Tennessee Market Highlights

Transcription

1 Tennessee Market Highlights March 4, 2016 Number: 10 Trends for the Week Compared to a Week Ago Slaughter Cows Steady to $1 higher Slaughter Bulls Unevenly steady Feeder Steers Under 700 lbs. $1 to $5 higher, Over 700 lbs. $1 to $2 lower Feeder Heifers $2 to $6 higher Feeder Cattle Index Wednesday s index: Fed Cattle The 5-area live price of $ for heifers is up $1.43. The dressed steer price is up $1.45 at $ Corn May closed at $3.58 a bushel, down 1 cent since last Friday. Soybeans May closed at $8.78 a bushel, up 15 cents since last Friday. Wheat May closed at $4.60 a bushel, up 8 cents since last Friday. Cotton May closed at cents per lb, down 0.42 cents per lb since last Friday. Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew P. Griffith FED CATTLE: Fed cattle trade was not well established at press. Live prices looked to be heading toward steady to firmer at a trade near $137 to $138 while dressed trade looked to be heading to $214 or higher. The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $ live for heifers, up $1.43 from last week and $ dressed, up $1.45 from a week ago. A year ago prices were $ live and $ dressed. Feedlot managers continued holding out for stronger finished cattle prices this week compared to a week ago even though live cattle futures were lower to end this week than one week ago. This bodes well for feedlot margins that have been mired in red ink for many months now. Most cattle being marketed are still closing out in the red, but $200 losses are far better than $500 and $600 losses. Cattle being placed on feed are expected to have positive margins at this time. Expected profits on these cattle are average to say the least but any profit will be welcomed over the large losses that feedlots have succumbed to. Finished cattle prices may have a few more dollars of head way as the market heads into April. BEEF CUTOUT: At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $ up $1.02 from Thursday and up $1.93 from last Friday. The Select cutout was $ up $0.37 from Thursday and down $1.73 from last Friday. The Choice Select spread was $8.76 compared to $5.09 a week ago. The beef market is a global market much like most other commodities. Thus, international supply and demand factors influence beef prices domestically and abroad. It is somewhat true that world beef production must be absorbed by the global market for domestic prices to be supported. However, it is integral to remember that not all beef is created equal. United States cattlemen and women are recognized across the world for producing high quality beef in the sense that the beef contains significant quantities of marbling which influence flavor and tenderness of the beef. This high quality beef is sought by consumers in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and others. Alternatively, many of the other leading beef producing countries are known for a more lean beef product due to the methods used to feed cattle which is primarily finishing cattle on forage. Though the U.S. cattle business competes globally, the majority of the product produced in other countries is not a perfect substitute for the highest valued products produced in the United States. OUTLOOK: Calf prices got a boost again this week as grass cattle demand continues to heat up. A few warm days and greening of grass gets buyers and sellers alike excited about the new season. With the trade of a lot of grass cattle this time of year, it is appropriate to look at the expected value of gain over the next 120 to 150 days. The average price for 422 pound steers this week based on the reported weekly auctions was $199 per hundredweight which is an $840 per head purchase price. Assuming steers gain 300 pounds over the next 150 days and are sold in truckload lots the first week of August weighing 722 pounds, the August feeder cattle futures and the historical average Tennessee basis values would indicate the steers could be sold for $ per hundredweight or $1,122 per head. This would indicate a value of gain just shy of 94 cents per pound. Following the same calculation procedure and adding 300 pounds with an expected sell the first week of August, the value of gain for steers purchased weighing between 469 pounds and 671 pounds ranges from 75 cents to 90 cents per pound. The calculated value of gain would indicate a positive margin if feed costs, health costs and death loss are fairly well managed. The margins on stockering cattle or backgrounding home raised cattle are not huge, but historically average profits are obtainable. The prospect for (Continued on page 2)

