An invitation to subscribe to the sixth Gira World Dairy Club, 2016/17-20

Transcription

1 An invitation to subscribe to the sixth Gira World Dairy Club, 2016/17-20 Gira s unique annual analysis of milk production and the main dairy commodities in each of the world's major producing, consuming and trading countries: Butter Cheese SMP WMP Whey powders Vegetable fat-filled milk powders Technical dairy ingredients With price and volume forecasts for 2016 and 2017 & volume and price trend forecasts through 2020 Understanding & managing current crises in the framework of short- & medium-term global dairy trends clafougere@girafood.com Tel: Website: GDC 2016

2 What is the Gira Dairy Club? This will be the sixth year of Gira's Dairy Club (the GDC): It is now established as the unique qualitative and quantitative forecasting base for all the main dairy production, consumption and trading countries of the world. It covers all the issues influencing dairy commodities & milk production in the short and medium term. The 2016 GDC will give you, for milk production, for each of the major commodity families, and for each of the 27 key countries/regions: Comprehensive, coherent & comparable information explaining the events leading to the current situation Gira's price & volume estimates for 2016 & 2017 Volume & price trend forecasts through Together with all the analyses & comments you need to be able to fully understand and exploit the information. What you receive: An over 200 page world Synthesis and a unique databank of 27 individual Country Reports of a total of over 1000 pages as well as the Gira World Dairy Wall Chart Attendance for 2 representatives per Member organisation at the annual Members Conference A personalised presentation of results at your office tailored to your company's situation. GDC 2016 It's a real Club When the research has been completed, in early September, we bring the Members of the Dairy Club together for the annual Conference where they profit from the expert analyses, interaction and discussions based on our findings and forecasts. The meeting is highly informative and thought-provoking, in a collegial, relaxed & informal atmosphere. Where the Members themselves bring real added-value to the presentations, discussions and round-table. The 2016 GDC Members Conference will take place in the afternoon of Monday & most of Tuesday September 12 th & 13 th at the remarkable Jiva Hill Resort Hotel just 15 minutes by taxi from Geneva Airport. Visit: The attendance fee, meals and accommodation for the night of 12 th September for two representatives from each Member organisation are included in the 2016 membership fee. Also included are the visit to the Comté AOP. 2

3 What you get in the Reports every year A complete overview of the world's dairy commodity supply chain: What's moving and where it's going in 27 countries (the EU and Sub-Saharan Africa each counting as one). For the EU there are also individual "zoom" reports of around 15 pages each on the seven main dairy countries: DE, DK, FR, GB, IE, NL, PL. Milk pool & milk supply dynamics e.g. the impact of low prices, economic uncertainty, and the continuing Russian ban Who's doing what and why (dairies, governments etc.). Including a Special Topic on international dairies' strategies The key trends in production, consumption and trade of dairy commodities; competitiveness, added value etc. An overview of trends in fresh & chilled dairy including the role of reconstitution in both emerging and traditional markets All the current big issues impacting the supply chain price cycles, FTAs... and whatever happens between now & September. There's a vast amount of information around - but no one puts it together coherently and explains, on an ongoing basis, what it all means for you. The Gira Dairy Club does this uniquely, consistently, and every year. Cover of all the five major traded dairy commodities market & production dynamics, trade & price formation: Cheese SMP Butter Whey powders (including demineralised) WMP in all the main producing and consuming countries. These commodities make the milk price for everyone. Understanding them and managing their inherent volatility is a key success factor for all operators. Technical dairy ingredients further expanding our analyses of production and markets: casein, lactose, MPC/I. A growing but still un-transparent sector, of increasing importance to all operators. Vegetable fat filled milk powders (FFMP) continuing and deepening our coverage of last year. Short & medium-term (to 2020) volume and price forecasts for milk and each commodity in each country. We track our accuracy from year to year, and you always know how and why we have made our forecasts. GDC

