Mukand S. Babel Professor, Water Engineering and Management (WEM) Director, CoE for Sustainable Development in the Context of Climate Change (SDCC)

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1 Workshop on Water and Green Growth February 2015, UNCC, Bangkok, Thailand Mukand S. Babel Professor, Water Engineering and Management (WEM) Director, CoE for Sustainable Development in the Context of Climate Change (SDCC)

2 Regional Forum on Climate Change (RFCC) Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Societies: Bridging Science, Practice and Policy Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Conference Center, Thailand July 1 3, 2015 Objectives: Provide a platform for discussions to ease the translation of science into practice and policy Offer ASEAN negotiators a venue to build positions of increased ambition prior to the COP21 Core contents: Presentations on Contemporary scientific research on climate change related topics On-the-ground evidence (case studies) of climate change mitigation and adaptation Current and proposed national (or regional and international) policy initiatives Special content: Science and climate change-call for research proposals COP21 media training ASEAN scholars Program Asian Working Group on Climate Change round-table discussions (closed) Side events (e.g. LoCARNet)

3 Regional Forum on Climate Change (RFCC) Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Societies: Bridging Science, Practice and Policy Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Conference Center, Thailand Keynote speakers: July 1 3, 2015 José Ramos-Horta Nicolas Hulot (to be confirmed) Saleemul Huq Nobel Laureate, 1996 Climate Adviser to French President Burtoni Award Winner, 2007 Important dates: Deadline for receiving abstracts: 15 April 2015 Deadline for applications for ASEAN Scholars Program: 15 March 2015 More information: Website: rfcc2015@ait.asia

4 OUTLINES Sustainability in Water and Agriculture (2) Facts and Figures Challenges Approaches for Sustainability in Water and Agriculture Water management practices Water footprint Agriculture practices Food production chain Water governance Capacity building Coping with climate change

5 Facts and Figures Population Growth Between 1900 and 2000, the population grew by a factor of four, but freshwater withdrawal grew by a factor of nine if current trends continue, by 2030 two-thirds of the world s population will live in areas of high water stress (3)

6 Facts and Figures Poverty and share of agriculture in economy and employment Contribution of Agriculture to GDP (%) Poverty based on $1.25 PPP (%) Agricultural Employment (% of total) Bangladesh (1989) (2005) Cambodia (1994) 18.6(2009) 78(1998) 54 China (2009) India (1988) 61(1994) 51 Philippines (1988) 18.4(2009) Vietnam (1993) 18.9(2008) 70(1996) 48 Sri Lanka (1991) PPP = purchasing power parity (4) Decreasing trend of contribution of agriculture to GDP in Asian Countries Two faces of Asia Progress and prosperity Continued poverty (FAO, 2014)

7 Facts and Figures Undernourishment About 1 in 9 of the world s population (805 million people) were chronically undernourished in (5) Though 42% reduction in the developing regions is observed between and , still about 1 in 8 people of the overall population, remain chronically undernourished (FAO, 2014)

8 Facts and Figures Dietary transformation in Asia (kg/capita/year) East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia Rice Stagnant Wheat Fruit (excluding wine) Consumption of horticultural 49.8 products 38.3 in East Asia Vegetables rose almost fivefold between and Continued growth, urbanization and commercialization are having profound impacts on both food consumption and production patterns in Asia (6) Source: FAOSTAT.

9 Facts and Figures Dietary transformation in Asia (kg/capita/year) East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia Poultry Intake 2.8 of meat and 1.6 poultry is rising Meat Fish Weaker dietary transformation in South Asia may be linked to the depth of poverty in the region (7) Source: FAOSTAT.

10 Facts and Figures Changes in irrigated area in Asia in against potential Irrigation development in East Asia compares well with its potential, whereas it lags behind in both South and Southeast Asia. Changing socio-economic priorities, high development costs, land acquisition and resettlement issues, and environmental limitations limit the scope for further expansion of irrigated areas (8) FAO,

11 Challenges Global water stress International rivers and some facts Continent Rivers Africa 61 Asia 54 Europe 71 N America 39 S America 38 Total 263 Stefano et al. (2010) (9) Percentage within International basins No. of countries Frontier Economics (2012) Home to more than 40% of the world s population Over 90% population lives in countries that share basins Nearly one half of the earth s land surface 60% of the global freshwater flow; remaining from groundwater International river- aquifer interaction Top 10 international basins contribute 10% of world s GDP in 2010; 25% of world s GDP in out these 10 basins will face water scarcity by 2050

12 Challenges Expected increase of Global population from 7 billion in 2011 to 8.3 billion in 2030, To feed this growing population, food production need to be doubled with the next 40 years Sufficient food and water to be supplied as a basic need to alleviate poverty and improve livelihood of the poor (10 Growing Population Estimated Change in Population between 2010 and 2050 (millions) LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean (ADB, 2013)

