Tennessee Market Highlights

Transcription

1 Tennessee Market Highlights July 20, 2018 Number: 29 Trends for the Week Compared to a Week Ago Slaughter Cows $1 to $2 lower Slaughter Bulls $1 lower Feeder Steers Under 500 pounds $1 to $2 higher; Over 500 pounds steady to $2 lower Feeder Heifers Steady to $3 lower Feeder Cattle Index Wednesday s index: $ Fed Cattle The 5-area live price was $ The dressed price was not reported. Corn September closed at $3.55 a bushel, up 14 cents since last Friday. Soybeans August closed at $8.49 a bushel, up 31 cents since last Friday. Wheat September closed at $5.16 a bushel, up 19 cents since last Friday. Cotton December closed at cents per lb, down 0.76 cents since last Friday. Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew P. Griffith FED CATTLE: Fed cattle trade was not well established at press. Asking prices on a live basis were mainly $114 to $115 while bid prices were mainly $108 to $111. The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $ live, up $3.11 from last week and $ dressed, down $2.86 from a week ago. A year ago prices were $ live and $ dressed. Fed cattle trade continues to be delayed until late in the week. Maybe cattle feeders and packers were waiting on the cattle on feed report. It just so happened that the pre-report estimate averages hit the nail on the head this month. Maybe it was the July 1 cattle inventory report they were waiting on to see how many animals are actually in the pipeline to enter feedlots in the third and fourth quarter of Maybe it had nothing to do with USDA reports at all, and it all had to do with securing the best price possible. No matter the reason, trading cattle the past couple of weeks has been more difficult than sucking a bowling ball through a plastic straw. The solution to the problem, get a bigger straw or a smaller bowling ball. They will probably compromise. BEEF CUTOUT: At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $ down $0.57 from Thursday and down $0.80 from last Friday. The Select cutout was $ down $0.17 from Thursday and down $2.33 from last Friday. The Choice Select spread was $7.17 compared to $8.12 a week ago. The Choice boxed beef cutout is running about $8 lower than this time last year which may or may not be cause for concern in the packing and beef industry. The lower cutout value is being led by lower prices in the short plate, round, and chuck primal which are trading approximately $16, $14, and $8 lower respectively compared to the same time period last year. The short plate only makes up about 8 percent of the hot carcass by weight but the round and chuck make up approximately, 22 and 27 percent of hot carcass weight respectively which is the primary reason the Choice cutout is struggling to compete with year ago prices. The rib and flank primal are trading about $2 lower than last year while the loin primal is $6 to $7 lower than last year. The rib and loin primal contain the highest valued cuts and they comprise approximately 10 and 17 percent of the hot carcass respectively. The flank primal makes up about 5 percent of the carcass. The brisket, which makes up about 4 percent of the carcass is the only primal to have year over year price gains. OUTLOOK: It is difficult to be discouraged by current feeder cattle prices if one is on the selling side. Feeder cattle futures have been showing strength and the cash market is in tow though at a slower pace. Based on Tennessee weekly auction averages, steer prices are steady to $2 lower compared to a week ago while heifer prices are steady to $3 lower with most cattle being steady. Since the inception of the August 2018 feeder cattle contract, the contract price has traded in a range from a low of $135 per hundredweight on April 4th to a contract high of just over $159 which occurred November More recently, the August feeder cattle contract has been trading in the low to mid $150s which is $15 to $18 higher than where it was trading two months ago. This same pattern exists for most of the fall and winter marketing months which puts price risk management at the top of mind. Many livestock producers begin thinking about price risk management after prices have taken a plunge and are at a low spot. Alternatively, price risk management for marketing cattle or any commodity should be addressed when prices are strong. The current market is providing a favorable opportunity to lock in a profitable price or at a minimum set a price floor for fall and winter marketings. The (Continued on page 2)

