City Applications. Modeling Needs & Integrated Modeling. Dr. Sarath Guttikunda New Delhi, India

Transcription

1 City Applications Modeling Needs & Integrated Modeling air pollut tion Dr. Sarath Guttikunda New Delhi, India Affiliate Asst. Professor Desert Research Institute, te Reno, USA WMO/GURME, Pune, India December 9 th, 2008 time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs

2 Topics Covered Overview of Information required and available for an AQM Demonstration of tools Summary of applications Details from three cities Hyderabad, Ulaanbaatar, Hanoi

3 Cinderella's Shoe.. Every city is different Understand their sources & priorities One tool doesn t fit all Needs local customization Need stakeholders participation (a lot) Sharing is caring!! Informed decision making is key

4 Why AQM

5 Concept of Integration Tropospheric ozone, aerosols, greenhouse gases acid rain Toxics, chemical pollutants soil erosion groundwater contamination industrial wastes urban air pollution agricultural runoff surface water pollution agricultural pesticides vector-borne disease indoor air pollution A. Acharya

6 Let the Blame Games begin.. Sources are Many.. making a decision is a decision

7 Why informed decision making is important? Stakeholders that are part of the process are more accepting of a scientifically determined outcome More scientifically rigorous leads to more effective outcomes and easier monitoring of progress Prioritizes costeffective measures Easier to implement - because the Easier to implement - because the systematic approach helps us identify exactly what is needed, and how much

8 Remember.... Waiting is futile.. Check what s done.. Start doing something

9 Number of Cities Google Earth

10 Delhi NH 1 NH 10 NH 24 Gaziabad abad Inner Ring road India Gate CP Noida NH 8 NH 2 Gurgaon Source: Reproduced from Presentations by TheTIS & Harvard University Faridabad

11 Delhi NH 1 NH 10 NH 24 Gaziabad abad Outer Ring road Inner Ring road India Gate CP Noida NH 8 NH 2 Gurgaon Source: Reproduced from Presentations by TheTIS & Harvard University Faridabad

12 Delhi.. Today.. NCR NH 1 NH 10 Outer Ring road Inner Ring road CP India Gate NH 24 Ghaziabad Noida NH 8 NH 2 Gurgaon Faridabad Source: Reproduced from Presentations by TheTIS & Harvard University

13 300 cities >2 m pop by thousands of Secondary Cities Health, Visibility, Agriculture, Economy Source: Google Earth &

14 Cities: A Problem & Solution Energy Demand Industries Waste Transport Domestic 3 D s Renewables Efficiency Management Buses/NMT Cleaner Fuels

15 3 D Effect G I Dispe ersion Mod deling D Dialogue among Stakeholders N A S E E Disclaimer: All characters are fictional

16 air pollution is increasing in the cities tion r pollut air time now

17 .. and expected to further increase some controls are introduced tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs

18 .. and expected to further increase.. or no action tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs

19 cost of inaction tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs

20 acting sooner with informed decision making environmental, social, & economic benefits tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs

21 benefits will depend on the baseline environmental, social, & economic benefits tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs

22 goal is to reduce below standards, cost effectively & fast.. and maximize benefits air pollut tion.. an informed analysis and dialogue will help. time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs

23 Small steps.. monitoring hot spots institutional stakeholders apportionment policy options Information Analysis Options data collection emissions technical 1 2 dispersion 3 economic 4 impacts impacts Dialogue cost & benefits prioritization.. for BIG reductions

24 Simple Interactive Models Air Quality Sources Impacts Policy Options SIM-air Technical Options Economic Options

25 Simple objectives.. Collate first, complicate later Apply tools for analysis Evaluate C&B of options Support stakeholder dialogue

26 Lat Total sulfur depositions - Year Lon mg(s) / m2 / yr No. of Vehicles 4,500, ,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 MotorCycle Car Van TukTuk Truck Taxi HeavyDuty Bus Road Network Administrative Point Sources 70 Statistics, Remote Sensing, GIS, Databases APHEBA ISC3 UAM ATMOS CMAQ WARF HYSPLIT RAMS/MM5 Models Knowledge Base Analysis Monitoring Stakeholders Reports Environmental Agencies