4 What s new in this year s Gira Dairy Club? The 2016 edition of the GDC will allow us to further deepen our insights into the main issues of importance to the dairy sector as well as to broaden the GDC s strategic coverage of products and dairies. All of the coverage of GDC 2015 has been maintained, and this year we will add: 1. Deeper Country Coverage Iran: the lifting of sanctions looks like it really could make a difference. Even if things won't change overnight, Iran back in the market in a big way would be a rare bit of good news in a currently very morose climate. So this year we will expand our analysis of the routes to market for importers. The EU: analysing what really happened in 2015, now post-quota dust is settling. What lessons for the future? China: a strategic analysis of the all-important corporate dairy scene: sourcing, market, financial. 2. A strategic zoom a Special Topic on the world's major dairy operators Each year we have improved our profiles of the major dairies. This year we exploit these in a special analysis, comparing & contrasting the strategies of largest operators (national, regional & international) and projecting these forward into the medium and longer term. 3. How farmers are dealing with very low milk prices in the Country Reports and as a Special Topic After some of the best prices of recent times, all is now gloom & doom. But is profitability & cash flow really so bad; will we see an acceleration of farms closing? with what consequences? how are the dairies helping their suppliers? Is the current situation just another case of crying wolf in a classical, cyclical downturn, or is this a paradigm change that could usher in a new dawn in farmer processor (and even retailer) relations? And this year we propose a one-off opportunity for Members to visit Europe's most successful & highest added value, but least known, volume cheese production region: the 55KT Comté AOP, just 1.5 hours from the GDC venue. GDC

5 Contents of the Proposal 1. Update Page 6 2. Objectives of the 2016 Gira Dairy Club 8 3. Methodology 9 4. Products and Countries covered The Members Conference An optional visit to the Comté AOP cheese production chain Contents of the GDC reports & Presentation The Gira Team Gira's Qualifications & Clients Timing & Membership Fee 25 GDC

6 1. Background Managing persistent moroseness in a high-risk environment Even if a small degree of temporary stability seems to have returned to the sector, it is not in the way that milk producers & primary commodity producers would like. The much awaited cyclical upswing looks more for 2017 than The main commodity prices seem to have stabilised more recently for fats and cheddar, but at low levels not seen since 2009, and with continuing fragility especially for powders. Milk production is likely to stay stubbornly high. Even in the face of weak prices, parts of post-quota EU continue to expand production (Ireland, NL ), while NZ farmers are still increasing their use of PKE & reducing cow culling, and US production grows. Cash flow seems to be winning over profitability storing up more problems for the future? or enlightened optimism? A medium-term lifting of the Russian ban or a return of Chinese ingredient imports to 2013/14 levels are most unlikely. But while most producers are suffering, the larger, branded dairies and the multiple retailers are seeing good profits as they target more added value and delay passing on to consumers (or simply ignore) the declines in raw milk and commodity prices. NEW ZEALAND Still valid? At NZ$ 3.90/kg MS? In this context, it is easy to see why adding value to milk and commodities is becoming the way for dairies and their milk pools to prosper and/or (increasingly) survive attenuating the effects of price volatility while building a stable client base. But in times of economic hardship low consumer spending; low oil & gas prices; overproduction for many this Holy Grail remains as elusive as ever. What distinguishes success from also-ran in the current directionless, highly competitive environment? The GDC Leitmotiv this year will be just how the supply chain is adapting to this continuing moroseness GDC

7 Background Some sort of stability since GDC 2015 waiting? for what? Compared to the roller coaster that GDC Members had experienced in the run-up to last year's GDC, the last 6 months have been a relatively smoother ride. But while any stability is welcome, the ride has been exclusively along the bottom so far as world dairy prices are concerned prices which are now simply untenable in the current supply chain structure. But powders have continued to slip And even the protected EU & US domestic markets are now under pressure Exchange rates against the USD ( = 100) Jan March May July Sept Nov Jan March May July Sept Nov Jan EURO Ruble Yuan Alg Dinar NZ$ But can just a few % more milk and less cheese and powder trade really put the whole global dairy system in jeopardy? Or is it just the cyclical blues again, with the agony prolonged this time by a combination of unfortunate circumstances. This year's GDC will investigate whether we are currently seeing a paradigm change or not. What are the consequences likely to be? Are dairies' current strategies helping or making matters worse? GDC