2 Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith (Continued from page 1) heifers is a little better than for steers. The value of gain for heifers being purchased weighing between 427 pounds and 619 pounds and being grown 270 pounds over the next 150 days ranges from 97 cents per pound to $1.15 per pound. Heifers tend to be a little higher risk than steers due to the potential that they may be bred. However, the risk may be worth the reward in today s market considering the value of gain on heifers is significantly higher than that for steers. This is not only a stocker producer decision as there are many cow-calf producers that could benefit from continuing to grow calves after weaning. Producers are encouraged to evaluate the expected value of gain for different sale dates and different rates of gain in order to make the most informed decision on stocker cattle purchase. ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK: In a meeting in Robertson County this week, a producer asked what the implications of last fall s price collapse should have on this year s decision making in relation to selling calves at weaning or backgrounding those cattle. The answer is that last year s results are not indicative of the expectation of this year s results. The market so far this year is in a much different place than where it was one year ago. Prices are not anticipated to decline this fall to the degree they did last fall. Producers should stay abreast of the market and continually evaluate the decision to continue growing animals or to sell in the near future. Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu or send a letter to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN FRIDAY S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle April $ ; June $ ; August $ ; Feeder cattle - March $ ; April $ ; May $ ; August $ ; March corn closed at $3.55 up $0.01 from Thursday. Milk Futures Thursday March 3, 2016 Month Class III Close Class IV Close Mar Apr May Jun Jul Average Daily Slaughter Cattle Hogs Number of head This week (4 days) 106, ,000 Last week (4 days) 105, ,500 Year ago (4 days) 107, ,250 This week as percentage of Week ago (%) 101% 102% Year ago (%) 100% 100% USDA Box Beef Cutout Value Choice 1-3 Select lbs lbs $/cwt - Thursday Last Week Year ago Change from week ago Change from year ago

3 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Overview Corn and cotton were down; soybeans and wheat were up for the week. In general, export sales have improved in recent weeks, however not as much as required to meet the current USDA annual export forecasts. Currently, the USDA projects 2015/16 marketing year exports (and change from last marketing year) to be: corn billion bushels (down 11%); soybeans 1.69 billion bushels (down 8%); cotton 9.5 million bales (down 16%); and wheat 0.78 billion bushels (down 9%). Unfortunately, all commodities except soybeans would need to increase the current export pace to meet these estimates. As of the week ending February 26, corn, cotton, and wheat exports were on a pace to be down 16%, 21%, and 22%, respectively, when compared to the 2014/15 marketing year. This does not bode well for ending stocks or price. For example, if corn exports are 16% lower instead of 11% that would add 84 million bushels to ending stocks and increase stocks to use from 13.6% to 14.3%, assuming no other changes were made to the current USDA domestic balance sheet. The strong USD, dramatic change in Argentine export policy, and large global supplies of grains, fiber, and oilseeds likely indicates that the USDA will be revising ending stocks up in a future WASDE report. On the positive side markets have likely already factored in such an adjustment. Corn May 2016 corn futures closed at $3.58 down 1 cent since last Friday. May 2016 corn futures traded between $3.54 and $3.61 for the week. Across Tennessee, average basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened at Memphis and Northwest Barge Points and strengthened at Northwest, Lower-middle, and Upper-middle Tennessee. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 9 under to 36 over the May futures contract with an average of 11 over at the end of the week. Ethanol production for the week ending February 26th was 987,000 barrels per day down 7,000 from last week. Ending ethanol stocks were million barrels down 481,000 barrels from last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters from February 19th to 25th were within expectations with net sales of 43.2 million bushels for the 2015/16 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were down from last week at 31.1 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 66% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to a 5-year average of 78%. July 2016 corn futures closed at $3.63 down 1 cent since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 5 cents and 11 cents, respectively. In Tennessee, September 2016 cash forward contracts averaged $3.53 with a range of $3.31 to $3.82. September 2016 corn futures closed at $3.69 down 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $3.80 December 2016 Put Option costing 29 cents establishing a $3.51 futures floor. Soybeans May 2016 soybean futures closed at $8.78 up 15 cents since last Friday. May 2016 soybean futures traded between $8.56 and $8.79. For the week, average soybean basis weakened at Northwest Barge Points, Memphis, Lower-middle, Northwest, and Uppermiddle Tennessee. Basis ranged from 19 under to 13 over the May futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 2 over the May futures contract. Net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 16.2 million bushels for the 2015/16 marketing year and net sales of 0.08 million bushels for the 2016/17 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down from last week at 45.1 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 92% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5-year average of 94%. May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.45 at the end of the week. 3 (Continued on page 4)

