The World Bank Sudan Statistical Capacity Building Project (P152016)

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF SUDAN STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING PROJECT APPROVED ON OCTOBER 1, 2015 TO MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING REPORT NO.: RES30198 Public Disclosure Authorized POVERTY AND EQUITY AFRICA Public Disclosure Authorized Regional Vice President: Country Director: Senior Global Practice Director: Practice Manager/Manager: Task Team Leader: Makhtar Diop Carolyn Turk Carolina Sanchez Pierella Paci Alvin Etang Ndip, Simon Lange

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective November 7, 2017) 1 USD =6.65 SDG FISCAL YEAR January 1 December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CBS Central Bureau of Statistics CIFA Country Integrated Fiduciary Assessment CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CSO Civil Society Organization DFID Department for International Development DG Director General ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework FCS Fragile and Conflict States FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GOS Government of Sudan ICD International Cooperation Directorate IFI International Financial Institution IGA Income Generating Activities ISN Interim Strategy Note INC Interim National Constitution I-PRSP Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper MDA Ministries, Departments and Agencies MDGs Millennium Development Goals MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys MoFEP MoL Ministry of Finance and Economic Economy Ministry of Labor MoWSS Ministry of Welfare and Social Security NGO Non-Governmental Organization NSDS National Strategy for the Development of Statistics NSPC National Strategic Planning Council NSS National Statistical System PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper SNA System of National Accounts

3 BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID P Original EA Category Not Required (C) Approval Date 01-Oct-2015 Financing Instrument Investment Project Financing Current EA Category Not Required (C) Current Closing Date 23-Nov-2017 Organizations Borrower Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning Responsible Agency Central Bureau of Statistics Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity of CBS to monitor social indicators, collect pilot household agricultural production statistics, and improve the country s system of national accounts. Summary Status of Financing TF Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Net Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed TF Oct Nov Nov Nov Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No

4 I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING Activity Status Component 1: Strengthen monitoring of social indicators This component has two activities. The first activity will support CBS in creating comparable poverty estimates for HBS 2008/9 and HBS 2014/15 as well as update the poverty maps based on the data from HBS 2014/15. The CBS prepared a Terms of Reference (TOR) to recruit a consultant to work on this activity and announced the vacancy on August 31, Following the deadline of September 20, 2016, a CBS Selection Committee was created (in October 2016) and received training from the World Bank s Procurement Specialist. The committee evaluated the three applications received and the evaluation report was cleared by the CBS Director General in January CBS contacted the selected consultant, requested for and accepted the consultant s financial proposal. The contract has been drafted and the consultant will sign the contract on the work start date. The start date is planned for early December, with the activity expected to be completed in April The activity depends on the ability of the consultant to access the 2014/15 data which is planned to be released by end of November 2017 (the consultant already has HBS 2009 data). The second activity will provide support to CBS in mapping available key social indicators, identifying data gaps and drafting a plan to close those gaps. A minor change has been made to this activity where the comprehensive labor market descriptive statistics based on 2011 Sudan Labor Force Survey will not be included since there has been already a report prepared by Ministry of Labor. However, a discussion on labor will be included in the social indicators report. The call for applications for this consultancy was closed on November 21, Seven applications were received, with six from the local market. The Selection Committee re-evaluated the applications because some of its members had not used the TOR for evaluation. The CBS concluded the evaluation by mid-april. This activity will be based on the available surveys for social indicators, whose data are available. CBS has contacted the consultant, and the contract is planned to be signed by early November. The targets for this activity is planned to be achieved by March Component 2: Build capacity to collect and produce high-quality agricultural data through piloting CAPI. CBS prepared a Concept Note for the pilot survey including a proposed sample design focusing on one state. Following discussions between CBS, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Livestock, Kassala State was selected for this pilot survey. This is because it is representative of rain-fed and irrigated crop production and livestock, and, thus, will be an exemplary state to learn more about linkages between agriculture and poverty. The sampling frame will be based on the 2008 population census, which is the latest available frame. CBS has already engaged a sampler, and the sample size has been determined (900 households). The sample size is calculated to be large enough to give statistical significance for all households engaged in crop production and/or livestock. A two-stage cluster sampling design will be implemented. In the first stage, the Popular Administrative Units (PAUs) have been selected using probability proportional to size (PPS). In the