2 Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith (Continued from page 1) one issue is that feeder cattle basis is relatively weak which in this case means cash prices have not increased at the same pace as feeder cattle futures. The weak basis could actually be perceived as a positive from a price risk management standpoint for deferred marketings. For producers hedging the sale of cattle during the fall and winter months, a basis value that stays the same does no harm and a basis that strengthens would mean cash prices would increase more than futures if the price increases and cash prices would decrease less than futures if the price decreases. The moral of the story is to consider price risk management tools now for fall and winter feeder cattle sales. manage price risk ( publications/documents/w320-c.pdf). Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu or send a letter to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN FRIDAY S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle August $ ; October $ ; December $ ; Feeder cattle August $ ; September $ ; October $ ; November $ ; September corn closed at $3.55 up $0.04 from Thursday. The July cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of July 1, 2018 totaled million head, up 4.3% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting an increase of 4.3%. June placements in feedlots totaled 1.79 million head, up 1.3% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements up 1.3%. June marketing s totaled 2.01 million head up 0.9% from 2017 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings up 0.8%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds up 8.0%, 700 to 899 pounds down 6.4%, and 900 pounds and over up 7.5%. ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK: Last week, a producer posed a question concerning feeder cattle basis. The specific question was in relation to why basis on 800 to 900 pounds steers was so wide relative to previous years since demand for feeder cattle appears fairly strong. For those unfamiliar with basis, basis is a value calculated by subtracting the futures price from the local cash price. Thus, a basis value can be calculated for each class and weight of feeder cattle at any point. Basis values do have a seasonal component to them meaning they change throughout the year. However, the expectation is basis in a particular time of year to be fairly consistent across years. Basis variation from year to year does exist, but its variation is generally smaller than price variation which can help with price expectations. For more information on livestock basis, the University of Tennessee has two publications, one with historical basis values for Tennessee ( Documents/D34.pdf) and one concerning the use of basis to Milk Futures Thursday, July 19, 2018 Month Class III Close Class IV Close July Aug Sept Oct Nov Average Daily Slaughter Cattle Hogs Number of head This week (4 days) 119, ,500 Last week (4 days) 119, ,750 Year ago (4 days) 114, ,000 This week as percentage of Week ago (%) 99% 100% Year ago (%) 104% 105% USDA Box Beef Cutout Value Choice 1-3 Select lbs lbs $/cwt - Thursday Last Week Year ago Change from week ago Change from year ago

3 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Overview Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week. Has a bottom been established in soybean and corn markets? The current low in the December corn contract is $3.50 ¼ established on July 12. The current low in the November soybean contract is $8.26 ¼ established on July 16. For corn, the supply and demand fundamentals paint a much more bullish picture than soybeans. For example, global corn stocks are projected down over 1.5 billion bushels year-over-year, while global soybean stocks are projected up 82 million bushels. Global demand for both commodities remains strong, however trade disputes continue to weigh heavily on agricultural commodities. Approximately 47% of US soybean production and 15% of corn production are exported annually, as such disruptions to global trade adversely affects soybean prices more than corn prices. At this point in time, a swift resolution to the trade war with China appears unlikely. Whether a bottom has been established in corn and soybeans will depend on further escalation of the trade war and how weather progresses between now and harvest. Currently, a stronger argument can be made for a bottom in the corn market than the soybean market. Cotton markets are establishing a trading range of cents. For Tennessee producers this represents a good opportunity to secure price on additional production for two reasons: 1) the current prices are above most producers breakeven and will result in a profitable outcome; and 2) current growing conditions favor above trend line yields (92% of the Tennessee cotton crop is rated good-to-excellent), reducing production risk. Corn Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at Memphis, Northwest Barge Points, Northwest, Lower-middle, and Upper-middle Tennessee. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 21 under to 30 over the September futures contract with an average of 3 over at the end of the week. September 2018 corn futures closed at $3.55, up 14 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2018 corn futures traded between $3.38 and $3.55. Corn net sales reported by exporters from July 6-12 were above expectations with net sales of 25.2 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year and 30.5 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were down 7% compared to last week at 50.9 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 96% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to a 5-year average of 102%. Ethanol production for the week ending July 13 was million barrels per day, up 31,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were million barrels, down 625,000 barrels. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 14 and 25 cents, respectively. The Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 72% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; and corn silking at 63% compared to 37% last week, 37% last year, and a 5-year average of 37%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 83% goodto-excellent and 2% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 91% compared 83% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 83%; and corn doughing at 41% compared to 25% last week, 28% last year, and a 5-year average of 23%. In Tennessee, September 2018 corn cash forward contracts averaged $3.43 with a range of $3.26 to $3.71. December 2018 corn futures closed at $3.69, up 15 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $3.70 December 2018 Put Option costing 18 cents establishing a $3.52 futures floor. March 2019 corn futures closed at $3.80, up 14 cents since last Friday. (Continued on page 4) 3

