BECC Rodrigo Lagreca HomeCarbon CEO, MSc

Transcription

1 BECC 2017 Gathering learnings from a behavioral methodology aimed at Rio de Janeiro low income communities with high incidence of energy commercial losses Rodrigo Lagreca HomeCarbon CEO, MSc

2 Preamble In 2015, Brazil s commercial losses amounted circa 5% of the energy injected into the grids; Comercial losses in Brazil are the main challenge for utilities.

3 Preamble Local utility (Greater Rio de Janeiro area), estimates that of its 4.2 million customers, about 1.75 million (41,7%) steal energy from the grids. If all these thefts were eliminated, the electricity rates could be up to 17% lower.

4 Preamble Up to 1990 s: electricity was provided only by public utilities: Culture: energy can be (should be?) for free; Low income population concentrated in/and slums (favelas); Lack of public assistance and care; Rising presence of criminal gangs and armed groups, competing for power and control; Socioeconomic stress embedding local environment.

5 Challenges For Utility To tackle comercial losses: delinquency + frauds; For customers To adapt to regularity and being able to pay the bills.

6 Preamble Brazilian seasonality: annual residential energy consumption features the profile below:

7 Program Design Program provided real time feedback and training as ways to engage customers towards a more efficient consumption behavior along with other services technical and commercial support.

8 Insights 240,00 Evolution of Consumption between August 2015 and May 2016 Monthly average of Kwh 230,00 220,00 210,00 200,00 190,00 180,00 170,00 160,00 150,00 10% SIMULATED NON SIMULATED 140,00 aug/15 sep/15 oct/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 feb/16 mar/16 apr/16 may/16 Month Exponencial (SIMULATED) Exponencial (NON SIMULATED) May/15 jun/15 jul/15 aug/15 sep/15 oct/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 feb/16 mar/16 apr/16 may/16 SIMULATED 172,92 174,38 171,95 179,32 179,13 192,59 194,94 196,26 215,27 198,24 209,78 215,72 181,10 NON SIMULATED 166,33 174,83 165,67 168,92 163,23 178,40 197,32 190,89 230,35 204,04 218,77 207,29 192,33

9 Insights State of Rio de Janeiro Electricity in the grid (MWh) RJ Exponencial (RJ) Month may/15 jun/15 jul/15 aug/15 sep/15 oct/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 feb/16 mar/16 apr/16 may/16 RJ Consumption of electricity in the grid (MWh)

10 Assessing Data Intervention month: July 2015 Apex of Brazilian consumption: January 2015 Month may/15 jun/15 jul/15 aug/15 sep/15 oct/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 feb/16 mar/16 apr/16 may/16 SIMULATED NON SIMULATED Monthly Average of consumption 172,92 174,38 171,95 179,32 179,13 192,59 194,94 196,26 215,27 198,24 209,78 215,72 181,10 166,33 174,83 165,67 168,92 163,23 178,40 197,32 190,89 230,35 204,04 218,77 207,29 192,33 SIMULATED NON SIMULATED Variation (MoM) 0,8% -1,4% 4,3% -0,1% 7,5% 1,2% 0,7% 9,7% -7,9% 5,8% 2,8% -16,0% 5,1% -5,2% 2,0% -3,4% 9,3% 10,6% -3,3% 20,7% -11,4% 7,2% -5,3% -7,2%

11 Assessing Data Monthly % in Energy Consumption Jun/2015 to May/ ,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% -20,0% jun/15 jul/15 ago/15 set/15 out/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 fev/16 mar/16 abr/16 mai/16 SIMULATED NON SIMULATED RJ 10% Correlation: State with Simulated 0, Correlation: State with Non Simulated 0,78063

12 Findings Inserir título da By comparing the two groups, we could sense the treated group as more resilient in preventing their consumption to rise when exposed to seasonality raising trend; apresentação The non treated group, in the other hand, increased its consumption over the seasonality curve in the peak months. The conclusion is using real time feedback techs over consumption behavior may be considered efficient, face to several idiosyncrasies involved. Moreover, further specific studies should be addressed aimed to better structure how savings can be obtained.

13 References ABRADEE Associação Brasileira de Distribuidores de Energia. Furto e Fraude de Energia. Avaiable in: Access in october (Brazilian Association of Energy Distributors. Theft and Energy Fraud). ANEEL Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica. Perdas de Energia. Avaiable in: > Tarifas > Cálculo Tarifário e Metodologia > Distribuição > Perdas de Energia. Access in october (National Electric Energy Agency. Loss of energy) Instituto Acende Brasil - Perdas comerciais e inadimplência no setor elétrico. Avaiable in: Brasil_18_PerdasInadimplencias.pdf. Access in october (Acende Brasil Institute - Commercial losses and default in the electrical sector). Instituto Trata Brasil Situação Saneamento no Brasil. Avaiable in: Access in april (Trata Brasil Institute Situation of the Basic Sanitation in Brazil). Instituto Trata Brasil Perdas de Água: Desafios ao Avanço do Saneamento Básico e à Escassez Hídrica. Avaiable in: Access in april (Trata Brasil Institute Water Losses: Challenges to the Advancement of Basic Sanitation and Water Scarcity).

14 Acknowledgment Aline Fiusa - Psychologist Ana Paula Zillig Environmental Manager Ana Carolina Boyadjian - Economist

15 Contacts Rodrigo Lagreca - rodrigo@homecarbon.com.br Rua Dona Elisa 02, casa 01 Barra Funda, São Paulo-SP