5 second stage, households will be chosen using systematic sampling, following listing of households in selected PAUs. Further, CBS has recruited a consultant for this survey, who has developed draft survey instruments. Data collection will be done using tablets (CAPI). The required tablets have been purchased and the draft Survey Solutions questionnaire available. The survey is in an advanced preparatory stage. CBS will update the timeline and review the budget by October 31, Training of enumerators is planned to take place by early February 2018, concluding with field piloting of the instruments. Field work will proceed immediately after that, expected to run from early March to April. The results of this survey are expected by August Component 3: Support for National Accounts For this component, the CBS will be supported in this activity by an international consultant who will provide support on a technical needs analysis to improve Sudan System of National Accounts and provide a roadmap for updating National Accounts at the Federal level. A consultant has been selected by CBS through a competitive process. CBS contacted the selected consultant, and has prepared a draft contract that is planned to be signed by late November Work will start in January 2018 and the activity will be finalized by September If the plan proceeds as proposed, PDO indicator for this component would be achieved on time. Rationale for restructuring There is a delay in achieving milestones of the project development objective (PDO) by the original November 2017 closing date. All three indicators measuring progress towards the PDO are currently delayed, and the PDO cannot be achieved by the November 2017 current closing date. One main factor contributed to the delay but has now been successfully resolved. This is the substantial delays in resolving critical concerns related to project implementation, which were mentioned in the Aide Memoire of the April 2017 mission. team had productive discussions with the CBS and the MoFEP during a meeting on August 30, 2017, and a follow up meeting on October 12, 2017, as well as a mission to Sudan from October 22-29, Based on the observed progress in the last two months, the mission assesses progress towards the PDO as moderately satisfactory. The current implementation status of the project will allow to achieve the PDO by November 2018 (the proposed new closing date). After resolving the critical project concerns, CBS has prepared an action plan, which is accepted by the World Bank. It is proposed to proceed with project implementation and extend the closing date by one year as requested by the MoFEP to allow to achieve the PDO, which remains relevant. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES

6 No major changes are being proposed. Extending the closing date by one year is the main revision proposed. One minor change relates to Indicator 1 (Compilation of key social statistics and plan to improve their production and dissemination). This activity initially included presentation of comprehensive labor market descriptive statistics based on the 2011 Sudan Labor Force Survey. But the Ministry of Labor (MoL) has already prepared a report containing labor market descriptive statistics. Thus, this analysis is now redundant. For this reason, this sub-activity has been cancelled. But a discussion on labor statistics will be included in the report on social indicators. Details of the revised results framework are in Annex 1. I. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Change in Results Framework Not Changed Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule Change in Implementing Agency Change in Project's Development Objectives Change in Components and Cost Cancellations Proposed Additional Financing Proposed Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Disbursements Arrangements Change in Disbursement Estimates Change in Overall Risk Rating Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Change of EA category Change in Legal Covenants Change in Institutional Arrangements Change in Financial Management Change in Procurement Other Change(s)

7 PDO_IND_TABLE IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_RESULTS_TABLE RESULTS FRAMEWORK Project Development Objective Indicators Compilation of key social statistics and plan to improve their production and dissemination Unit of Measure: Text Indicator Type: Custom Value Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Report on available key social indicators Current available social Consultants to do the and plan for closing indicators from incountry systems identified tasks have been the most important gaps in key social Revised indicators Date 01-Jan Sep Nov-2018 Publication of the pilot household agricultural survey results Unit of Measure: Text Indicator Type: Custom Value Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action The concept note for this No available surveys activity has been Dissemination of the prepared and survey pilot survey results Revised instruments developed Date 01-Jan Sep Nov-2018 Roadmap to update National Accounts at the Federal level Unit of Measure: Text Indicator Type: Custom Value Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Prepare a Project Document for the Migration to SNA 2008 Current available Consultant hiring process that can be forwarded assessments of SNA in advanced stage to the development Revised partners for finance and technical assistance. Convene a

