THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED RES COST REDUCTIONS ANANALYSIS WITH A MIDEUROPEAN TIMES ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS MODEL

Transcription

1 THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED RES COST REDUCTIONS ANANALYSIS WITH A MIDEUROPEAN TIMES ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS MODEL Fabian P. Gotzens, M.Sc. PhD candidate 71 st semi-annual IEA-ETSAP Workshop, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA July,10 th 2017

2 Contents Motivation Methodology TIMES: European Electricity System Model Power Plant Matching Tool Scenario Definitions Results Conclusions and Outlook July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 2

3 Motivation Tremendous drop in investment costs for RES in recent years The International Energy Agency (IRENA) released a report 1 in 2016 THE POWER TO CHANGE: SOLAR AND WIND COST REDUCTION POTENTIAL TO Suitable showcase to demonstrate the effects of variation of input parameters on the results of a long-term electricity system model 1 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 3

4 Model Overview Technical Parameters - Power plant database (technologies, fuels, efficiencies decommission pathways, ) - Storage capacities - RES geographical potentials - RES temporal availability factors - Cross-border transmission capacities (NTC*) - CO 2 emission factors - Demands per country *NTC = Net Transfer Capacities European Electricity TIMES Model Paradigm LP capacity expansion model Regions 20 European countries Years Resolution 4 seasons, 2 weekdays, 24 hours = 192 time slices p.a. Economical Parameters - Fuel Prices - CO 2 Prices - Technology investment costs - Fixed + variable operations and maintanance costs - Discount rate Policy Parameters - CO 2 reduction targets - RES expansion goals July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 4

5 Challenges of Power Plant Databases No single database exists that is all-encompassing + fully covering European geographical scope free (costs and license) updated regularly Database Supplier No. units Gigawatts Matched Database Carbon Monitoring for Action European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity DOE Energy Storage Exchange Global Energy Observatory Open Power Systems Database World Electric Power Plants DB World Resources Institute Power Plant Matching Toolset In cooperation with: J. Hörsch / F. Hofmann July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 5

6 Challenges of Power Plant Databases Good fit of matched DBs with statistics, but still room for improvement. July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 6

7 PRC_RESID: Decommissiong Pathway Fueltype (Technology) Life [a] Hard Coal and Lignite 35 Natural Gas (OCGT/CCGT) Natural Gas (Steam Turbines) Oil 20 Nuclear 50 Waste 25 Bioenergy 25 CAES 40 Hydro (Pumped & Reservoir) Hydro (Run-of-River) Wind (Onshore) 25 Wind (Offshore) 30 Photovoltaics & CSP 25 Others 5 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 7

8 Model Overview Technical Parameters - Power plant database (technologies, fuels, efficiencies decommission pathways, ) - Storage capacities - RES geographical potentials - RES temporal availability factors - Cross-border transmission capacities (NTC*) - CO 2 emission factors - Demands per country *NTC = Net Transfer Capacities European Electricity TIMES Model Paradigm LP capacity expansion model Regions 20 European countries Years Resolution 4 seasons, 2 weekdays, 24 hours = 192 time slices p.a. Economical Parameters - Fuel Prices - CO 2 Prices - Technology investment costs - Fixed + variable operations and maintanance costs - Discount rate Policy Parameters - CO 2 reduction targets - RES expansion goals July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 8

9 CAP_BND: RES Geographical Potentials Wind Power Potentials in Europe [GW] AT BE CH CZ DE DK ES FR GB HU IE IT LU NL NO PL PT SE SI SK Geothermal PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar Thermal July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 9

10 Modelled Scenarios Reference Scenario Constant investment costs from 2015 Δ (IRENA-Reference) Δ (Extended-Reference) IRENA Scenario Decreasing investment costs between 2015 and 2025 according to IRENA Comparison Extended Scenario Further decrease between 2025 and 2050 Geometric trend for extrapolation Δ (Extended-IRENA) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 10

11 INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST: Investment Costs in Scenarios Solar PV Wind onshore 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1, Solar CSP Wind offshore 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 11

12 Reference Scenario Europe s electricity mix remains diverse Nuclear remains major source of power On- and offshore wind gain importance Hard coal and lignite lose importance Very little solar PV generation Electricity trades increase steadily Specific emissions Due to expected increase in CO 2 prices downward trend Some countries quicker, others slower In 2050, Europe s installed capacities will be dominated by Renewables incl. Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Investments in Europe mostly dominated by Nuclear Power Hydro Natural Gas increasingly Wind (on+offshore) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 12

13 Reference Scenario Europe s electricity mix remains diverse Nuclear remains major source of power On- and offshore wind gain importance Hard coal and lignite lose importance Very little solar PV generation Electricity trades increase steadily Specific emissions Due to expected increase in CO 2 prices downward trend Some countries quicker, others slower In 2050, Europe s installed capacities will be dominated by Renewables incl. Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Investments in Europe mostly dominated by Nuclear Power Hydro Natural Gas increasingly Wind (on+offshore) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 13

