VO Kernenergie und Umwelt TU Graz. Eileen Langegger,

Transcription

1 VO Kernenergie und Umwelt TU Graz Eileen Langegger,

2 Biblis A Biblis B Brokdorf Brunsbüttel Emsland, Lingen Grafenrheinfeld Grohnde Gundremmingen B Gundremmingen C Isar I, Essenbach Isar II Krümmel, Geesthacht Neckarwestheim I Neckarwestheim II Philippsburg I Philippsburg II Unterweser, Esensham Module 12 Europe six years after Fukushima

3 Situation in Europa after Fukushima Fukushima was a major nuclear accident (INES 7) No persons were killed due to overexposure No delayed radiation effects expected Large media coverage especially in German speaking countries The accident had a big international impact on nuclear power safety The role of the IAEA was rather disappointing In Europe only Germany, Switzerland and Italy reconsidered their nuclear power program

4 Europe after Fukushima Red: Phase out of NPP s Green: Continue with NPP s Yellow: No major changes

5 Updated State of NPPs Worldwide NPP in operation : 451 in 31 countries Net power: 395 GWe Net energy production: 2628 TWh NPP under construction: 58 NPPs with total capacity of 60 GWe net in 17 countries (such as Argentina (1), Belarus (2), Brasil (1), China (16), Finland (1), France (1), India (7), Japan (2), Korea (4), Pakistan (2), Russia (6), Slovakia (2), Taiwan (2), USA (2), UAE (4)) NPP under planning worldwide: 125 units in various planning stages in 25 countries such as China (>30), Russia (>30), India (>6), Turkey (5)

6 Belgium 7 nuclear power plants in operation licensed up to units in Doel, 3 units in Tihange Pressurized Water type (PWR) first unit operational since 1974 total capacity 5900 MWe 58% of the population favours nuclear energy NPP s cover 55% of the electricity needs of Belgium 45% mostly gas-fired and some coal plants Phase out decision after Fukushima by 2025, this decision might be reversed depending on the energy situation

7 Bulgaria During EU accession negotiations Bulgaria committed to close Kozloduy 1 & 2 by the end of 2002 and units 3 & 4 by the end of All four units are VVER-440/230 reactors (1st generation) Two VVER 1000/320 at Kozloduy continue to operate producing 1/3 of the country s electricity needs Plans for two VVER 1000/320 at Belene officially started in September 2008, however after several years of negotiations with Rosatom the two projects were cancelled Another Westinghouse AP-1200 is now under discussion at the same site The main problem is finding investors for this project China & Russia will invest No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

8 Czech Republic Czech Republic operates four VVER 440/213 at the Dukovany site and two VVER 1000/320 at the Temelin site producing appr. 1/3 of the country s electricity needs Dukovany 1-4 has been upgraded to 500 MWe each and Temelin 1 & 2 to 1050 MWe by Skoda by replacing the high pressure turbines and refurbishing the generators In July 2008 Czech Republic announced a plan to build two more reactors at Temelin totalling up to 3400 MWe and two units at the Dukovany site to be operational between 2035 to Three nuclear vendors have qualified to submit formal offers for the construction of units 3 and 4 at Temelin (NUCNET 197/ /2011) Westinghouse with its AP1000, Korea Electric Power Company KEPCO, and a consortium comprising of Skoda, Atomstroyexport and Gidropress with the MIR (Modernised International) (->NucNet Insider / No. 15 / 16th July 2015) Dukovany extension will start in 2035, several bids received

9 CEZ conditions for NPP tender PWR type 3+ generation existing NPP sites will be used output MWe turn key delivery compliance with the Czech legislation and IAEA, EUR (European Utility Requirements), WENRA conditions (Western European Nuclear Regulators Association) design of NPP is licensed in country of origin high participation of the Czech industry final decision of tender postponed NPP operation 2035 (NucNet Insider / No. 15 / 16th July 2015) No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, 2 NPP s at the Temelin site and 1 NPP at the Dukovany site under planning

10 Finlands nuclear program

11 Olkiluoto 3 scheduled to become operational by end of 2018 Parliament ratified on July 1, 2010 the Decisions-in-Principle (DiP), regarding Olkiluoto 4 by TVO and Fennovoima for one unit at the Hanhikvi site north of Olkiluoto Construction at Hanhikvi will start in 2018 with a Russian AES 2006 DiP was also approved for Olkiluoto 4 Finland New NPP projects DiP also approved for expanding the capacity of the spent fuel repository to be constructed in Olkiluoto. No influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, moreover 2 new NPP in concrete planning stage

12 Cost developments Autumn 2017 Paks (Hungary) Olkiluoto (Finland) Flamanville (France) Hinkley Point (UK) 2 x WWER1200 start of construction:? 1 x EPR (derzeit) start of construction: 2005 comissioning: 2018 (planned) EPR start of construction: 2007 commissioning: 2018 (planned) EPR start of construction: 2017 commissioning:? politics? costs/construction time? costs/construction time? costs? planning and construction costs per MW reactor capacity (inflation-adjusted): : 1.07 million /MW (Fessenheim) : 1.37 million /MW (Chooz 1 and 2) : 3.70 million /MW (Flamanville expected) source: general accounting office (France, 2012)

13 French nuclear program

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15 France France invests 1 billion for nuclear R&D especially for Gen IV NPP (Sarkozy ) France continues to rely on safe, independent and economic electricity supply based on NPP Further 1.3 billion will be invested in the development of regenerative energy sources (ATW July, 435) No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

16 installed power mean power lowest guaranteed wind power (March 2011)

17 Germany In June 2000 a compromise was announced which saved face for the government and secured the uninterrupted operation of the nuclear plants for many years ahead. The agreement, while limiting plant lifetime to some degree, averted the risk of any enforced plant closures during the term of the present government. The agreement put a cap of 2623 billion kwh on lifetime production by all 19 operating reactors, equivalent to an average lifetime of 32 years (less than the 35 years sought by industry). After Fukushima a political discussion started resulting in an immediate shut down of 9 older NPP s by end of 2015, further the government decided on May 29th to phase out all NPP s until 2022 German politicians state that there are enough other sources such hydro, wind, solar and biomass

18 Annual Nuclear Power Generation International Top Ten Bold: world record ,97 TWh ,04 TWh ,86 TWh ,34 TWh Grand Gulf 1 Philippsburg 2 Brokdorf Neckarwestheim 2 Isar 2 Source: DAtF, atw

19 Germany s Political System and the Nuclear Phase-out Regulatory and Political System Germany is a federal state, regarding nuclear issues, the regulator is on the federal level (Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety) States are in charge of supervising and licensing the nuclear facilities in their respective area of responsibility on behalf of the federal regulator ( federal executive administration ) including matters of decommissioning and waste management Political Parties in the German Bundestag (National Parliament): Left (in parliament since 1990) Greens (in parliament since 1983) Social Democrats Christian Democrats Large Coalition under Angela Merkel socialistic conservative/ market oriented Courtesy of DAtF, 2016

20 Way to German Phase-out (1) 1961 First electricity generation from experimental reactor in Kahl 1973 Triggered among other things by the first oil crisis, Social Democrats launched a huge programme for nuclear power plants in Germany 1980 Foundation of the Green Party mainly out of anti-nuclear movement during government of Social Democrats and Free Democrats 1987 Social Democrats changed their programme to anti-nuclear after the Chernobyl accident and several years of alienation from nuclear power 1990 In the course of German reunification, all 6 reactors of German Democratic Republic were shut down and decommissioning was started Courtesy of DAtF, 2016

21 Way to German Phase-out (2) 1998 First Federal Government involving the Greens (in coalition with Social Democrats) decided on first phase-out (in 2000/2002 life time restriction to 32 years) as a consequence 17 plants to be shut down stepwise until 2020/2022 Liberalization of German Energy Market 2010 Government of Christian Democrats and Free Democrats enacted life time extension of plants either for 8 or 14 years for the first time the atomic law separates between older and newer plants. Until then plants just had to be safe, irrespective of their age. Support of public opinion for life-time extension back to near 50 % (in 2009). Courtesy of DAtF, 2016

22 Way to German Phase-out (3) 2011 Despite a national and (later) a European stress test after the Fukushima accident proving the outstanding safety levels of German NPPs, Christian Democrats and Free Democrats together with opposition in the German Bundestag and the states decided upon a second, accelerated phase-out: Immediately after the accident the older plants (7+1) are temporarily shut down and remain so for good Remaining 9 plants to be shut-down stepwise till 2022 Today All relevant political parties act anti-nuclear, as well as about 2/3 of German population Courtesy of DAtF, 2016

23 Schedule for Shutdown of NPPs in Germany Today * Quelle: Volker Noak, RWE and (*)

24 German nuclear program

25 Gross Electricity Generation in Germany 2015 Source: BDEW, Status

26 Searching for a Final Repository Site General criteria Area at least 9 km² Earthquake zone < 1 No volcanism Groundwater permeability < m/s No data or awareness which raise doubts about the safety ( What should that mean?) Source: Courtesy of DAtF, 2016

27 Germany Shut down procedure 8 (+1 in stand by) of the oldest reactors shut-down immediately after Fukushima will not go back in operation One of them shall be kept as cold back-up reserve until elder reactors shall be shut-down in of the newest reactors to be shut down in 2022 (Isar 2, Emsland, Neckarwestheim 2) In the year 2018, a commission shall verify if the 3 newest reactors will still be needed in 2022 or can also be shut down in 2021 Existing fossil back-up power plants shall replace the nuclear reactors No nuclear produced electricity shall be imported! (Whatever this means?) A monitoring commission shall constantly watch the development of the renewable replacement energy and report to the government on a yearly basis. Major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

28 Germany before and after (ATW July p.448)

29 Germany after Fukushima

30 Effects Energy scenarios 2011 Prognois AG Higher electricity costs influence overall industry prices negativ Importe replace national production, unemployment negativ? More fossil plants, more imports negativ Costs for CO 2 certificates negativ? Investments of electricity companies positiv About 3800 km of new north-south tansmission lines are necessary by 2020 with investment of 28 billion Termination on nuclear research of HTR and LMFBR => => Willy Marth : Energiewende und Atomausstieg, 2015 ISBN

31 German electricity generating costs

32 Hungary Present 4 NPP s uprated from 440 MW to 500 MW Without open tender Hungary signed a contract with Rosatom for two 1200 MWe, the EC announced an investigation on this deal With the need to build about 6000 MWe of new generating capacity by 2030, four new nuclear plants are under consideration. Construction of the first 1200 MWe units at the Paks site will start in 2018 to be operating at 2023, the second about 2025 In 2014 Hungary signed a contract with Rosatom for two 1200 MWe 80% (or 10 billion) being financed by Russia No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

33 Italy Italy shut down four operating nuclear power reactors between 1987 and 1990 following the Chernobyl accident (Capacity 1423 MWe) However 10% of its electricity is imported nuclear power from France and Switzerland After Fukushima Italy reversed all plans for to built new NPP s On June 13, 2011 Italian population voted 94,05% vs 5,95% against nuclear power (ATW July 436) In 2005 ENEL invested in Electricité de France In 2004 ENEL bought 66% of Slovenske Electrarne (SE) with its four VVER 440/213 Bohunice and Mochovce reactors in ENEL's subsequent investment plan aimed for the completion of Mochovce units 3 & MWe gross - by being delayed to 2017/2018 In 2015 this share was resold to SE Major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

34 Netherlands Nuclear energy is seen as an important cornerstone in an affordable, low carbon energy mix. The government encourages the market to build nuclear power plants, of course within crisp and clear requirements for safety, management and disposal of radioactive waste. This vision is in line with the approach in the UK, France, Sweden and Finland. The phase-out of nuclear in Germany can give impetus to more capacity in the Netherlands. In September 2008 Delta (50% owner of Borssele) announced plans to build a second unit at Borssele, of MWe. In June 2009 it embarked upon seeking preliminary approvals.

35 Netherlands In 2009 German utility RWE agreed to buy shares for EUR 8.35 billion and announced to build new nuclear capacity in Netherlands. Delta, one of the owners of the Borssele nuclear power plant, started the licensing procedure for a new built NPP of 1600 MWe at the Borssele site. The new government is positive about nuclear energy for near and the long term. Plans have been established to build one or two AP-1000 but presently this project is on hold. No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

36 Poland Poland's largest power group announced in January 2009 plans to build two nuclear power plants by 2020, with a total capacity of 3000 MWe. First site will be at Zarnowiec about 40 km north of Gdanks, two more sites under consideration In November 2015 five companies had expressed interest in bidding: GE Hitachi, Kepco, SNC-Lavalin,Westinghouse and EdF/Areva. The tender qualification phase has been delayed, selection of an investor scheduled until No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

37 Baltic States In July 2008 the Lithuanian government decided together with several energy companies from Latvia, Estonia and Poland two new MWe nuclear power plant. In May 2011 competitive proposals from potential strategic investors were received, from Westinghouse and Hitachi GE. In July the government selected Hitachi as strategic investor. Lithuania's partners in the project, Estonia, Latvia and Poland participated in the evaluation to determine which of the two proposals was most economically advantageous. GE Hitachi plans to build a single 1350 MWe Advanced Boiling Water Reactor, several of which are operating and under construction in Japan and Taiwan. That NPP was expected to operate from The cost of the project was estimated at 4.92 billion. No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, but delays due to political problems between the Baltic States, Poland and Russia

38 Russia-Kaliningrad (Baltic Enclave) Russia* is building two nuclear plants in the Neman district of the Kaliningrad exclave, close to the border with Lithuania. This project consisted orignially of twovver-1200 units. Full construction of unit 1 began early in 2012 but was stopped in 2013; the current state of the project is unclear. Russia invited Lithuania to participate in the project but the invitation was declined. One NPP would supply the private sector and industry in KG The second NPP should export electricy to the Baltic States, Belarus as well as to Poland *Rosatom presently is involved in 10 national and 21 international projects: 4 NPPs in India, 4 NPP s in Turkey, 2 NPP s in Bulgaria,2 NPP s in Ukraina 1 NPP in Armenia, 2 NPP s in Bjelorussia, 2 NPP s in Vietnam, 2 NPP s in China, 2 NPP s in Bangladesh (ATW11/2011 p.626) No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

39 Romania Romania operates two CANDU reactors (units 1&2) with a total capacity of 1310 MWe. In July 2014 the China General Nuclear Power Group (CNPEC) signed a "binding and exclusive" cooperation agreement with CANDU Energy Inc for the construction of two more reactors (unit 3&4) at Cernavoda. In November 2015 the two companies signed a further agreement for the development, construction, operation and decommissioning of Cernavoda 3&4. The largely-new reactors will be updated versions of the CANDU 6, but not the full EC6 version, since the concrete structures are already built. They will have an operating life of 30 years with the possibility of 25-year extension. Plans exist for up to 4 more NPP in the next decade at other sites. No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

40 Slovakia

41 Slovak Republic Slovakia has four nuclear reactors generating half of its electricity and two more under construction. Government commitment to the future of nuclear energy is strong. In October 2014 Mochovce unit 3 was 80% complete and unit 4 60%. In October 2016 SE said that first power from unit 3 was expected in summer 2018, with unit 4 a year later. Plans for Bohunice 5 (V3) announced in April 2008: a MWe, using Western technology to enable MOX use. Rosatom has been exploring the prospect of being both technology provider and investor building a 1200 MWe reactor from about No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans

42 Slovenia Slovenia operates a 696 MWe Westinghouse NPP Krsko jointly owned by Croatia. Entering commercial operation in In 2001 its steam generators were replaced and the plant was uprated 6% then and 3% subsequently. Its operational life was designed to be 40 years, but a 20-year extension is being sought. A further Krsko unit is under consideration, of up to 1600 MWe. An application towards a second reactor at the Krsko nuclear power plant was submitted to the country's Ministry of Economy by GEN Energija in January It would be built from , with cost estimated at up to EUR 5 billion, and fully owned by Slovenia. Postponement for future nuclear plans due to Fukushima

