INTEGRATED RENEWABLE ENERGY BASED POWER SYSTEM FOR EUROPE, EURASIA AND MENA REGIONS

Transcription

1 INTEGRATED RENEWABLE ENERGY BASED POWER SYSTEM FOR EUROPE, EURASIA AND MENA REGIONS Dmitrii Bogdanov, Otto Koskinen, Arman Aghahosseini, Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland NEO-CARBON ENERGY 6th RESEARCHERS SEMINAR Lappeenranta, August 29, 2016

2 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 2

3 Integration potential Huge renewable resources: Perfect wind conditions around North Sea region and in Northwest Russia Very good solar conditions in MENA High existing hydro capacities (dams, run-of-river, PHS) in Europe and Eurasia provide flexibility Huge electricity demand in Europe 12 time zones in the region with high variability of resources availability Further flexibility from sustainable biomass resources (municipal waste and residues from agricultural and forestry industries) Promising possibility to build a cost competitive independent 100% RE system using current technologies 3

4 Current status of the power plant mix Europe source: Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator, Journal of Cleaner Production Key insights: new installations dominated by renewables nuclear as niche technology for years still some new coal capacities overall trend very positive 4

5 Current status of the power plant mix Eurasia source: Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator, Journal of Cleaner Production Key insights: rather low increase in capacities in last 25 years gas dominated power system RE integration very easy due to highly flexible gas plants very low level of RE 5

6 Current status of the power plant mix MENA source: Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator, Journal of Cleaner Production Key insights: strong increase in capacities in last years gas dominated power system RE integration very easy due to highly flexible gas plants very low level of RE 6

7 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 7

8 Key Objective Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions resources, optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region, optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, least cost energy supply for the given constraints. LUT Energy model, key features linear optimization model hourly resolution multi-node approach flexibility and expandability Input data historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind speed and hydro precipitation available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy synthesized power load data gas and water desalination demand efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants efficiency of energy conversion processes capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources min and max capacity limits for all RE resources nodes and interconnections configuration 8

9 Methodology Full system Renewable energy sources PV rooftop PV ground-mounted PV single-axis tracking Wind onshore/ offshore Hydro run-of-river Hydro dam Geothermal energy CSP Waste-to-energy Biogas Biomass Electricity transmission node-internal AC transmission interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options Batteries Pumped hydro storage Adiabatic compressed air storage Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 from air 9 Energy Demand Electricity Water Desalination Industrial Gas Integrated Gasrenewable storage energy based power system for Europe, Eurasia and MENA regions

10 Scenarios assumptions Key data ~1448 mil population (2030) 29% of global ~7388 TWh electricity demand (2030) 25% of global ~1208 GW peak load (2030) ~39 m km 2 area 29% of global 18 regions: EU-NS North Sea Iceland and British Islands EU-IB Iberia Iberia EU-AT Atlantic France and Benelux EU-NO Nordic Scandinavia and Baltic states EU-C Central Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czech and Slovak republics EU-E East Poland and Ukraine Italy, Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia EU-SW South West and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania EU-SE South East Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey MN-WM Maghreb Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia MN-EM North AfricaLibya, Egypt, Israel MN-AR Arabia Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar MN-NE Middle East Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan MN-IR Iran Iran EA-C Center Belorussia, northwest and central Russia EA-SV Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, South Russia South-Volga and Volga region EA-U Urals Urals EA-CA Central AsiaCentral Asia EA-SI Siberia Siberia 10

11 Scenarios assumptions Grid configurations Regional-wide open trade (no interconnections between regions/ countries) Area-wide open trade (major-region HVDC grids are interconnected, i.e. Europe, Eurasia, MENA still separated)) Integration (all regions are interconnected) Area-wide open trade with water desalination and industrial gas production Scenarios Assumption PV selfconsumption Industrial Gas Regional-wide Area-wide Integration Integration Gas X X X X X 11

12 Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Generation costs Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [ /kw] [ /(kw a)] [ /kwh] [a] PV rooftop PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis Wind onshore Hydro Run-of-River * Hydro dam * Geothermal energy Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 scrubbing CCGT OCGT Biomass PP Wood gasifier CHP Biogas CHP MSW incinerator Steam turbine Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(m 3 a)] [ /(m 3 a)] [ /(m 3 a)] [a] Water desalination Technology Energy/Power Ratio [h] Battery 6 PHS 8 A-CAES 100 Gas storage 80*24 Efficiency [%] Battery 90 PHS 85 A-CAES 83 Gas storage 100 Water electrolysis 84 CO 2 scrubbing 78 Methanation 77 CCGT 58 OCGT 43 Geothermal energy 24 MSW incinerator 34 Biogas CHP 40 Steam turbine 42 CSP collector * Integrated hydro power renewable plants older energy than based 50 years power are system takenfor into Europe, account Eurasia and MENA regions Dmitrii with refurbishment Bogdanov capex Dmitrii.Bogdanov@lut.fi of 500 /kw for 30 years

13 Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Storage and transmission costs Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [ /kwh] [ /(kwh a)] [ /kwh] [a] Battery /20 PHS A-CAES Gas storage Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(m 3 h)] [ /(m 3 a)] [ /(m 3 h)] [a] Water storage Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [ /(m 3 km)] [ /(m 3 km a)] [kwh/(m 3 km)] [a] Horizontal pumping Vertical pumping WACC = 7% Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(kw km)] [ /(kw km a)] [ /kw] [a] Transmission line Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /kw] [ /(kw a)] [ /kw] [a] Converter station