8 2. Objectives of the GDC Short- & medium-term forecasts for the world s dairy supply chain The primary aim of the Gira Dairy Club is to present, on an annual basis for all the main markets, volume & price forecasts for milk & commodity production, consumption & trade in the form of a structured, coherent and forward-looking analysis of the main drivers of the global dairy industry. Thus GDC Members can benefit from the opportunities and reduce the risks that new global & national dairy markets are creating. This requires the following sub-objectives, at world level and for each major producing & consuming country: Current, complete and coherent information, presented in a unified and comparable way The basis for strategy development and decision-making in a world where nothing happens in isolation any more Clear presentation and explanation of the circumstances giving rise to the current situation Statistics alone are often meaningless, and indeed, they often simply don t exist. An informed, qualitative understanding of the drivers and brakes behind what is happening is what the GDC provides Our analyses go far beyond the basic macroeconomic "production - trade - consumption" breakdown, covering producer and industry structures, routes to market, price formation, strategies of the major operators etc. Analysis of all the important events of the last 18 months: markets, operators, stakeholders etc. Short-term price and volume forecasts for the 5 major dairy commodities and for the milk price We are constantly being made aware of the extent to which the short-term can derail even the best long-term strategies As price volatility amplifies, it is essential to understand and evaluate the short-term components of price formation Medium-term trend and volume forecasts Major change is taking place right across the world s dairy industry but change is never linear and so it requires constant monitoring and analysis. The annual GDC provides truly rolling short-term and five-year forecasts. Coverage of the increasingly important and complex technical ingredients sector. In the process, the GDC also provides a uniquely homogeneous databank of all the most relevant dairy sector information and trends one which is updated annually. GDC

9 3. Methodology Three main types of information source are used in the research for the GDC: Extensive documentary research: published studies, trade press, corporate and other websites etc. A programme of expert interviews in all the countries concerned, essentially with: dairies, traders, producers, administrations and associations Gira's broad knowledge and in-house databanks, and our hands-on experience in dairy worldwide. The research will be carried out mainly in the period from April through August Prices and volume estimates for 2016 & 2017 and volumes and price trends through 2020 will thus be based on solid 2015 data and the latest information & opinions available to us up to publication in September Quantitative data is presented clearly, largely in graphic form. Each Country Report follows essentially the same format, to ensure coherence and comparability (see below). Historical series generally begin in 2005 or before, with estimates and forecasts through 2020 The hypotheses used in drawing up our estimates and forecasts are always clearly explained. Our consultants will compare their current, GDC 2016 estimates and forecasts with those of last year s GDC: Clearly showing the impact for the future of any unforeseen events occurring during the past year Drawing the lessons and conclusions from any significant variations. GDC

10 4. Product and country coverage Products covered: All cow milk production (with buffalo for India). The five main dairy commodities: Butter Cheese SMP WMP Whey powders. They are a major part of total milk usage, making the milk price in most parts of the world. Cheese is analysed at country level by major cheese type where significant. The split "hard-semi-hard", "processed" and "other" is used wherever possible at global level. We also cover the main "technical" dairy ingredients: casein, lactose and MPC/I as well as fat Filled Milk Powders at world level and by major producer. We will further deepen our analysis of the rapidly changing IF markets. Major trends in fresh & chilled dairy will be further analysed in major markets where we are seeing significant change. This will target the major developing chilled markets, in particular the Chinese and US markets. China's JD s delivery service by electric three-wheelers The 27 Countries covered: All the major milk producer and consumer countries are covered in their own, individual Country Reports. Two main criteria have been considered in judging the degree and nature of cover for each country : The importance of that country s production or consumption in total world production and consumption of each commodity And/or its importance in world trade of that commodity. The EU has its own extensive Report, as one country among the 27 covered. However, we also provide short reports and forecasts for each of the seven main EU producer/consumer countries: France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the UK. These also show their intra-eu trade. We will continue to increase our analyses of the Chinese market, in particular to better understand milk production & distribution. GDC 2015 covered around 3/4rs of world milk production and around 80% of dairy commodity production. GDC

