Cattle and Beef Markets: 2016 and beyond. Kate Brooks Department of Agricultural Economics

Transcription

1 Cattle and Beef Markets: 2016 and beyond Kate Brooks Department of Agricultural Economics

2 Key Factors in 2016 Crops/Feedstuffs good for the industry. Expansion where we headed? Beef production available supplies & weights. Competing meats- how do they fit? Consumer demand been good will it continue? International trade is it weakening? Other factors/considerations???

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4 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center G-P-02 12/18/15

5 Average Cash Rental Rate for Pasture: (Cow-Calf Pair / Month) 2015 Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Highlights

6 Data Source: USDA-AMS

7 Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 01/04/16

8 Expansion (How Fast, How Long) Weather patterns Drought effects pastures & crops Cow-calf returns Increased beef supply = declining prices

9 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-35 01/04/16

10 53% in 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC, Analysis Kate Brooks Livestock Marketing Information Center

11 47% in 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC, Analysis Kate Brooks Livestock Marketing Information Center

12 Historically High Returns 2014 & ? 2015: $ : $254 Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-66 11/24/15

13 Historically High Returns 2014 & ? 2015: $ : $200 Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-66 01/04/16

14 What happens after high returns?

15 What Happens after High Returns? Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-67 01/04/16

16 Where will cow numbers go from current levels? U.S. Beef Industry Jan 1 Number of Beef Cows

17 USDA Projected Beef Cow Inventory Yr-over-Yr Changes: 2016: +2.4% 2017: +1.4% 2018: +1.6% 2019: +1.6%

18 Regional Beef Cow Numbers % Change Great Plains % West % Corn Belt % S. Plains % Southeast % U.S. 29,085 29, %

19 In the Cattle Markets Feb 16, 2015

20 -19% -8% +0.3%

21 In the Cattle Markets Feb 16, % -15.7% -2.3%

22 Beef Cows, Millions of Head Replacement Heifers, Thousands of Head Nebraska Beef Industry Jan 1 Number of Beef Cows & Heifers Beef Cows: 1.79 million head Heifers (21.8% of beef cow herd) - 2.5% Heifers Beef Cows Data Source: USDA NASS

23 Acres, millions Total Pastureland in Nebraska % decline since Pastureland (Excl crop & woodland) Cropland used pasture Woodland pastured

24 Cropland Used for Pasture in NE 2012: 322,093 acres 63% decline

25 Weaned Calves? Precondition programs/stocker calves VOG vs. COG Economic profit per head Risk level - ROI Cornhusker Economics Article: Annual & Seasonal Price Patterns for Cattle NebGuide G2248: Economic Considerations for Preconditioning Calves for Feedlots

26 Economic Outlook: Feedlots Latest Data: November 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-22 12/15/15

27 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center 01/04/16

28 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-S-18 12/31/15

29 LMIC Quarterly Forecasts (1/04/16) % Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l % Chg. Year Comm'l from Dressed from Beef from Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago (1,000 Head) (Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) 2015 I II III IV b Year I c II III IV Year I II III IV Year

30 LMIC Quarterly Forecasts (1/04/16) Live Sltr. % Chg. Feeder Steer Price Year Steer Price from Southern Plains d Quarter 5-Mkt Avg Year Ago 7-800# 5-600# ($/Cwt.) ($/Cwt.) 2015 I II III IV Year I II III IV Year I II III IV Year

31 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

32 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-06 01/04/16

33 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-07 01/04/16

34 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-12 01/04/16

35 Production/Retail Prices

36 2016: : : +2.2 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

37 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

38 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS Livestock Marketing Information Center M-P-11 11/18/15

39 Other Issues/Thoughts Capacity of Industry vs. Herd Size Disconnects in voting & buying Public Acceptance Global trade issues/acceptance Politics Presidential Election Year

40 Thank You! Website: farm.unl.edu Photo taken by Troy Waltz