THE RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION OPTIONS FOR THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA AND IMPACT ON SWRO DESALINATION

Transcription

1 THE RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION OPTIONS FOR THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA AND IMPACT ON SWRO DESALINATION Upeksha Caldera, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Svetlana Afanasyeva and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland 6 th NCE Researchers Seminar, Lappeenranta, August, 2016

2 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 2 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

3 Motivation Global interest in 100% renewable energy (RE) transition RE powered reverse osmosis seawater desalination is a solution to global water shortage. Saudi Arabia is world s largest producer of crude oil and 11 th largest consumer New government vision calls for a Saudi future without oil Saudi Arabia is world s largest producer of desalinated water Demand for SWRO desalination is expected to grow What could the transition pathway to a 100% RE power system by 2050 look like for Saudi Arabia? What are the impacts of integrating the large desalination demand with the power sector? Total installed capacities by the beginning of 2015 in Saudi Arabia. Source: Farfan J and Breyer Ch, 2016, Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments, Journal of Cleaner Production 3 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

4 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 4 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

5 Methodology Overview Energy transition pathway from 2015 fossil based to a 100% RE power system by 2050 Transition in 5 year time steps No new fossil based thermal power plants installed after 2015 Least cost RE power plant mix replaces phased out fossil power plants Energy system modelled to meet increasing electricity demand for each time step SWRO desalination demand, from 2015 to 2050, integrated into the power system Research Objective: Find the least cost energy transition pathway for Saudi Arabia. Compare the energy transition with and without integration of desalination sector to determine optimal path. Top : Aggregated load curve for the year 2015 for Saudi Arabia Bottom: Variation in the electrical energy consumption of Saudi Arabia from 2015 up to 2050 Total Electricity Consumption (TWh) Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

6 Methodology LUT Energy Systems Model Technologies for conversion of RE into electricity Energy storage Energy sector bridging technologies In addition : Multi Stage Flash (MSF) desaliantion accounted for cogeneration and stand alone Energy transition. Fossil plants phased out based on lifetime. Optimal RE power system for increased electricity demand for each 5 year time step is determined Hourly temporal resolution, 0.45 x 0.45 spatial resolutiuon Block diagram of the LUT energy systems model used for Saudi Arabia 6 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

7 Data Power Plant Capacities Technical and Financial Assumptions Capex variation based on learning curves Least cost power plant capacities based on Cost Efficiency of generation and storage Power to energy ratio of storage Available resource Wind onshore has 2538 full load hours (FLH) PV single-axis has 2443 FLH WACC is set to 7% for all years Fuel costs /MWh th for oil 21.8 /MWh th for gas Variation in capex from for all power plant components utilised by model. Detailed capex, fixed opex, efficiency and power to energy ratio numbers are presented in paper 7 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

8 Data Seawater Desalination Capacities Technical and Financial Assumptions Total water demand for Saudi Arabia Desalination demand Final non-renewable water resource used Actual desalination demand Installed capacities SWRO MSF Stand Alone MSF Cogeneration mill m 3 /day mill m 3 /day mill m 3 /day mill m 3 /day mill m 3 /day mill m 3 /day mill m 3 /day Actual desalination demand takes into account usage of non renewable water resource Non renewable water usage specified by National Water Strategy of Saudi Arabia Only SWRO installed after 2015 MSF cogeneration and stand alone phased out based on lifetime 8 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

9 Data Seawater Desalination Capacities Technical and Financial Assumptions Sea Water Reverse Osmosis Capex /(m 3 day) Opex fix /(m 3 day) Energy consumption kwh/m Multi Stage Flash Capex /(m 3 day) for cogeneration Opex fix /(m 3 day) Gain Output Ratio: 8 Thermal energy Power to Water: 2.25 consumption kw/(m 3 day) ( Total gas input required kwh th /m for water and electricity) Electrical energy consumption kwh el /m Multi Stage Flash Capex /(m 3 day) for stand alone Opex fix /(m 3 day) Gain Output Thermal energy Ratio: 8 consumption kwh th /m Electrical energy consumption kwh el /m SWRO capex estimated for m 3 /day plants, assuming large scale future plants in Saudi Arabia ~ 5% decrease in SWRO energy consumption for every 5 yrs, based on past trends MSF plants utilize both thermal and electrical energy Cogeneration plants produce both electricity and water 9 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