11 Countries & products covered GDC 2015 reports coverage The table below shows the reports produced for GDC GDC 2016 will be almost identical 2015 Specific dairy commodity cover in GDC 2015 Number of Milk production Cheese Butter SMP WMP Whey powders pages in GDC15 Synthesis volume X X X X X X 198 Country reports: Algeria X X X 51 Argentina X X X X 71 Australia X X X X X X 77 Belarus X X X X X X 40 Brazil X X X X 55 China X X X X X X 91 Egypt X X X X 46 EU X X X X X X 145 Plus overview cover: France x 16 Germany x 15 Ireland x 18 Denmark x MAIN COMMODITIES PRODUCED 16 Netherlands x 21 Poland x 14 United Kingdom x 16 India X X X X 97 Indonesia X X X X X X 41 Iran X X X X X 29 Japan X X X X X X 65 Malaysia X X X X 52 Mexico X X X X X X 62 New Zealand X X X X X X 93 Nigeria X Overview 32 Philippines X X X X 61 Russia X X X X X X 92 Saudi Arabia X X X X X X 64 South Korea X X X X 47 Sub-Saharan Africa X Overview 43 Thailand X X X X X X 45 Turkey X X X X X X 58 Ukraine X X X X 48 USA X X X X X X 100 Uruguay X X X X X 52 Vietnam X X X X 62 Technical ingredients 94 Total number of pages 2127 GDC 2016 will comprise: The Synthesis Giving the main findings, forecasts and global analyses drawn from the Country Reports, together with current industry top-of-mind Special Topics. The latter will be determined as a function of new events and major trends, but we might already expect them to include: Commodity price formation Chinese, SE Asian and Sub- Saharan African imports supply stress tests producer profitability Infant Formula update nutritional uses of concentrated dairy protein EU post quota update, etc. We will also continue to deepen our analyses of the strategies & impact of the world s most influential dairies. The 27 individual Country Reports The countries covered in last year s GDC together with the main commodities analysed and the number of pages of each report, are all shown on the table here. A separate report on Technical Dairy Ingredients: Casein, lactose, WPC/I, MPCs. A report on vegetable fat-filled milk powders As well as the Members Conference (with electronic copies of all presentations), and a Tailored Presentation of results to each Member. GDC

12 5. The Members Conference on 12 & 13 September Presenting the results and debating the issues The GDC Members Conference: This year s Members Conference will take place in the afternoon of the 12 th and the morning & afternoon (until around 16h00) of 13 th September 2015 at the 5-Star Jiva Hill Park Hotel in France, 15 minutes from Geneva Airport. Attendance fees and accommodation for the night of 12 th September for two representatives from each Member are included in the 2016 membership fee. Lunch is provided on both days, and there is a Gala Dinner on the evening of the 14 th (both are included in the membership fee). The Jiva Hill Park Hotel near Geneva The Conference represents major added value for all Members. Top level representatives from our Members organisations come together with Gira s and external specialists for one and a half-days of presentation and discussion of the most important events in the milk supply and dairy commodities world. The subject matter is organised around those themes that are most relevant to international dairy operators (as an indication of the sort of issues treated, see the next page for the 2015 GDC Conference s themes). As requested by Members last year, there will be even more time for discussion this year, both during the Conference sessions and between Members. The conference room Le Hangar The tailored Presentation: Members also receive a half-day presentation of GDC results and conclusions at their own premises, tailored to their own business and needs. This can be a formal presentation, an informal workshop, brainstorming, etc. See page 17 for details. If the presentation takes place in Europe, there is no charge for this other than our travel expenses, which are rebilled at cost. GDC