14 Reference Scenario Europe s electricity mix remains diverse Nuclear remains major source of power On- and offshore wind gain importance Hard coal and lignite lose importance Very little solar PV generation Electricity trades increase steadily Specific emissions Due to expected increase in CO 2 prices downward trend Some countries quicker, others slower In 2050, Europe s installed capacities will be dominated by Renewables incl. Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Investments in Europe mostly dominated by Nuclear Power Hydro Natural Gas increasingly Wind (on+offshore) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 14

15 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 15

16 countrywise delta-diagram here (either cap or gen) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 16

17 countrywise delta-diagram here (either cap or gen) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 17

18 Cross-border Electricity Exchanges Electricity trades rise in an increasingly connected Europe July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 18

19 Hourly Resolution Intratemporal resolution works and shows reasonable behavior of exports and pumped hydro usage, but the peaking utilization of solar PV in specific representative days needs to be further investigated. July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 19

20 Conclusions and Outlook Preliminary Results Under current assumptions the model shows plausible results, i.e. an expected decrease of investment costs for RES by IRENA until 2025 makes investment into RES, especially solar PV in European countries way more attractive than it was in a further extrapolated decrease until 2050 makes it even more attractive, but does not have significant influences on the model outcome. However, there s still work to do! Next Steps Calibration of the European electricity system model such that model meets 2015 country statistics Addition of East-European regions: FI, EE, LV, LT, BG, RO, GR etc. Feed-In tariffs for RES per country Future technologies and efficiency increases Stochastics for wind power More sophisticated storage integration Any kind advice is highly appreciated July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 20

21 THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED RES COST REDUCTIONS ANANALYSIS WITH A MIDEUROPEAN TIMES ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS MODEL Fabian P. Gotzens, M.Sc. PhD candidate 71 st semi-annual IEA-ETSAP Workshop, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA July,10 th 2017

22 Appendix

23 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 23

24 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 24

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26 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 26

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29 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 29

30 Price [ 2008 / GJ] Price [ 2008 / GJ] Price [ 2008 / t CO 2 -equ.] Price [ 2008 / GJ] Fuel and CO 2 Price Developments Price CO 2 Certificates Price Crude Oil Reference 60 strong 40 weak 20 Reference strong weak Price Natural Gas Price Coal Reference 60 strong 40 weak 20 Reference strong weak 0 0 July 10, Fabian 2025 Gotzens 2030 f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy 2010 and Climate Research 2025 (STE), 2030 FZ Juelich, 2035 Germany

31 Demands per Country July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 31

32 Matching Example ID Name Fueltype Classification Country Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Hydro nan Switzerland Abbey mills pumping Oil nan United Kingdom Abertay Other nan United Kingdom Aberthaw Coal nan United Kingdom Ablass Wind nan Germany Abono Coal nan Spain ID Name Fueltype Classification Country Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Hydro nan Switzerland Aberthaw Coal Thermal United Kingdom Abono Coal Thermal Spain Abwinden asten Hydro nan Austria Aceca Oil CHP Spain Aceca fenosa Natural Gas CCGT Spain Dataset 1 Dataset 2 Country Fueltype Classification Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Aarberg Switzerland Hydro nan Aberthaw Aberthaw United Kingdom Coal Thermal July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 32 2 Abono Abono Spain Coal Thermal

33 Principle and Matching Excerpt Relies on java library, specialized for deduplicating and linking data string comparison (name, fueltype) Computes a score for each row numerical comparison (capacity) geoposition comparison (lat, lon) Criteria: Country must be equal Row scores of at least two databases must exceed given threshold CARMA ENTSOE ESE GEO OPSD WEPP WRI Fueltype Technology Country Year lat lon Capacity Anapo Anapo Anapo c.le solarino Anapo Anapo c.le Anapo Anapo c.le Hydro Pumped Storage Italy , , , Altenworth Altenwörth Altenwoerth Altenwörth Altenworth Altenwörth Hydro Run-Of-River Austria , , , Arcos Arcos iberdrola Arcos frontera Arcos frontera Arcos Arcos frontera Natural Gas CCGT, CCGT, Spain , , Eemscentrale Eems Eem ec Eems ec Eems ec Eemscentrale Natural Gas OCGT Netherlands , , ,7 Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Nuclear Steam Turbine Slovakia , , Krsko Krsko reactor Krško Krsko Krsko Nuclear Steam Turbine Slovenia , , Itoiz Pie presa itoiz Itoiz Central pie presa itoiz Hydro Reservoir Spain , Thermische abfallbehandlu ng lauta gmbh & co. ohg Lauta thermische Waste Steam Turbine Germany , , Rdk karlsruhe July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Karlsruhe rdk f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de and Rdk karlsruhe Institute of Energy Hard and Climate Coal Steam Research Turbine (STE), FZ Germany Juelich, Germany ,0131 8, Esch alzette Esch sur alzette luxembourg Natural Gas CCGT Luxembourg 49,5119 5,

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35 Comparison of the Matching Process July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 35