THE BREAKTHROUGH OF PHOTOVOLTAICS. Alessandro Massi Pavan

Transcription

1 THE BREAKTHROUGH OF PHOTOVOLTAICS Alessandro Massi Pavan Sesto Val Pusteria June 30 th, 2016

2 OUTLINE Introduction State of the art History and breakthrough The future Conclusions

3 UNLIMITED ENERGY SOURCE Perez R, Perez M. A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet. IEA 2009

4 RENEWABLES MARKET

5 JOBS IN THE RES SECTOR IRENA Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2015

6 RES CUMULATIVE POWER

7 FUTURE ENERGY MIX Global Energy Assessment (GEA), 2013 IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014

8 AN «ANCIENT» IDEA

9 ADVANTAGES OF PHOTOVOLTAICS Fuel source is vast and essentially infinite Very low O&M costs Relatability and durability Easy and quick installation Modular technology No moving parts (no noise) No emissions

10 ADVANTAGES OF PHOTOVOLTAICS Can be integrated into new and existing buildings High public acceptance New distributed and no specialized jobs Choice and control Daily output peak can match the local demand Distributed generation (can be installed at nearly any point-of-use)

11 FALSE MYTHS PV represents a niche market PV is too expensive PV modules never recover the energy required in making them No more R&D is needed PV requires too much land to ever meet significant fraction of world needs PV is polluting just like all other high-technology industries The low PV efficiency is not a problem

12 EROEI Raugei M. The energy return on energy investment (EROI) of photovoltaics: methodology and comparison with fossil fuel life cycles. Energy Policy 45 (2012)

13 OUTLINE Introduction State of the art History and breakthrough The future Conclusions

14 PV CUMULATIVE POWER WORLD PVPS 2014 Snapshot pf global PV markets IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014 EUROPE IEA National Survey report on PV Power Applications in Italy, 2014

15 PV CUMULATIVE POWER WORLD PVPS 2014 Snapshot pf global PV markets IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014 ITALY IEA National Survey report on PV Power Applications in Italy, 2014

16 PV CUMULATIVE POWER WORLD CHINA JAPAN

17 OVERVIEW

18 OVERVIEW YEAR Germany [Wp/per capita] Italy [Wp/per capita] Italy/Germany [%] COUNTRY Installed Power [GW] Population [Milions] Wp/per capita Germany Italy Japan Europe USA China India

19 PV ENERGY Trends 2014 in Photovoltaic Applications - IEA

20 MANUFACTURING AND INSTALLATIONS PV MODULE MANUFACTURER PV PLANTS INSTALLED CHINA 45% EUROPE 83% EUROPE 41% JAPAN 6% USA 7% USA 6% JAPAN 4% OTHERS 5% CANADA 3% CHINA 3% PV MODULE MANUFACTURER PV PLANTS INSTALLED CHINA 65% CHINA 32% EUROPE 16% EUROPE 24% JAPAN 9% JAPAN 17% USA 2% USA 12% CANADA 2% CANADA 2% isupply PV in 2011 prepares for 22 Gigawatts - REN21, 2013 Trends 2014 in Photovoltaic Applications - IEA

21 GROUND-MOUNTED PV SYSTEMS MW MW MW -

22 C&I ROOFTOP PV SYSTEMS Courtesy of Barbara Terreni Hanwa Q Cells

23 OUTLINE Introduction State of the art History and breakthrough The future Conclusions

24 PV HISTORY Breyer C, Gerlach A Global overview on grid parity, Progress in photovoltaic: research and applications , 1975, 1995, 2015 marks a fundamental milestone in the history of PV: THE GRID PARITY and the FUEL PARITY occurring in many countries of the world!!! Sesto Val Pusteria - June 22 nd -26 th, 2015

25 GRID AND FUEL PARITIES - The grid-parity occurs when the price of electricity for the end consumer is lower than the generation cost from PV - The fuel-parity occurs when the cost of electricity from PV is comparable with the one from conventional technologies (such as thermoelectric and hydroelectric power plants)