13 The GDC Members' Conference The example of last year s programme The final Conference programme will be decided in August 2016, as a function of latest developments and the interests of Members attending. The 2015 programme shown here gives an idea of what to expect this year We will continue giving preference to "discussion" over "information" And we will again use our instantaneous, anonymous voting system to sound out Member opinion on the main issues. Several hot topics" for the dairy industry will be presented by invited guest speakers. GDC 2016 Monday Afternoon, 14th September 12h00 13h30 14h00 14h00 14h20 15h20 16h30 16h45 18h30 19h00 20h Members Conference Agenda Registration and lunch Introduction to the 2015 GDC Conference Introducing this year's Conference attendees The main events of 2014 & 2015 The Big Issues for this year: an introduction to the main themes of the Conference Session 1: Where will the demand come from tomorrow? Main dairy commodity market trends. Gira's key forecasts for supply & demand Russia: what's really going on one year after the start of the embargo? Can Russia really produce more dairy products with the same amount of milk? What potential from Mr. Putin s new friends: Turkey & India, Brazil & Argentina? Can Belarus really increase its dairy production? using milk from the EU? Is analog the solution for Russian cheese? And a Finnish perspective (Veijo Merilainen) on what's really happening; what it means for exporters Who could replace Russian (and Chinese) import demand? Which products and at what price? We will zoom on: Iran back into the fold? South Korea another newcomer? And the others who are now back in the game (South East Asia & MENA) Coffee break The medium-term future for dairy in China. What has happened, what might happen now? Setting the scene: how Gira sees the "new" future Current challenges in the Chinese dairy industry and the future for New Zealand dairy products in China. A presentation by David Mahon of Mahon Company The future for dairy ingredients: utilisation and trends in the Chinese dairy sector. A presentation by Patrick HY Kwok of China Huishan Dairy Holdings Followed by a Round Table discussion and Q&A Gira's multiclient dairy projects for 2016: analyzing and forecasting what will be top-of-mind in the supply chain through Cocktails on the terrace Gala Dinner Tuesday Morning, 15 th September 08h00 08h30 08h45 09h45 10h00 Tea and coffee Session 2: Where will the milk and the dairy products come from? Gira's short and medium-term forecasts for the main producing countries The EU: the end of production quotas and the implications for the product mix. Gira's latest production and trade forecasts through 2019 A new role for traders post quota; helping coops to export? A presentation by Jean Marc Foucher of Dreyfus Trading Turkey: an overview of this major consuming market and geographical hub The USA: a brief update by Gira 10h20 10h50 11h10 12h10 12h40 New Zealand: what role for NZ exports and exporters in the medium-term? What changes if any could be expected to the Fonterra model? o Is WMP for China still the best option? What does it mean for world trade if it is not? o What opportunities and threats for Fonterra today? NZ dairy products from other sources; the impact of foreign investment and the other milk processors Coffee Break Session 3: Adding value to milk An overview of what s new: Does demin already belong to the past for exporters? Infant Formula who will grab the added value? A presentation by Tage Affertsholt of 3A Business Consulting What future for chilled dairy products? Down-and-out in the EU? Reconstituted, fresh and up-and-running in Asia? Can packaging really add value to the EU fresh dairy market? A presentation by Dieter Bergner CEO, Coveris Rigid Packaging Europe Anti-milk consumers; just a French phenomenon? 13h00 Open discussion: where will the added value for major dairies be found over the next 5 years? 13h15 14h30 14h30 15h00 Lunch Session 4: Suppliers and Prices An overview of the main corporate developments of the past 18 months Main short- and medium-term price expectations: Gira s commodity stress tests for 2016; the demand vs. supply balance World commodity and milk prices: floors and ceilings, crashes and correlations where next? 16h30 16h45 Winding-up: Putting it all back together. The main elements of consensus (and the opposite ) from the two days. THE GUEST SPEAKERS Tage Affertsholt, Managing Partner in 3A Business Consulting, Denmark. He advises the dairy industry and related companies on strategy and business development. Patrick HY Kwok: Vice President & Executive Director of China Huishan Dairy Holdings Company Limited, the largest dairy company in North-East China and FrieslandCampina s partner in China. Patrick was previously General Manager - Ingredients and General Manager - Business Development for Fonterra China David Mahon: David Mahon is the Founder and Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management Ltd. David has extensive experience undertaking M&A transactions and advising on strategies in China for foreign dairy and agriculture companies. He has managed five private equity portfolios in China. David has been a resident of Beijing for thirty years Jean Marc Foucher: Dreyfus Trading. Jean-Marc Foucher is Head of the Dairy Platform for Louis Dreyfus Commodities. Prior to this, he was Head of the Europe & Black Sea Region from 2011 to 2014, and Chief Operating Officer of the Europe & Black Sea Region and Head of the Black Sea Sub-Region from 2007 to Jean-Marc Foucher has over 20 years of experience in agricultural commodity trading and marketing. Dieter Bergner: CEO Coveris Rigid. Coveris is a leading global manufacturer of food packaging (#6 at world level) with a broad range of value-added flexible and rigid plastic and paper packaging products. It operates 66 production facilities across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Veijo Merilainen: ex number two at Finnish dairy Valio with responsibility for International Operations and Innovations. Now an associate of Gira. Earl Rattray: ex Board Member and Director of Fonterra and one of those instrumental in setting up GDT. He is Gira s representative in Australasia.

14 6. A visit to the Comté AOP region Real B2C added value, produced by farms that shouldn't exist! Given the gloom and doom in much of the dairy market, we thought it was our duty as residents of the Jura cheeseproducing region of France to propose to our Members to stay on for an extra day (Wednesday 14 th September) and visit with us one of the greatest of cheese success stories, and certainly the greatest cooperative success story. Since space doesn't allow us to do it here, readers should look on for a description of the origins of the Comté AOP cheese, the largest AOP in France, and its absolutely unique production structure. But Comté is much, much more than just a fairytale (which it is as well): It's about small, purely extensive dairy farmers, milking local cows (Montbéliards), owning their own village creameries and selling white cheese wheels to refiners, who are themselves steeped in local, often family tradition. It is also the largely unsung story of an economic and commercial powerhouse cheese that is retailed in both gourmet cheese stores and in all the French modern retail chains. It continues to grow strongly and produces possibly the best milk price for its producers in the whole of mainstream EU. It is a story rich in lessons for all on how family farming can prosper in extensive production conditions without depending on subsidies. 2,600 farms, each with around 50 cows, produce "white" wheels of Comté cheese from 160 small, farmer-owned creameries ("fruitières"). This is then matured for between 4 and 24 months by 16 ripeners (affineurs)/packers. The price received by the creameries is fixed globally, by common agreement based on the prices realised and declared by the ripeners The whole production chain is strictly controlled by the AOP scheme And total annual volumes are agreed in advance by common consent. GDC 2016

15 Comté (2) A real and ongoing success story. The next challenge is export The AOP represents 55,000 tons of cheese sold at an average wholesale price of over 9 per kilo (end 2015), higher even than Parmigiano Reggiano. The creameries pay their farmer suppliers 40% more for their milk than the French national milk price (in March 2015: 50 per 100kg, compared to 36 elsewhere). But although volumes have grown 25% in the last 10 years, still only 5,000 tons are exported. For this year's GDC, Monts et Terroirs, the subsidiary of Sodiaal that ripens and packs over 15,000 tons of Comté, has most kindly offered to show GDC Member delegates the whole Comté production chain, from the farm to the final packing for retail. If enough Members are interested, this will take place on the Wednesday after the GDC, with an early departure by coach for the 1.5 hour ride to a farm and then one of the creameries supplying Monts et Terroirs, before going on to the maturation plant itself. We will be guided through the whole unique process and its financial raison d'être will be explained to us by representatives of the company. There will be plenty of opportunity to taste the products, from gourmet 24 month wheels to 4 month retail packs for cooking. Departure will be by coach from the Jiva Hill very early on the Wednesday 14 th September morning, with a return to Geneva Airport & train station by 17h00 in the evening. A detailed agenda will be sent to clients. All costs the trip and overnight at the Jiva Hill on the night of the 13 th will be borne by Gira. GDC 2016

