An Update on Building a Sustained Na3onal Climate Assessment: Vision & Reality

Transcription

1 An Update on Building a Sustained Na3onal Climate Assessment: Vision & Reality Glynis C Lough, PhD Chief of Staff, Na8onal Climate Assessment U.S. Global Change Research Program glough@usgcrp.gov

2 An Update on Building a Sustained Na3onal Climate Assessment: VISION & reality Glynis C Lough, PhD Chief of Staff, Na8onal Climate Assessment U.S. Global Change Research Program glough@usgcrp.gov

3 US Global Change Research Program Global Change Research Act (1990): To provide for development and coordina8on of a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Na8on and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human- induced and natural processes of global change. 13 Federal Departments & Agencies + Execu8ve Office of the President More informa8on: hfp://

4 Na8onal Climate Assessment: GCRA (1990), Sec8on 106 not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council shall prepare an assessment which integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program (USGCRP) and discusses the scien8fic uncertain8es associated with such findings; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy produc8on and use, land and water resources, transporta8on, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

5 THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT The NCA is an inclusive, broad- based, and sustained process for assessing and communica8ng scien8fic knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabili8es associated with a changing global climate in support of decision- making across the United States.

6 NCA3: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE U.S. Full report (Digital, 850 pages) Interac8ve, web- based Linked to data and sources Graphics (high- res files, interac8ve figures) Suppor8ng informa8on Slides and other materials Highlights (Printed,148 p) NCA2014.globalchange.gov Over 150k web hits in the first 24 hours! Over 1 Million in the first 3 months 6

7 NCA SUCCESS Three aspects of NCA3 were crucial to success: Stakeholder engagement Clear communica8on principles Transparency of process and informa8on

8 NCA: STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT Ongoing stakeholder engagement is crucial to the success of the NCA process and quadrennial reports. Workshops: Numerous workshops on Assessment methods & process Formal and informal conversa3ons: Listening sessions, town hall mee8ngs, professional society mee8ngs; other events Technical inputs and special assessment reports: Regional, sectoral, and response topics Public comment periods: on topics, dral reports, and ongoing ac8vi8es NCAnet: network of +150 partner organiza8ons, mul8ple affinity groups ; online at hfp://ncanet.usgcrp.gov 8

9 NCA3 COMMUNICATION WriFen in a popular style for non- technical audiences Chapters are arranged around key messages Lots of photos, case studies and examples Risk- based framing highlights impacts and opportuni8es that are important for decision makers Strong figures with access to suppor8ng informa8on (metadata) via Global Change Informa8on System Access to underlying technical informa8on, including traceable accounts, data sets, and reference material

10 NCA3 TRANSPARENCY: GLOBAL CHANGE INFORMATION SYSTEM (GCIS) nca2014.globalchange.gov data.globalchange.gov PDFs in print layout and graphics files are also available: downloads- materials

11 SUSTAINED ASSESSMENT: PROGRESS

12 2012 USGCRP STRATEGIC PLAN Goal 1. Advance Science: Advance scien8fic knowledge of the integrated natural and human components of the Earth system. Goal 2. Inform Decisions: Provide the scien8fic basis to inform and enable 8mely decisions on adapta8on and mi8ga8on Goal 3. Conduct Sustained Assessments: Build sustained assessment capacity that improves the Na8on s ability to understand, an8cipate, and respond to global change impacts and vulnerabili8es Goal 4. Communicate and Educate: Advance communica8ons and educa8on to broaden public understanding of global change and develop the scien8fic workforce of the future

13 2015: Updated Strategic Plan Advance Science Inform Decisions Sustained Assessments Communicate & Educate Public comment period closed 30 January 2016

14 SUSTAINED ASSESSMENT Build a sustained assessment process that improves our ability to understand, assess, an8cipate, and respond to global change impacts and vulnerabili8es Connect ins8tu8ons and ac8vi8es in regions and sectors through networks of informa8on providers and users Con8nuously define climate- related risks & opportuni8es over 8me, at na8onal, regional, and local scales Incorporate ongoing evalua8on of effec8veness Embrace an evolving framework that encourages informa8on providers and users to pursue new science and new knowledge to meet their own needs

15 EXAMPLES Special reports: In- depth reports on topics of emerging need or new science Climate and Health Food Security Carbon Cycle Climate Science Others: Drought, Forests

16 EXAMPLES User- focused assessment products Indicators system: Climate indicators that help users connect to relevant datasets and informa8on Pilot stage, ongoing development Extremes Assessment: Exploring the idea of producing a series of small, interac8ve assessment products addressing types of extreme weather events Focus on new science AND user needs

17 EXAMPLES User Engagement Ongoing NCAnet ac8vi8es New affinity groups on Scenarios, Valua8on New Federal Advisory CommiFee Will advise on user needs, user engagement, user perspec8ve Will connect the NCA with user communi8es Member nomina8ons are being reviewed

