SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION
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1 SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION The Society gratefully acknowledges those companies that support the program by allowing their professionals to participate as Lecturers. And special thanks to The American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers (AIME) for their contribution to the program.
2 LNG Roaring Ahead Where Will it End? John Morgan John M. Campbell & Company Exclusive Provider of PetroSkills Facilities Training Headquarters Office 1215 Crossroads Blvd., Norman, OK USA (405) Office / (405) Fax / (303) Cell djm@jmcampbell.com / John M. Campbell & Co. and Other Copyright Holders All Rights Reserved
3 2005 Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. All Rights Reserved
4 $7 Billion Entry Fee
5 2008 ConocoPhillips Used With Permission All Rights Reserved
6 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) 1. Allows gas to be sold from remote suppliers Indonesia, Middle East, Australia, Algeria, etc. to industrialized countries, Japan, Korea, Spain, UK and USA 2. The largest producer of LNG is Qatar. 3. Was Indonesia but gas reserves depleted 4. The largest market for LNG is Japan 5. International trade in 2007 was ~165mtpy (Equivalent to 217BCMa)
7 WHAT IS LNG 96% Methane 3% Ethane 1% 0.1% Propane Butane Pentane + LPG NGL LNG LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas NGL Natural Gas Liquids LNG Liquid Natural Gas
8
9 Example LNG Properties -162 o C [-235 o F] at atmospheric pressure Rich Lean nitrogen methane ethane propane butanes approx. kg/m CV (higher) MJ/m
10 2004 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission An LNG Export Terminal with Multiple Expansions - Bontang, Indonesia
11 The Basic LNG Chain Gas Production LNG Production Shipping LNG Reception Gas Utilization
12 Common Engineering Units scf is the volume of gas at 14.7psi and 60 o F scm is the volume of gas at 101.3kPa and 15 o C 1MMscfd is 1,000,000scf/day 1m 3 = 35.3ft 3 Density of water = 1000kg/m 3 Molecular weight of air is 29 (28.97) Power 0.746kW = 1HP 1Btu is the energy required to raise the temperature of 1 lb water 1 o F 1Btu = 1.055kJ
13 Natural Gas Transportation Options Pipeline LNG MMscfd Gas-to-liquids 50 Electricity Uneconomic Distance to market, km
14 Nominal Gas Transportation Efficiency
15 Historical Development of LNG Trade Last 25 Years Projects grow from less than 1 mtpa to 4-6 mtpa New supplies to Japan, first imports to Korea, 1987, and Taiwan, 1990 Late 1990s present Slower growth in Asian LNG demand economic upsets Growth in LNG demand in Europe, USA and Caribbean New supply projects in Atlantic Basin and Middle East Today s LNG trade
16 LNG Industry Growth Historical Projected 5.5%/yr Source: CERA, CEDIGAZ
17 2005 Source NPC Demand is Met from Diverse Sources of Supply
18 LNG Imports Are Needed, but Face Obstacles 2005 Source NPC
19 The Basic LNG Chain Gas Production LNG Production Shipping LNG Reception Gas Utilization
20 The Contract Chain 1. Exploration licenses, production-sharing contracts 2. Gas sales to LNG Producer 3. LNG production joint venture agreement 4. Condensate/LPG production and sale 5. Government and local authority agreements 6. LNG sale and purchase agreement between LNG producer and LNG buyers
21 Gas Production Platform North Rankin A North-West Shelf Project, Australia 2005 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission
22 The Basic LNG Chain Gas Production LNG Production Shipping LNG Reception Gas Utilization
23 General Schematic Gas Liquefaction Terminal Pre-cooling and LPG Separation 2005 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission
24
25 Contaminants What s in gas (besides light hydrocarbons)? H 2 O CO 2 H 2 S S He N 2 Cl Hg As Waxes Asphaltenes etc. Sand Dinosaur Dust Lubricants Corrosion Inhibitors Mystery Stuff, etc.