16 7. Contents of the GDC 2015 Reports The Synthesis & Technical Ingredients volumes The Synthesis will largely follow the model of GDC 2015: 2015 Synthesis (198 pages) Table of Contents The Synthesis volume Presentations and analyses of all major developments and change having an impact at global level. The Big Issues. In particular, the main events of the last year and what they mean. Including an overview of Fresh dairy in countries where this is changing fast. Consolidations and comparisons. Everything in its context. Analyses of each major commodity at global level. Short-term price & volume forecasts (2016 & 2017), together with medium term (2020) volume & price trend forecasts. Special Topics reality checks on what lies behind the key issues of the day. The topics will be chosen depending as a function of important current events. The Technical Ingredients Report (94 pages in 2015) Latest developments and quantifications Including a separate analysis of Fat Filled Milk Powders (FFMP). GDC

17 Contents of the GDC 2015 Reports (2) The Country Reports unique overview and depth of analysis The Country Reports, example of contents from last year s GDC: 2015: China (91 pages) Each Country Report follows the same basic structure comparable, coherent. Comprehensive analysis, fully updated each year for the latest prices & volumes, events, and forecasts. Dairy developments are described in their socio-economic, agro-political, dairy industry, and corporate environments. Historical balance tables are given for each commodity, also showing forecasts for production, trade and consumption for 2016, 2017 and This is the basis for our commentaries and analyses. For the EU, as well as a global report, there are separate short reports (around 15 pages each) for the main EU producers: France, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland & the UK. Each of the 27 individual Country Reports (see list on page 11) is designed to be used in its own right. Detail of the contents of the extensive Dairy Commodities chapter (chapter 8) in each Country Report is given on the following page. GDC

18 The contents of the Dairy Commodities chapter For each of Butter Cheese SMP WMP Whey powders In each Country Report, there is an individual section for each dairy commodity that is to be analysed for the country concerned. For each dairy commodity covered, we describe its dynamics qualitatively (accelerators and brakes, product arbitrage, etc.) and quantitatively in terms of volumes and prices. We also forecast volumes and prices for 2016 & 2017, together with volume estimates and price trends through Our coverage targets those elements that are of most importance for international trade and investment. Attention is paid to the roles of the main dairies active on these sectors (we also include mini-profiles). Note that the EU is considered as one region/country in this context, but we also include specific analyses of each important commodity in each of the 7 main producer and consumer Member States: DE, DK, FR, GB, IE, IT, NL, and PL. In GDC 2016, there will be a further update analysis for each of these countries of the effect to date and in the medium term of the end of milk production quotas. We generally present the following aspects for each fully-covered dairy commodity: Country summary: major trends and foreseeable major changes, volume and price forecasts Consumption: main end-user segments, wholesale prices (where available) Production: type of products, accelerators and brakes, main routes to market, main producers Imports (if important): origins, prices, tariff & non-tariff barriers, route to market Exports (if important): destinations, prices, aid and subsidies Domestic and trade price formation (including stocks where available). GDC

19 The Presentation to individual Members Strategy & insight information & debate The Tailored Presentation: Members receive a half-day presentation of results and conclusions at their own premises, tailored to their own businesses and needs. This represents real added value, since Gira s presenter also brings with him or her our hands-on knowledge and experience of the worldwide dairy industry. The presentation can take the shape of a formal presentation, an informal workshop, a Q&A, etc. We will tailor the contents and delivery to the needs and interests of the attendees strategic, operational, new markets, M&A prospects, etc. It can be a general overview of where the global dairy industry is going, or a series of specific zooms on products and/or markets of particular interest to the Member or both. If the presentation takes place in Europe, there is no charge other than our travel expenses, which are rebilled at cost. GDC