26 THE ITALIAN CASE GRID PARITY The Grid Parity is achieved for any condition and type of customer F. Pauli, G. Sulligoi, V. Lughi, A. Massi Pavan Grid Parity in the Italian C&I electricity market IEEE ICCEP, Alghero, 2015 Average electricity Price in Italy Type of customer Price [ uro cent/kwh] Residential - Trieste 20.8 Residential Rome, Palermo 28.3 Commercial - Industrial 19.3

27 PBTs IN ROME YEAR Electricity Price [ /kwh] Overnight Capital Cost [ ] 2003 Initial Capital Outlay , First feed-in tariff , Last feed-in tariff , No incentives , A. Massi Pavan, M. Chiandone, V. Lughi, G. Sulligoi Despite the attainment of grid-parity the Italian PV market does not take off. An analysis RPG, 2014

28 Cash Flow [k ] C&I PV PLANT year

29 EXAMPLES - Cost of the Plant - Yield of the plant - Where - How - Interest rate - Self-Consumption -.

30 IMPIANTO DOMESTICO TRIESTE DETRAZIONE IRPEF AUTOCONSUMO 30% TR = 8.5 ANNI AUTOCONSUMO 50% TR = 7.5 ANNI AUTOCONSUMO 100% TR = 5.8 ANNI

31 IMPIANTO COMMERCIALE/INDUSTRIALE AUTOCONSUMO 100% - TIPICO CERTIFICATI BIANCHI COSTO IMPIANTO /kwp TR = 5.8 ANNI TRIESTE

32 SICILIAN FUEL PARITY MEDIAN VALUE OF LCOE 71.3 /MWh A. Massi Pavan et al. Leading the way toward fuel parity in pv: the utility-scale market in Sicily, Italy EEEIC, 2016

33 LCOE [ /kwh] THE ROLE OF THE COST OF MONEY UTILITY SCALE PV PLANT OCS [ /Wp] 1,200,00 O&MC [%] 4% Yield [kwh/kwp] 1,496 Module degradation rate [%/year] 0.7 7,5 3,6 4,1 4,7 5,3 6 6, COST OF THE MONEY [%]

34 GRID AND FUEL PARITY PV BREAKTHROUGH - The grid-parity IS obtained for almost all the residential and C&I applications - In Sicily the Utility-Scale PV plants are approaching the fuel-parity The end of incentives phase and the new opportunities represented by the grid and fuel-parity pave the transition from the childhood to maturity of the photovoltaic market

35 OUTLINE Introduction State of the art History and breakthrough The future Conclusions

36 TOWARD GLOBAL GRID AND FUEL-PARITY TODAY PERFORMANCES YESTERDAY MODULES IEA PVPS Annual report 2012 TOMORROW - BOS BOS (Balance Of the System) All costs except the PV modules Modules [ /Wp] BOS [ /Wp] System [ /Wp] BOS/system [%] ,5 12, ,5 1, ,1 1,3 2, ,6 0,85 1,45 61 Reduction [%] /

37 CAPACITY FORECASTING IRENA The power to change: solar and wind cost reduction potential to 2025

38 NEW VISIONS IRENA The power to change: solar and wind cost reduction potential to 2025

39 OUTLINE Introduction State of the art History and breakthrough The future Conclusions

40 CONCLUSIONS o The PV market is the fastest growing in the renewables sector o Europe led this growth in the past, while today China, Japan and USA are the drivers of the market o The attainment of the grid and fuel parities represent a fundamental milestone in the history of this solar technology o The PV LCOE will continue to drop in the future and the market seems having in the near future the potential to do not stop growing exponentially

41 POWER SUPPLY CHAIN ITALY GSE, Rapporto Statistico 2013

42 It is the greatest of all mistakes to do nothing because you can only do little

43 CONCLUSIONS o Tell people what you discover, feel, think (and not only what you are expected to say) o If you want to be a researcher do not just (believe) copy results of others (especially when these are not results of researchers but of BAU people), do not bring them to people as yours. Bring (believe) your experience o Let your curiosity be the main stream of your path o This will help you to live life rather than just survive

44 We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them

45 THANK YOU! Sesto Val Pusteria June 30 th, 2016

46 IMPIANTO DOMESTICO TRIESTE AUTOCONSUMO 30% TR = 14.5 ANNI AUTOCONSUMO 50% TR = 12 ANNI AUTOCONSUMO 100% TR = 8 ANNI Trieste, 24 maggio 2016 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN