Libo WU Center for Center for Energy Economics and

Transcription

1 Transforming into A Low Carbon Economy in Shanghai: -Path Dependence vs. Energy and Industrial System Reconstruction Libo WU Center for Energy Economics and Strategy Studies, Fudan University Institute of World Economy,Fudan University

2 price elasticity of energy consumption Annual growth rate of energy consumption Annual growth rate of GDP

3 Tokyo Energy Consumption Structure by Sector in 2003 Residential Industrial Sector Sector 10% 24% Sectoral Structure of Energy Consumption in Shanghai residential sector transportation sector commertial sector construction sector industrial sector agricultural sector 4.84% Commercial Sector 30% Transportation Sector 36% Sectoral Structure of Energy Consumption in Shanghai in % 11.26% % 54.93% Industrial sector Transportation sector Commercial sector Residential sector Others

4 Tokyo Metropolist Great London Other Petroleum types 13% Others 0% Coal 0% Electricity 35% Diesel oil/gasoline 24% Other Petroleum types 2% Others 0% Coal 1% Electricity 22% Diesel oil/gasoline 25% Gas 27% New York State Gas 51% Shanghai Other Petroleum types 26% Others 6% Coal 3% Electricity 16% Other Petroleum types 26% Others 3% Coal 24% Diesel oil/gasoline 23% Gas 26% Diesel oil/gasoline 10% Gas 1% Electricity 36%

5 Country/Region Coal Consumption for Power Supply (Thermalpower Plant) (gce/kw h) China(over 6MW) United States Japan Shanghai h % 755% Specific Energy Consumption for Ethylene (kgce/tn) China Japan Shanghai % Specific Energy Consumption for Steel Production (kgce/tn) China(key enterprises) Japan United States United Kingdom France Shanghai % Specific Energy Consumption for Synthetic Ammonia (kgce/tn) China(large) United States Shanghai(Media) Specific Energy Consumption for Cement (kgce/tn) China(large, medium) Japan Shanghai % composite energy consumpkgoe/tonne China Shanghai % composite energy consumtion for per unit of crude Oil and a energy gyf factor(kgce/tn factor) China Shanghai %

6 Shanghai is in the middle of industrial transformation, with great uncertainty in future development of energy system and energy conservation potential: According to experiences of US and Europe, the elasticity of decrease in energy intensity to increase in income falls sharply as per capita income exceeds USD; and would converge to a constant level after USD Relationship between energy consumption per GDP and per capita GDP in USA 7 Relationship between energy consumption per GDP and GDP per capita in EU ic output energy consu umption per unit of econom y = x R² = GDP per capita ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

7 Energy Consumption (Unit: Mtoe) US Mode Baseline High- Growth Rate Mid- Growth Rate Low- Growth Rate Growth (%) Growth (%) Growth (%) % % % Prediction % % % % % % Euro Mode % % % Prediction % % % % % % Notes: High-growth : 12% growth in GDP per year; Mid-growth: 10% growth in GDP per year; Low-growth: 8% growth in GDP per year; 2%growth in population per year.

8 The Energy Intensity of Shanghai is Converging: In order to fulfill the 20% decrease target in energy intensity during the period of 12 th 5-year-, the increase in energy consumption should be lower than 40% in high growth scenario; lower than 28% in mid-growth scenario; and 17.5% in low-growth scenario. According to our simulation, European mode is consistent with the target only with high GDP growth; If the target be set at 15%, the upper-bound of energy consumption increase would be 49.7% in high-growth scenario; 36% in midgrowth scenario; and 24.9% in low-growth scenario. European mode is consistent with this target in any growth rate of GDP.

9 Total energy consumption decomposed by sector and by factor Sectors: Agriculture, industry, construction, commerce, transport and residence. Total energy consumption determined by industrial structure, sector scale, energy structure and efficiency of each sector Energy Consumption Fuel Structure Economic Output Industrial Structure Energy Efficiency Possession of Vehicles Transport Distancd Vehicle Energy Efficiency Population Income Residential Energy Efficiency

10 Reference scenario is set according to historical data: GDP yearly growth at 10%; portion of industrial output decrease to 40% in 2010, 35% in 2015, and 30% in Energy efficiency increase by 20% for every 5 years, same to that in the 11 th 5-year- period. Growth of transport sector was set according to historical data of Tokyo: possession of vehicle grow by 13% per year, and transport distance grow by 15%. Growth rate of population was set at 2%, according to historical data of Shanghai.