27 GAINS/RAINS ac at/~rains

28 SEI Emissions Handbook

29 HEAT Emissions

30 Bangkok, Thailand, 2008 Average Speed Average Speed Average Speed Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Buses Heavy Duty Trucks HC CO NOx CO PM Pre Pre HC CO NOx CO PM HC CO NOx CO PM HC CO NOx CO PM after after Pre after

31 CPCB, India, 2008

32 Average EF s in VAPIS Gasoline Diesel CNG 2Ws 3Ws Cars Cars LDV HDT Bus 3Ws Cars LDV Bus PM PM SO NO x CO CO HC VAPIS: Vehicular Air Pollution Information

33 SIM-air Working Paper Series In Creating GIS Road Maps for Urban Centers 02. Four Simple Equations for Vehicular Emissions Inventory 03. Informed Decision Support for AQM in Developing Cities 04. Simple & Interactive Tools for Air Pollution Analysis 05. Urban Air Pollution Analysis in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 06. Estimating Health Impacts of Urban Air Pollution 07. Estimating Road Dust Emissions: Methods & Parameters 08. Co-Benefits: Management Options for Local Pollution & GHG Emission Control 09. Air Pollution & Co-Benefits Analysis for Hyderabad, India 10. What is Particulate Matter: Composition & Science 11. Urban Transport in India: Not so Fast for Nano Car

34 SIM Health

35 SIM-air Cities 2008 Ouagadougou Lagos Cotonou Ulaanbaatar Beijing Kathmandu Shanghai Delhi Dhaka Pune Hanoi Hyderabad Bangkok Jakarta Antananarivo Santiago

36 SIM-air Cities Case Studies

37 Pune, India, Times of India, July 25 th, 2008

38 City Applications

39 Hyderabad, India

40 Transport vs. Air Quality Annual Vehicular Population (in 10,000s) Annual Average PM 10 Concentrations (μg/m 3 ) Total Vehicles; 2002 = 14.5 L; 2006 = 18.0 L; 2007 = 20.0 L

41 Hyderabad Urban Development Area industrial areas municipal bdy HCU PG CKP Hyderabad

42 Source Apportionment Study Three seasons in Three sites (PG, CKP, HCU) Airmetrics MiniVol samplers 24-hour sampling periods Filters PM 10 and PM 2.5 Teflon/quartz fiber filters E Averages A 17% 24% PM 10 ranged 59 to 160 μg/m 3 D PM 2.5 ranged 26 to 86 μg/m 3 14% B 17% Measurement Sample Source Profiles C 28% Source Apportionment Receptor Model: CMB 8.2 Detailed

43 CMB Results: Average Sectoral Contributions Sec-PM 8% VegB 5% Indus 6% Road Dust 33% VegB 8% Indus 18% Road Dust 10% Veh 48% PM10 PM2.5 Sec-PM 15% Veh 49%

44 Emission Inventory (yr 2006) Category PM 10 SO 2 NO x CO 2 Vehicular activity 8,410 6,304 38,772 6,260,099 Paved road dust 3,422 Unpaved road dust 5,110 Industry 11,054 7,110 7, ,486 Domestic 1, ,485 Open Waste Burning 810 Total 30,473 14,081 47,152 7,260,070 in tons/yr Detailed

45 Modeled Annual Average PM μg/m HCU PG CKP

46 % Estimated Contribution of Sectors Vehicles Road Dust % % HCU PG CKP HCU PG CKP Industries BB & Domestic % % HCU 20 PG CKP HCU PG CKP

47 Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Location Vehicles Veh+RD Industry Dom+OWB SA M SA M SA M SA M Punjagutta 54 ± ± ± ± Chikkadpally 45 ± ± ± ± HCU 43 ± ± ± ± SA = top-down = source apportionment M = bottom-up = modeled Detailed

48 Action Plan for Air Pollution Reduction Co-Benefits Analysis

49 Hyderabad: Proposed Action Plan Road maintenance LPG for 3 W s Public transportt New emissions standards Phase-out for old 2 W s, 3 W s, & Cars Industrial energy efficiency Garbage management

