep Decarboniza0on Pathways Project, High Nuclear scenario, h?p://deepdecarboniza0on.org/ 5

6 We Are Falling Behind Nuclear energy Carbon capture & storage Source: Peters et al. (2017), Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement, Nature Climate Change 7:

7 The Motivations Santee Cooper, SCE&G pull plug on roughly $25 billion nuclear plants in South Carolina July 31, 2017 Westinghouse Files for Bankruptcy, in Blow to Nuclear Power March 29, 2017 Carbon Capture Suffers a Huge Setback as Kemper Plant Suspends Work June 29,

8 Source: Peters et al. (2017), Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement, Nature Climate Change 7: Renewable Energy Excepted Wind & solar energy Biomass

9 The Motivations Xcel Energy receives shockingly low bids for Colorado electricity from renewable sources January 17, 2018 Renewable energy will be consistently cheaper than fossil fuels by 2020, report claims January 13, 2018 August 27, 2016 December 9,

10 Cost reductions since 2008 for selected technologies Source: U.S. DOE, Revolution Now. The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies 2016 Update 10

11 Do We Go All In? Image Source: go100percent.org 11

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13 there is strong agreement in the literature that a diversified mix of low-co 2 generation resources offers the best chance of affordably achieving deep decarbonization. 13

14 The Mental Model A race to beat fossil fuels on cost Levelized cost of electricity ($/MWh) $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Solar $/MWh Solar GW Coal $/MWh Gas $/MWh Global installed solar PV capacity (GW) Data Source: Lazard (2017), Levelized Cost of Energy 2017, h?ps:// cost- of- energy- 2017/. 14

15 The (Flawed) Mental Model? 15

16 The (Correct) Mental Model A race between declining cost and declining value Solar PV average market value ($/kwh) Solar PV market share (% of total annual energy) Source: Sivaram & Kann (2016), Solar needs a more ambi0ous cost target, Nature Energy Vol. 1 (April 2016). 16

17 GenX: Power System Optimization Highly configurable Detailed operating constraints Hourly resolution Transmission & distribution networks Distributed energy resources 17

18 Declining Value: Four Mechanisms 1. Declining fuel-saving value (energy substitution) 2. Decreasing capacity value (capacity substitution) 3. Increasing curtailment (wasted generation when supply exceeds demand) 4. (Increasing reserve requirements and transmission network costs) 18

19 CO 2 Limit 400 t/gwh Energy (GWh) Hour of the Day Nuclear Gas CCGT Wind Solar Annual Energy Share (%) Gas CT Storage discharging Demand shifting satisfied Demand curtailment Storage charging Demand shifting delayed Wind curtailment Solar curtailment Annual Marginal Curtailment (%) 19

20 CO 2 Limit 100 t/gwh Annual Energy Share (%) Energy (GWh) Net demand peak moved to February evening Hour of the Day Nuclear Gas CCGT Wind Solar Gas CT Storage discharging Demand shifting satisfied Demand curtailment Storage charging Demand shifting delayed Wind curtailment Solar curtailment Annual Marginal Curtailment (%) 61 20

21 CO 2 Limit 50 t/gwh Energy (GWh) Net demand peak moved to February evening Hour of the Day Nuclear Gas CCGT Wind Solar Annual Energy Share (%) Gas CT Storage discharging Demand shifting satisfied Demand curtailment Storage charging Demand shifting delayed Wind curtailment Solar curtailment Annual Marginal Curtailment (%) 74 21

22 CO 2 Limit 1 t/gwh Annual Energy Share (%) 0 16 Energy (GWh) Hour of the Day Nuclear Gas CCGT Wind Solar Gas CT Storage discharging Demand shifting satisfied Demand curtailment Storage charging Demand shifting delayed Wind curtailment Solar curtailment Annual Marginal Curtailment (%) 36 22

23 The role of flexible base resources in deep decarbonization of power systems with Nestor Sepulveda, Richard Lester, Charles Forsberg, & Fernando de Sisternes, Joule (revise and resubmit) 23

24 What We Find Fuel saving variable resources Wind Solar PV Solar thermal Run-of-river hydro Energy storage Demand response Biogas CTs Fast burst resources Nuclear Coal and gas w/ccs Geothermal & biomass Seasonal storage? Flexible base resources 24

25 100 A Balanced Portfolio 1 g/kwh CO 2 emissions limit (99.9% decline) Energy (GWh) Hour of the Day Nuclear Gas CCGT Wind Solar Gas CT Storage discharging Demand shifting satisfied Demand curtailment Storage charging Demand shifting delayed Wind curtailment Solar curtailment 25

26 100 A Balanced Portfolio 1 g/kwh CO 2 emissions limit (99.9% decline) Energy (GWh) Fast Burst Resources Fuel Saving Resources Flexible Base Resources Hour of the Day 26