11 Energy Intensity could decrease by 22.67% during , 2015, and 16.85% in : 2020: Industrial structure and general energy efficiency should be increased greatly, so as to accomplish energy conservation and meanwhile maintain economic growth rate at 10%. Impact of higher vehicle possession and personal income make energy conservation more difficult Energy Consumption Fuel Structure Economic Output Industrial Structure Energy Efficiency Possession of Vehicles Transport Distancd Vehicle Energy Efficiency Population Income

12 Higher economic growth can lower energy intensity, which is consistent with the international experience that the higher per capita GDP is, the lower per GDP energy consumption would be. But expanding industry sector blindly is not a resolution. Shanghai needto develop the service industry, and deploy the four centers strategy, so as to stabilize and internalize the growth. Reference Scenario GDP Energy Consumption Energy Intensity Decrease Rate % % High-Growth Scenario % % Low-Growth Scenario % %

13 There are big discrepancies of carbon tax among different countries Denmark and Sweden are countries of high carbon tax rate; Germany is of middle level; UK and US are countries of low level tax rate US tax scheme Tax base Tax rate object Clinton Btu energy tax Fossil fuel, hydroelectricity and nuclear electricity 25.7cent/MBtu 34.2cent/MBtu(oil) Oil processing enterprises; coal and electricity end users and importers climate savers initiative Coal, oil, natural gas 10 dollar/tones co2 Manufacturing, importer act America s energy Coal, oil, natural gas 15dollar/tones co2,annual growth Manufacturing, importer security trust fund act rate 10% 4 Climate protection electricity 0.49cent/kwh(residential) 0.09cent/kwh(commercial) 09cent/kwh(commercial) 0.03cent/kwh(industrial) Electricity end user 5 Los Angeles air quality management co2 4.4 cent/tones co2 Industrial, commercial Eu tax scheme Denmark Germany German manufacturing Sweden Swedish manufacturing UK Light fuel oil ( Euro/thousand litre) Natural gas ( Euro/thousand cubic meter) electricity(euro/mwh) (residential) (residen tial)

14 Assessment on carbon tariff burden of China s energyintensive export products: 1.calculate total energy consumption and CO2 emission from energyintensive export production sectors. 2.Under the assumption that those countries would levy carbon tariff according to the rate and base of domestic carbon tax or energy tax, assess total tax those sectors should burden. 3.calculate total tariff those sectors should burden for export product according to the ratio of export to gross production. Data: four energy intensive sectors, account for 4% of total export revenue Smelting and pressing of Ferrous metals Non-mental minerals products Paper making and paper products Smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals

15 China s tariff burden of export energy-intensive products under different schemes unit:million dollar US PLAN1 US PLAN2 US PLAN3 US PLAN4 US PLAN5 Smelting and pressing of Ferrous metals , Non-mental minerals products Paper making and paper products Smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals total Smelting and pressing of Ferrous metals Denmark PLAN Germany Germany manufacturing Sweden Swedish manufacturing UK Non-mental minerals products Paper making and paper products Smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals total

16 12% Share in Export Va alue (%) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Smelting g and pressing of ferrous metals Non-mental minerals products US Plan 1 US Plan 2 US Plan 3 US Plan 4 US Plan 5 Paper making and paper 35% products Share in Expo ort Value (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% ΧSmelting and pressing of nonferrous metals 0% Denmark PLAN Germany Germany manufacturing Sweden Swedish manufacturing UK

17 USA s taxation/tariff burden of energy-intensive unit:million dollar US PLAN1 US PLAN2 US PLAN3 US PLAN4 US PLAN5 Paper , Nonmetallic Mineral Products Iron and Steel Mills Alumina and Aluminum Nonferrous Metals, except Aluminum Foundries Denmark PLAN Germany Germany manufacturing Sweden Swedish manufacturing UK Paper Nonmetallic Mineral Products Iron and Steel Mills Alumina and Aluminum Nonferrous Metals, except Aluminum Foundries

18 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 15% 10% 5% US Plan 1 US Plan 2 US Plan 3 US Plan 4 US Plan 5 Paper Nonmetallic Mineral Products Iron and Steel Mills Alumina and Aluminum Non ferrous Metals 0% Denmark PLAN Germany Germany manufacturing Sweden Swedish manufacturing UK Foundries

19 Jiading Basement: New Energy Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing Zhangjiang Basement: Thin Films Solar Cell Fabrication and R&D Center Minhang Basement: Power Generation e Equipment Manufacturing, including Nuclear Level Forging, IGCC turbine; Solar PV Industry Basement Lingang Basement: R&D and General Assembly of Nuclear/Conventional Island; Manufacturing and R&D Center for Large Scale Wind Power Equipment

20 Thank you very much for your attention!