From brainstorming to concrete policy: a foresight analysis applied to marine renewable energy in France

Transcription

1 From brainstorming to concrete policy: a foresight analysis applied to marine renewable energy in France 1. The frame of the study 2. The study : Method, scenarios, results 3. The key stakeholders and steps 4. Which lessons for foresight analysis? Denis LACROIX Directorate of scientific policy / Foresight analysis at Ifremer Presented to European Foresight Platform, Vienna workshop, Sept. 2012

2 1. THE FRAME OF THE STUDY 1. Increasing importance of the sea In modern issues: Climate, coastal areas, biodiversity 2. Objectives of the EU in 2020 : Minus 20% green house effect gas Minus 20% in consumption of fossil énergies 20% of energy mix from renewable energies 3. Request of decision-makers for tools for long term vision 4. Initiative of Ifremer President in 2007 : a collective study Moulin à marée de Birlot -île de Bréhat (Côtes d Armor)

3 1. THE FRAME OF THE STUDY Horizon : 2030 Field : France */ Europe / World Technologies : marine Method : scenarios * Including overseas territories Questions : Which technologies for renewable marine energies? Which social and economic conditions for their development and competitiveness? Which impacts of the technologies on marine environment? Which strategic partnerships to establish or to strenghten? Moulin à marée de Birlot -île de Bréhat (Côtes d Armor)

4 2. THE STUDY : METHODS Steering committee: 32 members (4 meeting /yr) (Ifremer, ministries, agencies, 6 companies, 6 organisations, Futuribles) Decides for the key parameters of the study, incl. scenarios Working group 22 members (10 meetings in 1 year) Prepares hypothesis, scenarios, recommendations

5 2. THE STUDY : THE SCENARIOS UP TO 2030 Scenario Criteria CRISIS COOPE -RATION RUN for YOURSELF LOCAL AUTONOMY Main factor MARKET Internat l WILL Nat l energy SECURITY Local devpt + risks Internat l Environ.t ENERGY EMERGENCY KYOTO 2 & extent PROTECTIO- NISM Tensions & Innovation Best technos WIND, TIDE ALL TECHNOS Independant devpt All notably Wind, Biomass, Thermic R&D TECHNO improvement All technos; Offshore & deep waters Mature technos Fragmented: all technos + new grids

6 2. THE STUDY : RESULTS In Tons Oil Equivalent : from 0,7 to 6,5 Million /yr In production : from 8 to 46 TWh/an) Assesment of technologies with equivalent scenarios Scenarios Technos Crisis Coope -ration Run for yourself Local devpt TOTAL STREAM 1, ,5 TIDE WAVE 1, ,5 7 BIOMASS WIND THERMAL OSMOTIC

7 2. A CONCRETE PROPOSAL FOR TODAY FOR FRANCE WIND (priority) : 16 parks x 50 units (5 MW) : 4000 Mw Thermal : 10 power plants (20 Mw) + 12 plants for cold (20 Mw) Stream : 5 parks x 80 turbines (1 Mw) : 400 Mw Tide : One «lagoon» type plant: 500 Mw Wave : 20 parks x 10 units (1 Mw) : 200 Mw Biomass : one plant : 0,05 Million TEO/Yr TOTAL Political target : 20 Million of Tons Equivalent Oil in 2020 Part of RME : 7,7% inclunding 5,5% from Wind energy

8 2. THREE PUBLICATIONS 2008 Paper in a Journal of foresight Futuribles (18 p.) 4000 s Synthesis For decision-makers (36 p.) 1000 s Book in French & in English (360 p.) 600 s.

9 3. THE KEY STEPS Year ACTOR Internat l Environt RME reports Industry Research Regional Bodies Fossil energies not sustainable + IPCC Nb of works. EU : 20% of RME in 2020 Studies & tests Studies & tests Studies on potential Think tanks State National global outlook on Envt Interest but no support Active support Key action

10 3. THE KEY STEPS ACTOR Internat l Environt RME reports Industry Research Regional Bodies Think tanks State Interest but no support World Conference of Copenhagen ICOE meeting in Brest Prototypes; Investments Foresight study of Ifremer Financing of projects Think tank Ipanema: Resear.+Ind+Reg+State Call for tests; speech of Pdt on sea politics Active support Key action

11 3. THE KEY STEPS ACTOR Internat l Environt RME reports New politics in RME: USA, China Nb of programmes on the medium term Industry Answers to calls; nb of consortia Research Multi-partners studies Regional Bodies Think Tanks State Commitment in R&D and in answers Nb of Priv/Publ Partnerships First call for 5 wind parks for 3000 Mw Interest but no support Active support Key action

12 3. THE KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND STEPS 2011 : CALL of the French government For 5 sites along the Atlantic coast : Selection of 4 groups Total power : 2000 Mw Production : 6800 Mwh Cost : /Mwh (to be paid by consumers) (Base: 66 ) Jobs : 6000 (on 10 years)

13 3. THE KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND STEPS: Position of France in Europe (RME)

14 4. WHICH LESSONS FOR FORESIGHT ANALYSIS? ACTOR Internat l Environt RME reports Industry Research Regional Bodies Think tanks Nb of works STUDIES & tests STUDIES & tests FORESIGHT study FINANCING of projects THINK TANK Ipanema: State Pdt speech on SEA POLITICS FIRST CALL

15 4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION WILL (Politics) * Know ledge Financing power * In relation with social acceptability

16 4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION WILL (Politics) * Know ledge Synergizers (Think tank, Cluster ) Financing power Foresight analysis capacity: collective, relevant, patient, proactive * In relation with social acceptability

17 4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION WILL WILL (Politics) (Politics) * * Synergizers (Think tank, Cluster ) Know ledge A NEW SHAPE Financing power Know ledge Financing power Foresight analysis capacity: collective, relevant, patient, proactive * In relation with social acceptability

18 4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION WILL WILL (Politics) Time (Politics) * * Projects, Applications Synergizers (Think tank, Cluster ) Know ledge Financing power Know ledge Financing power Foresight analysis capacity: collective, relevant, patient, proactive * In relation with social acceptability

19 Thanks to Ademe, CEA, DCNS, Ecole centrale de Nantes, Ecrin, EDF, Groupe Futuribles, LEGI, Météo France, MEEDDAT, MESR, Saipem, SG Mer, Technip, Total, Veolia Michel Paillard (head of the project), Véronique Lamblin (In charge of the methodology in the foresight analysis). O. Barbaroux*, JP Cadoret*, J Carbonne (Cefrem), Deme Be, Dong Energy Dk, ECN, EDF, Geo, D. Lacroix*, Pelamis wave power, Saipem, for pictures and figures * lfremer