14 Scenarios assumptions Full load hours Region PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis FLH FLH CSP FLH Wind FLH EU-NS EU-IB EU-AT EU-NO EU-C EU-E EU-SW EU-SE MN-WM MN-EM MN-AR MN-NE MN-IR EA-C EA-SV EA-U EA-CA EA-SI FLH of region computed as weighted average of regional sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each): 0%-20% best sub-areas of region %-30% best sub-areas of region %-50% best sub-areas of region Integrated renewable energy based power system for Europe, Data: Eurasia based and on MENA NASA regions (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), SSE release 6.0) reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., Dissertation, Stuttgart)

15 Scenarios assumptions PV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030) 15

16 Scenarios assumptions Generation profile (area integrated) PV generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighted average rule. Wind generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighted average rule. 16 Key insights: Seasonal complement of PV and wind

17 Scenarios assumptions Load (area aggregated) Synthesized load curves for each region Total load (2030) Total load (2030) - including the impact of prosumers (less load) 17 Key insights: PV self-consumption reduces the peak load and the gradients in the system

18 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 18

19 Results 2030 Scenario Total LCOE Primary LCOE LCOC LCOS LCOT Total ann. cost Total CAPEX RE capacities Generated electricity [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [bn ] [bn ] [GW] [TWh] Region-wide Area-wide Integrated Integrated-Gas *,** Total LCOE*** prosumer LCOE primary prosumer LCOS prosumer Total ann. Cost prosumer Total CAPEX prosumer PV capacities prosumer Generated electricity prosumer [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [bn ] [bn ] [GW] [TWh] * additional gas demand ** LCOS does not include the cost for the industrial gas (LCOG) Gas integrated: LCOG: /kwh th,gas 19

20 Results Self-Consumption Integrated scenario 2030 RES COM IND Electricity price [ /kwh] PV LCOE [ /kwh] Self-consumption PV LCOE [ /kwh] Self-consumption PV and Battery LCOE [ /kwh] Self-consumption LCOE [ /kwh] Benefit [ /kwh] Installed capacities RES COM IND PV [GW] Battery storage [GWh] Generation RES COM IND PV [TWh] Battery storage [TWh] Excess [TWh] Utilization RES COM IND Self-consumption of generated PV electricity [%] Self-coverage market segment [%] Self-coverage operators [%] Source (electricity prices): Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., Impact of Financing Cost on Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29 th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26

21 Results Import / Export (year 2030) Area integrated Key insights: Storage usage very limited, only 7% of total demand provided by storage Electricity trade limited, only 11% traded among regions Cost optimum includes 4% curtailed energy 21

22 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade prosumers 22

23 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade total 23

24 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade total 24

25 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade total 25

26 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade total 26

27 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Integrated 27

28 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Integrated 28

29 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Integrated total 29

30 Results Installed Capacities 2030 Scenario Wind PV Hydro RoR Hydro dams Biogas Biomass Waste Geothermal Battery PHS CAES PtG GT [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] [GW el ] [GW] Region-wide Area-wide Integrated Integrated-Gas Scenario PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis PV prosumers PV total Battery system Battery prosumers Battery total [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] Region-wide Area-wide Integrated Integrated-Gas

31 Results Regions Electricity Capacities Region-wide Area-wide Integrated Integrated with gas demand 31

32 Results Regions Storage Throughput Region-wide Area-wide Integrated Integrated with gas demand 32

33 Results Storage Storage capacities Throughput of storages Full cycles per year 2030 Scenario Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh th ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh th ] [-] [-] [-] [-] Region-wide Area-wide Integrated Integrated-Gas * total, includes system and prosumers batteries Thermal energy storage share is negligible because of climate conditions being unfavorable for CSP power plants and lack of competitiveness of TES with other storage technologies. 33

34 Results Storage Operation Integrated 34 Dmitrii Bogdanov

35 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 35

36 Results Hourly profile Europe: Center 36

37 Results Hourly profile Eurasia: Center 37

38 Results Hourly profile MENA: North Africa 38

39 Overview on World s Regions Regions LCOE regionwide LCOE area-wide Integrati on benefit ** storage s* grids regions trade* Curtailm ent PV prosum ers* PV system * Wind * Biomass * [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] Hydro* Northeast Asia % 7% 10% 5% 16.4% 35.4% 40.9% 2.9% 11.6% Southeast Asia % 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6% India/ SAARC % 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4% Eurasia % <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4% Europe % 6% 17% 2% 12.3% 14.9% 55.0% 6.6% 9.3% MENA % <1% 10% 5% 1.8% 46.4% 48.4% 1.3% 1.1% Sub-Saharan Africa % 4% 8% 4% 16.2% 34.1% 31.1% 7.8% 8.2% North America % 1% 24% 4% 11.0% 19.8% 58.4% 3.7% 6.8% South America % 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1% Key insights: 100% RE is highly competitive least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand PV share typically around 40% (range 15-51%) hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further decrease with heat and mobility sector integration 39most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 3-24%) * Integrated scenario, supply share ** annualised costs sources: see

40 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 40

41 LCOE of alternatives are NO alternative Key insights PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-ccs is too expensive nuclear and coal-ccs are high risk technologies high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed 41 source: Agora Energiewende, Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option, Berlin

42 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 42

43 Summary 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable! super grid interconnection further decreases average cost of electricity of the total integrated rim to 50 /MWh from 51 /MWh (area) and from 56 /MWh (region) integration within major regions highly attractive, however interconnection of the major regions generates only very limited extra financial benefit share of wind is about 55%, PV is about 23% despite an upper limit 50% higher than the current capacity for hydro dams and RoR, in all the considered scenarios PV and wind are financially more beneficial technologies according to the availability of the regions resources all regions benefit from integration additional demand integration results in further decrease in energy cost in the system. 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option! 43

44 Thanks for your attention and to the team! The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the Neo-Carbon Energy project under the number 40101/14.

45 Back-up Slides