18 Acclima8se Adapta8on Interna8onal Alaska Ocean Observing System Alliance for Climate Educa8on American College and University Presidents' Climate Commitment American Geosciences Ins8tute American Geophysical Union American Lung Associa8on American Meteorological Society Policy Program American Planning Associa8on American Public Health Associa8on American Society of Adapta8on Professionals American Society of Civil NCANet Engineers American Sta8s8cal Associa8on American Water Works Associa8on Animalia Project Associa8on for the Tree of Life Associa8on of Climate Change Officers Associa8on of Fish & Wildlife Agencies Associa8on of Metropolitan Water Agencies Associa8on of Natural Resource Extension Professionals Associa8on of Public Health Laboratories Associa8on of State and Territorial Health Officials Associa8on of Zoos and Aquariums BCC Planning Bear Path Acres Animal Educa8on Center Blue Fron8er Campaign BlueGreen Alliance Broward Business County (Florida) & California Ocean Science Professional Trust Carnegie Mellon University Engineering and Public Policy Program Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA) Carpe Diem West Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) Center for Climate and Energy Solu8ons Industry Socie3es Center for Integrated Solu8ons to Climate Challenges, Arizona State University Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University Center for Sustainable Ci8es, University of Southern California Chamber of Eco Commerce Chicago Zoological Society Ci8zens Climate Lobby City of Cambridge Community Development Department Climate Access Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Climate Central Climate Change & Society Master's Program, North Carolina State University Climate Communica8on Climate Data Solu8ons, LLC Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) Climate Nexus Climate Resolve Collaboratory for Adapta8on to Climate Change Conserva8on Biology Ins8tute Consor8um of Universi8es for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. Consor8um for Ocean Leadership Coopera8ve Ins8tute for Climate and Satellites - North Carolina (CICS- NC) Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists Climate Change Workgroup Crop Science Society of America CU (University of Colorado) Sea Level Research Group Dan River Basin Associa8on Defenders of Wildlife Drawing Conclusions LLC Ducks Unlimited, Inc. Earth to Sky Interagency Partnership East- West Center EcoAdapt ecoamerica Ecological Society of America Ecologic Ins8tute Electric Power Research Ins8tute Energy / Climate AAAS Fellows and Alumni Environmental and Energy Study Ins8tute Educa3on ESIP Federa8on Florida Climate Ins8tute Four Twenty- Seven, Inc. Friends of Blackwater Geological Society Issue- Based of America Greater Washington Interfaith Power and Light Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Great Plains Ins8tute GUND Ins8tute for Ecological Economics Habitat Seven (K- 12, IAPMO Higher ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability USA Ins8tute of Faith Caribbean Studies Ins8tute for Coastal NGOs Science and (Enviro, Policy, East Carolina University Inter- American Development Bank Internews Earth Journalism Network IOOS Associa8on Island Press Kleinschmidt Associates Labor Network for Sustainability Educa3on, Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Educa8on Assessment and Research (MADE CLEAR) Manzanita Tribe Health, MassachuseFs etc.) Climate Ac8on Network Metcalf Ins8tute Marine & Environmental Informal) Repor8ng Mississippi- Alabama Sea Grant Consor8um Na8onal Academy of Engineering Center for Engineering, Ethics, and Society Na8onal Associa8on of County and City Health Officials Na8onal Center for Science Educa8on Na8onal Council for Science and the Environment Na8onal Ecological Observatory Network, Inc. Na8onal Environmental Health Associa8on Na8onal Wildlife Federa8on Natural Resources Defense Council New York City Department of Environmental Protec8on Next Genera8on North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services North Central Climate Science Center Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) Pacific Northwest Tribal Climate Change Network Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) Playa Lakes Joint Venture Portland Water Bureau Program on Climate and Health, Center for Climate Change Communica8on Public Health Ins8tute Resource Media Rising Voices Running Start Ins8tute Second Nature San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Sierra Club Sierra Club - Michigan Chapter Soil Science Society of America South Central Climate Science Center Southeast Climate Consor8um Southwestern Regional Climate Hub Stanford Woods Ins8tute for the Environment State Climate Office of North Carolina Sustainable Northwest Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable TERC Texas Sea Grant The CLEO Ins8tute The Keystone Center The Planet is Dying - An Ecology Game The Rainmakers - TBL Union of Concerned Scien8sts US CLIVAR US Climate and Health Alliance USA Na8onal Phenology Network USGCRP Adapta8on Government Science Working Group USGCRP Climate Change and Human Health Working Group US General Services Administra8on University Corpora8on for Atmospheric (Local, Research State, University of Arizona Center for Climate Tribal Adapta8on Science and Solu8ons University of South Carolina Environment & Sustainability Program Water U8lity Climate Alliance Weather Blogger Western Water Assessment Will Steger Founda8on World Resources Ins8tute World Wildlife Fund - US Yale Climate and Energy Ins8tute Young Voices for the Planet Federal)

19 EXAMPLES Data availability Global Change Informa8on System (GCIS) Con8nuing to build the system in a sensible way Adding info from all special reports Connec8ng to other Federal efforts Climate Data Ini8a8ve Climate Resilience Toolkit Adding content that is useful

20 EXAMPLES Scenarios decisions Early selec8on of climate projec8ons for 2018 NCA CMIP5 and RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 as focus for impacts Other informa8on i.e., RCP2.6 to be included as appropriate Hope this early decision will result in more literature using these scenarios for impacts studies!

