The energy future based in wind and solar energy?!

Transcription

1 The energy future based in wind and solar energy?! Christian Breyer Professor for Solar Economy, Lappeenranta University of Technology Millennium Breakfast Meeting Aalto Design Factory Espoo, September 23, 2015

2 What is the Vision? 2

3 What is the key problem? Climate Change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen. N. Stern, Economics of Climate Change,

4 IPCC mitigation in energy sectors source: IPCC, th AR Synthesis Report 4 Key insights: GHG emissions in the power sector to be zero by 2050 ALL new investments MUST fulfill this requirement

5 New installed RE capacities not fully on track Key insights: 50% of new capacities are RE Gas plants can be used as bridge Coal and nuclear(~30%) fully unsustainable 5

6 New installed capacities on track (EU28, Nordic) 6 Fortum Strategy Meeting

7 We have a dramatic subsidy problem Key insights: global energy subsidies are almost fully allocated for fossil (and nuclear) fuels fossil fuel subsidies are as large as global expenditures for the health sector RE would grow much faster if harmful fossil-nuclear subsidies would be phased-out 7

8 Capacity expectations till 2030 and 2040 PV ER Adv ER 2DS hi-ren NPS GW 3725 GW 1799 GW 1721 GW 1927 GW 647 GW 856 GW GW 6678 GW 3687 GW 3199 GW 3277 GW 930 GW 1396 GW Wind GW 3064 GW 1282 GW 1600 GW 982 GW 1288 GW GW 5892 GW 2033 GW 2150 GW 1321 GW 1873 GW Key insights: leading reports had been close to consensus for 2030 and 2040, but Greenpeace is now pushing IEA WEO is laggng behind due to assuming wrong growth pattern 8 source: Greenpeace, BNEF, IEA

9 WEO key failure: linear vs logistic growth all new renewables (ex hydro) solar PV Overview: World Energy Outlook (WEO) is regularily wrong with RE, since they are based on the wrong growth pattern (linear vs logistic growth) 3 phases of RE: negligible, not relevant, relevant but not enough 4 th phase pending: RE is the solution 4 th phase means tremendous growth ahead my number for 2030: about TWh RE gen 9 download: source: Metayer M., Breyer Ch., Fell H.-J., The projections for the future and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other Renewable Energy technologies, 31st EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 14-18

10 Low Efficiency High Efficiency What is the pathway? Fortum s compass - Energy is an enabler Solar Economy Solar based production with high overall system efficiency Hydro Sun 10 Oil Traditional energy production Exhaustible fuels that burden the environment Coal Gas Fortum High Emissions Strategy Meeting CHP Advanced energy production Energy efficient and/or low-emission production CCS Geothermal Nuclear tomorrow Nuclear today Bio Ocean Storage Demand Response Wind Active Consumer Smart applications Interconnectors source: Brunila A., Fortum Power Emission and free heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics

11 What are the real low carbon investments? 11 source: Schneider M. and Froggatt A., The World Nuclear Industry Status Report

12 Cost of cleantech solutions Key insights: PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-ccs is too expensive nuclear and coal-ccs are high risk technologies high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed 12 source: Agora Energiewende, Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174

13 Germany 100% RE (power and heat sector) PV share ~25% 13 source: Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., % Renewables for Electricity and Heat a Holistic Model for a Future German Energy System, 7 th IRES, Berlin

14 Finland - 100% RE (power, heat, mobility sectors) PV share ~16% (of annual electricity generation) 14 source: Child M., et al., The role of solar PV for 100% renewable energy supply in Finland, 31 st EUPVSEC

15 Total annual costs (M /a) Total annual costs: Sustainable Finland * WACC 7% 15% BAU: + 3 b New Nuclear: + 2 b Variable costs - other Variable costs - CO₂ Variable costs - fuel Fixed operation costs Annualized investment costs Basic 100% RE 2050 Basic Low Nuclear 2050 Basic Medium Nuclear 2050 Basic New Nuclear 2050 Low Biomass 100% RE 2050 Low Biomass Low Nuclear 2050 Low Biomass Medium Nuclear 2050 Low 2050 BAU Biomass New Nuclear ** CO 2 price /t BAU: b rather likely according to Luderer G. et al., Environ.Res.Lett., 8, , 2013 Key insights: Stranded investments in nuclear/ coal power stations not accounted (higher WACC?*) Test scenarios have high level of investment Reference scenarios have high level of fuel and CO₂ costs (risk of high CO 2 price**) 15 source: Child M. and Breyer Ch., Vision and Initial Feasibility Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, 17 th Int. Conf. of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, June 11-12

16 Methodology Full system 16 Renewable energy sources PV ground-mounted (optimally tilted) PV rooftop Wind onshore Hydro run-of-river Hydro dam Geothermal CSP Waste Biogas Biomass Electricity transmission node-internal AC transmission interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options Batteries Pumped hydro storages Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 from air North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supply Dmitrii Gas Bogdanov storage Dmitrii.Bogdanov@lut.fi Energy Demand Electricity Water Desalination Industrial Gas download:

17 South America 100% RE (power and gas sector) PV share ~40% 17 download: source: Barbosa L.S.N.S., et al., Complementarity of hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% RE energy supply: South America as an example, Rio 15 World Climate & Energy Event, Rio de Janeiro, September 4