13 Challenges Expected trends in food preferences Increased food demand and changing diets: driven by rising incomes and other shifts, changing diets will increase demand for resource-intensive products such as meat Meat consumption more than doubles in East Asia by 2050 (11) Global demand for meat will double from 229 million tons in to 465 million tons in (IWMI, 2007)

14 Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply 1 and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gains Municipal& Domestic Industry Agriculture 2% CAGR 4, ,100 6, ,500 4,500 Agriculture demand: India 2,800 1,195 B m 3 Sub-Saharan Africa 820 B m 3 China 420 B m Relevant supply quan tity is much lower that the absolute renewable water availabil ity in nature Billion m 3, 154 basins/regions -40% 4, ,500 Groundwater Surface water (12) Existing 2030 withdrawals 2 withdrawals 3 Basins with deficits Basins with surplus 1 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements 2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI 3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gaiins between Existing accessible, reliable, sustainable supply 1 SOURCE: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case

15 Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply 1 and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gains 2% CAGR 6, ,500 2,800 Billion m 3, 154 basins/regions -40% Municipal& Domestic Industry Agriculture 4, ,100 4, Relevant supply quan tity is much lower that the absolute renewable water availabil ity in nature 4, ,500 Groundwater Surface water (13) Existing 2030 withdrawals 2 withdrawals 3 Basins with deficits Basins with surplus 1. Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements 2. Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI 3. Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gains between Existing accessible, reliable, sustainable supply 1 Source: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case

16 Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply 1 and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gains 2% CAGR 6, ,500 2,800 Billion m 3, 154 basins/regions -40% Municipal& Domestic Industry Agriculture 4, ,100 4, Relevant supply quan tity is much lower that the absolute renewable water availabil ity in nature 4, ,500 Groundwater Surface water Existing 2030 withdrawals 2 withdrawals 3 Basins with deficits Basins with surplus 1. Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements 2. Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI 3. Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gaiins between (14) Existing accessible, reliable, sustainable supply 1 Source: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case

17 Challenges Billion m 3 Business-as-usual approaches will not meet demand for raw water 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 3,000 Today Demand with noproductivity improvements Historical improvements inwater productivity 1 Remaining gap Increase in supply 2 under business-as-usual Existing accessible, reliable supply 3 Portion of gap Percent 20% 60% 20% If these trends are insufficient to close the gap: Depletion of fossil reserves Water for the environment is drained Demand will go unmet (15) Climate Change will exacerbate the problem Source: 2030 Water Resources Group - Global Supply and Demand model; IFPRI; FAOSTAT

18 Challenges Trends in agricultural water withdrawals (16) (FAO, 2014)

19 Challenges Fuel crops vs. food crops (17)

20 Challenges Exacerbation by climate change Climate change will affect all facets of society and the environment, with strong implications for water and agriculture now and in the future (18)

21 Challenges Exacerbation by climate change (19) (ADB, 2009)

22 Challenges Climate Change: Local Insights Impact on runoff (% change) Basin, Country Baseline A2 B2 (m 3 /s) Early Mid Late Early Mid Late Nam Ou, Laos Bagmati, Nepal Koshi, Nepal Jhelum, Pakistan *For Koshi results are presented for B1 scenario instead of B2 (20)

23 Monthly average flow (m 3 /s) Monthly average flow (m 3 /s) Challenges Climate Change: Local Insights Impact on river flow in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal 1980s A2 2020s A2 2050s A2 2080s A2 Source: Babel et al. (2013) TAAC Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (21) s B2 2020s B2 2050s B2 2080s B2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Increase in flow is expected to be higher during May-Sept.

24 Challenges Climate change: Local insights Irrigation water demand in Bagmati basin, Nepal (Change in %) Physiographic region Baseline A2 B2 MCM Early Mid Late Early Mid Late Rice High Hills Middle Hills Terai Wheat High Hills Middle Hills Terai (22) Source: Shrestha et al. (2013) J.Wat. Clim. Change

25 Challenges Climate change: Local insights Impact on crop yield (Change in %) Basin, Country Baseline A2 B2 kg/ha Early Mid Late Early Mid Late Rice Mun, Thailand 2, Chi, Thailand 2, Sikkim, India 3, Maize Uganda (March-May) Uganda (Sept-Nov) 3, , Yield is expected to decrease in future periods in Thailand and India In Uganda, during Sept-Nov season Maize yield is projected to increase (23)