4 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith July 2016 soybean futures closed at $8.84 up 14 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 6 cents and 13 cents, respectively. November/September 2016 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.41 at the end of the week. In Tennessee, October/November 2016 cash forward contracts averaged $8.62 with a range of $8.40 to $8.83 at elevators and barge points. November 2016 soybean futures closed at $8.91 up 15 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.00 November 2016 Put Option which would cost 51 cents and set an $8.49 futures floor. Cotton May 2016 cotton futures closed at down 0.42 cents since last Friday. May 2016 cotton futures traded between and cents this week. Adjusted world price (AWP) decreased 1.37 cents to cents per pound. Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 3rd were cents/lb ( ) and cents/lb ( ). Net sales reported by exporters were up from last week with net sales of 173,900 bales for the 2015/16 marketing year and 3,600 bales for the 2016/17 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 197,100 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 75% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 95%. July 2016 cotton futures closed at down 0.62 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were cents and cents, respectively. December 2016 cotton futures closed at down 0.64 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 57 cent December 2016 Put Option costing 3.81 cents establishing a cent futures floor. Wheat May 2016 wheat futures closed at $4.60 up 8 cents since last Friday. May 2016 wheat futures traded between $4.42 and $4.64 this week. May wheat-to-corn price ratio was Net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 12.7 million bushels for the 2015/16 marketing year and 2.4 million bushels for the 2016/17 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 14.3 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 86% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 93%. In Memphis, old crop cash wheat traded between $4.40 and $4.54 for the week. May/Jul and May/Sept future spreads were 6 cents and 16 cents, respectively. 4 (Continued on page 5)

5 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith July 2016 wheat futures closed at $4.66 up 7 cents since last Friday. In Tennessee, June/July cash forward contracts averaged $4.50 with a range of $4.13 to $4.81. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.70 July 2016 Put Option costing 27 cents establishing a $4.43 futures floor. September 2016 wheat futures closed at $4.76 up 7 cents since last Friday. Additional Information: If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu. 5

6 Futures Settlement Prices: Crops & Livestock Friday, February 26, 2016 Thursday, March 3, 2016 Commodity Contract Month Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Soybeans Mar ($/bushel) May Jul Aug Sep Nov Corn Mar ($/bushel) May Jul Sep Dec Mar Wheat Mar ($/bushel) May Jul Sep Dec Soybean Meal Mar ($/ton) May Jul Aug Sep Oct Cotton Mar ( /lb) May Jul Oct Dec Live Cattle Feb ($/cwt) Apr Jun Aug Oct Feeder Cattle Mar ($/cwt) Apr May Aug Sep Oct Market Hogs Apr ($/cwt) May Jun Jul Aug

7 Steers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2 This Week Last Week Year Ago Low High Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Average $/cwt lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Small Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Holstein Steers lbs lbs lbs Slaughter Cows & Bulls Breakers 75-80% Boners 80-85% Lean 85-90% Bulls YG Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Small Frame #1-2 Prices on Tennessee Reported Livestock Auctions for the week ending March 4, lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Cattle Receipts: This week: 7,951 (11) Week ago: 8,168 (11) Year ago: 4,924 (8) 7

8 Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2015, 2016 and 5-year average Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2015, 2016 and 5-year average /2014 Avg /2014 Avg Area Finished Cattle Prices 2015, 2016 and 5-year average Tennessee Slaughter Cow Prices Breakers 75-80% 2015, 2016 and 5-year average 2010/2014 Avg / Prices Paid to Farmers by Elevators Friday, February 26, 2016 Thursday, March 3, 2016 Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High $/bushel No. 2 Yellow Soybeans Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Yellow Corn Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Wheat Memphis