20 The Gira World Dairy WALLCHART The 2015 world of dairy on your office wall! 2014 was the first year of the Gira WALLCHART; we're doing it again this year. All the key issues, figures and trends in World Dairy up to date, and on one wallchart. Only for GDC Members. No one else has anything like it! GDC

21 Summary of the 2016 GDC Deliverables Strategy AND insight information AND debate 27 Country reports The World Dairy WALLCHART GDC 2016 Members Conference 12 & 13th September 2016 near Geneva. GDC

22 8. The Gira Team The Gira Dairy Club is supervised by Christophe Lafougère. He has been directing all of Gira's consulting and research activities in the dairy sector for over 20 years: Covering all aspects of production, collecting, processing and marketing In all the major dairy producing and consuming regions of the world. He is well-known throughout the industry and is a regular speaker at major international dairy events. He will be assisted by Gira's team of highly experienced managers, consultants and researchers, all of whom have many years' experience in the international dairy sector. They also have wide agribusiness experience in the countries for which they are responsible and are fully aware of all the key issues of the moment. The GDC also benefits from the wide experience in dairy industry strategy of our Associate, Veijo Meriläinen, who until recently was director of the extensive foreign activities and of innovation with the large Finnish dairy, Valio. Where relevant, Gira will also call on external experts (from industry and other organisations) with specific product and geographical experience. Milk Producer Prices (China, NZ, US, EU), e GDC

23 9. Gira's qualifications Unrivalled worldwide dairy industry experience Gira has vast experience in world dairy, going back over 40 years: At all levels - from macroeconomic trade analyses, through new market evaluations, to market due diligence for M&A Throughout the whole dairy supply chain - in supply, trade, commodities, ingredients and consumer products. Gira knows all the main operators in the supply chain, and has worked for a large number of them. Coops, dairies, logistics operators, ingredient manufacturers, traders, retailers, caterers, administrations - and consumers In every major dairy consuming and producing region of the world. We have produced a large number of international multiclient studies in the dairy and related sectors As well as many strategic consultancy assignments and dedicated market research programmes. Price discounting in the Chinese Infant Formula market Our managers and associates regularly make presentations at international dairy conferences and participate in international workshops. Malaysian GUMP Milk for seniors Recuperation USA GDC 2016

24 Some of Gira's dairy clients Members of GDC 2015 Agropur ALIC Arla Foods Asemac DSM Emmi The EU Commission Fonterra Glanbia Meggle Murray Goulburn Sodiaal USDEC GDC

25 10. Timing and Membership Fee Timing: The 2016 Gira Dairy Club will be completed in September Membership Fee: Founder Membership the 2016 Gira Dairy Club costs Euros 29,000 (before any applicable taxes). It is payable 50% on invoice on start of work and 50% on delivery of the Reports. The fee will increase for Members joining after work has begun. The fee covers: An electronic copy of the full GDC Report (in searchable and printable PDF). Hard copies are available at Euros 500 per copy, including postage. Attendance at the Members Conference on 12 th & 13 th September 2016 The fee includes electronic copies of the presentations and accommodation for the 12 th September and all meals at the Jiva Hill Park hotel for two representatives from each Member organisation. For those staying with us for the visit to the Comté AOP region on September 14 th, the fee includes the trip as well as accommodation on the night of the 13 th. A tailored half-day presentation or workshop by a Gira Associate at the office of Members subscribing to the full programme. Only our travel (rebilled at cost) will be payable by the Member if the presentation takes place in Europe. Partial subscription options are also available: Just the Synthesis volume: Euros 15,000. A half-day presentation is available to purchasers of just the Synthesis for an additional fee. Please ask for details. Country Reports may be purchased individually At a price depending on which country and on the number of Country Reports purchased. GDC