EUROPA 100% ERNEUERBAR

Transcription

1 EUROPA 100% ERNEUERBAR Christian Breyer, Otto Koskinen and Dmitrii Bogdanov Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland 14. Nationale Photovoltaik-Tagung, organised by Swissolar Bern, February 22-23, 2016

2 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 2

3 Europe s RE potential Huge renewable resources of Europe: Perfect wind conditions around North Sea region Very good wind conditions and solar irradiation in Central Europe High existing hydro capacities (dams, run-of-river, PHS) provide flexibility Further flexibility from sustainable biomass resources (municipal waste and residues from agricultural and forestry industries) Decarbonizing energy sector means electrification of services: growing electricity demand Promising possibility to build cost competitive independent 100% RE system using current technologies 3

4 Current status of the power plant mix Courtesy of Javier Farfan Key insights: new installations dominated by renewables nuclear as niche technology since years still some new coal capacities overall trend very positive 4

5 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 5

6 Key Objective Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions resources, optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region of Eurasia, optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, least cost energy supply for the given constraints. LUT Energy model, key features linear optimization model hourly resolution multi-node approach flexibility and expandability Input data historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind speed and hydro precipitation available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy synthesized power load data gas and water desalination demand efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants efficiency of energy conversion processes capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources min and max capacity limits for all RE resources nodes and interconnections configuration 6

7 Methodology Full system Renewable energy sources PV rooftop PV ground-mounted PV single-axis tracking Wind onshore/ offshore Hydro run-of-river Hydro dam Geothermal energy CSP Waste-to-energy Biogas Biomass Electricity transmission node-internal AC transmission interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options Batteries Pumped hydro storage Adiabatic compressed air storage Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 from air 7 Europa Gas 100% storage erneuerbar Energy Demand Electricity Water Desalination Industrial Gas

8 Scenarios assumptions Key data ~675 mio population (2030) ~4000 TWh electricity demand (2030) ~607 GW peak load (2030) ~6.49 mio km 2 area ~14.7 bil m 3 /a water desalination demand (2030) 20 regions NO: Norway DK: Denmark SE: Sweden FI: Finland BLT: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania PL: Poland CRS: Czech Republic, Slovakia AUH: Austria, Hungary CH: Switzerland DE: Germany BNL: Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg FR: France BRI: Ireland, UK IS: Iceland IBE: Portugal, Spain IT: Italy BKN-W: Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania BKN-E: Romania, Bulgaria, Greece UA: Ukraine, Moldova TR: Turkey 8

9 Scenarios assumptions Grid configurations Regional-wide open trade (no interconnections between regions/ countries) Area-wide open trade (country-wide HVDC grids are interconnected) Area-wide open trade with water desalination and industrial gas production Scenarios Assumption Regional-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Des-Gas PV selfconsumption Water Desalination Industrial Gas X X X X X 9

10 Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Generation costs Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [ /kw] [ /kw] [ /kwh] [a] PV rooftop PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis Wind onshore Hydro Run-of-River Hydro dam Geothermal energy Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 scrubbing CCGT OCGT Biomass PP Wood gasifier CHP Biogas CHP MSW incinerator Steam turbine Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(m 3 a)] [ /(m 3 a)] [ /(m 3 a)] [a] Water desalination Technology Energy/Power Ratio [h] Battery 6 PHS 8 A-CAES 100 Gas storage 80*24 Efficiency [%] Battery 90 PHS 85 A-CAES 83 Gas storage 100 Water electrolysis 84 CO 2 scrubbing 78 Methanation 77 CCGT 58 OCGT 43 Geothermal energy 24 MSW incinerator 34 Biogas CHP 40 Steam turbine 42 CSP collector 51 10

11 Scenarios assumptions Financial assumptions (year 2030) Storage and transmission costs Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [ /kwh] [ /(kwh a)] [ /kwh] [a] Battery PHS A-CAES Gas storage Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(m 3 h)] [ /(m 3 h a)] [ /(m 3 h)] [a] Water storage Technology Capex [ /(m 3 h km)] Opex fix [ /(m 3 h km a)] Energy consumption [kwh/(m 3 h km)] Lifetime [a] Horizontal pumping Vertical pumping WACC = 7% Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime Technology [ /(kw km)] [ /(kw km a)] [ /kw] [a] Transmission line Technology Capex [ /kw] Opex fix [ /(kw a)] Opex var [ /kw] Lifetime [a] Converter station

12 Region Scenarios assumptions Full load hours PV fixed-tilted FLH PV single-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind FLH NO DK SE FI BLT PL IBE FR BNL BRI DE CRS AUH BKN-W BKN-E IT CH TR UA IS FLH of region computed as weighed average of regional sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each): 0%-20% best sub-areas of region %-30% best sub-areas of region %-50% best sub-areas of region Data: based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), SSE release 6.0) reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., Dissertation, Stuttgart)