10 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 10 Upeksha Caldera

11 Results: Overview of Simulated Scenarios Non-integrated scenario Energy transition pathway found for the power sector Power plant capacities required for the seawater desalination capacities found separately Total power plant capacities = power plants required for electricity demand + power plants required for desalination demand Integrated scenario SWRO desalination is integrated into the power sector throughout energy transition Optimal utilisation of hourly energy production Least cost transition to 100% RE power system: non-integrated scenario or integrated scenario? 11 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

12 Results: Integrated Scenario Power Sector Mix Installed capacities of different power plants required from 2015 to 2050 Additional capacities of different power plants required from 2015 to 2050 Saudi Arabia can achieve a 100% RE power system by 2040 Oil powered ICE eliminated by 2035 and natural gas powered gas turbines by 2040 By 2050, PV single-axis dominates with 369 GW and wind power plants with 76 GW GT plants to utilize synthetic natural gas produced via methanation units added in 2030 New wind installations cease after 2030 PV single-axis tracking dominates 12 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

13 Results: Integrated Scenario Power Sector Mix FLH variations of the different power plants used in the model Electricity production of the different power plant categories from 2015 to 2050 FLH of PV single-axis tracking, PV fixed tilted and wind onshore maximised Least cost option determined by model FLH of oil powered ICE plants diminish from 3500 to 43 by 2035, due to too high (opportunity) cost of oil By 2050, PV single-axis generates 83% of the total electricity generated After 2045, wind generation decreases due to end of lifetime of wind power plants 13 Upeksha Caldera

14 Results: Integrated Scenario Storage Mix Additional storage capacity required from 2015 to 2050 Ratio of storage output to electricity demand from 2015 to 2050 Large capacity of gas storage required in 2040 less required thereafter Energy storage becomes cost competitive by 2025 is a cheaper option to balance the power system compared to fossil powered thermal plants By 2050, batteries provide a total output of about 401 TWh el Accounts for about 48% of the total electricity demand Between 2030 and 2050, battery full charge cycles required are between 300 and 310 cycles a year 14 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

15 Results: Integrated Scenario LCOE of the resulting optimal power mix Detailed contribution of components to the total LCOE from 2015 to 2050 Relative contribution of financial components to the total LCOE from 2015 to 2050 Energy transition decrease system LCOE to 48 /MWh by 2040 and 38 /MWh by 2050 Batteries and PV single-axis largest contributor to LCOE by 2050 PV single-axis + Battery storage more cost competitive than wind power plants Fuel and CO 2 costs disappear by 2035 Transition to a 100% RE power system Capex contributes up to 80% towards the LCOE 15 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

16 Results: Integrated Scenario Desalination Sector Growth Water desalination capacities required to meet KSA s total water demand from 2015 to 2050 Water storage relative state of charge in 2015 By 2050, total water demand of 112 mill m 3 /day 52% met by SWRO desalination Model determines optimal water storage required for each time step Increase in SWRO desalination capacity Increase in water storage Water storage to be used as seasonal or weekly storage similar to PtG or A-CAES 16 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

17 Results: Integrated Scenario LCOW of the resulting desalination sector LCOW decreases from 2.7 /m 3 in 2015 to 0.60 /m 3 in Phasing out gas consumption Decrease in electricity costs and SWRO Capex Increase in the efficiency of RO desalination plants Total capex required from 2015 to billion Current water production costs of fossil powered SWRO plants in Saudi Arabia 0.65 /m /m 3 However, excludes cost of transporting desalinated water to the demand site and water storage 100% RE transition lower LCOW than current fossil powered desalination plants in Saudi Arabia LCOW variation from 2015 to Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

18 Results: Integrated or Non-Integrated Scenario Cost Comparison Comparison of total annual levelised costs Comparison of curtailed electricity Annual levelised cost for the integrated scenario is 2% - 4% lower than non-integrated scenario Represents annual cost decrease of bn Between , in integrated scenario, 2% and 9% less battery and PtG electrolyser capacities required respectively There is more curtailed energy in the integrated scenario, but lower ratio to total generated electricity than in the non-integrated scenario, due to optimal utilization of hourly produced renewable energy Integrated scenario least cost transition pathway to meet Saudi Arabia s electricity and water demands 18 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