26 (24) Challenges Summary The growing population to be supplied with sufficient food and water as a basic need to alleviate poverty and improve livelihood of the poor. (increasing crop per drop) Irrigated agriculture received large financial investments and subsidies not likely to be repeated in forthcoming decades. (new irrigation financial model) Water diversion to irrigated agriculture will be under increasing stress and face competition with demanded shares claimed by other powerful water users. (increasing water productivity) Necessity to reserve water to sustain the environment is recognized and with a priority factor for basin water management. (integrated water resources management) Addressing climate change to avoid its adverse impacts on water and agriculture. (adaptation and mitigation)

27 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Approaches for green economy Water management practices Water footprint Agriculture practices Food production chain Water governance Capacity building Coping with climate change (25)

28 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Water management practices 1 Improvement of irrigation efficiency and small scale irrigation technologies (drip irrigation) Increase Increase water productivity the productivity in agriculture of water A 35% increase in water productivity could reduce additional crop water consumption from 80% to 20% Account Upgrade for volumes rain-fed of systems water in the food a little supply water chain can go a long way Small Scale Irrigation Shift in focus from supply-side to demand-side approaches Private and informal irrigation is important in terms of both food production and food security Adapt yesterday s irrigation to tomorrow s needs Efficient collection of runoff and soil-based storage of moisture by land Modernization management practices 6 Adoption of new filtration technologies (such as nano-technology) to reuse grey-water for agriculture. (26) (Earthscan, 2007)

29 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Water management practices 1 Improvement of irrigation efficiency and small scale irrigation technologies (drip irrigation) 2 Increase water productivity in agriculture 3 4 Improvement with respect to evapotranspiration Account for volumes of water in the food supply chain Improving the productivity of water deliveries Increasing the productivity of livestock Shift in focus from supply-side to demand-side approaches Increasing productivity in fisheries and aquaculture 6 5 Efficient collection Applying of integrated runoff and approaches soil-based storage increasing of moisture the by land management value per unit practices of water Adopting an integrated basin perspective for Adoption of new understanding filtration technologies water productivity (such as nano-technology) tradeoffs to reuse grey-water for agriculture. (27)

30 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Water management practices 1 Improvement of irrigation efficiency and small scale irrigation technologies (drip irrigation) 2 Increase water productivity in agriculture 3 Account for volumes of water in the food supply chain 4 Shift in focus from supply-side to demand-side approaches 5 Efficient collection of runoff and soil-based storage of moisture by land management practices 6 Adoption of new filtration technologies (such as nanotechnology) to reuse grey-water for agriculture (28)

31 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Reduction in Water Footprint Volume of Rainwater Evaporated Volume of Surface or Groundwater Evaporated Volume of Polluted Water Decrease green Water Footprint (WF) by increasing green Water Productivity (WP) in both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture o o Closing yield gap In-situ soil and water management techniques Increase total production from rain-fed agriculture (29) Decrease blue WF by increasing blue WP in irrigated agriculture o Increasing irrigation efficiency o Appropriate timing and quantification of water delivery o Replacing original crop choice with other best crop fitting climate conditions o Economic Instruments for agricultural blue water demand management including appropriate pricing Decrease global blue WF Reduced use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides; more effective application. Grey WF is zero for organic farming (Vanham and Bidoglio, 2013)

32 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Agricultural practices Agro-ecosystem approach Efficiency of smallholders: push (access to technology) and pull mechanisms (access to markets) Up-scaling of successful local solutions (from small-holders). Promotion of urban agriculture, since it has the advantage of reducing the transmission chain between soil and mouth. Cultivation of local plants having potential to capture benefits from erratic rainfall (30)

33 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Food production chain Efficiency improvements throughout the value food chain Food loss reduction Attention to the water-energy-food-climate nexus. Recognize potential tradeoffs between land and water use, GHG emission, biodiversity etc. (31)

34 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Water governance A dialogue between water managers, agricultural planners and stakeholders including private sector is needed to identify and properly implement solutions. The ecosystem approach to water management A holistic water governance framework is required whereby water is managed across sectors, with appropriate institutions that have the authority to take this holistic approach. (32)

35 Sustainability: Water and Agriculture Capacity building Consumer education and public awareness on water efficiency and water quality concepts Change consumer behavior to build a green society. Learning and knowledge-sharing on management practices such as conservation agriculture, nutrient management, integrated pest management, groundwater management and irrigation scheduling. Involvement of local people in planning agricultural water management programs (33)

36 Coping with Climate Change Strategies Investments Land, water and crop management Policies, institutions and capacity building On-farm water storage: water harvesting Groundwater development Modernization of irrigation infrastructure Breeding for resistance to droughts and floods Dam construction/ enhancement (34) Changing cropping pattern and diversification Adapting cropping calendar Alternate wet and dry rice production system Irrigation scheme operation improvement Integrated water resources management Climate-Smart Agriculture Climate proofing of I&D infrastructure Re-allocation of water (between or within sectors) Strengthening land/water right access Crop insurances Improved weather forecasting capacity (FAO, 2013)

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