Scenarios of future land use and implica2ons for soil ecosystem services

Transcription

1 Scenarios of future land use and implica2ons for soil ecosystem services Stefan Hotes 1,2 & Volkmar Wolters 2 Philipps- University Marburg Justus- Liebig- University Giessen Germany

2 Outline Scenario exercises concerning land use in the EU Scenario projec2ons Land use types Land use intensity Ecosystem func2ons Links between land use parameters and soil biota Land use types Land use intensity Spa2al and temporal variability Comparing policy op2ons Conclusions

3 Scenario approaches Source: EURURALIS factsheet How might land use change in the future, given certain assump2ons about drivers? How will these changes affect biodiversity, ecosystem func2ons and ecosystem services? Policies CAP RED Natura2 WTO Prices Produc'on factors Commodi'es Land Popula-on Demography Consump'on Income Climate change Land use Abandonment Sustainable use Overexploita2on

4 Scenario exercises ATEAM, ACCELERATES, ALARM, PRELUDE, EURURALIS, Scenar22 etc. Storylines SRES- IPCC: global vs. regional market vs. environment EU policy: Baseline Regionalisa2on Liberalisa2on Models Input data Global: IMAGE, GTAP, GDF, GINFORS; LPJ- GUESS, LEITAP Regional: EASDF, MOLUSC, ESIM, CAPRI Land use: LLN- LCM, CLUE- s Land use, land cover: PELCOM, CORINE Output Land use change at different spa2al levels Effects on environmental variables, e.g. carbon balance

5 Scenario projec2ons Change of cropland area

6 Spa2al pa[erns - Scenar22 Arable land change [%] 2 to 22 Baseline Regionalisa2on Liberalisa2on 2-2 DK 2 SE FI LV EE PT IE 2 ES UK BE/LU FR NL DE 2 AT IT CZ SI HU PL RO SK GR BG LT MT CY

7 Temporal dynamics Land cover change 2-26 (%) CORINE data (EEA 21) Globaliza-on: Area Intensity Regionaliza-on + Markets: Area Intensity Regionaliza-on + Conserva-on: Area Intensity EURURALIS Schulp et al. 28

8 Land use intensity 2 23 Land use type Land use intensity (nitrogen input) Southeast Spain EURURALIS Temme & Verburg 211

9 Regional carbon balances Net carbon mission/ sequestra2on from 16 land use types Sums 2 23 [t C / km 2 ] SRES scenarios HARM2 regions Based on emission factors Emission Sequestra2on EURURALIS Schulp et al. 28

10 Land use types and soil biota Trends diversity and abundance for land use type transi2ons To From Forest Pasture Arable Urban Forest Pasture Arable Urban Problem: Land cover classifica2on too broad Response of soil biota & related ecosystem func2ons depends on condi2ons not captured by remote sensing data (CORINE, PELCOM)

11 Land use intensity and soil biota Abundance & diversity Abundance & diversity of soil biota generally decline with increasing land use intensity, but Variability in space and 2me is high! Nevertheless, responses of soil biota to intensifica2on are similar across SOILSERVICE study sites Land use intensity

12 EU policies, land use change & soil biota CAP post 213 proposals Scenarios Adjustment Integra2on Re- focus Differences in impact on land- use: Land- sharing vs. land- sparing Moderate land use change Greening of Pillar 1 effects on soils: Green cover: posi2ve Rota2on rules: weak effect Permanent grassland: posi2ve Ecological focus areas 7%: posi2ve Natura2: no addi2onal effect Renewable energy direc2ve Es2mates of land requirements differ (e.g. Scenar 22 and IEEP report) Impact on soil biota & soil func2oning depends strongly on crop type and management prac2ce

13 Conclusions Most scenario exercises have produced projec2ons of changes in broad land use / land cover (spa2al resolu2on reaches 1 km 2 ) Data on land management are either patchy or aggregated for regions (NUTS, HARM) Data on soil biota are much more patchy Results from SOILSERVCE suggest that rela2onships between land management and soil biota / soil ecosystem func2ons are similar across regions Combining more extensive data sets (LUCAS) with SOILSERVICE results and improved es2mates of changes in land use intensity should produce more accurate es2mates land use change effects