19 Results Summary of key power capacities required for the integrated energy transition PV single-axis tracking GWp PV optimally tilted MWp Wind power plants GW Geothermal GW Battery storage output PtG electrolyser input TWh GW e PV single-axis tracking + Battery dominates the power sector after 2030 Installation of wind power plants are not found to be economical after 2030 Batteries provide the least cost storage for the KSA power system Integration of SWRO and water storage reduces the demands for battery storage and PtG A lucrative renewable energy transition for KSA will be dominated by PV single-axis tracking and battery storage 19 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

20 To further improve the model There are gaps in the research methodology and data for Saudi Arabia that should be addressed: Integration of Multiple effect distillation (MED) capacities in Saudi Arabia. MED has lower thermal energy consumption than MSF and lower electrical energy consumption than SWRO. Accounting for the industrial gas demand of Saudi Arabia. This results in an increase in synthetic natural gas production and excess heat in the system. This could be utilized for lowering the thermal energy demand of desalination technologies like MED. Better understanding of the impacts of water storage and SWRO utilisation in the integrated scenario. No well-defined learning curve for SWRO desalination plants. This makes it difficult to project the future SWRO costs. Addressing the above points will enable to determine a more comprehensive transition pathway to a 100% RE power system for Saudi Arabia 20 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

21 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 21 Upeksha Caldera

22 Summary Saudi Vision 2030 plan calls for a future without oil with increased investments in renewable energy systems and securing of water resources for future generations LUT energy systems model was used to identify least cost energy transition pathway to a 100% RE power system in Saudi Arabia, whilst meeting the country s future water demands Saudi Arabia can achieve a 100% RE power system by 2040, with an average LCOE of 48 /MWh By 2050 average LCOE is 38 /MWh After 2030, the optimal power mix for Saudi Arabia will be dominated by PV single-axis tracking; Wind power plant installations cease after 2030 PV single-axis tracking + battery storage is a more lucrative option than wind power plants PV electricity accounts for > 80% by 2050 and > 45% of demand is covered by batteries LCOW (including water desalination, transportation to demand site and water storage) decreases from 2.7 /m 3 in 2015 to 0.6 /m 3 in 2050 Integration of SWRO desalination with the power sector optimizes the power sector and results in a 2% - 4% reduction in annual levelised costs The results present a least cost transition path for Saudi Arabia to meet the country s future electricity and water demands through a 100% RE system 22 Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi

23 Thank you for your attention! NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre. Please check next slides for an overview of all data, assumptions and references.

24 References Global Water Intelligence Desal Data, GWI DesalData., Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE supply: Optimal mix of energy technologies for electricity, gas and heat supply options, Energy Conv Mgm, 112, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2016, Vision 2030, Riyadh, Caldera U, Bogdanov D, Breyer Ch, 2016, Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: A global estimate, Desalination, 385, Loutatidou S, Chalermthai B, Marpu P, R, Arafat H, Capital cost estimation of RO plants: GCC countries versus southern Europe, Desalination, 347, Elimelech M and Phillip A W, 2011, The Future of Seawater Desalination: Energy, Technology and the Environment, Science, 333, El-Nashar A M, 2001, Cogeneration for power and desalination state of the art review, Desalination, 134, 7-28 Aghahosseini A., Bogdanov D., Breyer Ch., The MENA Super Grid towards 100% Renewable Energy Power Supply by 2030, 11 th International Energy Conference, Tehran, May Fraunhofer ISE, 2015, Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV Systems, study on behalf of Agora Energiewende, Freiburg and Berlin, /AgoraEnergiewende_Current_and_Future_Cost_of_PV_Feb2015_web.pdf Neij L, 2008, Cost development of future technologies for power generation A study based on experience curves and complementary and bottom-up assessments, Energy Policy, 36, Haysom J E, Jafarieh O, Anis H, Hinzer K, Wright D, 2014, Learning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems, Progress in Photovoltaics, 23, McDonald A, Schrattenholzer L, 2001, Learning rates for energy technologies, Energy Policy, 29, Hoffmann W, 2014, Importance and evidence for cost effective electricity storage, 29th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September Upeksha Caldera upeksha.caldera@lut.fi