43 Spain Spain operates 7 NPPs with a total capacity of 7000 MWe licensed presently to 2020 and 2024 Spain is notable for power plant uprates. It has a program to add 810 MWe (11%) to its nuclear capacity through upgrading its seven reactors by up to 13%. In 2011 the responsible minister said that nuclear plants are "essential for the supply of electricity in Spain" and that almost all nuclear power units "will be open, operating and even repowering" until 2021 or beyond. Presently no plans for new NPP s, but power uprates and life extension for existing NPP s

44 Sweden Sweden operates 9 NPPs with a total capacity of 8850 MWe Utilities expand nuclear capacity to replace the 1200 MWe lost in closure of Barsebäck 1 & 2. By the end of 2008, some 1050 MWe had been added to the nine surviving reactors. The total uprate for Ringhals plant over is about 400 MWe. The three Forsmark units were uprated for about 300 MWe. Oskarshamn 2 uprate from 613 to 840 MWe (38%) and extend its life to 60 years, but further operation is presently under negotiations. Oskarshamn 3 reactor, +250 MWe to 1450 MWe net as well as a plant's life extension to 60 years. No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, Sweden does presently not consider a nuclear phase-out

45 Nuclear Power in Switzerland 5 Nuclear Power Plants (3220 MWe) KKL Leibstadt (1984) 1165 MW e KKB-I Beznau (1969) 365 MW e KKB-II Beznau (1971) 365 MW e KKG Gösgen (1979) 970 MW e KKM Mühleberg (1971) 373 MW e 1-2 new NPP could replace the old reactors

46 Switzerland Work on projects for new NPPs stopped after Fukushima accident. Swiss Federal government proposed phase-out of nuclear for the long-term, keeping existing NPP running as long as safe operation is assured. 64% of the population considers that the country s five nuclear reactors were essential in meeting the electricity demand and reduce dependence on foreign energy sources. The Council of States (cantons) voted on the matter in September 2015, and agreed to avoid putting legal limits on the operating lives of reactors Open question also: What are the alternatives to replace 40 % nuclear electricity in CH, Imports, Gas, Renewables? Postponement for future nuclear plans due to Fukushima, November 2016 referendum with 55% pro-nuclear, 2017 phase out referendum

47 UK In 2008 announced that construction of new nuclear plants could start in mid Four of six NPPs could be in operation by First EPR site a Hinkley Point/Somerset, application on July 29, (NUCNET 177). On June 23, 2011 the national energy plan defines 8 NPP sites at Bradwell, Hartlepool, Heysham, Hinkley Point, Oldbury, Sellafield, Sizewell and Wylfa, all already existing sites of GCR NPP. The first new NPP will be located at Hinkley Point, followed by Wylfa and at the Oldbury site, at each site capacity of 3000 MWe planned. Westinghouse announced that six major European utilities were providing resources and sharing the costs of taking the AP-1000 reactor design through the pre-licensing process. In summary UK plans 12 NPP s on those 8 sites up to 2025 with investments of 100 Mrd.. (ATW July p.435) No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, 6 to 10 new NPP s planned.

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49 Emerging Nuclear Countries Nuclear power is under serious consideration in over 45 countries which do not currently have it (in a few, consideration is not necessarily at government level). These range from sophisticated economies to developing nations. The front runners after Iran are UAE, Turkey, Vietnam, Belarus, Poland and possibly Jordan.

50 Emerging Nuclear Countries In Europe: Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Ireland,Turkey. In the Middle East and North Africa: Iran (reactor now operating), Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & Kuwait, Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt,Tunisia, Libya,Algeria, Morocco, Sudan. In West-, Central- and Southern Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Uganda,Tanzania, Namibia. In Central and South America: Cuba, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru, Paraguay. In central and southern Asia: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka. In South East Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar,Australia, New Zealand.

51 Conclusions Europe was in a renaissance situation before Fukushima, in several countries (i.e. Germany) this had a strong effect on the future energy policy. However in most of the NPP countries this accident had little impact on the long term energy plans except Germany, Italy and Switzerland. There may be delays due to the financial situation, lack of heavy industry, loss of knowledge and qualified nuclear experts. Hydro and nuclear are the only choice for base-load electricty in Europe, if the CO 2 targets are kept in mind, however all energy sources must be developed in parallel under the same legal, political, economic and environmental conditions.

52 References Updated country data from: country profiles