13 Scenarios assumptions PV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030) 13

14 Scenarios assumptions Generation profile (area integrated) PV generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. Wind generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. 14 Key insights: Seasonal complementary of PV and wind

15 Scenarios assumptions Load (area aggregated) Synthesized load curves for each region Total load (2030) Total load (2030) - including the impact of prosumers (less load) 15 Key insights: PV self-consumption reduces the peak load and the gradients in the system

16 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 16

17 Results 2030 Scenario Total LCOE Primary LCOE LCOC LCOS LCOT Total ann. cost Total CAPEX RE Generated capacities electricity [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [bn ] [bn ] [GW] [TWh] Region-wide Area-wide Area-wide Des-Gas*, ** Total LCOE LCOE*** primary prosumer prosumer LCOS prosumer Total ann. Cost prosumer Total CAPEX prosumer PV capacities prosumer Generated electricity prosumer [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [bn ] [bn ] [GW] [TWh] * additional demand 95% gas and 5% desalination ** LCOS does not include the cost for the industrial gas (LCOG) *** integrated scenario, fully included in table above older simulation, slightly different assumptions Area integrated: LCOW: 0.8 /m 3 LCOG: /kwh th,gas 17

18 Results Self-Consumption Europe super-region area integrated 2030 RES COM IND Electricity price [ /kwh] PV LCOE [ /kwh] Self-consumption PV LCOE [ /kwh] Self-consumption PV and Battery LCOE [ /kwh] Self-consumption LCOE [ /kwh] Benefit [ /kwh] Installed capacities RES COM IND PV [GW] Battery storage [GWh] Generation RES COM IND PV [TWh] Battery storage [TWh] Excess [TWh] Utilization RES COM IND Self-consumption of generated PV electricity [%] Self-coverage market segment [%] Self-coverage operators [%] Source (electricity prices): Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., Impact of Financing Cost on Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29 th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26

19 Total annual cost [bn ] Total electricity generation RE [TWh] 19 Results Benefits of electricity and industrial gas sectors integration Area-wide desalination gas Desalination Sector Ind Gas Sector Power Sector Independent sectors Desalination Sector Ind Gas Sector Power Sector Independent sectors older simulation, slightly different assumptions Integrated sectors Integrated sectors 5.9 % relative integration benefit 371 TWh absolute integration benefit Key insights: integration benefits: decrease in total electricity demand and total annual levelized cost decrease in total electricity curtailment losses of 27.2% (49 TWh absolute) and in total capex by 8.7% (293 bn absolute) 8.7% relative integration benefit 32 bn absolute integration benefit

20 Results Import / Export (year 2030) Area integrated Key insights: Storage usage very limited, only 6% of total demand provided by storage Electricity trade limited, only 14% traded among regions Cost optimum includes 4% curtailed energy Net Importers: Sweden, Finland, Benelux, AUH, Balkan- E, Switzerland, Ukraine Net Exporters: Norway, Denmark, Baltic, British Isles, France, Balkan-W, Turkey 20

21 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade total 21

22 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade prosumers 22

23 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Region-wide open trade total 25

24 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Area integrated total 26

25 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Area integrated total 28

26 Results Total LCOE (year 2030) Area integrated total 29

27 Results Installed Capacities 2030 Scenario Wind PV Hydro RoR Hydro dams Biogas Biomass Waste Geothermal Battery PHS CAES PtG GT [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] [GW el ] [GW] Region-wide Integrated Scenario PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis PV prosumers PV total Battery system Battery prosumers Battery total [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] Region-wide Integrated

28 Results Resource utilization area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas Area-wide open trade older simulation, slightly different assumptions Area-wide open trade desalination gas PV total capacity 781 GW PV total capacity 1142 GW, +46% Wind total capacity 715 GW Wind total capacity 1069 GW, +50% 31 Key insights: demand for offshore wind in North Sea region, significant capacity additions unused solar PV potential lower in cost than wind offshore restiance against new power lines will push solar PV in the system impact on PtG/ PtX not yet clear

29 Results Regions Electricity Capacities area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Key insights: Area-wide scenario shows small share of system PV capacities in most of the regions, prosumers share is significant Sunny conditions in Iberia lead to significant share of PV single-axis >50% wind share in Baltic, Denmark, British Isles, France, Poland, Ukraine Key insights: PV plays a major role in Area-wide desalination gas scenario for Central and Southern Europe PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of electricity for water desalination and industrial gas production resistance against new grids could drastically increase the PV share 32 older simulation, slightly different assumptions

30 Results Storages Storage capacities Throughput of storages Full cycles per year Battery* 2030 Scenario PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh th ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh th ] [-] [-] [-] [-] Region-wide Integration * total Thermal energy storage share is negligible because of climate conditions being unfavorable for CSP power plants and lack of competitiveness of TES with other storage technologies. 33