27 Note 2x increase in y-axis scale Without Flexible Base Resources 1 g/kwh CO 2 emissions limit (99.9% decline) Energy (GWh) Fast Burst Resources Fuel Saving Resources Hour of the Day Nuclear Gas CCGT Wind Solar Gas CT Storage discharging 27

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29 Very high shares of wind and solar entail significant curtailment (even with storage and flexible demand ) Renewable energy curtailment (% of 2015 total U.S. electricity consumption) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Renewable energy market share (% annual energy) Graphic is author s with data from: Frew et al Flexibility mechanisms and pathways to a highly renewable US electricity future. Energy 101: Data from Fig. 9 for Indep. PEV scenarios. 29

30 Very high shares of wind and solar entail significant curtailment ( and trans-continental power grid expansion) Renewable energy curtailment (% of 2015 total U.S. electricity consumption) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reduction in curtailment by aggregating all 10 FERC regions in continental U.S. 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Renewable energy market share (% annual energy) Graphic is author s with data from: Frew et al Flexibility mechanisms and pathways to a highly renewable US electricity future. Energy 101: Data from Fig. 9 for Agg. PEV scenarios. 30

31 To reach 90% renewable electricity in the United States, NREL s Renewable Energy Futures study (Mai, et al. 2014) propose a doubline of U.S. long-distance transmission 31

32 MacDonald, Clack et al envision a continent-spanning HVDC supergrid to link all US regions Graphic source: MacDonald et al Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions. Nature Climate Change 6:

33 as does Frew et al Graphic source: Frew et al Flexibility mechanisms and pathways to a highly renewable US electricity future. Energy 101: 65-78

34 The Importance of Flexible Base Resources Annual energy share / Cost reduction 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Moderate storage cost reduction (50% below 2016) Flexible base energy share Percent cost reduction vs renewable only Deep storage cost reduction (75% below 2016) 0% New England Texas Texas % Energy % Cost Reduction % Energy % Cost Reduction % Energy % Cost Reduction % Energy % Cost Reduction New England Source: Sepulveda, Jenkins et al. (forthcoming), The role of flexible base resources in deep decarboniza0on of power systems 34

35 Flexible Base Options 35

36 Seasonal Storage? Energy storage capacity required in 100% renewable energy scenarios for U.S. deep decarbonization Graphic source: Jenkins & Therntsrom Deep Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector: Insights from Recent Literature. Energy Innovation Reform Project. 36

37 For comparison, the ten largest pumped hydro storage facilities in the United States provide enough energy storage capacity to supply average U.S. electricity needs for just 43 minutes. Photo of Grand Coulee Dam and John W. Keys III Pump-Generating Plant. Credit: US Bureau of Reclamation 2015 U.S. electricity consumption from EIA. Storage capacity from DOE Global Energy Storage Database. 12

38 John W. Keys III Pump-Generating Plant and Banks Lake Reservoir at Grand Coulee Dam: 25 GWh or 3 minutes and 30 seconds of storage. 27 miles 2015 U.S. electricity consumption from EIA. Storage capacity from DOE Global Energy Storage Database. 13

39 John W. Keys III Pump-Generating Plant and Banks Lake Reservoir at Grand Coulee Dam: 25 GWh or 3 minutes and 30 seconds of storage. 13

40 Storing 2-4 months of US consumption in flow batteries would fill between 9 and 52 of these lakes 13

41 It s Not a Straight Line to Zero Carbon Variable Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas 100% 90% 80% Texas New England Energy Share 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Emissions limit (t/gwh) 41

42 Policy Insights 1. Policy makers should not compare resources using cost; must consider value and distinct roles in a specific system context. 42

43 Policy Insights 2. Policy support should not exclude nuclear or carbon capture and storage; they play distinct flexible base role 43

44 Policy Insights 3. Technology policy needs to make multiple bets in each class of resource, including flexible base resources 44

45 Policy Insights 4. Not a straight-line path to zero carbon; beware lock-in from myopic policymaking 45

46 Policy Insights 5. Given uncertainty, policies should, where possible, create and preserve maximum optionality and avoid lock-in and dead ends 46

47 Concluding Thoughts Cost Air pollutants Land area impact Industry scale-up and energy intensity rates Technical and reliability challenges Up- & down-stream environmental impacts 47

48 Concluding Thoughts Hypothe0cal scoring of balanced solu0on set Cost Air pollutants Land area impact Industry scale-up and energy intensity rates Technical and reliability challenges Up- & down-stream environmental impacts 48

49 Concluding Thoughts Hypothe0cal scoring of unbalanced solu0on set Cost Air pollutants Land area impact Industry scale-up and energy intensity rates Technical and reliability challenges Up- & down-stream environmental impacts 49

50 Jesse D. Jenkins PhD Candidate, MIT Institute for Data, Systems and Society Researcher, MIT Energy Initiative, Electric Power Systems Center Google Scholar: bit.ly/scholarjenkins LinkedIn: jessedjenkins 50