4 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Soybeans Average soybean basis weakened at Memphis, Northwest Barge Points, Northwest, and Upper-middle Tennessee and strengthened at Lower-middle Tennessee. Basis ranged from 36 under to 16 over the August futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 5 under the August futures contract. August 2018 soybean futures closed at $8.49, up 31 cents since last Friday. For the week, August 2018 soybean futures traded between $8.10 and $8.53. Net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 9.3 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year and 22.5 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 18% compared to last week at 22.2 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 102% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5-year average of 102%. September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.41 at the end of the week. Aug/Sep and Aug/Nov future spreads were 6 and 15 cents, respectively. September 2018 soybean futures closed at $8.55, up 31 cents since last Friday. The Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 69% good-to-excellent and 8% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 65% compared to 47% last week, 49% last year, and a 5-year average of 45%; and soybeans setting pods at 26% compared to 11% last week, 15% last year, and a 5-year average of 11%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 84% good-to-excellent and 1% poor-to-very poor; soybeans emerged at 97% compared to 96% last week, 96% last year, and a 5- year average of 93%; soybeans blooming at 58% compared to 42% last week, 55% last year, and a 5-year average of 38%; and soybeans setting pods at 25% compared to 10% last week, 20 last year, and a 5-year average of 13%. In Tennessee, Oct/Nov 2018 soybean cash contracts average $8.32 with a range of $8.05 to $8.52. November 2018 soybean futures closed at $8.64, up 30 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing an $8.80 November 2018 Put Option which would cost 47 cents and set an $8.33 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2018 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.34 at the end of the week. Cotton Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for July 19 were 86.8 cents/lb ( ) and cents/lb ( ). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 3.33 cents to 79.5 cents. Net sales reported by exporters were down from last week with net sales of 12,900 bales for the 2017/18 marketing year and 247,700 bales for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 12% compared to last week at 227,300 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 108% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 106%. 4 (Continued on page 5)

5 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith The Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 41% good-to-excellent and 28% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 72% compared to 59% last week, 69% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%; and cotton setting bolls at 31% compared to 21% last week, 25% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 92% good-to-excellent and 0% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 93% compared to 80% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 72%; and cotton setting bolls at 33% compared to 20 last week, 26% last year, and a 5-year average of 19%. December 2018 cotton futures closed at 87.08, down 0.76 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2018 cotton futures traded between 86.2 and 88.8 cents. Dec/ Mar and Dec/Dec cotton futures spreads were cents and cents, respectively. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing an 88 cent December 2018 Put Option costing 4.85 cents establishing an cent futures floor. March 2019 cotton futures closed at 86.96, down 0.66 cents since last Friday. December 2019 cotton futures closed at 80.25, down 1.09 cents since last Friday. Wheat In Tennessee, July 2018 wheat cash contracts ranged from $4.78 to $5.20 for the week. Wheat net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 11.0 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the week were up 52% compared to last week at 16.0 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 24% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2018/19 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 37%. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 74% compared to 63% last week, 74% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%; spring wheat condition at 80% good-to-excellent and 4% poor-to-very poor; and spring wheat headed at 93% compared to 81% last week, 89% last year, and a 5- year average of 85%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 100% compared to 98% last week. September 2018 wheat futures closed at $5.16, up 19 cents since last Friday. September 2018 wheat futures traded between $4.86 and $5.19 this week. September wheat-to-corn price ratio was Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 17 cents and 44 cents, respectively. December 2018 wheat futures closed at $5.33, up 21 cents since last Friday. In Tennessee, June/July 2019 wheat cash contracts ranged from $5.30 to $5.45 for the week. July 2019 wheat futures closed at $5.60, up 18 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2019 Put Option costing 52 cents establishing a $5.18 futures floor. Additional Information: Links for data presented: U.S. Export Sales - USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production - EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates - Upland Cotton Reports - Tennessee Crop Progress - U.S. Crop Progress - USDA AMS: Market News - If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu. 5

6 Futures Settlement Prices: Crops & Livestock Friday, July 13, 2018 Thursday, July 19, 2018 Commodity Contract Month Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Soybeans Jul 8.14 ($/bushel) Aug Sep Nov Jan Mar Corn Jul 3.30 ($/bushel) Sep Dec Mar May Jul Wheat Jul 4.81 ($/bushel) Sep Dec Mar May Soybean Meal Jul 328 ($/ton) Aug Sep Oct Dec Jan Cotton Oct ( /lb) Dec Mar May Jul Live Cattle Aug ($/cwt) Oct Dec Feb Apr Feeder Cattle Aug ($/cwt) Sep Oct Nov Jan Mar Market Hogs Jul ($/cwt) Aug Oct Dec Feb

7 Steers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2 This Week Last Week Year Ago Low High Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Average $/cwt lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Small Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Holstein Steers lbs lbs lbs Slaughter Cows & Bulls Breakers 75-80% Boners 80-85% Lean 85-90% Bulls YG Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Small Frame #1-2 Prices on Tennessee Reported Livestock Auctions for the week ending July 20, lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Cattle Receipts: This week: 7,715 (11) Week ago: 7,604 (9) Year ago: 7,127 (11) 7

8 Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2017, 2018 and 5-year average Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steers Prices 2017, 2018 and 5-year average /2016 Avg / 2016 Avg Area Finished Cattle Prices 2017, 2018 and 5-year average Tennessee Slaughter Cow Prices Breakers 75-80% 2017, 2018 and 5-year average 2012/2016 Avg Prices Paid to Farmers by Elevators Friday, July 13, 2018 Thursday, July 19, 2018 Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High $/bushel No. 2 Yellow Soybeans Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Yellow Corn Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Wheat Memphis