21 EXAMPLES Social Sciences New interagency group focused on integra8ng social sciences into USGCRP ac8vi8es Providing ac8onable sugges8ons for NCA4 Providing input to improve human aspects of Indicators

22 PROGRESS Requests for Informa8on Opportuni8es for formal public input, published in the Federal Register Summer 2015 General ques8ons about sustained assessment Major input received: Regional informa8on will be important in future Engagement is very popular & cri8cal to NCA process Winter 2016 coming soon! More details about ideas and outline for NCA4

23 CHALLENGES

24 CHALLENGES Coordina8on ruled by commifee Funding mechanisms no control Budget OMB Federal rules FACA, PWR Engagement New and scary User needs impac8ng science Status quo

25 COORDINATION GCRP is comprised of the global change R&D arms of 13 Federal agencies, including Departments of Agriculture (many agencies) Commerce (NOAA & NIST) Defense (ONR) Energy (Office of Science) Health & Human Services (NIH/ NIEHS) Interior (USGS) State Transporta3on (FAA) EPA NASA NSF Smithsonian USAID Some are Mission and some are User agencies Lots of global change exper8se is not involved

26 COORDINATION USGCRP organiza8on

27 COORDINATION SubcommiFee on Global Change Research (SGCR) = Board of Directors Make all decisions about Program and budget Interagency Working Groups (IWGs) ~15 groups organized around specific topics ~5 100 members per group Members do not necessarily represent their whole agency Do most of the work of the program Na8onal Coordina8on Office (NCO) ~20 staff and federal detailees Coordinate across agencies coordinate all IWG ac8vi8es Led by Director who reports to OSTP

28 FUNDING & BUDGET USGCRP does not control its own budget WE HAVE NO MONEY! Partner agencies pay a small tax on their global change work The taxes fund all the ac8vi8es of the NCO Office space, Staff, Travel Interna8onal coopera8on (IPCC, Future Earth, etc) Na8onal Academies SGCR decides the budget annually Anything addi8onal must be paid separately by agencies

29 USGCRP Cycle for SeYng Annual Budget Priori3es With Key Budget Cycle Milestones Nov: OMB budget pass- back to agencies January- March - SGCR develops candidate priori8es for next FY (2 yr lead) Feb: President s FY Budget released October- March: - Principals Discussions: Iden8fy candidate FY 17 Priori8es March- April: - SGCR conveys dral FY priority themes to OSTP & OMB to consider for inclusion in OMB/OSTP Memo to the agencies Aug: Individual agency budgets submifed to OMB Sept: SGCR meets w/ OMB examiners Aug- Sept: - IWGs Workshop: Past Accomplishments; Current Plans; Future USGCRP Priori8es April- July: - IWGs develop work plan & iden8fy future priority ac8vi8es Spring- Sum: Agency depts develop budgets May- July: OMB/OSTP Memo provides guidance to agencies

30 FEDERAL RULES Two rules (in par8cular) complicate outreach efforts: Federal Advisory CommiFee Act (FACA) Going back to the same people repeatedly Gezng advice or recommenda8ons from 2+ people Paperwork Reduc8on Act Asking the same ques8ons of >9 people

31 USER ENGAGEMENT Program s tradi8onal strengths are in Physical Science Uncertainty about what users will ask for Concerns about poten8al requests to go beyond the science User fa8gue History of asking users what they want and not being able to provide it Unlimited poten8al for expansion

32 STATUS QUO Change is hard Budget uncertainty CommiFee decisions Jus8fying budget changes An8cipa8ng poli8cal wishes

33 SOLUTIONS? Con8nue to pursue engagement and transparency Beginning to be befer understood and supported Boundary organiza8ons Organiza8ons extend the reach of our small NCO Share our informa8on widely, bring stakeholder informa8on back to the agencies Involve more Federal departments Many agency programs are star8ng to use climate info

34 SOLUTIONS? Keep working! Success is a huge mo8vator

35 ARIZONA OPPORTUNITIES Sign up for the USGCRP newslefer Respond to calls for comment, input, etc. Come to DC!

36 Third Na3onal Climate Assessment Climate Change Impacts in the United States h\p://nca2014.globalchange.gov facebook.com/usgcrp Glynis C. Lough,