50 Co-Benefits for 2020 Estimated Overall Percent Reductions Intervention PM 10 (%) CO 2 (%) 100% buses to CNG Public transport Wet & vacuum sweeping 6.9 I & M Abolish diesel gen sets & biomass Control illegal l garbage burning Coal use in domestic sector Detailed

51 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 2007

52 AQM Ulaanbaatar National AQ Council (with MNE) AQM Bureau Sec. of AQM Bureau Specialized Organizations AQ Division i i of UB AQ Divisions for Provinces CLEM Monitoring Ozone ICC Inst. Of Meteorology and Hydrology

53 Dispersion in Winter

54 In Migration of Population

55 Stoves: cooking & heating

56 fly ash from power plants

57 Garbage Burning

58 Brick Industry

59 Fugitive Dust May 7 th 2007

60 Traffic (image from google earth)

61 Fugitive Dust from Vehicles

62 = Cooking & Heating ,000 70,000 60,000 50, Total Number of Households in Ulaanbaatar 385, , % Growth Rate Households 315, , , , , , ,000 70,000 35, % 40% Total Vehicles Growth Rate 30% 40,000 30,000 20,000 Transport, 20% A Growing 10% 0% ,000 0 Sector -10%

63 PM Emissions (2006) 10 HoB 16% UPRD 7% UNK 8% Brick 3% OB 4% PP 34% HH Stoves 23% Other 13% PRD 2% HWB 0% Veh Kiosks 2% 1% Estimated t d@985kt 98.5 ktons (annual) Detailed

64 Modeled PM 10 Concentrations

65 Plan of Action Monitoring Clean coal for domestic sector **** Heating only boilers to central heating New combustion technologies for PP s ESP s for PP s & larger industries Fly ash control to brick making Energy efficiency at brick & cement

66 Briquette Technology

67 Hanoi, Vietnam 2008

68 Hanoi, Vietnam

69 In City Pollution Sources Non-Transport ~ a large industry ~ domestic ~ coal mining ~ & related transportt ~ power plant

70 In City Pollution Sources Transport ~1.6 million in 2006 ~ 90% are motorcycles ~ Dust levels are high ~ Cars are increasingi ~ low public transport

71 Passive Samplers NO x & SO 2 Averages are ~2 times the standards

72 Source Apportionment for PM Hanoi 30 Apr 03, 10 Oct 04 4 Day Back Trajectories (every 4hr) UlaanBaatar Beijing Sado Is. Secondary 10% Marine 8% Transport 5% Soil Dust 4% Latitude Apr03 Cheju Is. 10Oct Hanoi Hong Kong Sites 300m 15 Manila 500m Longitude Local Burning 28% PM 2.5 Long Range Trans 45% Cohen et al., 2006 using back trajectories; Hien et al., 2004 using receptor modeling

73 PM Emissions (2005) 10 PRD 13% UPRD 13% Garb-B 8% Ind-Inc 1% Bricks 8% other pollutants Veh 18% Ind 29% Kiosks 5% PM10 HH 5% Hosp-W 0% 23.5 ktons (annual) NO x, SO 2, & CO 2 Guttikunda & SVCAP, 2008

74 Modeled PM 10 Concentrations μg/m PM2.5 PM10 TSP 3 9 La atitude mg/m Longitude

75 % Estimated Contribution of Sectors Vehicles Road Dust % % Latitude Latitude Longitude Longitude Ind - Bi Bricks BB & Domestic % % Latitude Latitude Longitude Longitude

76 Hanoi: AQM Plan 2020 Road maintenance Mass transport road & rail New emissions i standards d for 2W s & cars Industrial zoning & energy efficiency ESP s for larger industries Alternative fuels for domestic Landfill management Guttikunda & SVCAP, 2008

77 Challenges ahead.. What goes in.. Comes out Tools are plenty Need more collaborative action Informed decision making is key To join SIM-air mailing list, send to

78 Thank you Dr. Sarath at December 2008