9 Video Board Sales, Video Sales & Loads East Tennessee Livestock Center - July 18, load out of 80 steers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 820 lbs.; 95% L&M-1s, 5% L&M-2s; medium flesh; 100% Black/BWF; $ Graded Sales East Tennessee Livestock Center, Sweetwater, TN Graded Holstein Steer Weighted Average Report for Friday Jul 13, 2018 Cattle Receipts: 351 For complete report: Self-Reported and Self-Graded Markets 7/17/18 TN Livestock Producers Fayetteville Receipts: 594 (329 graded & grouped) Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs /15/18 Morris Brothers Stockyard, Pikeville, TN Receipts: 111 Last Week: Last Year: 109 Steers: Heifers: lbs Under 200 lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Over 799 lbs lbs lbs Self-Reported and Self-Graded Markets lbs lbs lbs /13/18 Coffee County Livestock Market Graded Goat and Sheep Sale Manchester, TN Receipts: 446 (329 Goats; 94 Sheep; 23 Other) Next Sale July 27, 2018 Goats sold per hundred weight (cwt) unless otherwise noted, weights, actual or estimated. Slaughter Classes: Kids Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Feeders Replacement Nanny Goats Yearlings Small Nannies Medium Nannies Thin Large Billies Billies Thin SHEEP: Slaughter Lambs-Includes all breeds, sold per hundred weight (cwt). Choice and Prime lbs Choice and Prime lbs Good Choice and Prime lbs Good Choice and Prime lbs Good Choice and Prime lbs Choice and Prime lbs Feeders lbs Replacement Ewes: Yearlings lbs Ewes lbs Ewes Fat Bulls: Under 200 lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs

10 Beef Industry News Featured Article from Progressive Cattleman July deworming: An annual profit opportunity Contributed by Gil Myers 12 July 2018 July deworming is a frequently overlooked opportunity to control nematode (worm) infections and increase calf weight gains. Many cow-calf producers deworm their cows in the spring. The addition of a July deworming of cows and calves has been shown to provide seasonal control of worm infections in late winter- or early spring-born calves. Calves gain more weight and are heavier at weaning as a result of improved worm control during summer grazing. The economic benefit of at least 30 pounds more calf at weaning through seasonal control of worm infections can be achieved at a cost of about $7.85 per cow-calf pair for a July deworming. Using a conservative weaned calf value of $1.70 per pound, this increased gain provides a $5 to $1 return one of the best investments available to commercial cow-calf producers. Worm larvae survive on pasture over winter; as a result, suckling calves become infected as soon as they begin to graze spring grass. By 3 to 4 months old, calves have acquired economic levels of worm infection that typically slow growth until calves are weaned and removed from pasture. These calves appear normal, but worm infections are reducing live-weight gain by as much as one-half pound per day. choice minerals now provide a practical and increasingly popular means to deworm cow-calf herds without working the cattle. All of these products are designed to be consumed over a short three- to six-day period. Following consumption of the medicated mineral, producers resume their regular free-choice mineral program. To ensure cows and calves all have access to medicated mineral, it is recommended that the medicated free-choice mineral be offered in 8- to 10-foot-long poly troughs. Larger herds should be provided several troughs. By 3 to 4 months old, beef calves routinely consume mineral because they are growing bone and tissue, and can successfully be dewormed along with the cows. Producers working their herds in July have a variety of individually administered dewormers available to them. In summary, July deworming of late winter- or early springborn calves and their cows is a practical management practice that provides cow-calf producers the opportunity to profitably produce heavier calves. Gil Myers, Ph.D., is a livestock parasitologist who has researched and published about the control and economics of cattle parasites. Myers is an independent consultant who shares the insights he has learned from both scientific and practical cow-calf management experience. July deworming of cows and calves is listed in the 2018 University of Kentucky Beef IRM Calendar as a timely management practice for spring-calving herds. The reason July deworming is so timely is that treatment of calves and cows provides a twofold benefit: First, worm egg shedding is dramatically reduced for several months, thereby preventing contamination of the pasture with infective larvae and reducing future infections. Second, worm infections are removed, thereby boosting appetites and calf growth. Seasonal worm control in cattle can be compared to controlling thistles if we prevent thistles from going to seed, we prevent future thistle problems. For example, 50 calves, if not dewormed, can shed 3 million or more worm eggs daily onto pasture in July. Deworming options have increased recently. Medicated free- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 314 Morgan Hall 2621 Morgan Circle arec.tennessee.edu USDA / Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service