8 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE workshop for the UN system in Sudan for the purpose. Date 01-Jan Sep Nov-2018 Intermediate Indicators IO_IND_TABLE Build capacity to collect and produce high quality agricultural data through piloting CAPI Unit of Measure: Text Indicator Type: Custom Value Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action The concept note for survey instruments this activity has been developed for the APS prepared and survey No available surveys and CAPI training Revised instruments developed. delivered to CBS staff CBS staff received and enumerators training on CAPI Date 01-Jan Sep May-2018 LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) TF Status Original Closing Revised Closing(s) Proposed Closing Proposed Deadline for Withdrawal Applications TF Effective 23-Nov Nov Mar-2019 Note to Task Teams: End of system generated content, document is editable from here. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES First, the Project Coordinator is out of contract as CBS reported that they cannot pay him because he has retired; yet he continues to work on the project in that role. The challenge is being mitigated by hiring the Project Coordinator using the

9 project funds for the period November 2017 to November This was a joint decision between CBS, MoFEP and the World Bank. Second, continued delay in releasing the HBS 2014/15 data may affect timely preparation of a poverty profile and maps. CBS has advised that the HBS 2014/15 data will be available once its dissemination has been completed in November Third, field insecurity may affect implementation of the agricultural production survey. This risk is mitigated by selecting a stable and secure state for the implementation of the survey. Fourth, implementation of some activities (poverty profiles and maps, pilot agricultural production survey, and national accounts roadmap may be affected by delays in obtaining visa for international consultants. Facilitation of these visa approvals by the Government will help to mitigate this risk. Fifth, the current macro-economic context could lead to increased exchange rate depreciation coupled with high inflation reducing purchasing power of funds held in local currency. This risk is mitigated by ensuring that only small amounts of funds are held in local currency.

10 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring ly PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE (PDO): Strengthen the capacity of CBS to monitor social indicators, collect pilot household agricultural production statistics, and improve the country s system of national accounts. PDO Level Results Indicators* Indicator One: Compilation of key social statistics and plan to improve their production and dissemination. Indicator Two: Publication of the pilot household agricultural survey results. Indicator Three: Roadmap to update National Accounts at the Federal level. Core Unit of Measure Numbe r Text Text Baseline Current available social indicator s from incountry systems No available surveys Current available assessme nts of SNA Cumulative Target Values** January 2018 April 2018 July 2018 October 2018 Map of the Key poverty Poverty Report on available key available key social indicators based profiling and social indicators and indicators and on HBS 2014/15 mapping plan for closing the most identification of important gaps in key the main gaps social indicators Design of the survey sample and questionnaire Review of previous assessments and Statistics Norway ongoing activities to identify the gap in CBS concepts and capacity and the missing surveys to migrate to SNA 2008 CAPI training for CBS staff and enumerators. Training of enumerators and supervisors Identify the survey priorities in relation to the implementation of the Action Plan of the NSDS Data collection completed Design the Strategy for the migration to SNA 2008 by 2020 with detailed Action Plan Activities, timeline and cost. Dissemination of the pilot survey results Prepare a Project Document for the Migration to SNA 2008 that can be forwarded to the development partners for finance and technical assistance. Convene a workshop for the UN system in Sudan for the purpose. Frequency Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Data Source/ Method ology CBS release calendar CBS release calendar CBS release calendar Responsibili ty for Data Collection CBS and key MDAs CBS Director General and Project Coordinator CBS DG and Project Coordinator