NEESPI GLP RESEARCH. C-Cycle Dynamics in Semi-arid EURASIAN LAND USE SYSTEMS
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1 NEESPI GLP RESEARCH C-Cycle Dynamics in Semi-arid EURASIAN LAND USE SYSTEMS NEESPI RESEARCH on LAND USE GLP Dennis Ojima Xiangming Xiao (UNH) Chuluun Togtohyn (Mng) Sayat Temirbekov (KZ) Tom Riley (CSU) Cindy Keough (CSU)
2 MAIN ISSUES IN THE NORTHERN EURASIAN REGION INTERACTIONS OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE WATER AND LAND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY CHANGE MARKET ACCESS GLP
3 CLIMATE TRENDS 0F THE 1990 S Temperatures of the 1990 s as much as 0.5 o C warmer Precipitation drier by 30% of the 30 year average
4 (Modified by W. Post, ORNL)
5 NPP Trends based on Satellite Analysis (8km AVHRR data product) Analysis of Hicke and Tucker
6 LAND USE ANALYSIS ATMOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT LAND COVER/USE CHEMISTRY TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION WATER TOPOGRAPHY SOIL LAND USE MANAGEMENT CROPS GRAZING LIVESTOCK FOREST URBAN ECOSYSTEM PLANT WATER NUTRIENT SOM REGIONAL ACCOUNTING HUMAN DIMENSION PROPERTY RIGHTS REGULATORY RULES CULTURAL PRACTICES ECONOMICS
7 Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystem Flux Research Network (ChinaFlux) Flux tower clusters are distributed over 8 long-term ecosystem study sites (grassland, alpine, forests, croplands) Xiao, UNH
8 Satellite-based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) CO 2 eddy flux tower PROSPECT - SAIL model Validation Literature GPP = (ε 0 T scalar W scalar P scalar ) FAPAR chl PAR LSWI EVI Surface reflectance (MODIS, VGT) Climate data Xiao, UNH
9 Comparison between GPP est and VI From Li, Z, et al., 2006 GPP = 58.53*NDVI R 2 = 0.73 GPP = 90.20*EVI 8.59 R 2 = 0.85 Xiao, UNH
10 LAND USE PRESSURES
11 Herders and Households in Mongolia Numbers Years Households Households Herders
12 Livestock dynamics in Mongolia GOAT camel horse cattle Years sheep goat
13 Dynamics of the amount of sheep and goat in Kazakhstan (mln. head)
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16 Dynamics of arable land in Kazakhstan
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18 LOSS OF LAND PRODUCTIVTY Amangeldy Rayon ploughed land and sheep/goats Ploughed land '000 ha Northern Kazakhstan Sheep/goats '000 head Years ha ploughed sheep/goats Smailov, Bragin, Temirbekov, Kerven
19 (Millions of ha) Arable Land Dynamics in Kazakhstan Arable land dynamics in Kazakhstan, (1950 to 2004)
20 Fraction of arable land in raions of Kazakhstan, 1950
21 Fraction of arable land in raions of Kazakhstan, 1960
22 Fraction of arable land in raions of Kazakhstan, 1992
23 Fraction of arable land in raions of Kazakhstan, 2000
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27 Plant Production NPP Allocation Crop Yields Soil H 2 O Temp DAYCENT MODEL Soil H 2 O Temp Land Use Vegetation Type Nutrient, H 2 O Inputs Tillage/Harvest Grazing/Burning Irrigation Trace Gas Flux CO 2, CH 4 N 2 O, NO X Soil H 2 O Temp Soil Nutrients NO 3, NH 4, P, S SOM Active Slow Passive Soil H 2 O Temp
28 DAYCENT MODEL NPP CH 4 Uptake V S=soil type V =veg type L=land use S,R h N GAS 0-1 cm 1-4 cm 4-15 cm cm etc. CO 2 PLANT COM PONENTS LEAVES FINE ROOTS H 2 O soil T soil 0-1 cm 1-4 cm 4-15 cm cm etc. NO 3 - N H cm 1-4 cm 4-15 cm cm etc cm PPT,V,L S C:N BRANCHES LARGE WOOD LAR GE ROOTS C:N DEAD PLANT MATERIAL STRUCTURAL METABOLIC Decomp R h S CO 2 C:N SOM ACTIVE yr SLOW yr PASSIVE yr R h S S CO 2 Parton et al Kelly et al Del Grosso et al. 2001
29 China Uzbekistan Russian_Fed Tajikistan Turkmenistan Mongolia Korea_D_P_Rp Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Iran delta_soc N2O dir N2O ind Afghanistan Tg CO2-C equivs yr -1
30 1200 Northern Kazakhstan - Soil Organic C 1100 g C m native grassland wheat cropping - manure wheat cropping - manure and synthetic N
31 50 40 Northern Kazakhstan - GHG net GHG net = N 2 O dir + N2O ind + deltasoc g CO2-C eqivs m native grassland wheat cropping - manure wheat cropping - manure and synthetic N
32 Similarity of agricultural statistics, satellite-derived production highlight importance of crops FAO production (Mt) Satellite NPP (Pg C yr -1 )
33 PROPOSAL OPPORTUNITY Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation (ACCCA) (3-Asia and 6-Africa) Call for Proposals and Terms of Reference DEADLINE: 22 MAY 2006 Ms. Annie Bonnin Roncerel, UNITAR, Dr. Neil Leary, International START
34 THANK YOU
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