31 Results Storages Capacities area-wide and area-wide open trade desalination gas Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Key insights: Excess energy for area-wide open trade desalination gas lower than with independent sectors (from 141 TWh to 132 TWh, also relative shares of excess energy decrease from 3.2% to 2.2% of total generation). Existing PHS storages play significant role Relative share of prosumers batteries increase significantly in integration scenario in Northern Europe Absolute storage capacities increase in Southern Europe and decrease in Central and Northern Europe when sectors are integrated 34 older simulation, slightly different assumptions

32 Results Storages Operation area integrated 35

33 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 36

34 Results Net importer region Benelux (area integrated) 37

35 Results Balancing region Italy (area integrated) 38

36 Results Net exporter region Turkey (area integrated) 39

37 Results Energy flow of the System of area-wide open trade desalination gas (2030) Key insights: Wind is the major energy source with supply share of 45.2% PV generation share 27.0% A-CAES and gas storages are substituted by flexible demand of gas synthesis and geographic balancing by grids Batteries used also as input to PtG as part of least cost solution 40

38 Comparison to other regions Regions LCOE total regionwide LCOE total areawide Integrati on benefit ** storage s* grids interreg ional trade* Curtailm ent PV prosum ers* PV system * Wind * Biomass * hydro* [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] Northeast Asia % 10% 26% 6% 14.3% 27.5% 48.2% 7.8% 7.2% Southeast Asia % 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6% Eurasia % <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4% South America % 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1% Europe % 3% 15% 3% 15.3% 11.7% 45.2% 7.2% 8.2% Sub-Saharan Africa % 4% 8% 4% 16.2% 34.1% 31.1% 7.8% 8.2% India/ SAARC % 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4% Key insights: 100% RE is highly competitive least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand PV share typically around 40% (range 14-50%) hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further decrease with heat and mobility sector integration most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 2-26%) 41 older simulation, slightly different assumptions * Integrated scenario, supply share ** annualised costs sources: see

39 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 42

40 LCOE of alternatives are NO alternative Key insights PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-ccs is too expensive nuclear and coal-ccs are high risk technologies high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed 43 source: Agora Energiewende, Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option, Berlin

41 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives Summary 44

42 Summary 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable in Europe! super grid interconnection further decreases average cost of electricity of the total area from 66 /MWh (country/region-only) integration benefit of gas and desalination is about 6-9% (generation and cost ) due to more efficient usage of storage and flexibility options share of wind is about 55%, PV is about 25% despite an upper limit 50% higher than the current capacity for hydro dams and RoR, in all the considered scenarios PV and wind are more profitable technologies according to the availability of the regions resources 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option! 45

43 Thanks for your attention and to the team! The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the Neo-Carbon Energy project under the number 40101/14.

44 Back-up Slides

45 Results Energy flow of the System of region-wide open trade scenario (2030) Key insights: PV generation share 30.5%, Wind is the major energy source (35.0%) Throughput of Battery is equal to A-CAES storage and PHS throughput combined Throughput of Gas storage is over 4 times higher than A-CAES throughput 48

46 Results Energy flow of the System of area-wide open trade (2030) older simulation, slightly different assumptions Key insights: PV generation share 19.9%, Wind is the major energy source (45.6%) A-CAES storages are not used Gas storage is still feasible, gas storage throughput -58% compared to region-wide scenario 49

47 Results Resource utilization area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas older simulation, slightly different assumptions Area-wide open trade Area-wide open trade desalination gas Hydro dam total capacity 52 GW Hydro dam total capacity 54 GW Hydro RoR total capacity 141 GW Hydro RoR total capacity 141 GW Key insights: New hydro Run-of-River is not competitive to PV and wind 50 No increase in hydro RoR capacities for the area-wide open trade desalination-gas

48 Results Hourly profile: Finland (January, area integrated) 51

49 Results Hourly profile: Finland (March) 52

50 Wind & Temperature correlation Temperature dependence of wind power production and load in Finland Wind power production and load in Nordic countries as a function of temperatures in Finland in WILMAR Fluctuations and predictability of wind and hydropower,

51 Sustainable biomass resources 54 Region Solid waste Biomass potential [TWh LHV /a] Solid biomass Biogas sources Total NO DK SE FI BLT PL IBE FR BNL BRI DE CRS AUH BKN-W BKN-E IT CH TR UA IS Total area References: Biomass Futures Atlas of EU biomass potentials 2030 (2012) DBFZ - Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen 2020 (2009) Sustainability criteria applied: -80% GHG compared to fossil (iluc included) No biomass from areas of high biodiversity or high carbon stock, no energy crops Solid waste: Municipal used wood + industrial residues Solid biomass: Straw + Wood residues from forestry Biogas: biowaste + excrements