18 North-East Asia 100% RE (power and gas sector) PV share ~42% 18 source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply: Distributed small-scale and centralized largescale solar PV as a major energy source, 31 st EUPVSEC

19 Israel 100% RE (power sector) 19 PV share ~90% download: source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., The Role of Solar Energy towards 100% Renewable Power Supply for Israel: Integrating Solar PV, Wind Energy, CSP and Storages, 19th Sede Boqer Symposium on Solar Electricity Production, February 23-25

20 Resources and Energy Demand Key insights: no lack of energy resouces limited conventional resources solar and wind resources need to be the major pillars of a sustainable energy supply Remark: conventional resources might be lower than depicted by Perez 20 source: Perez R. and Perez M., A fundamental look on energy reserves for the planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50

21 Learning from Nature photons-to-biomass biomass-to-fuel source: ETOGAS, 2013 Key insights: processes well established efficiency of photons-to-biomass is quite low efficiency of photons-to-biomass-to fuel is even lower 21

22 A short history of the solar cell efficiency broad variety of PV technologies continuous increase of efficiencies theoretical maximum at 86% 22 source: NREL, Solar Efficiency Diagram

23 Energieeffizienz - PKW Tesla - Elektromotor Porsche - Verbrennungsmotor km/h in 4,0 s; 185 kw, ; 210 km/h max; 400 km Reichweite; 12 kwh/100km Kosten: 90 MJ; 3,00 /100km PV-Breakeven in 4 Jahren km/h in 4,7 s; 261 kw; , 280 km/h max; 460 km Reichweite; 13,8 l/100km Kosten: 440 MJ; 16,50 /100km energetisch Faktor 5

24 Diagram of Syngas Conversion Processes Naphta CO 2 Source: P.L. Spath and D.C. Dayton, Preliminary Screening - Technical and Economic Assessment of Synthesis Gas to Fuels and Chemicals with Emphasis on the Potential for Biomass-Derived Syngas. NREL/TP

25 But do we know the long-term PV demand? The results of some recent studies might help 25

26 Focus on PV for the year 2050 conservative in heat and mobility sector 26 all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV ( 5 TWp) BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios closer view to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline

27 Maximum (visionary) solar PV Market long-term Key question: What is the long-term maximum solar PV demand globally? Assumptions: global population: 10 billion people energy consumption level: today s EU28 average should guarantee a good standard of living energy generation: primary energy demand supplied by power technologies, mainly wind energy and solar energy, due to major constraints, like resources, costs, emissions and efficiency energy demand: sectors power, heat and mobility use different forms of energy, based on electricity efficiency of solar PV: doubling of system efficiency from ave 15% today to 30% (impact on area demand) scenarios: breakthrough progress of batteries: Yes (PV share 40% of total) / No (PV share 25%) 27

28 Alternative long-term approach beyond 2050 key assumptions based on IEA-WEO 2014 long-term global average TPED on EU level of today world population stabilized at 10 bn people share of solar PV between 25%-40%, depending on battery breakthrough and CSP competitiveness gain in PV system efficiency to 30% (area impact) shift of non-power TPED to power (heat pumps, EV, RO desalination, etc.: power-to-heat/gas/fuel/water) no PE efficiency gain (gain in some sectors, but limiting efficiencies in power-to-fuel) key results TWp PV capacity in the long-term beyond 2050 no limitation in area demand (or other resources) 8-9 doublings of capacity for learning curve ~250 /kwp target PV capex beyond 2050 (have in mind: major capex reduction until 2030) 12 /MWh target LCOE for global ave yield PV may become THE least cost energy source 28 source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31 st EU PVSEC

29 Global 100% RE (all sectors) Role of PV Key insights: exponential growth of PV needed for some further decades 2030 results inline with international institutions, BUT not 2040 onwards highest absolute growth around the mid of this century 40% solar PV share may be not the upper limit (North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Israel results) techno-economic least cost solutions include large shares of both, distributed AND centralised PV 29 source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31 st EU PVSEC

30 New Business Cases: RE-PtG-LNG 30 source: Fasihi M., et al., Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants, 31 st EUPVSEC

31 New Business Cases: RE-based desalination Overview: clean water for all (and nearly everywhere) is no wishful thinking water crisis is rather a managment failure than a techno-economic issue 31 Energy download: Future based in wind and solar energy Christian Breyer christian.breyer@lut.fi source: Caldera U., et al., Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: Economics, global demand and the impact of full load hours, 31 st EUPVSEC

32 Summary 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable! zero fossil CO 2 emissions by 2050 are not yet reflected in energy markets dramatic high fossil fuel subsidies block RE market growth international institutions see strong growth, except IEA WEO lacking behind 100% RE scenarios understanding improves fast the shift to power in the gas, desalination, heat and mobility sector will be driven by higher supply of least cost solar PV and wind sites 40% solar PV share for global energy supply may be realistic (with upside potential) TWp installed PV capacities in the long-term may be feasible new business cases arise, such as RE-PtG-LNG or RE-desalination 32

33 Thanks for your attention and to the team!