9 Video Sales East Tennessee Livestock Center - March 2, load out of 58 home-raised steers; est. wt. 835 lbs., wt. range 750 to 900 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 836 lbs.; 95% L&M-1s, 5% L&M-2s; medium to medium-plus flesh; 60% Chax/Smoky, 40% Black/BWF; Feed: pasture plus hay self-feeder receiving corn gluten mix; double-vaccinated; dewormed; gathered early a.m., hauled 8 miles, weighed on gooseneck trailers on certified scales; 2% shrink $ load out of 85 heifers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 775 lbs., wt. range 725 to 825 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 776 lbs.; 100% M-1s; medium flesh; 90% Black/BWF, 10% Chax/Smoky; Feed: pasture receiving corn silage/corn gluten based ration; vaccinated twice; dewormed; gathered early a.m., hauled 8 miles, weighed on grounds after sort; 2% shrink $ load out of 70 Holstein steers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 900 lbs., wt. range 825 to 975 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 901 lbs.; 95% #1s, 5% #2s; medium flesh; Feed: pasture plus hay receiving silage daily; double-vaccinated; dewormed twice; implanted; gathered early a.m., hauled 8 miles, weighed on grounds after sort; 2% shrink $ load out of 150 Holstein steers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 900 lbs., wt. range 850 to 950 lbs.; Slide: $0.05 on first 50 lbs., over 51 lbs. $0.07 back to first lb. over 901 lbs.; 100% #1s; medium flesh; Feed: pasture receiving a ground hay/corn gluten/crushed corn mix; vaccinated twice; dewormed twice; gathered early a.m., hauled 25 miles, weighed on grounds after sort; 1% shrink $ Video Board Sale and Graded Sales 3/2/16 Browning Livestock Cattle Auction, Lafayette, TN Receipts: 2,501 VA = Value Added Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg VA VA VA VA VA VA Video Board Sale and Graded Sales Bulls: Med & Lg /2/16 Warren County Livestock Receipts: 1,545 (Prices for Blk, BWF, CharX) Steers: Med & Lg 1 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs and over and over Steers: Med & Lg 2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Self-Reported and Self-Graded Livestock Markets 3/1/16 TN Livestock Producers Fayetteville Receipts: 577 (232 graded & grouped) Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs (Continued on page 10)

10 Beef Industry News Featured Article from Dairy Herd Management Farm weakness could spread in 2016 By Reuters February 26, 2016 Weakness in U.S. agriculture could spill over into other parts of rural economies, with macroeconomic headwinds exacerbating the downturn caused by the growth of global crop supplies outpacing demand, an official at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said on Friday. "As you see tighter credit, as you see reductions in income, as you see fewer... jobs available on the farm due to some of these downturns," said Nathan Kauffman, assistant vice president and Omaha branch executive at the Kansas City Fed. "You do see the potential there for some declines in Main Street activity." A strong U.S. dollar as well as softening demand from key importer China amid intense stock market volatility there will continue to pressure the U.S. agriculture sector in 2016, added Kauffman, who was speaking in a speech at the U.S. Agriculture Department's annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. The dollar has notched particularly big gains against Russian, Brazilian and Argentine currencies, further chilling overseas demand for U.S. supplies due to increased competition from those countries. Most forecasters expect the supply glut to continue to weigh on prices. "There seems to be less uncertainty about where things are headed," Kauffman said. But the struggles in the farm economy, which Kauffman described as persisting, intensifying and gradual, still do not rival the collapse of the 1980s. "I want to be careful to not suggest that the sky is falling because I do not think we are there," he said. The interest rate environment, land values and debt to asset ratios were still much more favorable than a generation ago. And a strong farm economy earlier in the decade provided many producers with a buffer against the current downturn. Self-Reported and Self-Graded Livestock Markets 3/1/16 Woodbury Livestock Market, LLC Receipts: 118 (*Weaned/Vaccinated) Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs * lbs lbs * lbs * lbs * * lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs /1/16 Somerville Livestock Sales Receipts: 108 Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 314 Morgan Hall 2621 Morgan Circle USDA / Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service