Budget09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 20 January Carbon Budget
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1 Budget09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 20 January 2011 Carbon Budget 2009
2 GCP-Carbon Budget2009 Contributors Karen Assmann University of Bergen, Norway Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA Gordon Bonan National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, France Erik Buitenhuis School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Ken Caldeira Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, France Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Steve Davis Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Richard A. Feely Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA Pru Foster QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Christoph Heinze University of Bergen, Norway Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Chris Huntingford Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK Peter E. Levy Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK Sam Levis National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USA Mark R. Lomas Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U Joseph Majkut AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Nicolas Metzl LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France Corinne Le Quéré School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Andrew Lenton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Ivan Lima Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Gregg Marland Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK James T. Randerson Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA Guido R. van der Werf Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Nicolas Viovy Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France F. Ian Woodward Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK Sönke Zaehle Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany Ning Zeng University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
3 GCP-Carbon Budget Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI /ngeo_1022, Online 21 November
4 Units 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x10 15 g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x10 12 g = 1 Million metric tons 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )
5 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) Growth rate % per year Growth rate % per year CO 2 emissions (Pg CO 2 y -1 ) 2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
6 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2009 Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) 2000 China 1600 USA India Russian Fed. 400 Japan Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010
7 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions: Profile Examples 2009 Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) 160 UK Canada 120 Australia 80 Spain The Netherlands 40 0 Denmark Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010
8 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation Developing Nations Non-Annex B 57% 43% Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010
9 Top 20 CO 2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y -1 ) POLAND SPAIN AUSTRALIA FRANCE (inl. Monaco) ITALY BRAZIL SOUTH AFRICA INDONESIA MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA CANADA UNITED KINGDOM IRAN SOUTH KOREA JAPAN GERMANY INDIA RUSSIA CHINA USA 0 Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010
10 CO 2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) 4 40% 3 Oil 36% Coal 2 Gas 1 Cement Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
11 Change in CO 2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009) 350 CO 2 emissions (Tg C y -1 ) % of growth 0-50 China India US World Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
12 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy -1 ) Observed Projected A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average B2 Models Average Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010
13 Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO 2 y -1 ) Year 2004 From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.
14 CO 2 Emissions from FF and LUC ( ) CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) Fossil fuel Land use change LUC emissions now ~10% of total CO 2 emissions Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
15 CO 2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) ±0.7 PgCy ±0.7 PgCy -1 CO 2 emissions (PgCO 2 y -1 ) 1990s Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC Emissions: 1.3±0.7 PgC : Emissions: 0.9±0.7 PgC Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010
16 Emissions from Land Use Change ( ) Tropical Temperate R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010 CO2 emissions (TgC y-1 )
17 Emissions from Land Use Change ( ) Latin America S & SE Asia Tropical Africa R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010 CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1 )
18 Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones Fire Emissions from deforestation zones (Tg C y -1 ) Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3.1 America Africa Asia Pan-tropics van der Werf et al. 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
19 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Parts Per Million (ppm) GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO 2 December 2009: ppm September 2010 (preliminary): ppm 39% above pre-industrial : 1.3 ppm y : 1.6 ppm y : 1.5 ppm y : 1.9 ppm y -1 November 2010 Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y -1 ) Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL
20 Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere CO 2 Partitioning (PgC y -1 ) Total CO 2 emissions Atmosphere Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: NOAA 2010, CDIAC 2010
21 Airborne Fraction Fraction of total CO 2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere 1.0 Trend: 0.31 % y -1 (p=~0.9) Airborne Fraction % 45% Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
22 Modelled Natural CO 2 Sinks 2 Land sink (PgCy -1 ) 5 models Ocean sink (PgCy -1 ) 5 models Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
23 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (PgC) CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Sink Source 5 deforestation 5 1.1± Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
24 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (PgC) CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Sink Source 5 5 fossil fuel emissions deforestation 7.7± ± Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
25 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (PgC) CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Sink Source 5 5 fossil fuel emissions deforestation 7.7± ± Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
26 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO (PgC) 7.7± ± ± Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
27 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO 2 ocean ocean (PgC) 7.7± ± ± ±0.4 (5 models) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
28 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (PgC) CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO 2 land ocean 7.7± ± ± (Residual) 2.3±0.4 (5 models) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
29 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) 1.1±0.7 PgC y ±0.1 PgC y -1 47% 2.4 PgC + y-1 7.7±0.5 PgC y 27% -1 Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 26% 2.3±0.4 PgC y -1 Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
30 Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget Global Carbon Project 2010
31 References cited in this ppt Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: , Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO 2 emissions. PNAS 107: International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI /ngeo_1022, Online 21 November Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: /ngeo Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO 2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO 2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO 2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires ( ). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10,
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