26 Some Mercury Levels Worldwide microgm/m3 Mercury kg/a South America Far East Far East ,042 Far East Groningen Mid West P/L Based on 4mtpy LNG production (600MMscfd)
27 Mixed Refrigerant LNG Process
28 2005 Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. All Rights Reserved
29 MCR Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle Fabrication 2005 Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. All Rights Reserved
30 MCR Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle Fabrication 2005 Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. All Rights Reserved
31 MCR Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle Shipping 2005 Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. All Rights Reserved
32 The Liquefaction Heat Balance HEAT SINK 390MW NG 40C 60bar PROCESS 230MW LNG -162C 1bara POWER 160MW LNG Production 3.7mtpy (500tph) Based on a 3.7mtpy train
33 Centrifugal Compressors Horizontally Split Generally used in high volume/low pressure applications
34 Axial Turbine Blades
35 Overview of LNG Production Facilities Technologies Established Technologies ConocoPhillips (Optimized Cascade) APCI (Propane Precooled) New Process Technologies APCI (AP-X) Linde (MFC) Shell (DMR) IFP (Liquefin)
36 LNG Facility Comparison There are 80 operating trains with a total capacity of 197mtpy (2.5 mtpy/train) APCI C3MR (60) 152 mtpy 76.6% ConocoPhillips Optimised Cascade (9) 30mtpy 15.3% Shell C3MR(1) 4.2mtpy 2.3% Linde MFC (1) 4.2mtpy 2.1% Others (TEAL/SMR) (9) 7.3mtpy 3.7% There are 27 trains under construction with a total capacity of 137mtpy (5.1mtpy/train) APCI (14) 61mtpy 45% APCI AP-X (6) 47mtpy 34% ConocoPhillips Optimised Cascade (3) 10.5mtpy 7.7% Shell C3MR (2) 8.5mtpy 6.2% Shell DMR (2) 9.6mtpy 7.0%
37 ConocoPhillips Optimized LNG Process Courtesy ConocoPhillips Petroleum Company
38 Egypt Idku 2 Trains 3.4mtpy On stream in 2006 COP Optimised Cascade process Air cooled process Very long jetty Space for expansion
39 Darwin LNG: First LNG March 06
40 Atlantic LNG - Train Atlantic LNG All Rights Reserved
41 Atlantic LNG Train 4: 5.2mtpy from 8 Frame 5 GTs Started up in March 2006
42 Atlantic LNG Project Expansion Trinidad 2002 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission
43 Overview of LNG Production Facilities Trends Larger facilities Bigger Trains Bigger Turbines Reduce Environmental Impact CO 2 Produced with gas Developed by turbines NO x Marine Environment
44
45 Typical Project Schedule Greenfield LNG Export Project Year Upstream Terminal Site study drilling and appraisal design construction selection acquisition, approvals prepn. LNG Plant study concept design FEED EPC - construction Shipping study shipping arrangements ship building Project Structure & Evaluation study negotiations -j.v. evaluation Markets analysis marketing, sales agreements first LNG exports Financing advice and analysis securing financing 2000 LNG Journal All Rights Reserved
46 Photo Courtesy of CB&I All Rights Reserved
47 190,000m 3 LNG Storage Tank
48
49 The Basic LNG Chain Gas Production LNG Production Shipping LNG Reception Gas Utilization
50 1959 The Methane Pioneer 2004 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission
51 2008 Hamworthy, Used With Permission, All Rights Reserved
52 LNG Carrier Fleet As at 1 January 2008 the Carrier Fleet was 250 ships, average age 13 years 400 ships in % Membrane, 45% Moss, 3% others Small carriers 20-80,000m 3 Typical Carriers ,000m 3 New very large carriers on order for Qatar long distance trades ( ,000m 3 ). The order book is 142 ships Some Fleet owners now looking to replace older ships >35 years
53 One of the World s Smallest LNG Carriers The 19,100 m 3 Capacity Surya Aki
54 2008 Hamworthy, Used With Permission, All Rights Reserved
55
56
57 Partial Loading of LNG Cargoes Photo Courtesy of ABS
58 2002 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission A Typical Large-Size LNG Carrier The 135,000 m 3 Capacity Al Bidda
59 Qflex
60 2008 Hamworthy, Used With Permission, All Rights Reserved
61 2008 Hamworthy Used With Permission All Rights Reserved
62 2008 Hamworthy, Used With Permission, All Rights Reserved
63 The Basic LNG Chain Gas Production LNG Production Shipping LNG Reception Gas Utilization
64
65 Costs in an LNG Project Gas Gathering Liquefaction (1 train) Ships $250 m Regasification TOTAL US$ billion US$ billion US$ 1.3 billion US$ billion US$ billion Could easily reach $7,000,000,000
66 Negishi Terminal, Japan : Single Containment Tanks (background) Inground Tanks (foreground) 2002 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission
67
68 US LNG Terminal: Elba Island
69 The Basic LNG Chain Gas Production LNG Production Shipping LNG Reception Gas Utilization
70 Seasonal Demand Pattern Europe & North America
71 Gas Markets 1. Residential & Commercial a. Heating demand highly seasonal (low load factor) b. No fuel switching capabilities 2. Industrial a. Fuel for factories, chemical plants, steel mills, etc. b. Power generation for factories, chemical plants, steel mills, etc. c. Chemical feedstock ammonia, methanol, GTL d. High load factor e. Fuel switching capability
72
73 Ship-to-Ship Transfer
74 Gas Markets Power Generation a. Combined cycle most popular GT + waste heat boiler Eff.~55% Low CO 2 emissions 7 8 tonnes/mw compared to tonnes/mw for coal b. Higher load factor than residential & commercial c. Quick response to demand swings d. Summer demand higher than winter (A/C) e. Fuel switching capability
75 Gas-Fired Electric Power Generation 2002 GE All Rights Reserved
76 GE GAS TURBINES H-Technology MW combined cycle output Firing at 2600 F, 1430 C 23:1 compressor, 18 stages 4 stage turbine 60% combined cycle efficiency
77 Example Heating Values Japan Power Plant USA - Florida UK MJ/m3 Adapted from: Bramoulle, Morin and Capelle, LNG Quality and Market Flexibil Challenges and Solutions, LNG 14, Doha, Qatar 2004
78 Examples of Sales Gas Specifications Quality Water Content Dew Point H 2 S Total S USA 4-7lb H2O/MMscf 32 o F at 1000psi gr/100scf (4-16ppm vol) 5-20 gr/100scf ( ppm vol) Canada -10 o C at 7000kPa 65mg/std m mg/m 3 ( gr/100scf) Europe -8 o C@ 70barg 5mg/m mg/m 3 30mg/m 3 UK -10 o C@ 85barg 4mg/m 3 50mg/m 3 CO 2 2-3% 2% 2.5 mole% 2.0 mole% N 2 2-3% Typically not specified Typically not specified 5 mole% O 2 0.1% 0.4% 0.01 mole% mole% Hydrocarbon Dew Point +15 o 800psia -10 o Specified pressure -2 o C@70barg -2 o C@85barg Wobbe Index Typically not specified Typically not specified kWh/m MJ/m 3 Gross Heating Value btu/scf MJ/std m mj.m 45 MJ/std m kwh/m MJ/m 3
79 Gas Interchange Diagram Adapted from A Guide to the Gas Safety (Management) Regulations 1996 Guidance on Regulations Health & Safety Executive. Crown Copyright (UK) 1996 Non Methane components %
80 Commercial Trends 1. Rapid increase in capital cost 2. More competition, more risk-taking. Global supply strategies 3. Building ships/terminals in advance of firm supply/sales contracts. Merchant facilities 4. Increasing power generation market 5. Regional market trends a. Asia. Liberalization of existing markets. India. China. b. Europe. Open access. Market related prices. LNG and pipeline supplies. c. Americas. USA more terminals? Price volatility. d. Central/South America. 6. Market niches: small-scale supply projects, reception, satellites.
81 Flex LNG concept SPB type Cargo Containment Flat deck to mount process plant
82 LNG Roaring Ahead Where Will it End?
83 2008 Hamworthy, Used With Permission, All Rights Reserved
84 3. Effect on Marine Environment Use of air coolers Reduce Environmental Impact 1. Reduce CO2 Inject Produced CO2 Install most efficient drivers Cogeneration Larger Turbines Electric Motor Drivers 2. Reduce NOx Install Clean-burn technology
85 UK Gas Supply and Demand
86 World LNG Trade 2005 LNG Journal & Reproduced with Permission
87 Some of Today s Challenges in LNG..Many Permits for US Imports Crews for LNG Carriers LNG quality variations Security Materials and Staffing
88 LNG Roaring Ahead Where Will it End? John Morgan John M. Campbell & Company Exclusive Provider of PetroSkills Facilities Training Headquarters Office 1215 Crossroads Blvd., Norman, OK USA (405) Office / (405) Fax / (303) Cell djm@jmcampbell.com / John M. Campbell & Co. and Other Copyright Holders All Rights Reserved
89 Melkoya Island
90 StatoilHydro Snøhvit Plant Europe's first LNG export facility Capacity 4.2mtpy Linde MFC process First shipment 20 th October km tie-back to subsea templates CO 2 sequestration
91 THE END Thank You!
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96 Bontang Train B Incident April 1983
97 Natural Gas Reserves/Consumption 1. Russia (Gazprom) 26.6%) 14.7% 2. Iran (NIOC) 14.9%) 56% 3.2% 3. Qatar (Qatargas) 14.3%) 0.6% 4. Saudi (Saudi Aramco) 3.8% 2.5% 5. UAE (Adnoc) 3.4% 1.5% 6. USA 3.0% 23.0% 7. Nigeria (NNPC) 2.9% 8. Algeria (Sonatrach) 2.5% 0.9% 9. Venezuela (PDVSA) 2.4% 1.1% 10. Iraq (INOC) 1.8% 11.Indonesia 1.5% 1.3% 12.Australia 1.4% 0.9% 13. Malaysia 1.4% 1.3% 14.China 1.3% 1.7% 15.Norway 1.3% 0.2% 16. ROW 17.5% 37.1% Courtesy BP Statistical Review 2006
98 Prices in 2006 (7) ($/MMBtu) Japan 7.14 EU 8.77 UK 7.87 USA (HH) 6.76 Oil (20) Current Prices 10-15
99 2008 Hamworthy, Used With Permission, All Rights Reserved
100
101 Costs in an LNG Project Gas Gathering Liquefaction (1 train) Ships $180 m Regasification TOTAL US$ billion US$ billion US$ 0.9 billion US$ 0.5 billion US$ billion Could easily reach $5,000,000,000
102
SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION
SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION The Society gratefully acknowledges those companies that support the program by allowing their professionals
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